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Economy

Crude supply drags as NNPC slows modular refineries’ approval

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Operators of modular refineries are facing a major setback as they encounter resistance from the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) in a bid to secure alternative crude oil supplies.

Nigeria’s position as Africa’s biggest oil producer should logically confer the benefits of ample supply to its local refiners. However, the reality is starkly different.

Leaked memos and extensive interviews with industry insiders showed the state-owned company is foot-dragging on approvals for modular refineries to seek alternative crude oil supplies.

Modular refineries are simplified refineries with significantly less capital investment than traditionally full-scale refineries.

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Insiders said the red tape is a death knell for modular refineries struggling to survive amid funding drought, as foreign investors withhold their money due to a lack of guaranteed crude oil supply.

A leaked memo seen by BusinessDay showed AIPCC Energy Limited, owners and operators of the Edo Refinery and Petrochemicals Company Limited (ERPCL), has faced significant operational hurdles due to the persistent lack of crude oil supply despite being a fully functional 1,000 barrels per stream day crude oil refinery located in Ologbo, Edo State.

The company has existing crude oil supply agreements with Seplat and ND Western since 2022, but bureaucratic bottlenecks have prevented the refinery from accessing the much-needed resource.

ERPCL’s letter addressed to Mele Kyari, group chief executive officer of NNPC, alleged the company has been in constant communication, sending letters and having meetings with the NNPC since 2021.

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“On 18th August 2021, our team led by our chairman, met with you and your top management team to discuss our intention to buy crude oil from NNPC and we immediately wrote to the NNPC, seeking crude supply,” the letter dated 22 July 2024 said.

It added, “In July 2022, the representatives of NNPC (from HQ Abuja and NPDC Benin) visited our facility for site inspection and to confirm the mechanical completion of the Edo refinery. In September 2022, we were invited for a commercial negotiation meeting with the NNPC Head of terms, after which we sent a follow-up letter identifying the oil fields from which we can offtake crude oil.

“In March 2022, we also wrote to the Ministry of Petroleum Resources, informing it of our refinery status, future projects and our challenges of lack of crude oil supply to our refinery. We had also written to and had a meeting with the NNPC Exploration and Production Limited (NEPL) between November 2022 and March 2023, indicating our severe need for crude oil supply from oil fields where NEPL has equity stakes.”

ERPCL noted that despite these correspondences and communications with NNPC over the past three years on the issues of crude oil supply, it has succeeded.

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ERPCL also has a Crude Oil Supply Agreement with ND Western to lift crude oil from the Ughelli Pumping Station (UPS) owned by NEPL and operated by Shoreline.

“We have held several meetings with Shoreline and Heritage Oil and indicated our readiness to make modifications needed to offtake crude oil from the UPS but no progress has been made till date,” ERPCL.

The owners of ERPCL seek Kyari intervention as group CEO of NNPC for NUIMS to give occurrence to the Seplat-ERPCL agreement to enable Edo refinery to start lifting crude oil from Oil Mining License 53.

They also want Kyari’s intervention for NEPL and shoreline to allow Edo refinery to start lifting ND Western’s crude oil from the Ughelli pumping station.

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Nigeria currently boasts 25 licensed modular refineries. Five are operational, producing diesel, kerosene, black oil, and naphtha.

OPAC and Aradel have the highest capacities among the five working refineries at 11,000 and 10,000 bpd respectively, while Duport has the lowest at 2,500 bpd. Edo Refinery and Waltersmith fall in between, with capacities of 1,000 and 5,000 bpd, respectively.

About 10 are in various stages of completion, while the others have only received licences to establish. The rest remains stalled due to the unavailability of crude and other issues.

The CEO of another modular refinery, who pleaded anonymity, stated that modular operators had raised concerns severally in the past that some mafias in the oil sector were bent on stopping in-country refining of crude oil for the production of Premium Motor Spirit, popularly called petrol but received no positive feedback, stressing that the chairman of Dangote Petroleum Refinery just re-echoed it last month.

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“No modular refinery has received a barrel from NNPC despite engagement since 2020,” he said.

Eche Idoko, the publicity secretary of Crude Oil Refinery Owners Association of Nigeria (CORAN), advised the federal government to treat indigenous refiners right, given that foreign investments are no longer flowing into the sector.

“In the last eight years, no major foreign investments had been recorded,” Idoko said.

He noted that five CORAN members have completed their refineries.

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“The others are having a major challenge. This challenge is that the people who are supposed to finance them have not disbursed financing for construction because they want some level of guarantee,” he said.

“A guarantee that if they finish the refinery, they are going to get feedstock, which, of course, is crude oil,” Idoko said.

Industry experts say the economic impact of this inadequate supply is profound.

BusinessDay findings showed that agriculture and manufacturing, which depend heavily on diesel and other refined products, suffer from high operational costs due to exorbitant fuel prices.

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The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) reported a 20 percent increase in food prices over the past year, a trend directly linked to high diesel costs driven by insufficient local refining capacity.

Moreover, the high cost of diesel, which peaked at N1,800 per litre early this year, places a heavy burden on logistics and transportation, further driving up the cost of goods and services. The coming of the Dangote Petroleum Refinery forced the price to N1,200/litre in April.

Last Monday, the Federal Executive Council (FCE) approved a proposal by President Bola Tinubu directing the NNPC to sell crude oil to Dangote Petroleum Refinery and other modular refineries in naira.

Idoko believes this move will boost domestic refining capacity and ultimately reduce fuel prices for consumers. However, he emphasised the need for concrete actions to back up the announcement.

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“Regulatory bodies need to provide detailed guidelines for the policy’s implementation,” Idoko said.

Credit: BusinessDay

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Economy

FG services foreign debt with $3.5bn

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The Federal Government spent $3.58 billion servicing its foreign debt in the first nine months of 2024, representing a 39.77 per cent increase from the $2.56bn spent during the same period in 2023.

This is according to data from the Central Bank of Nigeria on international payment statistics.

The significant rise in external debt service payments shows the mounting pressure on Nigeria’s fiscal balance amid ongoing economic challenges.

Data from CBN’s international payment statistics reveal that the highest monthly debt servicing payment in 2024 occurred in May, amounting to $854.37m.

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In comparison, the highest monthly expenditure in 2023 was $641.70m, recorded in July. The sharp contrast in May’s figures between the two years ($854.37m in 2024 versus $221.05m in 2023) highlights the rising cost of debt obligations, as Nigeria battles massive devaluation of the naira.

The CBN showed significant month-on-month changes in debt servicing costs, with some months recording sharp increases compared to the previous year. A breakdown of the data revealed varied trends across the nine months.

In January 2024, debt servicing costs surged by 398.89 per cent, rising to $560.52m from $112.35m in January 2023. February, however, saw a slight decline of 1.84 per cent, with payments reducing from $288.54m in 2023 to $283.22m in 2024.

March recorded a 31.04 per cent drop in payments, falling to $276.17m from $400.47m in the same period last year. April saw a significant rise of 131.77 per cent, with $215.20m paid in 2024 compared to $92.85m in 2023.

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The highest debt servicing payment occurred in May 2024, when $854.37m was spent, reflecting a 286.52 per cent increase compared to $221.05m in May 2023. June, on the other hand, saw a 6.51 per cent decline, with $50.82m paid in 2024, down from $54.36m in 2023.

July 2024 recorded a 15.48 per cent reduction, with payments dropping to $542.50m from $641.70m in July 2023. In August, there was another decline of 9.69 per cent, as $279.95m was paid compared to $309.96m in 2023. However, September 2024 saw a 17.49 per cent increase, with payments rising to $515.81m from $439.06m in the same month last year.

The data raises concerns about the growing pressure of Nigeria’s foreign debt obligations, with rising global interest rates and exchange rate fluctuations contributing to higher costs.

The global credit ratings agency, Fitch, recently projected Nigeria’s external debt servicing will rise to $5.2bn next year.

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This is despite the current administration’s insistence on focusing more on domestic borrowings from the capital market.

It also estimated that approximately 30 per cent of Nigeria’s external reserves are constituted by foreign exchange bank swaps.

Regarding external debt, the agency said external financing obligation

The Federal Government spent $3.58 billion servicing its foreign debt in the first nine months of 2024, representing a 39.77 per cent increase from the $2.56bn spent during the same period in 2023.

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This is according to data from the Central Bank of Nigeria on international payment statistics.

The significant rise in external debt service payments shows the mounting pressure on Nigeria’s fiscal balance amid ongoing economic challenges.

Data from CBN’s international payment statistics reveal that the highest monthly debt servicing payment in 2024 occurred in May, amounting to $854.37m.

In comparison, the highest monthly expenditure in 2023 was $641.70m, recorded in July. The sharp contrast in May’s figures between the two years ($854.37m in 2024 versus $221.05m in 2023) highlights the rising cost of debt obligations, as Nigeria battles massive devaluation of the naira.

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The CBN showed significant month-on-month changes in debt servicing costs, with some months recording sharp increases compared to the previous year. A breakdown of the data revealed varied trends across the nine months.

In January 2024, debt servicing costs surged by 398.89 per cent, rising to $560.52m from $112.35m in January 2023. February, however, saw a slight decline of 1.84 per cent, with payments reducing from $288.54m in 2023 to $283.22m in 2024.

March recorded a 31.04 per cent drop in payments, falling to $276.17m from $400.47m in the same period last year. April saw a significant rise of 131.77 per cent, with $215.20m paid in 2024 compared to $92.85m in 2023.

The highest debt servicing payment occurred in May 2024, when $854.37m was spent, reflecting a 286.52 per cent increase compared to $221.05m in May 2023. June, on the other hand, saw a 6.51 per cent decline, with $50.82m paid in 2024, down from $54.36m in 2023.

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July 2024 recorded a 15.48 per cent reduction, with payments dropping to $542.50m from $641.70m in July 2023. In August, there was another decline of 9.69 per cent, as $279.95m was paid compared to $309.96m in 2023. However, September 2024 saw a 17.49 per cent increase, with payments rising to $515.81m from $439.06m in the same month last year.

The data raises concerns about the growing pressure of Nigeria’s foreign debt obligations, with rising global interest rates and exchange rate fluctuations contributing to higher costs.

The global credit ratings agency, Fitch, recently projected Nigeria’s external debt servicing will rise to $5.2bn next year.

This is despite the current administration’s insistence on focusing more on domestic borrowings from the capital market.

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It also estimated that approximately 30 per cent of Nigeria’s external reserves are constituted by foreign exchange bank swaps.

Regarding external debt, the agency said external financing obligations through a combination of multilateral lending, syndicated loans, and potentially commercial borrowing will raise the servicing from $4.8bn in 2024 to $5.2bn in 2025.

The anticipated servicing includes $2.9bn of amortisations, including a $1.1bn Eurobond repayment due in November.

The Small and Medium Enterprises Development Agency and economists have stated that the rise in Nigeria’s public debt might create macroeconomic challenges, especially if the debt service burden continues to grow.

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The Chief Executive Officer of the Centre for the Promotion of Public Enterprises, Dr Muda Yusuf, explained that the situation could lead to a vicious circle, warning that “we don’t end up in a debt trap.”

He said, “I think there is a need for us to be very conscious of and watch the rate of growth of our public debt. Because it could create macro-economic challenges especially if the burden of debt service continues to grow.”

He maintained that there is a need for the government to reduce the exposure to foreign debts because the number has grown so due to the exchange rate.s through a combination of multilateral lending, syndicated loans, and potentially commercial borrowing will raise the servicing from $4.8bn in 2024 to $5.2bn in 2025.

The anticipated servicing includes $2.9bn of amortisations, including a $1.1bn Eurobond repayment due in November.

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The Small and Medium Enterprises Development Agency and economists have stated that the rise in Nigeria’s public debt might create macroeconomic challenges, especially if the debt service burden continues to grow.

The Chief Executive Officer of the Centre for the Promotion of Public Enterprises, Dr Muda Yusuf, explained that the situation could lead to a vicious circle, warning that “we don’t end up in a debt trap.”

He said, “I think there is a need for us to be very conscious of and watch the rate of growth of our public debt. Because it could create macro-economic challenges especially if the burden of debt service continues to grow.”

He maintained that there is a need for the government to reduce the exposure to foreign debts because the number has grown so due to the exchange rate.

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Economy

Oil imports drop by $1.52bn in Q2/24 – says CBN

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Nigeria’s oil importation dropped to $2.79bn from $4.31bn in Q2 of 2024. This amounts to $1.52bn decline or a 35 per cent decline.

This development was contained in the Central Bank of Nigeria’s quarterly economic report for the second quarter of 2024 released recently.

This reduction highlights shifting dynamics in the nation’s oil and gas sector amid ongoing structural and economic adjustments following the removal of fuel subsidies under the administration of President Bola Tinubu.

The report also noted that the overall value of merchandise imports contracted, falling by 20.59 per cent to $8.64bn from $10.88bn recorded in Q1 2024.

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The sharp decline in oil imports contributed significantly to this trend, the report noted.

The report reads: “Merchandise import decreased in Q2 2024, following the decline in the import of petroleum products. Merchandise imports decreased by 20.59 per cent to $8.64bn, from $10.88bn in Q12024.

“Analysis by composition indicated that oil imports decreased to $2.79bn, from $4.31bn in the preceding quarter.

“Non-oil imports also declined to $5.85bn, from $6.57bn in the previous quarter. A breakdown of total import showed that non-oil imports accounted for 67.72 per cent, while oil imports constituted the balance.”

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Economy

Naira slumps against dollar to end on negative note

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The Naira depreciated against the dollar on Friday at the foreign exchange market to end the week on a negative note.

FMDQ data showed that the weakened to N1678.87 per dollar on Friday from the N1639.50 exchange rate on Thursday.

This represents a N39.37 depreciation against the dollar compared to N1678.87 exchanged on Thursday.

Meanwhile, at the parallel market, the naira gained N10 to exchange at N1740 per dollar on Friday compared to N1750 recorded the previous day.

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The development comes as Foreign Exchange transactions turnover surged astronomically to $1403.76 million on Friday from $244.96 million on Thursday, according to FMDQ data.

DAILY POST reports that in the week under review, the naira recorded mixed sentiments of gains and losses.

This showed Naira had continued to experience fluatuations in the FX marketers despite the Central Bank of Nigeria interventions.

Recall that on Wednesday, CBN authorised commercial, merchant, and non-interest banks in the country to manage tradeable foreign currencies deposited in domiciliary accounts established through the new Foreign Currency Disclosure, Deposit, Repatriation, and Investment Scheme.

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