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Opinion

Social Media providers and Nigerian Content creators

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By Sonny Aragba-Akpore

On Monday September 16,2024,ByteDance and it’s short video platform,Tik Tok appeared at a crowded court in Washington DC,the United States of America (USA) before a panel of three judges to appeal against a law that is likely to ban the company from doing business in the USA by January 2025 if it does not divest its operations.
Although,this legal tussle is ongoing,Nigerian content creators appear to be the first victims of this long drawn battle between Tik Tok and the American government.
While the content creators wonder what becomes of their trade,Facebook and Instagram are making things more difficult for them.
Tik Tok ,Facebook and Instagram may have strong reasons for their actions but not as much as we know.
Meta Group,owners of Facebook,Instagram and WhatsApp last week deleted over 1,600 users in Nigeria for alleged scamming activities.
The deleted 1,600 Facebook groups are allegedly linked to Yahoo Boys.

This purge, which happened on October 17,2024 , follows the one in July 2024 that saw 7,200 Facebook assets removed. The company also announced that the recent removal of 63,000 Instagram accounts in Nigeria were tied to financial sextortion scams.

On Thursday ,October 17,2024 Meta revealed that these groups attempted to organise, recruit, and train new scammers. It said, “Yahoo Boys are banned under Meta’s Dangerous Organizations and Individuals policy — one of our strictest policies — which means we remove Yahoo Boys’ accounts engaged in this criminal activity whenever we become aware of them.”

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“While we’ve been removing violating Yahoo Boys accounts for years, we’re putting new processes in place which will allow us to identify and remove these accounts more quickly.”

In addition to targeting scammers, Meta introduced new safety features aimed at protecting users, particularly teens, from sextortion scams. These measures include blocking suspicious accounts from following teens and making it harder for scammers to view follower lists, which are often used to blackmail victims.

The TikTok face off with the U.S. government in federal court specifically argued a law that could ban the platform in a few short months saying it is unconstitutional .

But the American Justice Department said it is needed to eliminate a national security risk posed by the popular social media company.

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In the more than two-hour appearance before a panel of three judges at a federal appeals court in Washington, attorneys for the two sides – and content creators – were pressed on their best arguments for and against the law that forces TikTok and its China-based parent company ByteDance to break ties by mid-January or lose one of their biggest markets in the world.
Andrew Pincus, a veteran attorney representing the two companies, argued in court that the law unfairly targets the company and runs foul of the First Amendment because TikTok Inc. – the U.S. arm of TikTok – is an American entity. After his remarks, another attorney representing content creators who are also challenging the law argued it violates the rights of U.S. speakers and is akin to prohibiting Americans from publishing on foreign-owned media outlets, such as Politico, Al Jazeera or Spotify.
Despite the spirited arguments put forward by Tik Tok is already licking its wounds and in what seems a transferred aggression visited its spleen by deleting over two million accounts of Nigerians mid last week.
This is the second time in the last one year that it will visit its anger on Nigerians.
By last quarter of 2023, no fewer than 1.7 million accounts were deleted.
Figures published in ByteDance’s advertising resources indicate that TikTok had 23.84 million users aged 18 and above in Nigeria in early 2024 according to DataReportal.

ByteDance allows marketers to target TikTok ads to users aged 13 and above via its advertising tools, but these tools only show audience data for users aged 18 and above .

ByteDance’s figures indicate that TikTok ads reached 20.8 percent of all adults aged 18 and above in Nigeria at the start of 2024.

TikTok’s ad reach in Nigeria was equivalent to 23.1 percent of the local internet user base at the beginning of the year, regardless of age according to DataReportal.

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In early 2024, 40.9 percent of TikTok’s ad audience in Nigeria was female, while 59.1 percent was male.ByteDance’s advertising resources only publish audience gender data for “female” and “male” users.

DataReportal explains that, ad audiences often only account for a subset of a platform’s total users, and given that TikTok’s ad tools only publish data for users aged 18 and above, it’s important to remember that trends in TikTok’s ad reach figures may not necessarily match changes in the platform’s overall user base. In reality TikTok’s ad reach in Nigeria was equivalent to 23.1 percent of the local internet user base at the beginning of the year, regardless of age.

The battle in the American courts is especially calculated to upturn a Presidential Executive Order which specifically directs Tik Tok to divest its operations by breaking away from the Chinese appendages.

The measure, signed by President Joe Biden in April, 2024 was the culmination of years-long saga in Washington over the short-form video-sharing app, which the government sees as a national security threat due to its connections to China.

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The U.S. has said it’s concerned about TikTok collecting vast swaths of user data, including sensitive information on viewing habits, that could fall into the hands of the Chinese government through coercion.

Officials have also warned the proprietary algorithm that fuels what users see on the app is vulnerable to alleged manipulation by Chinese authorities, who can use it to shape content on the platform in a way that’s difficult to detect.

So what is the offence of Nigerian content creators in all of these?

During the second quarter of 2024, approximately 21.6 million TikTok accounts owned by Nigerians were removed from the platform due to suspicion of being operated by users under the age of 13.
“During the last measured period, around 171 million fake accounts were removed from fake accounts removed from TikTok” as alleged by the company saying that the deleted accounts allegedly consistently violated Community Guidelines and so stood banned from TikTok.

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“If your account has been banned, you’ll receive a banner notification when you next open the app, informing you of this account change” Tik Tok stated.

Some of the accounts were deleted because they were said to be inactive and were not used to access TikTok for at least 180 days.

“Whether an account is inactive is not publicly visible and duplication of user name is inadmissible.”

“In most instances, we cannot reassign a username. We suggest using a variation of your desired username by adding numbers or underscores, or using an abbreviation.

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If you believe that a username infringes your intellectual property rights, view our Intellectual Property Policy.”

TikTok’s Community Guidelines Enforcement Report provides insight into how the platform maintains safety and integrity. With over 40,000 trust and safety professionals working alongside cutting-edge technology, TikTok enforces strict guidelines and policies to ensure a positive experience for all users.
With a global proactive detection rate of 98.2%, TikTok is more efficient than ever at preventing harmful content from reaching its audience.

The platform’s ongoing investment in cutting-edge moderation technology is coupled with its commitment to transparency, ensuring a secure space for its diverse Nigerian and global users.

TikTok’s report is part of its broader mission to inspire creativity and foster a joyful, safe environment for all users.

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These actions reflect TikTok’s focus on ensuring user safety by addressing harmful content swiftly. The platform continues to invest in advanced technologies to detect and remove inappropriate material.

Globally, TikTok removed over 178 million videos in June 2024, with 144 million of these removed through automated systems.

These improvements have helped reduce the exposure of moderators to harmful content, as well as the speed of detection.

“In its Q2 2024 Community Guidelines Enforcement Report, Tik Tok emphasized its commitment to maintaining a safe and positive environment for Nigerian users.

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This report provides transparency into the platform’s content moderation efforts, highlighting the videos and accounts removed for violating community guidelines” according to agency reports.
The 2.1 million videos deleted from Nigeria are less than 1% of all content uploaded in the country.
The social media platform attributed this action to violations of its Community Guidelines.

It noted Nigeria’s presence among the top 50 countries for such policy breaches during Q4 of 2023.
Globally, 176.5 million videos were removed during this period, with the top 50 offending markets responsible for about 90% of these removals.

According to the report, the deleted videos violate TikTok’s restrictions pertaining to safety, and civility. Additionally, they violate mental and behavioral health, privacy and security, integrity, and authenticity restrictions, among others.

TikTok claimed that within the period under examination, it had deleted 169 million accounts that had been found to be fraudulent or spam.

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Agency reports quoted TikTok Ada’s saying “From October through to the end of 2023, we removed more than 169 million fake accounts globally. Also, we have removed about 1.2 million bot comments on content tagged with hashtags related to the Israel-Hamas war.”

“However, we remain vigilant in our efforts to detect external threats and safeguard the platform from fake accounts and engagement.

“These threats persistently probe and attack our systems, leading to occasional fluctuations in the reported metrics within these areas.”

Since its launch, TikTok has become one of the world’s most popular social media platforms, using recommendation algorithms to connect content creators with new audiences.

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In April 2020, TikTok surpassed two billion mobile downloads worldwide.
Cloud flare ranked TikTok the most popular website of 2021, surpassing Google.The popularity of TikTok has allowed viral trends in food and music to take off and increase the platform’s cultural impact worldwide.

TikTok has come under scrutiny due to data privacy violations, mental health concerns, misinformation, offensive content, and its role during the Israel–Hamas war.

Countries have fined, banned, or attempted to restrict TikTok to protect children or out of national security concerns over possible user data collection by the Chinese government through ByteDance.

TikTok, started as Douyin in China and Hong Kong as a short-form video hosting service owned by Chinese internet company ByteDance. It hosts user-submitted videos, which can range in duration from three seconds to 60 minutes.It can be accessed with a smart phone app.

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ByteDance planned on Douyin expanding overseas. The founder of ByteDance, Zhang Yiming, stated that “China is home to only one-fifth of Internet users globally. If we don’t expand on a global scale, we are bound to lose to peers eyeing the four-fifths. So, going global is a must.”

ByteDance created TikTok as a global version of Douyin. TikTok was launched in the international market in September 2017.On November 9,2017, ByteDance spent nearly $1 billion to purchase Musical.ly, a startup headquartered in Shanghai with an overseas office in Santa Monica, California.Musical.ly was a social media video platform that allowed users to create short lip-sync and comedy videos, initially released in August 2014.

TikTok merged with Musical.ly on August 2,2018 with existing accounts and data consolidated into one app, keeping the title TikTok.

On January 23,2018, the TikTok app ranked first among free application downloads on app stores in Thailand and other countries.TikTok has been downloaded more than 130 million times in the United States and has reached two billion downloads worldwide,according to data from mobile research firm Sensor Tower (those numbers exclude Android users in China).

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In the United States, celebrities, including Jimmy Fallon and Tony Hawk, began using the app in 2018.Other celebrities, including Jennifer Lopez, Jessica Alba, Will Smith, and Justin Bieber joined TikTok as well as many others.In January 2019, TikTok allowed creators to embed merchandise sale links into their videos.

On September 3,2019, TikTok and the U.S. National Football League (NFL) announced a multi-year partnership.The agreement occurred just two days before the NFL’s 100th season kick-off at Soldier Field, where TikTok hosted activities for fans in honor of the deal.

The partnership entails the launch of an official NFL TikTok account, which is to bring about new marketing opportunities such as sponsored videos and hashtag challenges.

In July 2020, TikTok, excluding Douyin, reported close to 800 million monthly active users worldwide after less than four years of existence.

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In May 2021, TikTok appointed Shou Zi Chew as their new CEO who assumed the position from interim CEO Vanessa Pappas, following the resignation of Kevin A. Mayer on August 27, 2020.In September 2021, TikTok reported that it had reached one billion users.
In 2021, TikTok earned $4 billion in advertising revenue.

In October 2022, TikTok was reported to be planning an expansion into the e-commerce market in the US, following the launch of TikTok Shop in the United Kingdom. The company posted job listings for staff for a series of order fulfillment centers in the US and is reportedly planning to start the new live shopping business before the end of the year.

Douyin was launched by ByteDance in September 2016, originally under the name A.me, before rebranding to Douyin in December 2016.

Douyin was developed in 200 days and within a year had 100 million users, with more than one billion videos viewed every day.

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While TikTok and Douyin share a similar user interface, the platforms operate separately.

Douyin includes an in-video search feature that can search by people’s faces for more videos of them, along with other features such as buying, booking hotels, and making geo-tagged reviews.

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Opinion

Playing games with telecom tariff hikes

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By Sonny Aragba-Akpore

In what sounded like a death knell or an epilogue as we know it in literature,Association of Licenced Telecoms Operators of Nigeria (ALTON )chairman, Gbenga Adebayo, warned that “if nothing is done, we might begin to see in the new year grim consequences unfolding, such as Service Shedding; Operators may not be able to provide services in some areas and at some times of the day leaving millions disconnected, there will be significant economic Fallout, because businesses will suffer from lack of connectivity, stalling growth and innovation. There will also be national economic disruption where key sectors like security, commerce, healthcare, and education which rely heavily on telecom infrastructure, will face serious disruptions.”

This is frightening should the threat be carried out with full force.

But can the operators act unilaterally?The answer is no and that is where the game begins.

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Only last week the government agreed to demands for tariff hikes in the telecommunication industry. This is expected in the coming weeks, as the government aims to address sustainability challenges in the telecom sector. This implies that prices of calls, data and SMS will go up for the average Nigerian.

However, the hike will fall short of the 100 percent increase requested by service providers, with the government seeking to balance sector growth and protecting Nigerians from excessive financial burdens.Bosun Tijani, the minister of communications, innovation, and digital economy, disclosed this during an industry stakeholder forum in Abuja on Wednesday January 8,2025.

Similarly the NCC introduced the Guidance for the Simplification of Tariffs signed out by NCC Chief on November 25,2024 stating among other things that :”This Guidance is pursuant to the regulatory powers of the Nigerian Communications Commission (Commission) under Sections 3, 108 and 109 of the Nigerian

Communications Act 2003 (Act) as well as relevant subsidiary legislations empowering the Commission in that regard. It is also in furtherance of the mandate of the Commission to regulate communications services and ensure consumer protection in the sector.

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The Commission hereby issues this Amended Guidance for the simplification of tariff plans, bundles and promotional activities that include tariffs. This Guidance is designed to enhance transparency, improve consumer understanding and foster fair competition”.

It doesn’t stop there as the guidelines also elaborate on what is possible: “For the USSD platform, the following information should be included when a subscriber requests details of their tariff plan
o Name of Plan
o Validity Period (if applicable) Indicate rate per second (and rate per
minute) on-net/off-net
o Indicate rate per megabyte/kilobyte/gigabyte
o Indicate rate per SMS on-net/off-net
o The number of Add-ons subscribed to

Additional Conditions for Tariff Approvals
Operators must offer standalone data bundles, at fair prices to avoid tying consumers with products they do not need Bonuses on promotions must be stated in actual value.For all tariff plans, both the Main and Bonus accounts must deplete at rates within stipulated price floors and caps.

Bundles with shorter validity periods should be prioritized for depletion.
Options for subscribers who exhaust their bundle allowance within the stipulated
validity period should include:
o Purchase of a top-up bundle
o Purchase of a new bundle
o Switch to the default rate of his/her plan

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Any Operator wishing to offer services on third-party platforms (Banking applications, etc.) at discounted rates must obtain and comply with the explicit approval received from the Commission (Hot Deals, personalized/ below-the-
line offers, Cashback etc.)

Existing personalised offers approved by the Commission can remain active for the duration of the validity period of the approval. However, the Commission will continue to monitor the market and make necessary
interventions when required.

Below-the-line/personalised offers, Fixed/Fixed Wireless Services, and Device
Financing Propositions must be presented for the Commission’s prior approval process.

No one has ever challenged the powers of telecommunications regulators,the Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC) to regulate the sector which is believed to be the engine room of the economy.

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With over 14% contributions to the Gross Domestic Product’s (GDP) and one the biggest single contributors, telecommunications affects every fabric of the Nigerian life.

Understandably then, if the sector players experience haemorhage as a result of economic headwinds, then the economy is truly troubled.

The operators complain loudly that government may have decided to give out telecom services as palliative to Nigerians against the wishes of of Mobile Network Operators (MNOS) therefore suffocating their business.
They alleged that the regulator is playing games, especially against the backdrop of its inability to hearken to their cries of tariff hike.

But the regulator thinks differently as it says the Nigerian Communications Act (2003) especially sections 108 and 109 empowered it to treat such issues in that regard.

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The position and powers of the regulator have never been questioned by any of the industry stakeholders. What the operators are saying, for instance, is that some of the regulations by the Commission are so stale that they have little or no impact on modern business operations that can lead to growth or renewal of the industry.

At the time, NCC lost the voice to proclaim the provisions of the Act in Sections 108 and 109 which have no tolerance for the meddlesomeness of a minister or even the President of the Republic if he wanted to supervene. The operators did not also test the provisions of the Act in the Court.

One operator confessed in trepidation that “it’s already very tough doing business in Nigeria. We don’t want the government to come after use with all its powers.”one analyst summed up the NCC imbroglio at a time a Minister,s unnecessary place in the gallery truncated the 10% tariff hike which ended up as a Greek gift .And later short lived thus creating telecommunications as palliative to subscribers who do not have an idea of what operators are living through.

Even the operators are obviously ignorant of the floor price template as another analysis summed it up:
“Once a Floor and a Ceiling have been put in place, playing wthin the band doesn’t need the approval of the NCC,” another source affirmed.

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Perhaps in trying to enjoy this regulatory latitude, the operators in 2022 requested for, and got a 10 percent tariff increase on Voice and Data services from the NCC. The Commission reversed itself after a few days, saying the priority of the Minister Isa Pantami was to protect the citizens and ensure justice for all stakeholders. An NCC source told this writer that the reversal was unilaterally done by the minister who coerced the regulator to receive the fall.”

Telecom industry is under heavy burden according to ALTON Chairman, Adebayo.
Emphasizing that without the tariff review, operators cannot continue to guarantee service availability, the ALTON Chairman said though the challenges being faced by the telcos are not new, they have become more acute and more threatening with this passing year.

He noted that rising operational costs, skyrocketing energy costs, the relentless pressure of inflation, and volatile exchange rates, amongst others, have all placed an unsustainable burden on network operators.
Adebayo added that despite these mounting pressures, tariffs have remained stagnant, leaving operators trapped in a financial quagmire.

According to him, the resources needed to maintain, expand, and modernize telecom networks are no longer available and without intervention, “the future of this sector is at grave risk.”

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Keeping the sector afloat
The ALTON Chairman noted that stakeholders have done their best over the years to sustain the sector by upholding the values and importance of telecommunications in society.

“However, let me be clear: our work is far from over. It is not enough to have kept the sector afloat; we must now focus on securing its future. The sustainability challenges we face today are not just a passing storm—they are a clarion call for decisive action to ensure that this industry thrives for generations to come.
Due to the increasing costs, telecom operators in Nigeria have since last year been clamouring for an increase in tariffs.

In a joint statement by the Association of Licensed Telecom Operators of Nigeria (ALTON) and The Association of Telecommunication Companies of Nigeria (ATCON), the operators said the telecom industry is the only industry that has not reviewed its prices despite the rising inflation in the country and other economic realities that warrant increment.

They blamed this on the regulatory restraints that have been preventing them from pricing appropriately.
The Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC) regulates prices in the telecom industry and telecom operators are not allowed to implement any price change without the regulator’s approval.

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The regulator has said a cost-based study is being conducted to determine if it would approve price increments for the operators.

But the 2022 and 2024 proposals as announced by Toriola were truncated in August 2024 when ALTON traded off the proposals because of alleged misrepresentation saying the misrepresentation of the good intention of telecom operators to secure a slight adjustment on end-user tariff on voice calls and data services has led to the carriers slowing down on the push.

The operators, acting under the aegis of Association of Licensed Telecom Operators of Nigeria (ALTON), had sought the imprimatur of the Federal Government, via the Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC), to adjust call and data tariff to reflect cost of operation in the country.

The NCC had refused to accede to their demand, a decision insiders said was based on political expediency. In a pushback, the telcos had said their services should not be used as palliative to cushion the impact of ongoing economic hardships in the country.

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In May 2022,the mobile network operators (MNOS) proposed 40% increase in tariffs.

The operators under the auspices of Association of Licensed Telecommunication Operators of Nigeria (ALTON), proposed a 40 per cent hike in call and SMS tariffs.

The operators said the decision was necessary considering the rising cost of doing business.

A letter to the NCC said the fee for calls will increase from N6.4 to N8.95 while the price cap for SMS will increase from N4 to N5.61.

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The association said the telecommunications industry had been financially challenged by an economic downturn that occurred during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war.

ALTON added that the introduction of the five percent excise duty on telecom service providers has heightened the burden of multiple taxes and levies on the industry.

“ALTON considers it expedient for the telecommunications sector to undergo periodic cost adjustments through the commission’s intervention in order to minimise the impact of the challenging economic issues faced by our members,” it said.

“Upward review of the price determination for voice and data and SMS. Given the state of the economy and the circa 40 per cent increase in the cost of doing business, we wish to request for an interim administrative review of the mobile (voice) termination rate for voice; administrative data floor price, and cost of SMS as reflected in extant instruments.

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“For data services, we wish to request that the commission implements the recommendations in the August 2020 KPMG report on the determination of cost-based pricing for wholesale and retail broadband service in Nigeria. Excerpts from the report are attached and marked ‘Annexure 2’ to provide a further illustration,” it added.

When he spoke unanimously on national tv Toriola said “We at MTN believe we need adjustment of about 100 per cent, I think the industry is pretty much aligned because we are all experiencing the same headwinds. Now, the government is very sensitive to squeezing consumers’ wallets with the pressures that have come from inflation and currency devaluation on consumers.

Toriola was very optimistic that the government of Nigeria will accede to the proposed 100% tariff increase eventually all things being equal.

Toriola carried the cross and burden of the embattled sector when he spoke on national television last week Friday.
While bragging that telecommunications had impacted positively on the economy (he was right anyway) he is worried that not much encouragement has come from government.

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But that is where he miscalculated.

Although he felt justified that a tariff increase is sine quanon,there are several untapped layers of this question.

“So, I’m not sure they will give us 100 per cent, but I am optimistic they will give us something substantial and maybe progressively over the course of the year we can have smaller adjustments that will help us to get back to where we need to be,” Toriola said.

The MTN CEO said that almost every other sector in the country, including aviation and power have increased tariffs except the telecoms industry.

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According to him, all the bodies that look into the statistics of the telecoms industry globally have disclosed that Nigeria has probably the second or third lowest tariffs in the world on data as well as on voice.

If Toriola and his strange bedfellows return to the Floor price determination of 2016 and 2020 and the various studies carried out in that regard ,he will see a number of windows that could address the nightmare and save both the regulator Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC) and the rest of us these agonizing times.

Strangely,non of the operators has hit the maximum threshold of 50 naira per minute because of the competition to outdo each other by playing to the gallery in order to play smart and scurry subscribers attentions.

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Opinion

Did Yagba Federal Constituency Rotation Arrangement End in 2011?

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By Debo Alabi

Yagba Federal Constituency in the western Kogi senatorial zone, consists of three local councils, namely Mopamuro, Yagba East and Yagba West. In 1999, at the outset of the Fourth Republic political dispensation in Nigeria, each of the three local government areas fielded aspirants for the seat. The Peoples Democratic Party, (PDP), the dominant political association at the time, guaranteed success for its flagbearers. In the run-up to the 1999 polls, all eyes were on the PDP primaries. Shola Ojo, (Mopamuro); Tolorunjuwon Joseph Faniyi (Yagba East), Engr Sunday Karimi and Mrs Margret Orebiyi, (Yagba West) were the frontrunning aspirants. Orebiyi would later step down for Karimi. Despite the superior strength of Yagba West, which consists of 14 electoral wards, four more than Mopamuro and Yagba East with 10 electoral wards apiece, the PDP ticket was eventually decided in favour of Ojo (Mopamuro).

Ojo’s emegence was more of a consensus in an arrangement superintended by party elders under the leadership of the respected patriarch and one of the founding fathers of PDP in Nigeria, the late Chief Sunday Awoniyi. Aspirants from the two other local government areas were prevailed upon by the elders to await their turns in subsequent electoral cycles. Meanwhile, Yagba West fielded a candidate for the 1999 election in the late legal icon, Chief Tunji Arosanyin who was the flagbearer of the defunct All Peoples Party (APP). Ojo, also an attorney, hitherto domiciled in Kano, the formidable hub of commerce in northern Nigeria, went on to win the general election of that year.

Ojo served in the “Green Chamber” from 1999 to 2003. At that time, PDP’s internal, mutual understanding based on the rotation principle expressly asserted that each LGA would serve just one term, after which the position would rotate to another. Contestants for the 2003 PDP ticket included Karimi, Faniyi, Mrs Funmi Abiodun, a lawyer; the Port Harcourt based quantity surveyor and expert in the Marine sector, Bode Olorunsola and J.K Odeyemi, an engineer. The primary election was headed for a runoff between Faniyi and Karimi, but, again, the elders in their wisdom settled for a simple majority. Faniyi picked PDP ticket and he went on to defeat his opponent in the reconfigured APP, which had then become the All Nigeria People’s Party, (ANPP), Mrs Justina Abanida. Abanida, a one time Commissioner for Justice and Attorney General. Abanida, a lawyer, hails from Egbe, Yagba West Council.

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For Karimi, the waiting game continued even when the seat berthed in Yagba West. Karimi lost PDP’s ticket to a fellow Yagba West opponent, Samuel Bamidele Aro.. Aro, a successful oil marketer, won the 2007 election into the House of Representatives, which took place on April 21, 2007. He defeated Bolaji Oluwafemi of the defunct Action Congress (AC) and served in the lower parliament until 2011.

The extant rotational arrangement forbade Mopamuro and Yagba East from fielding candidates for the 2007 election. In fairness to the past occupants of the seat, performance was not a yardstick for continuity. Based on the extant zoning template of the PDP, the baton was expected to be passed back to Mopamuro in 2011. However, at the conclusion of his first term in 2011, Aro, the incumbent declared his intention for a second term. Backed by the Kogi State governor at the time, Ibrahim Idris and machinery of the ruling party at the state level, Aro defeated his lone challenger for the PDP ticket, Chief Folorunsho Daniyan, (from Mopamuro). However, the outcome of 2011 primary election that threw up Aro did not sit well with the factional PDP who beckoned on Karimi to step forward in another political party.

Karimi’s name was a last-minute inclusion in the portal of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) as the candidate of Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN). In what turned out a historic protest vote, Karimi defeated PDP’s Aro in the general election held on April 9th, 2011. The strength of the PDP had been further decimated in the aftermath of the controversies that trailed its primaries. Daniyan left PDP and flew the flag of the ANPP. He came third in the general election. For the first time, in 2011, Mopamuro, Yagba West and Yagba East all fielded candidates for the House of Representatives.

The 2011 episode effectively marked the fatal end to one term and rotation of the seat in Yagba Federal Constituency.

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Highlights

Karimi got the mandate of Yagba people to represent them in 2011 when he did not aspire for it from the start to the race and when it was supposed to be the turn of Mopamuro. He was not even on the list of aspirants jostling for the much-sought ticket of the PDP in that year’s primaries. He also became the first Yagba man to be reelected, thereby setting the precedence for continuity.

As the sitting Rep, Karimi (Yagba West) returned to his old party (PDP) and sought re-election in 2015. He picked the PDP ticket ahead of Kano based business tycoon, Leke Abejide (Yagba East) and successful civil engineer, Dele Obiniyi (Yagba East).

Karimi went on to win the parliamentary election held on March 28, 2015. He defeated Ganiyu Salaudeen of the Accord Party (AP/Yagba East), Kayode Adegbayo (APC/Yagba East), and Joseph Blessing of the Labour Party (LP/Mopamuro). Note again that all three LGAs fielded candidates in 2015.

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Subsequently, Karimi’s record was equalled by Leke Abejide (Yagba East), now on his second term. His back-to-back victory in the 2019 and 2023 elections were achieved under the platform of lesser known African Democratic Congress (ADC).

Instructively, to further butress the point that rotation may have become a thing of the past, Abejide’s victories in both elections were far from a walkover, not for him, not for Yagba East. With the exception of Yagba West, the 2019 edition was keenly contested by aspirants from Mopamuro and Yagba East. A total of 15 candidates registered with the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) to contest in the 2019 election. ADC candidate, Abejide won the election, defeating APC’s Henry Abimbola (Mopamuro), PDP’s Fabola James (Yagba East), SDP’s Oluwafemi Iselaiye (Yagba East) and 12 other candidates from Mopamuro and Yagba East. The list of candidates and their parties for the 2019 polls are as follows: Adebayo Kenneth (PPC); Oluropo Odofin Augustine (MPN); Jonathan Ayokunle Olushola (ACCORD): Balogun Blessing Olumayowa (APM); Somidire Comfort (ACPN); Atteh Oladimeji (PPN); Yusuf Mary Oluwatoyin (DA); Isah Saidu (LP); Omowaiye Ete A. (UPP); Omole David Bolorundoro (UPC) and Abdurafiu Ismail (PT).

The all-commers scenario was again replayed in 2023 when Abejide (ADC/Yagba East) ran against Folorunsho Olafemi (APC/Mopamuro), Joseph Faniyi (PDP/Yagba East).and Jeremiah Oladokun (APGA/Yagba East). The list incuded Alonge Victor Oluwabusayo (Accord), Adekunle Komolafe (NNPP), Bamigboye Sunday (ADP), Musa Lasisi (Action Alliance), Jethro Olusegun Solomon (SDP) and Obiniyi Bamidele (YPP).

Rotation Can Only Be By Negotiation, Not Entitlement Claim

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Ahead of the 2027 election, a notable Yagba political figure who preferred anonymity due to the sensitive nature of the debate on the continuity of rotation representation told our reporter that based on the foregoing, if at all there would be further adherence to rotation, “it can only be by negotiation, not by entitlement claim”.

He said: “The rotational arrangement for the HOR election in Yagbaland has been a straightforward and adaptable practice since inception. This arrangement was designed to give each local government in the federal constituency a fair opportunity. The Yagba federal constituency comprises three local government areas: Yagba West, Yagba East, and Mopamuro. Historically, Mopamuro was the first local government to benefit from this arrangement in 1999 with Hon. Sola Ojo, followed by Yagba East with Hon. T.J. Faniyi in 2003. In 2007, Hon. Sam Aro benefited from the rotation, and in 2011, it was Yagba West’s turn again with Hon. Sunday Karimi, who served two terms. This two-term pattern continued with Hon. Leke Abejide from Yagba East in 2019, who is currently serving his second term. Ideally, after Hon. Leke Abejide’s second term, Mopamuro local government should be the next to benefit from the rotation and to spend their two terms. However, Mopamuro’s inconsistent adherence to the rotation has been a significant constraint.

In the last two elections, Mopamuro fielded candidates against Hon. Leke Abejide, which was unfortunate as their action demonstrated their disregard for the rotation. Mr Tuesday Abimbola and Engr Folorunsho Olafemi contested twice with Leke Abejide. If they had won, it would have also conflicted the entire process. As an experienced political figure in Yagba federal constituency, I cautioned Mopamuro aspirants to respect the rotation and not contest against Yagba East candidates. Unfortunately, my warnings were ignored, and Mopamuro’s actions have put them at a disadvantage. If Mopamuro had respected the rotation and not contested against Yagba East in the last two elections, it would have been incumbent on Yagba East not to run against them. However, since Mopamuro did contest, Yagba East’s potential third term would alter the rotation cycle, making Yagba West eligible to contest after Yagba East.

It will take a proper consultation and a United front from Mopamuro to sustain their alliance with the rotation which they had kicked against”.

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As it were, from the viewpoints of public affairs analysts and political pundits, Mopamuro has held the seat one-term of four years since 1999, Yagba West had 3 terms of 12 years and Yagba East two terms of eight years. From the foregoing, Mopamuro’s agitation to have the 2027 HOR seat is not out of order. The point has also been made for the entrenchment of fairness and equity as well as the sustenance of unity within the region. One can not also rule out the fact that, with the exception of 2003 election, Mopamuro has consistently fielded candidates against candidates from Yagba West and Yagba East.

Twice in 2019 and 2023, the ruling APC conceded its tickets to Mopamuro. Both chances were lost more to internal divisions within the local government. Power is not given; it is taken. The bottomline is that 2027 election doesn’t look like one to be determined by entitlement. Rotation is achievable only by negotiation. Rotation is not a law. Mopamuro must work hard for it, speak with one voice, and present a formidable candidate, as a prerequisite for negotiation.

Effective Representation As a Factor

While the idea of rotation may seem appealing, the performance of the sitting member and the capacity to drive meaningful development and growth are key factors in effective representation, which should not be overlooked going into the 2027 election. Rotation may seem like a fair and equitable approach, but the electorate is also aware it can lead to a lack of continuity and consistency in representation. This also can result in a lack of accountability, as representatives may not feel compelled to deliver on their promises. Furthermore, rotation can lead to a focus on short-term gains rather than long-term development. Again, anyone thinking of running against an incumbent must make a careful examination of whether it can be done.

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In the modern-day election pattern in Nigeria, incumbents win elections about 85 percent. An entrenched incumbent is even harder to beat than a more recently elected one. Here are some factors to consider before going into the decision of whether a challenge could be successful. The first step is to consider the overall political environment and the general mood of the electorate. Generally, there are two things that should worry incumbents.

One is whether the electorate perceives that things are on the right track. The other is whether the electorate thinks the incumbent care about them. For any sitting representative who receives favourable ratings from his people—based on these two factors—it will require an out-of
-this-world strategy for any successful challenge to happen.

● Debo Alabi, a public affairs analyst and native of Yagba, writes from Lekki, Lagos

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Opinion

MEMORY LANE: West-Idahosa reflects on his earthly sojourn to commemorate birthday

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By Dr. Ehiogie West-Idahosa, SAN.

By the Grace of God, I am one year older today. I was born on this day many years ago in St. Philomena’s Hospital, Benin City to Late Hon. Justice Joseph Oghogho Idahosa and late Mrs.Josphine Idahosa.

“I am grateful to God for His mercies and benevolence in my life. I have luckily navigated many dangerous moments in life by the Grace of Almighty God and the prayers of my families and friends. They include police shooting incident at ibadan as a young lawyer, nearly drowning in a big river, receiving middle voltage electricity shock as a child and a host of other mines that are daily encountered in life. I thank God for my ancestry. I thank my late parents for my education and upbringing. I am lucky to have an an extremely good wife and very wonderful children. I thank my brothers, sisters and extended family members for who they are. Very supportive people. I have wonderful friends all over Nigeria and beyond.

I have been lucky to be trusted by by different levels of the Nigerian society to serve in one capacity or the other. By the authority of others, I have served as Sanitary Prefect in Edo College, Benin City, Public relations officer of the Law Students Association, Uniben, Public relations officer of the students’ union, Uniben, branch secretary of Benin branch of NBA, Edo State Secretary of the defunct National Republican Convention (NRC), and thrice elected to the House Representatives, where I served Ovia Federal Constituency, Edo State and Nigeria to the best of my ability and energy. My sojourn in the House is known to many and they are the only persons who can write my testimonial.

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I am grateful to Nigeria, Edo people and in particular, the wonderful constituents of Ovia Federal Constituency ( living and dead) for the opportunities given to me to serve them amongst so many ably qualified persons.

I enjoyed the good old Nigeria and hope that it can be recreated for the benefit of the majority of our country men and women. We had patriotic and well meaning leaders who were committed to good governance. They were industrious and nationalistic within the limits of available resources, knowledge, science and energy of that time. It has been tough for our country men and women in the last ten years or so.

But, the Tinubu regime seems to be willing to make big economic decisions in the hope of repositioning our national economy to serve all of us. Some of these decisions have been hurtful in many ways to the majority of our people as they were not incrementally implemented. But, these decisions would only be appreciated, if the dividends intended, begin to trickle down soon. This would mean more fiscal and monetary policy discipline on the part of government itself. There must be a cut on the cost of governance. There is too much of Holly wood life style on the part of public officials. The essence of governance is to serve the people, not to show off with public funds held in trust for the public. They are not personal funds and must be spent prudently for the good of all.

The fight against corruption must be made real. It must be carried out with a sense of equality before the law. As long as many remain untouchable by the law, the fight would remain cosmetic and negatively affect the quality of lives of all of us as funds made to develop our country would continue to vanish into thin air

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The increased funding of the component states of Nigeria by Tinubu’s administration is good news indeed. It means that the governors can truly do extraordinary things for residents of the various states, as part of the renewed hope project. They have to noticeably decrease the ratio of infant and maternal mortality. They must work to provide more functional health care centers in urban and rural areas, pay real attention to education from primary to post secondary levels. Significantly, they must give new impetus to tecnical education. It is the way to go in the new world order. The state governments must commit to massive provision of infrastructure in key areas of the economy. They must take a good look at the need to generate more electricity in their states to boost economic development. They must venture into rail transportation. It is the easiest way to move people around in large numbers. It can be done. Lagos state is already leading the way. Others can do the same. It is a matter of exhibiting the requisite political will to do it.

State governments know the importance of security in their respective states. It is not enough to openly support the police with funds, it is equally important to set up covert informal intelligence networks across the states to provide information for the use of formal security apparatus in carrying their out functions.

Nigeria can be great again. It has the raw population, man power, presence in diaspora, sufficient elites in various spheres of life to drive the renaissance.

God bless Nigeria and best wishes to all of us.

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Dr. Ehiogie West-Idahosa, SAN

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