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Ways & Means hike: CBN may loan over N746bn to FG

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The Central Bank of Nigeria may print or wire over N746bn as a loan to the Federal Government based on the Ways and Means provision of the CBN Act.

In the Act, funds that the apex bank should provide to the Federal Government through Ways and Means is five per cent of the Federal Government’s previous year’s revenue.

Last week, the National Assembly raised the maximum borrowing percentage in the Act from five per cent to ten per cent.

Data from the National Bureau of Statistics on Saturday indicated that as of the third quarter of 2023, the Federal Government’s actual aggregate revenue was N7.46tn.

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Based on the hike in Ways and Means funding approved by the National Assembly, the Federal Government would get no less than N746bn from the apex bank through the funding scheme.

The Ways and Means Advances are loan facilities used by the CBN to finance the government during periods of temporary budget shortfalls and are subject to limits imposed by law.

According to Section 38 of the CBN Act, 2007, the apex bank may grant temporary advances to the Federal Government with regards to temporary deficiency of budget revenue at such rate of interest as the bank may determine.

The Act read in part, “The total amount of such advances outstanding shall not at any time exceed five per cent of the previous year’s actual revenue of the Federal Government.”

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The maximum borrowing percentage in the Act was hiked from five per cent to ten per cent by lawmakers last week, as they also rescinded and re-enacted the 2024 Appropriation Act through an amendment bill sponsored by leaders of both chambers.

In the Senate, the increase in the threshold was achieved through the consideration and passage of a bill sponsored by its Leader, Senator Opeyemi Bamidele (APC Ekiti Central).

In his lead debate, Senator Bamidele explained that the bill seeks to amend the CBN Act to increase the total CBN advances to the Federal Government.

He stated that the bill aims to help the government meet its immediate and future obligations due to the increasing need for funds to finance budget deficits and other expenses.

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“The Central Bank of Nigeria’s advances to the Federal Government are essentially loans that the Central Bank of Nigeria provides to the government to help it meet its financial obligations. These advances are typically short-term and are expected to be repaid by the government,” he said.

Senator Bamidele explained that the request to increase the threshold from five per cent to fifteen per cent of the previous year’s revenue was made to provide immediate funds to address budget shortfalls, finance essential government expenditures, maintain financial market stability, inject money into the economy, and support critical sectors like agriculture, healthcare, and infrastructure development.

He said this would also lower government borrowing costs compared to traditional borrowing methods.

During the debate, many Senators supported the amendment but argued that the 15 per cent should be reduced to ten per cent.

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However, the Federal Government had in the past taken excessive advantage of Ways and Means loans.

The administration of former President, Major General Muhammadu Buhari (retd.), had come under heavy criticism for abusing the Ways and Means.

From 2014 to 2023, the Federal Government collected N30tn through Ways and Means from the CBN without National Assembly appropriation.

Following this, the Senate set up an Ad-hoc committee led by Senator Isah Jibrin (APC, Kogi East), to carry out investigations.

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Commenting on the development, financial analysts said the CBN would have to print more cash to meet the demands for increased funds through the Ways and Means advances, pointing out that this could further raise inflation.

An economist, Paul Alaje, expressed concern over the increase in Ways and Means advances to the Federal Government from five to ten per cent.

He said the move would lead to increased pressure on the CBN to print more money, potentially affecting the economy adversely.

Another economist at Lotus Beta Analytics, Shadrach Israel, also expressed concern over the recent increase, noting that it could lead to an increase in money supply and, subsequently, inflation.

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He, however, acknowledged that the current upward trend in interest rates might mitigate the effects of the increase.

Recall that the Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of Economy, Wale Edun, said the N22.7tn printed by the CBN through Ways and Means overdraft for the Federal Government from 2015 to 2023, under former President Buhari, threw the country into the current inflation.

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Economy

Dangote Refinery, NNPCL resume fight over $1bn loan

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Dangote Group, owners of Dangote Refinery, and the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited, NNPCL, have clashed over a $1 billion crude oil-backed loan.

Recall that barely 24 hours ago, in a statement credited to NNPCL spokesperson Olufemi Soneye, the state-owned oil firm said it secured a $1 billion loan backed by crude to support the Dangote Refinery during liquidity challenges.

However, Dangote Group spokesperson, Anthony Chijiena, has described NNPCL’s claim as ‘misinformation’.

The company clarified that the $1 billion crude backed loan is about five percent of the total investment that went into building the 650,000 barrels per day refinery.

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According to him, it is inaccurate to say NNPCL facilitated $1 billion for Dangote Refinery amid liquidity challenges.

Chijiena explained that NNPCL had proposed a 20 percent stake investment valued at $2.76 billion in the Dangote Refinery, but that didn’t materialise.

He noted that NNPCL was able to invest $1 billion, which amounts to 7.24 percent equity value.

“Our decision to enter into a partnership with NNPCL was based on recognition of their strategic position in the industry as the largest offtaker of Nigerian crude and, at the time, the sole supplier of gasoline into Nigeria.

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“We agreed on the sale of a 20 percent stake at a value of $2.76 billion. Of this, we agreed that they will only pay $1 billion while the balance will be recovered over a period of 5 years through deductions on crude oil that they supply to us and from dividends due to them.

“If we were struggling with liquidity challenges, we wouldn’t have given them such generous payment terms.

“As of 2021, when the agreement was signed, the refinery was at the pre-commission stage. In addition, if we were struggling with liquidity issues, this agreement would have been cash-based rather than credit-driven.

“Unfortunately, NNPCL was later unable to supply the agreed 300 thousand barrels a day of crude, given that they had committed a greater part of their crude cargoes to financiers with the expectation of higher production, which they were unable to achieve.

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“We subsequently gave them a 12-month period for them to pay cash for the balance of their equity given their
inability to supply the agreed crude oil volume.

“NNPCL failed to meet this deadline, which expired on June 30th, 2024. As a result, their equity share was revised down to 7.24 percent. These events have been widely reported by both parties.

“It is, therefore, inaccurate to claim that NNPCL facilitated a $1 billion investment amid liquidity challenges.

“Like all business partners, NNPCL invested $1 billion in the refinery to acquire an ownership stake of 7.24 percent. That is beneficial to its interests,” the Dangote Group statement said.

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Economy

Nigeria’s National Bureau of Statistics Website Hacked

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The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) on Wednesday announced that its official website has been hacked.

The bureau disclosed this on its X handle.

The NBS announced that it is currently working to recover the website and urged the public to disregard any messages or reports posted on the site until it is fully restored.

“This is to inform the public that the NBS Website has been hacked and we are working to recover it. Please disregard any message or report posted until the website is fully restored. Thank you,” the NBS said.

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The NBS is the principal agency responsible for the collection, analysis, and dissemination of statistical data in Nigeria.

The statistics office has recently published several key reports such as the Nigerian Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Report Q3 2024, which provides an update on Nigeria’s economic growth and performance, the Nigeria Labour Force Survey (NLFS) report for Q2 2024, which offers insights into Nigeria’s labor market, including employment and unemployment rates and the Consumer Price Index November 2024, which provides the latest information on Nigeria’s inflation rate, among others.

In November, the NBS said Nigeria’s GDP grew by 3.46 per cent year-on-year in real terms in the third quarter of 2024.

The NBS said this growth rate is higher than the 2.54 per cent recorded in the third quarter of 2023 and higher than the second quarter of 2024 growth of 3.19 per cent.

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On Monday, the NBS said Nigeria’s annual inflation rate rose to 34.60 per cent in November from 33.88 per cent in October.

This marks a continuation of the upward trend observed in September, when the nation recorded a reversal of a two-month decline.

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Economy

UK inflation rises further ahead of Bank of England rates decision

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UK inflation climbed to 2.6% in November, up from 2.3% in October, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS).

The rise matches market expectations and comes as the Bank of England prepares for its upcoming decision on interest rates later this week.

Core inflation, which excludes volatile items such as food and energy, also increased to 3.5% from 3.3% in October. However, this was slightly below the anticipated figure of 3.6%. Services inflation, closely watched by the Bank of England for signs of domestic price pressures, remained steady at 5%, slightly below market expectations of 5.1%.

Earlier this year, falling inflation allowed the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to lower interest rates in August and November. The headline rate dropped to 1.7% in September but has since been pushed higher by rising energy costs and persistent services inflation.

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Despite the recent uptick, the Bank of England is widely expected to keep interest rates on hold at its meeting this week. Markets remain divided on whether a rate cut will come at the February meeting.

Michael Brown, senior research strategist at Pepperstone, highlighted the challenges ahead. “While risks to this base case are tilted towards a more dovish outcome, given increasing signs of overall economic momentum stalling, policymakers will be rapidly seeking convincing signs of disinflationary progress being made, as the economic cocktail facing UK Plc. increasingly becomes a stagflationary one,” he said.

The inflation figures follow Tuesday’s data showing stronger-than-expected wage growth. Average earnings, including bonuses, rose by 5.2%, exceeding the 4.6% forecast and October’s figure of 4.4%.

Chancellor to the Exchequer Rachel Reeves acknowledged the ongoing struggles faced by households. “I know families are still struggling with the cost of living and today’s figures are a reminder that for too long the economy has not worked for working people,” she said.

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Reeves outlined recent measures aimed at supporting workers, including no increases to national insurance, income tax, or VAT, as well as boosting the national living wage by £1,400 and freezing fuel duty. “Since we arrived, real wages have grown at their fastest in three years. That’s an extra £20 a week after inflation. But I know there is more to do. I want working people to be better off, which is what our Plan for Change will deliver,” she added.

Inflation is expected to rise further in the coming year as the UK continues to take a more gradual approach to easing monetary policy compared to other developed central banks.

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