By Francesca Hangeior.
China’s urban pet population is set to surpass the number of children under four by year end, according to reports by CNN and Goldman Sachs.
The reports, released on Thursday, noted that China’s population is ageing rapidly and its workforce is shrinking, following decades of a one-child policy.
A study by the YuWa Population Research Institute found that China is one of the most expensive countries to raise a child, surpassing Australia and France in relative terms.
China’s government, which ended the one-child policy in 2016 and later relaxed birth restrictions in 2021 to allow three children, is now struggling to boost birth rates, having previously been successful in limiting them.
Couples interviewed for the study like Hansen, 36, and Momo, 35, are opting out of having children and instead choosing to become pet owners, a trend increasingly common among Chinese couples.
Owner Tao hangs out with dogs at Space, a dog hotel in Beijing. Photo: Justin Robertson/CNN
A Goldman Sachs report predicts that by year’s end, the number of pets in China’s urban areas will exceed the number of children under the age of four, driven by growing demand for pet food.
Goldman Sachs projects that by 2030, urban China’s pet population will nearly double the number of children under four nationwide.
This estimate only accounts for urban areas, and the total number of pets would be even higher if rural areas were included.
According to Goldman Sachs, the rising pet ownership in China reflects a shift in values among younger generations, who no longer prioritise marriage and childbearing as a means of continuing family lineage.
“Different generations value things differently, you know,” said Hansen.
Goldman Sachs reports that China’s pet food sector is booming, with sales growing 16% annually from 2017 to 2023, reaching $7 billion.
The industry is projected to expand to $12 billion by 2030, with a potential upside of $15 billion in just six years, making it one of the fastest-growing consumer sectors in the country.
The report highlights that the pet industry’s surge in China marks a stark contrast to just 20 years ago, when keeping pets was seen as a luxury of the wealthy and mixed-breed dogs were primarily valued as guard animals.
China’s birth rate is also expected to decline by 4.2% annually from 2022 to 2030, driven by a shrinking population of women aged 20-35 and a growing trend among young people to delay or forgo having children.
“We expect to see stronger momentum in pet ownership amid a relatively weaker birth rate outlook and higher incremental household pet penetration from the younger generation,” the report stated.
Rising costs and economic uncertainty are deterring many Chinese couples from having children.
“The world’s second-biggest economy is facing headwinds ranging from high youth unemployment to a protracted property crisis,” CNN noted.
China’s government has shifted its approach, replacing restrictive population control measures like forced abortions and sterilisations with enticing incentives, such as cash rewards and extended parental leave, to encourage people to have children.
China’s population has dropped for two consecutive years, hitting 1.409 billion, with a record-low birth rate of 6.39 per 1,000 people, the lowest rate since the founding of Communist China in 1949.