In Kano State, the battle for the governorship seat is between the ruling party, All Progressive Congress, APC, and the fast-growing opposition party, New Nigeria People's Party, NNPP. No doubt, it will be a fight to finish as it is going to be a replay of the 2019 election between Governor Abdullahi Umar Ganduje's of APC, and Sen. Rabi'u Musa Kwankwaso's of NNPP formerly of the Peoples Democratic Party, PDP.
Similarly, at that time, the PDP Guber candidate and now flag bearer of the NNPP, Abba Kabir Yusuf, contested against the sitting Governor, Ganduje, who was seeking his second term bid, but this time around against Ganduje's anointed candidate and incumbent Deputy Governor, Nasiru Yusuf Gawuna.
What will work for NNPP?
1) Presidential/NASS polls outcome factor:
The 2023 Presidential and National Assembly elections results may affect the governorship and state assembly polls because Kano State was the only state won by the NNPP's Kwankwaso in the Presidential election and the NNPP's tsunami also swept 2 of 3 Senate seats and 18 out of 24 House of Representatives seats in the state.
Although, that may not be the case going by the 2019 experience where the APC's Muhammadu Buhari won the Presidential election in the state with a wide margin against the PDP's Atiku Abubakar but the governorship ran into an inconclusive election where the incumbent was giving fight for his money before he was returned for his second term.
2) Empowerment and Scholarship
The Scholarship scheme by Kwankwaso is a plus that will work for the NNPP.
Youth and Women empowerment is also a plus to NNPP.
3) Revoke of alleged misused, carve out lands by serving Governor
This will work for the NNPP as it is believed by many (traders and residents) that it is the party that can revoke all alleged misused, and carve out of lands (schools, markets, and Eid praying ground) allocated by the serving governor.
What will work against NNPP?
1) Rumour of alleged plan to reverse newly created emirate
It is rumoured that if the NNPP clinch power they will return the state to one emirate and reverse the newly created additional five Emirates, although, the NNPP has often at any given time denied this.
What will work against APC?
1) Anointment / Preferred candidates
The fact that Governor Abdullahi Umar Ganduje anointed his Deputy, Nasiru Yusuf Gawuna as his successor almost tore apart the party before peace was later attained. The current running mate of Gawuna, Murtala Sule Garo (Ganduje's former Commissioner of Local Government) wanted the party's flag bearer but after a lot of pacifying let go of the ambition.
The former speaker, Kano State House of Assembly, Alhassan Rurum couldn't withstand the decision and so defected from the party while the House of Representatives member representing Kano Municipal Federal Constituency, Sha'aban Ibrahim Sharada, challenged the decision by contesting against the governor's anointed candidate in the party primaries. He later defected from the party and picked the Action Democratic Party, ADP Gubernatorial ticket for the election.
It was also the same scenario for other positions, which made some party to defect to other parties to pursue their political ambition.
2) Clamour for power to move to Kano South
There was clamour by some quarters in Kano South Senatorial district for power to shift to the zone on the ground that the zone has not produced a governor nor deputy governor since the return to democracy and that it couldn't see the light of the day with the Governor's anointment of his Deputy and forced some of the party Chieftain, particularly from the zone to switch their loyalty to Kwankwaso's NNPP.
3) Gale of Defection
Some bigwigs in the party who defected due to the aforementioned or other grievances include, Sen. Ibrahim Shekarau, Ganduje's Chief of Staff, Ali Makoda, Abdulmumini Jibrin Kofa, Abdurrahman Kawu Sumaila, Alhassan Rurum, Abdulkadir Tijjani Jobe, Muhyi Rimingado, Nura Dankadai, Nazifi Suleiman Sani Mainagge among others.
4) Pensioners and gratuity
The deduction of Pensioners' pensions and non-payment of gratuity is something that will work against the APC.
What will work for APC?
1) Power of incumbency
The fact that APC is the incumbent, make them enjoy the power of incumbency and the state resources at their disposal.
2) LG structure factor
With Gawuna as a former Chairman of Nassarawa LGA in the state and his running mate, Murtala Sule Garo as former ALGON Chairman and Commissioner of Local Government, makes them stand a better chance in terms of owning and controlling the existing Local Government structure to a large extent, although they couldn't play any role in the Presidential election.
3) Gawuna's maturity appeal to Kano elites
The maturity displayed by Gawuna made him humble and appealing to the elites in the state. Similarly, his words during campaigns that he believes in predestination are another factor that proved to the elites an element of maturity in him.
4) Civil servants take home pay
This will work for APC as the workers get paid as of when due.
PDP's Wali, and ADP's Sha'aban, among others to watch the poll
The People's Democratic Party, PDP would have been seen as the third force but the running legal battle and the Supreme Court verdict reaffirming Sadiq Aminu Wali, the son of former Nigerian ambassador, Aminu Wali, made the chances of the party slim. Although, he has expressed optimism to win at the next Saturday's election.
Another candidate and party which is seen as an underdog is the Action Democratic Party, ADP's Guber candidate, Sha'aban Ibrahim Sharada but could take the people off guard as he's loved by youths and women.
Besides, Sharada, as Chairman, House Committee on National Security and Intelligence, has the war load chest.
In the main time, Four governorship candidates, Young Progressive Party (YPP), Dr. Yakubu Uba Muhammad, Booth Party (BP), Furera Ahmad, National Reformation Party (NRM), Ashatu Mahmud, All People's Party (APP), Ibrahim Muhammad while the Deputy Governorship candidate of All Progressive Grand Alliance (APGA), Abdulsalam Gwarmai dumped their ambition to join forces with Sha'aban.