Economy
Nigeria’s inflation rate to remain high in 2024 — World Bank
The World Bank, yesterday, said that Nigeria’s inflation rate will remain high at 24.8 percent year-on-year, YoY, in 2024.
The World Bank’s projection, however, is lower than February 2024 inflation, which stood at 31.7 percent.
The World Bank also reaffirmed its projection of 3.3 percent economic growth for the country in 2024 and reduced its projection for 2025 to 2026 by 0.1 percentage points to 3.6 percent from its January projection of 3.7 percent.
In its Africa’s Pulse Report, April 2024 edition, released yesterday, the Bretton Woods institution stated: “Growth in Nigeria is projected at 3.3 percent in 2024 and 3.6 percent in 2025–26 as macroeconomic and fiscal reforms gradually start to yield results.
“A more stable macroeconomic environment, as the reforms’ initial shock dissipates, will lead to sustained but still slow growth of the non-oil economy.
“The oil sector is expected to stabilize with recovery in production and slightly lower prices. “Structural reforms will be needed to foster higher growth.
“Average inflation will remain elevated at 24.8 percent in 2024, although it is expected to ease gradually to 15.1 percent by 2026 on the back of monetary policy tightening and exchange rate stabilization”.
According to the World Bank, food inflation and the weakening of domestic currencies are still major drivers of inflation across countries in the Sub Saharan Africa region.
It added: “By February 2024, about one third of the Sub-Saharan African countries with monthly available food price information (14 of 40 countries) had double-digit year-on-year rates of food inflation, with the fastest increases experienced in Ethiopia, Malawi, Nigeria, Sierra Leone, and Zimbabwe.”
It also noted that the rate of poverty reduction in the region is slow and that Nigeria and the Democratic Republic of Congo account for one in three of those living in extreme poverty.
“The region also faces the triple challenges of high extreme poverty, high inequality, and low transmission of growth to poverty reduction.
“The speed of poverty reduction has decreased tremendously since 2014. The rate of reduction was 3.1 percent between 2010 and 2014, subsequently decreasing to 1.2 percent between 2014 and 2019.
“In contrast, the rest of the world reduced extreme poverty on average by 9.2 percent per year within the same time horizon, suggesting that the Africa region is falling further behind.
“In addition, there is substantial regional heterogeneity in where the poor are with Nigeria and the Democratic Republic of Congo accounting for one in three of those living in extreme poverty.”
It added that the region can accelerate growth and poverty reduction substantially by tackling inequality, specifically structural inequality.
Economy
FG reaffirms support for NNPC Limited’s 100,000 barrels per day production
The Honourable Minister of State for Petroleum Resources (Oil), Senator Heineken Lokpobiri, has reaffirmed the Federal Government of Nigeria’s commitment to supporting the NNPC Limited/FIRST Exploration; Petroleum Development Company Limited (FIRST E&P) Joint Venture (JV) in achieving its ambitious target of producing 100,000 barrels of oil per day (BOPD).
The Minister made this declaration during a comprehensive engagement with the JV, which included a tour of its offshore drilling and production facilities in the Niger-Delta.
The two-day visit was designed to provide the Honourable Minister firsthand insight into the JV’s operations and underscore its contributions to Nigeria’s energy security and transition goals.
Head, Joint Venture Investment Management, NNPC Upstream Investment Management Service(NUIMS), Mr. Olanrewaju Igandan; Minister of State, Petroleum Resources(Oil), Senator Heineken Lokpobiri; Managing Director, FIRST E&P Development Company Limited, Ademola Adeyemi-Bero and Managing Director, First Marine and Engineering Services Ltd, Joseph Penawou during the tour of Ogu Base logistics in Yenagoa Bayelsa State
The visit commenced with a tour of the Abigail-Joseph, the JV’s Floating Production Storage and Offloading (FPSO) vessel, followed by inspections of the Anyala OML 83 and Madu OML 85 Conductor Supported Platforms (CSPs) on Tuesday, November 19, 2024. The Minister’s itinerary also included a visit to the JV’s Ogu Logistics Base and a Host Community Stakeholders Engagement meeting in Yenagoa, Bayelsa State.
Describing his tour as quite strategic to Nigeria, the Minister disclosed that by meeting this ambitious 100,000 BOPD target, the JV would be helping the Federal Government achieve its production goal of 2.5 million BOPD by 2025. The Minister also praised FIRST E&P for its role in Nigeria’s recent achievement of 1.8 million BOPD and highlighted the strategic significance of the company’s operations to national growth.
During an engagement held with the Minister, FIRST E& P’s Managing Director, Ademola Adeyemi-Bero, reaffirmed the company’s commitment to supporting the Federal Government in achieving its target by maximising production, optimising efficiency, and contributing to Nigeria’s energy security through the NNPCL/FIRST E&P JV partnership. “For a nation like Nigeria, where oil and gas remain critical drivers of socio-economic growth, ensuring a sustainable energy supply is essential for industrialization, economic diversification, and improving the quality of life for millions. At FIRST E&P, our vision is strongly aligned with the national priorities for production. With a steady output of 56,000 BOPD, we are focused on achieving our medium-term target of surpassing 100,000 BOPD”, stated Adeyemi-Bero.
Bala Wunti, the Chief Upstream Investment Officer of NNPC Upstream Investment Management Services (NUIMS), represented by Olanrewaju Igandan, Head of Joint Venture Investment Management at NUIMS, applauded FIRST E&P and its partners for their remarkable achievements over the past decade. He highlighted that since achieving first oil in 2020, the partnership has produced over 50 million barrels of oil, significantly contributing to national revenue through royalties, taxes, and host community development initiatives.
While commending the JV, the Bayelsa State Governor, Douye Diri represented by Chief of Staff, Dr. Peter Akpe, called for greater collaboration between the Federal Government, oil companies, and state authorities to boost production.
Speaking during the Host Community Stakeholders Engagement meeting, Chairman, KEFFESO Host Communities Development Trust (KHCDT), Amadabo of Moko-ama, Sangana Kingdom, His Royal Highness Moses Theophilus, commended the management of the JV for their invaluable support to the host communities through various initiatives in the areas of education, health care, and human capital development.
Lokpobiri commended the JVs host communities for creating a peaceful and supportive environment that has enabled the company to operate smoothly without disruptions. He urged the communities to continue their collaboration with the company, emphasizing that their support is crucial for increasing production and achieving the ambitious targets set. Reassuring stakeholders, he reaffirmed the Federal Government’s commitment to enhancing Nigeria’s investment climate and ensuring the nation remains globally competitive in the oil and gas sector.
Economy
FG services foreign debt with $3.5bn
The Federal Government spent $3.58 billion servicing its foreign debt in the first nine months of 2024, representing a 39.77 per cent increase from the $2.56bn spent during the same period in 2023.
This is according to data from the Central Bank of Nigeria on international payment statistics.
The significant rise in external debt service payments shows the mounting pressure on Nigeria’s fiscal balance amid ongoing economic challenges.
Data from CBN’s international payment statistics reveal that the highest monthly debt servicing payment in 2024 occurred in May, amounting to $854.37m.
In comparison, the highest monthly expenditure in 2023 was $641.70m, recorded in July. The sharp contrast in May’s figures between the two years ($854.37m in 2024 versus $221.05m in 2023) highlights the rising cost of debt obligations, as Nigeria battles massive devaluation of the naira.
The CBN showed significant month-on-month changes in debt servicing costs, with some months recording sharp increases compared to the previous year. A breakdown of the data revealed varied trends across the nine months.
In January 2024, debt servicing costs surged by 398.89 per cent, rising to $560.52m from $112.35m in January 2023. February, however, saw a slight decline of 1.84 per cent, with payments reducing from $288.54m in 2023 to $283.22m in 2024.
March recorded a 31.04 per cent drop in payments, falling to $276.17m from $400.47m in the same period last year. April saw a significant rise of 131.77 per cent, with $215.20m paid in 2024 compared to $92.85m in 2023.
The highest debt servicing payment occurred in May 2024, when $854.37m was spent, reflecting a 286.52 per cent increase compared to $221.05m in May 2023. June, on the other hand, saw a 6.51 per cent decline, with $50.82m paid in 2024, down from $54.36m in 2023.
July 2024 recorded a 15.48 per cent reduction, with payments dropping to $542.50m from $641.70m in July 2023. In August, there was another decline of 9.69 per cent, as $279.95m was paid compared to $309.96m in 2023. However, September 2024 saw a 17.49 per cent increase, with payments rising to $515.81m from $439.06m in the same month last year.
The data raises concerns about the growing pressure of Nigeria’s foreign debt obligations, with rising global interest rates and exchange rate fluctuations contributing to higher costs.
The global credit ratings agency, Fitch, recently projected Nigeria’s external debt servicing will rise to $5.2bn next year.
This is despite the current administration’s insistence on focusing more on domestic borrowings from the capital market.
It also estimated that approximately 30 per cent of Nigeria’s external reserves are constituted by foreign exchange bank swaps.
Regarding external debt, the agency said external financing obligation
The Federal Government spent $3.58 billion servicing its foreign debt in the first nine months of 2024, representing a 39.77 per cent increase from the $2.56bn spent during the same period in 2023.
This is according to data from the Central Bank of Nigeria on international payment statistics.
The significant rise in external debt service payments shows the mounting pressure on Nigeria’s fiscal balance amid ongoing economic challenges.
Data from CBN’s international payment statistics reveal that the highest monthly debt servicing payment in 2024 occurred in May, amounting to $854.37m.
In comparison, the highest monthly expenditure in 2023 was $641.70m, recorded in July. The sharp contrast in May’s figures between the two years ($854.37m in 2024 versus $221.05m in 2023) highlights the rising cost of debt obligations, as Nigeria battles massive devaluation of the naira.
The CBN showed significant month-on-month changes in debt servicing costs, with some months recording sharp increases compared to the previous year. A breakdown of the data revealed varied trends across the nine months.
In January 2024, debt servicing costs surged by 398.89 per cent, rising to $560.52m from $112.35m in January 2023. February, however, saw a slight decline of 1.84 per cent, with payments reducing from $288.54m in 2023 to $283.22m in 2024.
March recorded a 31.04 per cent drop in payments, falling to $276.17m from $400.47m in the same period last year. April saw a significant rise of 131.77 per cent, with $215.20m paid in 2024 compared to $92.85m in 2023.
The highest debt servicing payment occurred in May 2024, when $854.37m was spent, reflecting a 286.52 per cent increase compared to $221.05m in May 2023. June, on the other hand, saw a 6.51 per cent decline, with $50.82m paid in 2024, down from $54.36m in 2023.
July 2024 recorded a 15.48 per cent reduction, with payments dropping to $542.50m from $641.70m in July 2023. In August, there was another decline of 9.69 per cent, as $279.95m was paid compared to $309.96m in 2023. However, September 2024 saw a 17.49 per cent increase, with payments rising to $515.81m from $439.06m in the same month last year.
The data raises concerns about the growing pressure of Nigeria’s foreign debt obligations, with rising global interest rates and exchange rate fluctuations contributing to higher costs.
The global credit ratings agency, Fitch, recently projected Nigeria’s external debt servicing will rise to $5.2bn next year.
This is despite the current administration’s insistence on focusing more on domestic borrowings from the capital market.
It also estimated that approximately 30 per cent of Nigeria’s external reserves are constituted by foreign exchange bank swaps.
Regarding external debt, the agency said external financing obligations through a combination of multilateral lending, syndicated loans, and potentially commercial borrowing will raise the servicing from $4.8bn in 2024 to $5.2bn in 2025.
The anticipated servicing includes $2.9bn of amortisations, including a $1.1bn Eurobond repayment due in November.
The Small and Medium Enterprises Development Agency and economists have stated that the rise in Nigeria’s public debt might create macroeconomic challenges, especially if the debt service burden continues to grow.
The Chief Executive Officer of the Centre for the Promotion of Public Enterprises, Dr Muda Yusuf, explained that the situation could lead to a vicious circle, warning that “we don’t end up in a debt trap.”
He said, “I think there is a need for us to be very conscious of and watch the rate of growth of our public debt. Because it could create macro-economic challenges especially if the burden of debt service continues to grow.”
He maintained that there is a need for the government to reduce the exposure to foreign debts because the number has grown so due to the exchange rate.s through a combination of multilateral lending, syndicated loans, and potentially commercial borrowing will raise the servicing from $4.8bn in 2024 to $5.2bn in 2025.
The anticipated servicing includes $2.9bn of amortisations, including a $1.1bn Eurobond repayment due in November.
The Small and Medium Enterprises Development Agency and economists have stated that the rise in Nigeria’s public debt might create macroeconomic challenges, especially if the debt service burden continues to grow.
The Chief Executive Officer of the Centre for the Promotion of Public Enterprises, Dr Muda Yusuf, explained that the situation could lead to a vicious circle, warning that “we don’t end up in a debt trap.”
He said, “I think there is a need for us to be very conscious of and watch the rate of growth of our public debt. Because it could create macro-economic challenges especially if the burden of debt service continues to grow.”
He maintained that there is a need for the government to reduce the exposure to foreign debts because the number has grown so due to the exchange rate.
Economy
Oil imports drop by $1.52bn in Q2/24 – says CBN
Nigeria’s oil importation dropped to $2.79bn from $4.31bn in Q2 of 2024. This amounts to $1.52bn decline or a 35 per cent decline.
This development was contained in the Central Bank of Nigeria’s quarterly economic report for the second quarter of 2024 released recently.
This reduction highlights shifting dynamics in the nation’s oil and gas sector amid ongoing structural and economic adjustments following the removal of fuel subsidies under the administration of President Bola Tinubu.
The report also noted that the overall value of merchandise imports contracted, falling by 20.59 per cent to $8.64bn from $10.88bn recorded in Q1 2024.
The sharp decline in oil imports contributed significantly to this trend, the report noted.
The report reads: “Merchandise import decreased in Q2 2024, following the decline in the import of petroleum products. Merchandise imports decreased by 20.59 per cent to $8.64bn, from $10.88bn in Q12024.
“Analysis by composition indicated that oil imports decreased to $2.79bn, from $4.31bn in the preceding quarter.
“Non-oil imports also declined to $5.85bn, from $6.57bn in the previous quarter. A breakdown of total import showed that non-oil imports accounted for 67.72 per cent, while oil imports constituted the balance.”
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