Foreign

Why India’s Modi failed to win outright majority

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2 years ago

June 5, 2024

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Indian PM Narendra Modi has won a third consecutive term in a much tighter general election than anticipated.

His Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) looks set to fall short of a majority and is leading in the 543-seat parliament, below the required 272 seats. However its coalition partners have gained additional seats.

The results are a personal blow to Mr Modi, who has always secured majorities in elections as both chief minister of Gujarat state and India’s prime minister, and dominated the country’s politics for a decade.

The verdict marks a surprising revival for the Congress Party-led INDIA opposition alliance, defying earlier predictions of its decline, and sharply diverging from both exit polls and pre-election surveys.

More than 640 million people voted in a marathon seven-week election, hailed as a “world record” by election authorities. Nearly half of the voters were women.

Many world leaders have crawled across the finishing line in their third term elections and Mr Modi is no exception. The BJP remains India’s single largest party by seats, and if Mr Modi secures a third term with his allies, the prime minister matches the record of Jawaharlal Nehru, India’s first premier.

But the significant loss of seats for his party – more than 50 – dims the allure of a third term, especially given Mr Modi’s campaign targeting 400 coalition seats, making anything less seem like an under-achievement.

This has led to jubilation in the Congress camp and some despair in BJP quarters. Despite the BJP emerging as the single largest party, the burden of hype and expectations has left many of their supporters disheartened.

Mr Modi’s supporters believe securing a third term can be attributed to several factors: a record of stable governance, the appeal of continuity, efficient welfare programmes, and the perception that he has enhanced India’s global image.

To his Hindu nationalist base, Mr Modi delivered on key manifesto promises: revoking the autonomy of Indian-administered Kashmir, building the Ram temple in Ayodhya and implementing a controversial citizenship law. Many BJP-ruled states have implemented laws tightening regulations on interfaith marriages.

The BJP’s significant drop in seats may be linked to joblessness, rising prices, growing inequality and a controversial army recruitment reform, among other things. Mr Modi’s harsh and divisive campaign, particularly targeting Muslims, could also have alienated voters in some regions.

His ambitious slogan “Ab ki baar, 400 paar,” aiming for more than 400 seats for his NDA alliance, may have backfired, with such a massive majority raising fears of constitutional changes among the poor.

Mr Modi’s party faced its largest setback in Uttar Pradesh (UP), a state larger than the United Kingdom and three times as populous. With 80 parliamentary seats, UP holds significant sway in national politics – many consider it the gateway to Delhi. Both Mr Modi and Rahul Gandhi hold seats there.

So what are the main takeaways of this election?

A dent of Brand Modi
Mr Modi’s popularity has been also attributed to his mastery of branding, transforming routine events into spectacles and astute messaging. A weak opposition and a largely friendly media also helped him build his brand.

The election results show that Brand Modi has lost some of its shine, indicating that even Mr Modi is susceptible to anti-incumbency. In other words, he is not as invincible as many of his supporters believed. This offers renewed hope to the opposition.

A return to coalition politics
India has a history of chaotic coalition governments, although some in the early 1990s and 2000s played a significant role in implementing economic reforms.

If the BJP forms the government, it will be dependent on allies and will need to adopt a more consultative and deliberative approach.

This dependency makes it vulnerable to collapse if allies feel neglected. The party, once perceived as all-powerful, is now reliant on allies, unlike in 2014 and 2019.

A jolt to the dominant BJP
Mr Modi’s uninterrupted decade-long reign at the top has underscored India’s embrace of what some political scientists term the one-party dominant system.

This has five key traits: a charismatic leader, unrivaled control over resources and communication, unmatched organisational machinery, and an opposition in disarray. Shrinking freedoms also characterise a one-party dominant system.

Mr Modi’s BJP is not the first party to dominate Indian politics. For many years after Independence the Congress ruled without a break. Tuesday’s result has restored India to what many consider “normal politics”, with a range of parties sharing and competing for power.

A resurgent opposition
The results will energise the much-criticised Congress-led opposition.

In February, the diverse coalition known as INDIA, short for Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance, faced turmoil when one of its key leaders, Nitish Kumar, exited – only to later rejoin the BJP.

But led by Rahul Gandhi, the opposition ran a spirited campaign and narrowed the gap, in the face of a partisan media and despite fewer resources.

There is more hope for them ahead. The BJP holds about a third of India’s 4,000- plus state assembly seats and has lost to regional parties before. Over the next 14 months, five states are set for elections – all could be keenly contested.

With contests in Maharashtra, Jharkhand, and Haryana this year, the BJP could face substantial competition. Delhi’s upcoming election may pose challenges, while Bihar in October presents a regional hurdle.

So what could a potential third term for Mr Modi mean?

India needs much more work and some healing.
The economy, fueled by government spending, is on the upswing. Yet inequality is rising. Private investment and consumption must increase, and the poor and the middle class will need more money in their pockets to spend more.

That will not happen if there are not enough jobs. In a country bristling with ambition and frustration, younger voters are likely to drift from the BJP – around two-fifths of India’s billion-plus people are under 25.

Mr Modi has drawn criticism for marginalising Muslims, India’s largest minority, who have borne the brunt of violence. His government faces accusations of stifling dissent, with leading opposition figures jailed on what they say are trumped-up charges.

But third terms have often proved to be rocky for many leaders, with unforeseen and unpredictable events blowing governments and their plans off course.

Foreign

Colombia earthquake death toll jumps to 111; president declares emergency

Published

9 hours ago

August 11, 2026

Admin

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Colombia on Monday declared a state of emergency following a powerful earthquake that caused at least 111 deaths and flattened dozens of buildings, trapping more victims underneath.

The 7.4-magnitude quake struck western Colombia at 7:34 am (1234 GMT) and triggered a frantic search for survivors in several cities.

“The national government is maintaining all its capacities deployed to protect lives, assist affected communities and deliver aid to every area that needs it,” President Abelardo de la Espriella stated from Bogota.

The leader appointed just three days ago reported 111 deaths, 87 people injured and over 1,000 buildings were damaged.

The quake’s epicenter was in Colombia’s coastal Choco region at a depth of 100 kilometers (60 miles). Authorities in the impoverished area reported 12 deaths.

The nearby city of Pereira was one of the worst-hit areas, with local authorities earlier announcing that at least 40 people had died in the Risaralda region of which it is the provincial capital.

The quake crumpled a tower of a beloved cathedral in the city of Manizales, an AFP journalist observed.

“A great many buildings” in the city sustained damage, said administrative worker Jaime Zuluaga, 50. “Traffic is paralyzed and people don’t want to go back to their homes for fear of an aftershock.”

– ‘Missing people’ –

At least 20 buildings crumbled in Colombia’s third-largest city, Cali, trapping people beneath the debris, Mayor Alejandro Eder said.

Choco’s governor warned of serious damage in the provincial capital Quibdo, where videos showed more buildings reduced to rubble.

“We are all devastated,” Quibdo community leader Luis Gregorio Moreno told AFP.

“At this moment there are reported deaths, dozens of wounded, but what there are most of are missing people,” he said.

Ecuador, Panama and Venezuela also felt the early-morning quake, which prompted building evacuations in the Colombian capital, Bogota.

Still wearing their pajamas, crowds of people rushed out into the street upon feeling the tremor, AFP reporters saw.

“The quake was very, very strong,” said content creator Valeria Polo, 29, in the capital, where only minimal damage was recorded.

Six small airports in western Colombia suspended operations, the civil aeronautics agency said, and the soccer governing body postponed upcoming football matches.

Washington is “closely monitoring the large earthquake that struck Colombia and stands ready to support the people of Colombia,” US Secretary of State Marco Rubio wrote on X.

European Union chief Ursula von der Leyen said the EU was “ready to provide more support” to the South American country.

“We have already mobilised Copernicus, our satellite service, to help with rescue operations,” she wrote on social media.

Israel, Mexico, Ecuador and France also offered assistance.

Latin America is already reeling from two disastrous quakes that struck Venezuela in June, killing more than 6,000 people and causing widespread destruction.

AFP

Foreign

Iran demands war damages compensation for reopening Strait of Hormuz

Published

2 days ago

August 9, 2026

Austin Ojomah

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Iran on Saturday gives conditions for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, including compensation for war damages, complicating a potential deal to open the waterway essential to the world economy.

Tehran has imposed an effective blockade of the strait since the United States and Israel struck Iran in late February, and wants to charge tolls for passage, attacking ships it accuses of attempting to circumvent its preferred route.

Continued attacks in the strait, which was free to transit before the war, led to the collapse of an April ceasefire. Mediators have since urged both sides to return to the terms of a June memorandum.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said discussions with Oman over transit and management of the strait were “approaching the final stages”, but added the reopening of Hormuz “is subject to other conditions and compensation for the violation” of the June agreement.

Security chief Mohammad Bagher Zolghadr on Saturday laid out a list of demands for reopening the strait, including an end to the “war and aggression against Iran and its allies in Lebanon, Palestine, Yemen, and Iraq”.

He also demanded the lifting of a parallel US naval blockade of Iran, the end of sanctions, the release of frozen assets and compensation for wartime damage, according to remarks reported by Tasnim news agency.

Iran’s Revolutionary Guards, meanwhile, said Hormuz’s reopening had “nothing to do with the negotiations between Iran and Oman”, adding that the “enemy is forced to accept Iran’s conditions for the opening of the strait”.

The comments came as transit through Hormuz has dropped significantly, with Iran targeting ships it accuses of skirting its preferred route through Iranian waters.

The United Arab Emirates’ foreign ministry on Saturday condemned what it called a “hostile Iranian attack that targeted a tanker belonging to ADNOC (Abu Dhabi National Oil Company) with a missile while it was transiting the Strait of Hormuz, without causing casualties”.

Later on Saturday, the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) said a ship was hit by a projectile off Oman in the Strait of Hormuz, causing a fire that was extinguished but no casualties. It was unclear whether they were referring to the same ship.

On Friday, ADNOC had put out a statement saying that since the start of the war, 15 of its vessels had been attacked in Hormuz, “including three vessels this week alone”.

Oman’s foreign ministry on Saturday condemned “repeated attacks on vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz”, without naming Iran.

It also said that “ongoing negotiations regarding navigation arrangements in the Strait of Hormuz are proceeding in a positive and constructive atmosphere”, and urged against any actions that might jeopardise the progress.

The previous Iran-US deal — meant to serve as a jumping-off point for negotiations on a permanent settlement — had said Iran and Oman would hash out future arrangements for the strait in discussion with other Gulf countries and “in line with the applicable international law”.

International law generally forbids tolling in such waterways.

Security agreement

Turkey’s foreign minister said Saturday he expected Egypt to join a joint defence agreement between Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan designed to stabilize the region, calling the country a “natural partner on all issues”.

“I believe that at the next stage Egypt will also be among us in the alliance. We already act toward one another as if we were alliance members,” Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said in an interview.

A drone struck US assets at an Egyptian port on the Mediterranean last month, marking the first drone attack on Egyptian territory since the outbreak of the Iran war.

Fidan said the agreement does not target a specific country.

“There is no common threat that we have put in writing,” he said, according to the news agency.

Pakistan’s foreign ministry said Friday the pact meant an attack on any member would be regarded as an attack on all, adding it was “intended to strengthen collective deterrence”.

AFP

Foreign

Spain imposes border checks on Italy over migrant dispute

Published

2 days ago

August 9, 2026

Admin

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Spain on Saturday started border checks on travellers arriving from Italy, responding to similar measures Rome imposed following an unprecedented migrant rush into the Spanish north African enclave of Ceuta.

“I don’t see a lot of the word ‘diplomacy’ used in these decisions, not by the Italian government, nor by the Spanish government,” said one 36-year-old Italian tourist, Maria Celeste Grillo, who had just flown into Madrid.

She said she had not seen any added checks as she stepped off the plane, but found their implementation “sad”.

Spain announced Friday it would proceed with the heightened controls, citing “persistent irregular migration pressure” facing Italy — deepening a row between the EU partners and NATO allies.

Spain’s left-wing government has complained that Italy’s hard-right government on July 31 unfairly imposed one month of border checks on travellers from Spain — suspending the EU’s Schengen Area visa-free travel arrangements — because of the Ceuta influx.

More than 70,000 migrants had crossed from Morocco into the Ceuta enclave on July 30 and 31, though almost all of them subsequently returned to Morocco within 48 hours.

The inflow alarmed European nations, especially right-wing ones urging tougher rules on irregular migrants. However, rules for Ceuta mean migrants cannot travel onward to continental Europe without passing another layer of border checks.

Spain’s interior ministry said the new checks on incoming travellers from Italy would apply until September 7.

AFP