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Nigeria’s inflation rate to remain high in 2024 — World Bank

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The World Bank, yesterday, said that Nigeria’s inflation rate will remain high at 24.8 percent year-on-year, YoY, in 2024.

The World Bank’s projection, however, is lower than February 2024 inflation, which stood at 31.7 percent.

The World Bank also reaffirmed its projection of 3.3 percent economic growth for the country in 2024 and reduced its projection for 2025 to 2026 by 0.1 percentage points to 3.6 percent from its January projection of 3.7 percent.

In its Africa’s Pulse Report, April 2024 edition, released yesterday, the Bretton Woods institution stated: “Growth in Nigeria is projected at 3.3 percent in 2024 and 3.6 percent in 2025–26 as macroeconomic and fiscal reforms gradually start to yield results.

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“A more stable macroeconomic environment, as the reforms’ initial shock dissipates, will lead to sustained but still slow growth of the non-oil economy.

“The oil sector is expected to stabilize with recovery in production and slightly lower prices. “Structural reforms will be needed to foster higher growth.

“Average inflation will remain elevated at 24.8 percent in 2024, although it is expected to ease gradually to 15.1 percent by 2026 on the back of monetary policy tightening and exchange rate stabilization”.

According to the World Bank, food inflation and the weakening of domestic currencies are still major drivers of inflation across countries in the Sub Saharan Africa region.

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It added: “By February 2024, about one third of the Sub-Saharan African countries with monthly available food price information (14 of 40 countries) had double-digit year-on-year rates of food inflation, with the fastest increases experienced in Ethiopia, Malawi, Nigeria, Sierra Leone, and Zimbabwe.”

It also noted that the rate of poverty reduction in the region is slow and that Nigeria and the Democratic Republic of Congo account for one in three of those living in extreme poverty.

“The region also faces the triple challenges of high extreme poverty, high inequality, and low transmission of growth to poverty reduction.

“The speed of poverty reduction has decreased tremendously since 2014. The rate of reduction was 3.1 percent between 2010 and 2014, subsequently decreasing to 1.2 percent between 2014 and 2019.

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“In contrast, the rest of the world reduced extreme poverty on average by 9.2 percent per year within the same time horizon, suggesting that the Africa region is falling further behind.

“In addition, there is substantial regional heterogeneity in where the poor are with Nigeria and the Democratic Republic of Congo accounting for one in three of those living in extreme poverty.”

It added that the region can accelerate growth and poverty reduction substantially by tackling inequality, specifically structural inequality.

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Economy

Overview of Dollar to Naira Exchange Rate: Key Insights, Trends as of March 11, 2025

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Understanding the dynamics of the foreign exchange market is crucial for individuals and businesses engaged in international transactions. The exchange rate between the U.S. Dollar (USD) and the Nigerian Naira (NGN) has experienced notable fluctuations in recent times. This article provides an overview of the current exchange rates, historical trends, and factors influencing these changes as of Tuesday, March 11, 2025.

Current Exchange Rates

As of March 11, 2025, the exchange rates are as follows:

Date Official Exchange Rate (USD to NGN): 1 USD = 1,559.65 NGN

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Black Market Rate (USD to NGN): 1 USD = 1,561.00 NGN11-03-2025

Note: The official exchange rate is sourced from historical data, while the black market rate is based on user-reported information.

Recent Trends and Fluctuations

Over the past week, the USD/NGN exchange rate has exhibited the following movements:

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High: 1 USD = 1,559.65 NGN on 11-03-2025
Low: 1 USD = 1,493.99 NGN on 04-03-2025

The most significant 24-hour change occurred on 11-03-2025, with a 2.118% increase in value. 

Factors Influencing the Exchange Rate

Several factors have contributed to the recent fluctuations in the USD/NGN exchange rate:

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Oil Prices: Nigeria’s economy is heavily reliant on oil exports. Variations in global oil prices directly impact foreign exchange earnings, influencing the Naira’s value.

Inflation Rates: Higher domestic inflation can erode the Naira’s purchasing power, leading to depreciation against the USD.

Monetary Policy: Decisions by the Central Bank of Nigeria regarding interest rates and foreign exchange interventions play a pivotal role in stabilizing the Naira.

Political Stability: Political events and policy decisions can affect investor confidence, thereby impacting currency value.

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Implications for Stakeholders
Importers and Exporters: Fluctuating exchange rates can affect the cost of goods and services, influencing profit margins.

Investors: Currency volatility may impact returns on investments denominated in foreign currencies.

General Public: Exchange rate movements can affect the prices of imported goods, thereby influencing the cost of living.

Conclusion

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Staying informed about exchange rate trends is essential for effective financial planning and decision-making. As of March 11, 2025, the USD to NGN exchange rate reflects both global economic conditions and domestic factors. Individuals and businesses are advised to monitor these trends closely and consult financial experts when making currency-related decisions.

Disclaimer: Exchange rates are subject to continuous change.

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Economy

See list:  China, India lead as Nigeria’s major trading partners Q4, 2024

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China and India have emerged as Nigeria’s largest sources of imports in 2024.

According to the latest trade report from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), China remains Nigeria’s top import partner, while India follows.

The bulk of these imports include electronics, machinery, textiles, and industrial equipment, which are crucial to Nigeria’s manufacturing and technology sectors.

India’s contributions are particularly significant in pharmaceuticals, industrial raw materials, and processed food products.

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A breakdown of Q4 2024 trade data highlights China’s continued dominance in Nigeria’s import market.

The top five sources of imports for the fourth quarter were:

China – N4.61 trillion (27.80% of total imports)
India – N1.90 trillion (11.43%)
Belgium – N1.39 trillion (8.35%)
United States – N1.06 trillion (6.36%)
France – N601.28 billion (3.62%)

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Economy

Nigeria’s international trade hit N36.6tn in Q4 2024 – NBS

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Nigeria’s total merchandise trade recorded significant growth in the fourth quarter of 2024, driven by a sharp rise in imports and steady export performance.

According to the latest Foreign Trade in Goods Statistics report released by the National Bureau of Statistics on Saturday, total trade for the period stood at N36.6tn, representing a 68.3 per cent increase from the corresponding quarter in 2023 and a 2.2 per cent rise from the third quarter of 2024.

Despite maintaining a trade surplus, the country’s trade balance declined significantly.

The surplus for the quarter stood at N3.42tn, reflecting a 34.9 per cent drop from the previous quarter.

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The decline was largely attributed to the continued increase in imports and a marginal drop in export earnings.

The NBS report stated, “Nigeria’s total merchandise trade stood at N36,604.83bn in Q4 2024. This represents an increase of 68.32 per cent compared to the value (N21,747.40bn) recorded in the corresponding period of 2023 and a rise of 2.20 per cent over the value recorded in the preceding quarter (N35,818.35bn).”

Total exports in Q4 2024 were valued at N20.01tn, marking a 57.7 per cent increase compared to the same period in 2023.

However, exports declined by 2.55 per cent from the N20.54tn recorded in the previous quarter

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Crude oil continued to dominate Nigeria’s exports, accounting for 68.87 per cent of total exports with a value of N13.78tn.

This represented a 33.7 per cent increase from Q4 2023 and a 2.8 per cent rise from Q3 2024. Other key exports included liquefied natural gas, petroleum gases, superior quality cocoa beans, and urea, which contributed significantly to Nigeria’s non-oil export revenue.

The Netherlands emerged as Nigeria’s largest export destination, receiving N2.09tn worth of goods, representing 10.44 per cent of total exports.

France followed with N1.91tn, while Spain recorded N1.74tn. India and Indonesia were also among the top five export partners, with N1.60tn and N1.41tn in trade, respectively.

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These five countries collectively accounted for 43.7 per cent of Nigeria’s total exports during the period.

Total imports in Q4 2024 rose sharply to N16.59tn, reflecting an 83.2 per cent increase from the N9.05tn recorded in Q4 2023. Compared to the previous quarter, imports increased by 8.57 per cent from N15.28tn.

However, mineral product imports declined, falling from N5.84tn in Q3 2024 to N4.92tn in Q4 2024, indicating a reduced reliance on imported mineral fuels.

Agricultural imports reached N1.09tn in Q4 2024, representing a 53.4 per cent rise from the same period in 2023.

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Raw material imports surged to N2.11tn, marking a 118.2 per cent year-on-year increase. Manufactured goods imports recorded the highest growth, reaching N8.47tn, an increase of 113.3 per cent from Q4 2023.

China remained Nigeria’s top import source, accounting for N4.61tn or 27.8 per cent of total imports. India followed with N1.90tn, while Belgium, the United States, and France contributed N1.39tn, N1.06tn, and N601.28bn, respectively.

The agricultural sector recorded strong growth in Q4 2024, with total agricultural exports valued at N1.54tn, reflecting a 232 per cent increase from the same period in 2023.

Superior quality cocoa beans were the most exported agricultural product, accounting for N836.2bn.

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Standard quality cocoa beans followed at N269.3bn, while sesamum seeds were valued at N202.9bn.

Other notable agricultural exports included natural cocoa butter at N104.6bn and shelled cashew nuts at N30.8bn.

Europe remained the dominant market for Nigeria’s agricultural exports, accounting for N986.7bn, while Asia received N474.4bn worth of agricultural products.

The Netherlands and Malaysia were the top buyers of Nigerian cocoa beans, while China and Japan imported significant quantities of sesamum seeds.

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Total exports in the solid minerals sector were valued at N60.7bn, reflecting a 69.2 per cent increase year-on-year but a 21.9 per cent decline from Q3 2024.

Cement clinkers and tin ores were the dominant solid mineral exports, with major trading partners including Cameroon and China.

Imports of solid minerals, mainly plasters from Egypt and Tunisia, were valued at N111.8bn during the quarter.

Manufactured goods exports stood at N494.2bn, marking a 110.3 per cent increase year-on-year but a 52.5 per cent decline from Q3 2024.

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The top manufactured goods exports included unwrought aluminum alloys, dredgers, and cathodes. Most of Nigeria’s manufactured goods exports were shipped to Africa, followed by Asia and Europe.

Meanwhile, manufactured goods imports surged to N8.47tn, with aircraft parts from France and photovoltaic cells from China among the most imported items.

Trade with African countries remained robust, with total exports valued at N2.04tn, while imports from the continent stood at N514.96bn, representing just 3.1 per cent of total imports. South Africa, Ivory Coast, and Senegal emerged as Nigeria’s top trading partners within Africa.

Within ECOWAS, Nigeria exported goods worth N1.18tn, while imports from the region were valued at N77.1bn. Ivory Coast ranked as Nigeria’s largest ECOWAS export destination, followed by Senegal, Togo, Ghana, and Benin Republic.

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The most exported products to ECOWAS included petroleum oils, electrical energy, and cigarettes, while crude palm oil and petroleum bitumen were the most imported products from the region.

The report indicated that 98.8 per cent of Nigeria’s exports in Q4 2024 were transported by sea, with Apapa Port handling 89.6 per cent of total outbound shipments.

Air and road transport accounted for minimal shares of total exports. On the import side, maritime transport remained dominant, accounting for 90.2 per cent of inbound shipments. Apapa Port continued to serve as Nigeria’s major entry point for imports.

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