The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has downgraded Nigeria’s economic growth forecast to 2.9% for 2024, citing several challenges, including insecurity in oil-producing regions, the effects of flooding, and lower-than-expected activity in the first half of the year. This revision was disclosed in the IMF’s latest Global Economic Outlook report, released on Tuesday.
Previously, the IMF had projected Nigeria’s economy to grow by 3.3% in April, which was later adjusted to 3.1% in July. However, further disruptions in oil production and other economic hurdles have prompted a more cautious estimate.
The report, presented by Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, Director of the IMF’s Research Department, and Daniel Leigh, Division Chief, outlined the specific challenges facing Nigeria, which are common among emerging and developing economies. The combination of civil unrest, insecurity, and extreme weather conditions continues to weigh on the country’s economic prospects.
In emerging market and developing economies, disruptions to production and shipping of commodities—especially oil—conflicts, civil unrest, and extreme weather events have led to downward revisions to the outlook for the Middle East and Central Asia and that for sub-Saharan Africa,” part of the report read.
Globally, the IMF forecast remains stable, but growth is expected to remain modest. The fund estimates that global growth will stabilise at 3.1% over the next five years, a rate the IMF described as “mediocre” compared to pre-pandemic levels.