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Opinion

Africa not yet big players on 5G coverage

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By Sonny Aragba-Akpore

Despite spirited efforts by African countries to join the global community in the adoption of fifth generation (5G) technology,and the race for better internet services,less than six percent of the sub Saharan population has access to the technology.

While many countries are already providing robust services,Africa remains on the outskirts of 5G services.

The countries in Africa that have launched 5G networks, include South Africa with its roll out
In March 2022, when the Independent Communications Authority of South Africa (ICASA) sold spectrum across several bands.

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In Nigeria,MTN rolled out commercial 5G services in Lagos in 2022, with other roll out in Abuja, Port Harcourt, Ibadan, Kano, Owerri, and Maiduguri among others.

MTN Congo announced that it was the first country in Central Africa to deploy 5G.

In Botswana Orange deployed 5G technology to provide new services in the Gaborone and Francistown regions.
Other countries in Africa that have launched 5G Fixed Wireless Access (FWA) services include: Angola, Kenya, Zambia, and Zimbabwe.

Analysts say “5G’s potential is growing due to its ability to deliver fiber-like speeds. However, there are still challenges in the region, such as:
Urban areas are reaching their maximum capacity whereas a large portion of the population lives in rural areas.

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This explains why 5G adoption in the sub-Saharan region is currently below six percent “
Analysts report that 5G deployment in Africa faces many challenges, including Spectrum assignment,regulatory issues,infrastructure,security,financial resources among others.

“Spectrum is a limited resource that is already in use by other services, such as TV broadcasters and satellite operators. Governments need to open up frequencies and grant 5G licenses at reasonable prices. “

Infrastructure is another major challenge.

“5G networks require a large initial investment, including expensive devices, antennas, and Radio Access Network (RAN) hardware. The infrastructure needs to be fiberized to support 5G services.
Regulatory conditions also serve as challenges to deployment.

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For instance “regulatory authorities may not have started the process for licensing and granting frequencies in the right portion “
“Most of the equipment and devices required for 5G deployment need to be imported.”

There are also security challenges that make
5G technology vulnerable to cyber security threats, such as tracking calls and exposing user locations.

Adoption of 5G deployment may take longer than expected across the continent and may take even longer in some countries as a result of Socioeconomic considerations especially in terms of 5G pricing structures that need to be compatible with the economies of African countries.

Urban/rural drift is listed as a major challenge more so since
Urban areas may have reached maximum capacity due to site density and available spectrum.

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Analysts list Some strategies to address these challenges as “adapting legacy systems, Collaborating to enhance infrastructure, Future-proofing networks, Reusing existing spectrum assets, and Releasing low-band frequencies alongside mid-band frequencies. “

The International Telecommunication Union (ITU), says 5G coverage reached 40% of the world’s population in 2023 with an uneven coverage and distribution with developed countries having more coverage than low-income countries:
In Europe ,68% of the population is covered
Americas had 59% of the population covered while
Asia-Pacific has 42% of the population covered as at 2023.

Arab States have 12% of the population covered.

Commonwealth Independent of States (CIS) have 8% of the population covered.
ITU figures show Africa,s coverage rose to 6% of the population by 2023 .

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The ITU also notes that 90% of the world’s population is covered by 4G, but 55% of people without access to 4G live in low-income countries. In low-income countries, 3G is often the only technology available to connect to the Internet.

The ITU develops and adopts international regulations and global standards to enable the harmonization and implementation of broadband mobile networks.

The world’s first commercial 5G services launched in 2019 in South Korea, with the US, UK, Germany, and China quickly following. In most of the world, 5G is now blossoming.

The US now reports 5,000 cities covered, and China says it has over 250 million 5G subscriptions, served by two million 5G base stations.

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Network provider Ericsson says there will be one billion connections worldwide by the end of this year, beating 4G’s rollout by two years
With Ericsson predicting five billion 5G subscribers by 2028, the equivalent of 60 percent of the world’s population, it is possible to think that the whole world is adopting 5G – but we may be wrong. One entire continent is falling behind in 5G.

In Africa, around a dozen nations have launched services (Botswana, Kenya, Mauritius, Madagascar, Nigeria, Seychelles, South Africa, Tanzania, Togo, Zimbabwe, and Zambia) but Africa is a patchwork of 54 countries.

And penetration is predicted to be slow. By 2027, Ericsson predicts that 80 percent of phone users in Europe will have 5G service.

At the same time, 5G subscriptions in Africa, home to 1.4 billion people, will hit just 10 percent. Why will so few people in Africa get access to 5G services?
China, South Korea, the United Kingdom, Germany, and the United States are the leading countries with robust 5G coverage in the world.

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Since the first commercial launches of the fifth generation of mobile networks in late 2018, these five countries have emerged as leaders because multiple companies in these countries have deployed networks and are selling compatible devices.

Countries including Switzerland and Finland are up and comers in 5G development, as they have limited deployment.

In China there are three Companies leading in deployment.
The world’s largest 5G network was launched by the three largest Chinese network operators Oct 31, 2019, according to the state-run news agency Xinhua.

These are China Mobile, China Unicom, and China Telecom which all activated their networks in less than five months after they were issued 5G licenses. Each of the network operators offered their 5G services at $18 per month in 50 Chinese cities at the beginning of the launch.

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“What we are seeing is a concerted effort by the Chinese — the operators, vendors, and government regulators — to deploy 5G as quickly as possible,” Chris Nicoll, principal analyst at ACG Research, pointed this out in a Nov 1, 2019 SDxCentral article.

With all of these players working together, the three network operators had collectively deployed nearly 86,000 5G base stations peaked over 130,000 by the end of 2019.

The latter number breaks down into China Unicom and China telecom, with each planning to install 40,000 base stations, and the market leader China Mobile to install 50,000.This was the projection by 2019 but they have since overshot this by the beginning of 2024.

The Global System of Mobile Association (GSMA)expects 36% of China’s mobile users to be using 5G by 2025. That’s about 600 million subscribers, who would also make up 40% of the entire global 5G market by that year.

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This is all despite efforts made by the United States government to hamper the progress of Chinese vendors, though those efforts may affect how Chinese companies may expand into the global market.

In South Korea,SK Telecom and Korea Telecom run as the main competitors for the South Korean 5G market.

SK Telecom acquired spectrum in the 3.5 GHz and 28 GHz frequencies to prepare for deploying 5G.

In April of 2019, the Enterprise claimed to be the first mobile carrier in the world to launch 5G services to work on 5G smartphones.

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SK Telecom asserted an edge over rival Verizon, as the former launched 5G services available at the same time as Samsung Galaxy S10 5G smartphone launched in South Korea. Verizon launched mobile 5G services in the U.S. before a 5G enabled smartphone was available to U.S. consumers.

SK Telecom has also conducted tests with a 5G Standalone (SA) Core (a core not reliant on the 4G network) for their 5G network in cooperation with Samsung Electronics.

In early 2017, KT rolled out a 5G trial network ahead of the 2018 Winter Olympics in Pyeongchang, South Korea. However, the network was used primarily for demonstrations as it was not accessible by attendees’ smartphones.

At the time, the reception was lukewarm. Since then, KT’s network has expanded to cover the country’s most populated areas and the operator claims to have “the world’s first nationwide commercial 5G wireless network.”

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Consumers have played a crucial role in turning South Korea into a 5G country. According to research from IHS Markit, South Korean consumers have been purchasing 5G devices so quickly that stores can’t stay in stock. It only took 69 days for South Korea to reach one million subscribers to 5G services after the initial network launch.

The United Kingdom’s four Providers Launched their services throughout 2019.
EE, Vodafone UK, Three UK, and O2 UK launched commercial deployments in the U.K. These operators are using equipment namely from Ericsson, Nokia, and Huawei.
O2 UK is an exception in that it’s not using Huawei equipment, despite running 5G radio access network (ran) tests with it.

Three UK announced an unlimited data service that is speed-cap free at no extra cost.

To speed up rollouts of active 5G equipment, Vodafone UK reached a deal with O2 UK to share equipment, which can be seen with radio antennas on joint network sites.

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Cornerstone Telecommunications Infrastructure also manages shared facilities for operators.
Vodafone reached similar agreements in Italy and Spain for shared infrastructure.

In Germany,Vodafone and Deutsche Lead 5G Market.

In 2019, Vodafone Germany and Deutsche Telekom Germany launched 5G services in several cities. Vodafone Germany started with 20 cities and municipalities (including Cologne and Dusseldorf), while Deutsche Telekom Germany launched in only six (including Berlin and Munich). Vodafone plans to offer 5G services for $5.61 less per month than Deutsche Telekom.

When the German government auctioned off spectrum bands, a new player, 1&1 Drillisch, came into the picture by bidding $1.2 billion for 70 megahertz of spectrum.
However, the company waited till 2021 to use the new spectrum.

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In Sept. 2018 the Federal Communications Commission of the USA announced its 5G FAST Plan in an effort to advance the country’s position among the countries that have deployed 5G networks.

Part of this plan included spectrum auctions. In March 2016, prior to the official start of the 5G FAST plan, the FCC hosted an “incentive auction” that began repurposing spectrum and opening up low-band spectrum for wireless Broadband that can be used for 5G networks. A second auction of the upper 37 GHz, 39 GHz, and 47 GHz bands was set for 2019.

Money raised from these auctions was used to bring high-speed Broadband to the rural U.S.

In August 2020, T-Mobile US became the first telecom operator in the world to launch an SA 5G network with a 5G core. This came after a merger with Sprint was completed in April 2020.

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This is significant, in that T-Mobile US surpassed AT&T, Verizon, and SK Telecom. AT&T was the expected winner of the race to 5G in the U.S. and SK Telecom was the favorite to have the world’s first SA 5G network.

Both had plans to have a network with SA 5G architecture by early 2020 but did not meet those benchmarks.
AT&T and Verizon are still part of the 5G conversation in the U.S., although it’s debated which of those two was truly first to market.

In December 2018, AT&T was the first U.S. carrier to launch a standards-based mobile 5G network servicing a dozen cities, albeit without any 5G-enabled devices.

In October 2018, Verizon was the first to have a non-standards-based deployment that was actually a fixed Broadband network in four cities.

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In March 2019, Verizon turned on its standards-based 5G network in Minneapolis and Chicago, also before mobile 5G devices were available.

Verizon began selling Samsung Galaxy S10 5G on May 16, 2019 and claims it will have 5G in 30 cities by the end of 2019. As of August 2019, AT&T had deployed 5G in 21 cities and claimed the 5G network would be deployed in 30 states by the end of 2019.

The ITU continues to release information on standardizations that could cushion speedy deployment across global communities and markets especially in the race to actualise universal coverage by 2030 to meet and actualise the Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) target.

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Opinion

Playing games with telecom tariff hikes

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By Sonny Aragba-Akpore

In what sounded like a death knell or an epilogue as we know it in literature,Association of Licenced Telecoms Operators of Nigeria (ALTON )chairman, Gbenga Adebayo, warned that “if nothing is done, we might begin to see in the new year grim consequences unfolding, such as Service Shedding; Operators may not be able to provide services in some areas and at some times of the day leaving millions disconnected, there will be significant economic Fallout, because businesses will suffer from lack of connectivity, stalling growth and innovation. There will also be national economic disruption where key sectors like security, commerce, healthcare, and education which rely heavily on telecom infrastructure, will face serious disruptions.”

This is frightening should the threat be carried out with full force.

But can the operators act unilaterally?The answer is no and that is where the game begins.

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Only last week the government agreed to demands for tariff hikes in the telecommunication industry. This is expected in the coming weeks, as the government aims to address sustainability challenges in the telecom sector. This implies that prices of calls, data and SMS will go up for the average Nigerian.

However, the hike will fall short of the 100 percent increase requested by service providers, with the government seeking to balance sector growth and protecting Nigerians from excessive financial burdens.Bosun Tijani, the minister of communications, innovation, and digital economy, disclosed this during an industry stakeholder forum in Abuja on Wednesday January 8,2025.

Similarly the NCC introduced the Guidance for the Simplification of Tariffs signed out by NCC Chief on November 25,2024 stating among other things that :”This Guidance is pursuant to the regulatory powers of the Nigerian Communications Commission (Commission) under Sections 3, 108 and 109 of the Nigerian

Communications Act 2003 (Act) as well as relevant subsidiary legislations empowering the Commission in that regard. It is also in furtherance of the mandate of the Commission to regulate communications services and ensure consumer protection in the sector.

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The Commission hereby issues this Amended Guidance for the simplification of tariff plans, bundles and promotional activities that include tariffs. This Guidance is designed to enhance transparency, improve consumer understanding and foster fair competition”.

It doesn’t stop there as the guidelines also elaborate on what is possible: “For the USSD platform, the following information should be included when a subscriber requests details of their tariff plan
o Name of Plan
o Validity Period (if applicable) Indicate rate per second (and rate per
minute) on-net/off-net
o Indicate rate per megabyte/kilobyte/gigabyte
o Indicate rate per SMS on-net/off-net
o The number of Add-ons subscribed to

Additional Conditions for Tariff Approvals
Operators must offer standalone data bundles, at fair prices to avoid tying consumers with products they do not need Bonuses on promotions must be stated in actual value.For all tariff plans, both the Main and Bonus accounts must deplete at rates within stipulated price floors and caps.

Bundles with shorter validity periods should be prioritized for depletion.
Options for subscribers who exhaust their bundle allowance within the stipulated
validity period should include:
o Purchase of a top-up bundle
o Purchase of a new bundle
o Switch to the default rate of his/her plan

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Any Operator wishing to offer services on third-party platforms (Banking applications, etc.) at discounted rates must obtain and comply with the explicit approval received from the Commission (Hot Deals, personalized/ below-the-
line offers, Cashback etc.)

Existing personalised offers approved by the Commission can remain active for the duration of the validity period of the approval. However, the Commission will continue to monitor the market and make necessary
interventions when required.

Below-the-line/personalised offers, Fixed/Fixed Wireless Services, and Device
Financing Propositions must be presented for the Commission’s prior approval process.

No one has ever challenged the powers of telecommunications regulators,the Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC) to regulate the sector which is believed to be the engine room of the economy.

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With over 14% contributions to the Gross Domestic Product’s (GDP) and one the biggest single contributors, telecommunications affects every fabric of the Nigerian life.

Understandably then, if the sector players experience haemorhage as a result of economic headwinds, then the economy is truly troubled.

The operators complain loudly that government may have decided to give out telecom services as palliative to Nigerians against the wishes of of Mobile Network Operators (MNOS) therefore suffocating their business.
They alleged that the regulator is playing games, especially against the backdrop of its inability to hearken to their cries of tariff hike.

But the regulator thinks differently as it says the Nigerian Communications Act (2003) especially sections 108 and 109 empowered it to treat such issues in that regard.

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The position and powers of the regulator have never been questioned by any of the industry stakeholders. What the operators are saying, for instance, is that some of the regulations by the Commission are so stale that they have little or no impact on modern business operations that can lead to growth or renewal of the industry.

At the time, NCC lost the voice to proclaim the provisions of the Act in Sections 108 and 109 which have no tolerance for the meddlesomeness of a minister or even the President of the Republic if he wanted to supervene. The operators did not also test the provisions of the Act in the Court.

One operator confessed in trepidation that “it’s already very tough doing business in Nigeria. We don’t want the government to come after use with all its powers.”one analyst summed up the NCC imbroglio at a time a Minister,s unnecessary place in the gallery truncated the 10% tariff hike which ended up as a Greek gift .And later short lived thus creating telecommunications as palliative to subscribers who do not have an idea of what operators are living through.

Even the operators are obviously ignorant of the floor price template as another analysis summed it up:
“Once a Floor and a Ceiling have been put in place, playing wthin the band doesn’t need the approval of the NCC,” another source affirmed.

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Perhaps in trying to enjoy this regulatory latitude, the operators in 2022 requested for, and got a 10 percent tariff increase on Voice and Data services from the NCC. The Commission reversed itself after a few days, saying the priority of the Minister Isa Pantami was to protect the citizens and ensure justice for all stakeholders. An NCC source told this writer that the reversal was unilaterally done by the minister who coerced the regulator to receive the fall.”

Telecom industry is under heavy burden according to ALTON Chairman, Adebayo.
Emphasizing that without the tariff review, operators cannot continue to guarantee service availability, the ALTON Chairman said though the challenges being faced by the telcos are not new, they have become more acute and more threatening with this passing year.

He noted that rising operational costs, skyrocketing energy costs, the relentless pressure of inflation, and volatile exchange rates, amongst others, have all placed an unsustainable burden on network operators.
Adebayo added that despite these mounting pressures, tariffs have remained stagnant, leaving operators trapped in a financial quagmire.

According to him, the resources needed to maintain, expand, and modernize telecom networks are no longer available and without intervention, “the future of this sector is at grave risk.”

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Keeping the sector afloat
The ALTON Chairman noted that stakeholders have done their best over the years to sustain the sector by upholding the values and importance of telecommunications in society.

“However, let me be clear: our work is far from over. It is not enough to have kept the sector afloat; we must now focus on securing its future. The sustainability challenges we face today are not just a passing storm—they are a clarion call for decisive action to ensure that this industry thrives for generations to come.
Due to the increasing costs, telecom operators in Nigeria have since last year been clamouring for an increase in tariffs.

In a joint statement by the Association of Licensed Telecom Operators of Nigeria (ALTON) and The Association of Telecommunication Companies of Nigeria (ATCON), the operators said the telecom industry is the only industry that has not reviewed its prices despite the rising inflation in the country and other economic realities that warrant increment.

They blamed this on the regulatory restraints that have been preventing them from pricing appropriately.
The Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC) regulates prices in the telecom industry and telecom operators are not allowed to implement any price change without the regulator’s approval.

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The regulator has said a cost-based study is being conducted to determine if it would approve price increments for the operators.

But the 2022 and 2024 proposals as announced by Toriola were truncated in August 2024 when ALTON traded off the proposals because of alleged misrepresentation saying the misrepresentation of the good intention of telecom operators to secure a slight adjustment on end-user tariff on voice calls and data services has led to the carriers slowing down on the push.

The operators, acting under the aegis of Association of Licensed Telecom Operators of Nigeria (ALTON), had sought the imprimatur of the Federal Government, via the Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC), to adjust call and data tariff to reflect cost of operation in the country.

The NCC had refused to accede to their demand, a decision insiders said was based on political expediency. In a pushback, the telcos had said their services should not be used as palliative to cushion the impact of ongoing economic hardships in the country.

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In May 2022,the mobile network operators (MNOS) proposed 40% increase in tariffs.

The operators under the auspices of Association of Licensed Telecommunication Operators of Nigeria (ALTON), proposed a 40 per cent hike in call and SMS tariffs.

The operators said the decision was necessary considering the rising cost of doing business.

A letter to the NCC said the fee for calls will increase from N6.4 to N8.95 while the price cap for SMS will increase from N4 to N5.61.

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The association said the telecommunications industry had been financially challenged by an economic downturn that occurred during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war.

ALTON added that the introduction of the five percent excise duty on telecom service providers has heightened the burden of multiple taxes and levies on the industry.

“ALTON considers it expedient for the telecommunications sector to undergo periodic cost adjustments through the commission’s intervention in order to minimise the impact of the challenging economic issues faced by our members,” it said.

“Upward review of the price determination for voice and data and SMS. Given the state of the economy and the circa 40 per cent increase in the cost of doing business, we wish to request for an interim administrative review of the mobile (voice) termination rate for voice; administrative data floor price, and cost of SMS as reflected in extant instruments.

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“For data services, we wish to request that the commission implements the recommendations in the August 2020 KPMG report on the determination of cost-based pricing for wholesale and retail broadband service in Nigeria. Excerpts from the report are attached and marked ‘Annexure 2’ to provide a further illustration,” it added.

When he spoke unanimously on national tv Toriola said “We at MTN believe we need adjustment of about 100 per cent, I think the industry is pretty much aligned because we are all experiencing the same headwinds. Now, the government is very sensitive to squeezing consumers’ wallets with the pressures that have come from inflation and currency devaluation on consumers.

Toriola was very optimistic that the government of Nigeria will accede to the proposed 100% tariff increase eventually all things being equal.

Toriola carried the cross and burden of the embattled sector when he spoke on national television last week Friday.
While bragging that telecommunications had impacted positively on the economy (he was right anyway) he is worried that not much encouragement has come from government.

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But that is where he miscalculated.

Although he felt justified that a tariff increase is sine quanon,there are several untapped layers of this question.

“So, I’m not sure they will give us 100 per cent, but I am optimistic they will give us something substantial and maybe progressively over the course of the year we can have smaller adjustments that will help us to get back to where we need to be,” Toriola said.

The MTN CEO said that almost every other sector in the country, including aviation and power have increased tariffs except the telecoms industry.

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According to him, all the bodies that look into the statistics of the telecoms industry globally have disclosed that Nigeria has probably the second or third lowest tariffs in the world on data as well as on voice.

If Toriola and his strange bedfellows return to the Floor price determination of 2016 and 2020 and the various studies carried out in that regard ,he will see a number of windows that could address the nightmare and save both the regulator Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC) and the rest of us these agonizing times.

Strangely,non of the operators has hit the maximum threshold of 50 naira per minute because of the competition to outdo each other by playing to the gallery in order to play smart and scurry subscribers attentions.

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Opinion

Did Yagba Federal Constituency Rotation Arrangement End in 2011?

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By Debo Alabi

Yagba Federal Constituency in the western Kogi senatorial zone, consists of three local councils, namely Mopamuro, Yagba East and Yagba West. In 1999, at the outset of the Fourth Republic political dispensation in Nigeria, each of the three local government areas fielded aspirants for the seat. The Peoples Democratic Party, (PDP), the dominant political association at the time, guaranteed success for its flagbearers. In the run-up to the 1999 polls, all eyes were on the PDP primaries. Shola Ojo, (Mopamuro); Tolorunjuwon Joseph Faniyi (Yagba East), Engr Sunday Karimi and Mrs Margret Orebiyi, (Yagba West) were the frontrunning aspirants. Orebiyi would later step down for Karimi. Despite the superior strength of Yagba West, which consists of 14 electoral wards, four more than Mopamuro and Yagba East with 10 electoral wards apiece, the PDP ticket was eventually decided in favour of Ojo (Mopamuro).

Ojo’s emegence was more of a consensus in an arrangement superintended by party elders under the leadership of the respected patriarch and one of the founding fathers of PDP in Nigeria, the late Chief Sunday Awoniyi. Aspirants from the two other local government areas were prevailed upon by the elders to await their turns in subsequent electoral cycles. Meanwhile, Yagba West fielded a candidate for the 1999 election in the late legal icon, Chief Tunji Arosanyin who was the flagbearer of the defunct All Peoples Party (APP). Ojo, also an attorney, hitherto domiciled in Kano, the formidable hub of commerce in northern Nigeria, went on to win the general election of that year.

Ojo served in the “Green Chamber” from 1999 to 2003. At that time, PDP’s internal, mutual understanding based on the rotation principle expressly asserted that each LGA would serve just one term, after which the position would rotate to another. Contestants for the 2003 PDP ticket included Karimi, Faniyi, Mrs Funmi Abiodun, a lawyer; the Port Harcourt based quantity surveyor and expert in the Marine sector, Bode Olorunsola and J.K Odeyemi, an engineer. The primary election was headed for a runoff between Faniyi and Karimi, but, again, the elders in their wisdom settled for a simple majority. Faniyi picked PDP ticket and he went on to defeat his opponent in the reconfigured APP, which had then become the All Nigeria People’s Party, (ANPP), Mrs Justina Abanida. Abanida, a one time Commissioner for Justice and Attorney General. Abanida, a lawyer, hails from Egbe, Yagba West Council.

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For Karimi, the waiting game continued even when the seat berthed in Yagba West. Karimi lost PDP’s ticket to a fellow Yagba West opponent, Samuel Bamidele Aro.. Aro, a successful oil marketer, won the 2007 election into the House of Representatives, which took place on April 21, 2007. He defeated Bolaji Oluwafemi of the defunct Action Congress (AC) and served in the lower parliament until 2011.

The extant rotational arrangement forbade Mopamuro and Yagba East from fielding candidates for the 2007 election. In fairness to the past occupants of the seat, performance was not a yardstick for continuity. Based on the extant zoning template of the PDP, the baton was expected to be passed back to Mopamuro in 2011. However, at the conclusion of his first term in 2011, Aro, the incumbent declared his intention for a second term. Backed by the Kogi State governor at the time, Ibrahim Idris and machinery of the ruling party at the state level, Aro defeated his lone challenger for the PDP ticket, Chief Folorunsho Daniyan, (from Mopamuro). However, the outcome of 2011 primary election that threw up Aro did not sit well with the factional PDP who beckoned on Karimi to step forward in another political party.

Karimi’s name was a last-minute inclusion in the portal of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) as the candidate of Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN). In what turned out a historic protest vote, Karimi defeated PDP’s Aro in the general election held on April 9th, 2011. The strength of the PDP had been further decimated in the aftermath of the controversies that trailed its primaries. Daniyan left PDP and flew the flag of the ANPP. He came third in the general election. For the first time, in 2011, Mopamuro, Yagba West and Yagba East all fielded candidates for the House of Representatives.

The 2011 episode effectively marked the fatal end to one term and rotation of the seat in Yagba Federal Constituency.

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Highlights

Karimi got the mandate of Yagba people to represent them in 2011 when he did not aspire for it from the start to the race and when it was supposed to be the turn of Mopamuro. He was not even on the list of aspirants jostling for the much-sought ticket of the PDP in that year’s primaries. He also became the first Yagba man to be reelected, thereby setting the precedence for continuity.

As the sitting Rep, Karimi (Yagba West) returned to his old party (PDP) and sought re-election in 2015. He picked the PDP ticket ahead of Kano based business tycoon, Leke Abejide (Yagba East) and successful civil engineer, Dele Obiniyi (Yagba East).

Karimi went on to win the parliamentary election held on March 28, 2015. He defeated Ganiyu Salaudeen of the Accord Party (AP/Yagba East), Kayode Adegbayo (APC/Yagba East), and Joseph Blessing of the Labour Party (LP/Mopamuro). Note again that all three LGAs fielded candidates in 2015.

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Subsequently, Karimi’s record was equalled by Leke Abejide (Yagba East), now on his second term. His back-to-back victory in the 2019 and 2023 elections were achieved under the platform of lesser known African Democratic Congress (ADC).

Instructively, to further butress the point that rotation may have become a thing of the past, Abejide’s victories in both elections were far from a walkover, not for him, not for Yagba East. With the exception of Yagba West, the 2019 edition was keenly contested by aspirants from Mopamuro and Yagba East. A total of 15 candidates registered with the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) to contest in the 2019 election. ADC candidate, Abejide won the election, defeating APC’s Henry Abimbola (Mopamuro), PDP’s Fabola James (Yagba East), SDP’s Oluwafemi Iselaiye (Yagba East) and 12 other candidates from Mopamuro and Yagba East. The list of candidates and their parties for the 2019 polls are as follows: Adebayo Kenneth (PPC); Oluropo Odofin Augustine (MPN); Jonathan Ayokunle Olushola (ACCORD): Balogun Blessing Olumayowa (APM); Somidire Comfort (ACPN); Atteh Oladimeji (PPN); Yusuf Mary Oluwatoyin (DA); Isah Saidu (LP); Omowaiye Ete A. (UPP); Omole David Bolorundoro (UPC) and Abdurafiu Ismail (PT).

The all-commers scenario was again replayed in 2023 when Abejide (ADC/Yagba East) ran against Folorunsho Olafemi (APC/Mopamuro), Joseph Faniyi (PDP/Yagba East).and Jeremiah Oladokun (APGA/Yagba East). The list incuded Alonge Victor Oluwabusayo (Accord), Adekunle Komolafe (NNPP), Bamigboye Sunday (ADP), Musa Lasisi (Action Alliance), Jethro Olusegun Solomon (SDP) and Obiniyi Bamidele (YPP).

Rotation Can Only Be By Negotiation, Not Entitlement Claim

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Ahead of the 2027 election, a notable Yagba political figure who preferred anonymity due to the sensitive nature of the debate on the continuity of rotation representation told our reporter that based on the foregoing, if at all there would be further adherence to rotation, “it can only be by negotiation, not by entitlement claim”.

He said: “The rotational arrangement for the HOR election in Yagbaland has been a straightforward and adaptable practice since inception. This arrangement was designed to give each local government in the federal constituency a fair opportunity. The Yagba federal constituency comprises three local government areas: Yagba West, Yagba East, and Mopamuro. Historically, Mopamuro was the first local government to benefit from this arrangement in 1999 with Hon. Sola Ojo, followed by Yagba East with Hon. T.J. Faniyi in 2003. In 2007, Hon. Sam Aro benefited from the rotation, and in 2011, it was Yagba West’s turn again with Hon. Sunday Karimi, who served two terms. This two-term pattern continued with Hon. Leke Abejide from Yagba East in 2019, who is currently serving his second term. Ideally, after Hon. Leke Abejide’s second term, Mopamuro local government should be the next to benefit from the rotation and to spend their two terms. However, Mopamuro’s inconsistent adherence to the rotation has been a significant constraint.

In the last two elections, Mopamuro fielded candidates against Hon. Leke Abejide, which was unfortunate as their action demonstrated their disregard for the rotation. Mr Tuesday Abimbola and Engr Folorunsho Olafemi contested twice with Leke Abejide. If they had won, it would have also conflicted the entire process. As an experienced political figure in Yagba federal constituency, I cautioned Mopamuro aspirants to respect the rotation and not contest against Yagba East candidates. Unfortunately, my warnings were ignored, and Mopamuro’s actions have put them at a disadvantage. If Mopamuro had respected the rotation and not contested against Yagba East in the last two elections, it would have been incumbent on Yagba East not to run against them. However, since Mopamuro did contest, Yagba East’s potential third term would alter the rotation cycle, making Yagba West eligible to contest after Yagba East.

It will take a proper consultation and a United front from Mopamuro to sustain their alliance with the rotation which they had kicked against”.

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As it were, from the viewpoints of public affairs analysts and political pundits, Mopamuro has held the seat one-term of four years since 1999, Yagba West had 3 terms of 12 years and Yagba East two terms of eight years. From the foregoing, Mopamuro’s agitation to have the 2027 HOR seat is not out of order. The point has also been made for the entrenchment of fairness and equity as well as the sustenance of unity within the region. One can not also rule out the fact that, with the exception of 2003 election, Mopamuro has consistently fielded candidates against candidates from Yagba West and Yagba East.

Twice in 2019 and 2023, the ruling APC conceded its tickets to Mopamuro. Both chances were lost more to internal divisions within the local government. Power is not given; it is taken. The bottomline is that 2027 election doesn’t look like one to be determined by entitlement. Rotation is achievable only by negotiation. Rotation is not a law. Mopamuro must work hard for it, speak with one voice, and present a formidable candidate, as a prerequisite for negotiation.

Effective Representation As a Factor

While the idea of rotation may seem appealing, the performance of the sitting member and the capacity to drive meaningful development and growth are key factors in effective representation, which should not be overlooked going into the 2027 election. Rotation may seem like a fair and equitable approach, but the electorate is also aware it can lead to a lack of continuity and consistency in representation. This also can result in a lack of accountability, as representatives may not feel compelled to deliver on their promises. Furthermore, rotation can lead to a focus on short-term gains rather than long-term development. Again, anyone thinking of running against an incumbent must make a careful examination of whether it can be done.

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In the modern-day election pattern in Nigeria, incumbents win elections about 85 percent. An entrenched incumbent is even harder to beat than a more recently elected one. Here are some factors to consider before going into the decision of whether a challenge could be successful. The first step is to consider the overall political environment and the general mood of the electorate. Generally, there are two things that should worry incumbents.

One is whether the electorate perceives that things are on the right track. The other is whether the electorate thinks the incumbent care about them. For any sitting representative who receives favourable ratings from his people—based on these two factors—it will require an out-of
-this-world strategy for any successful challenge to happen.

● Debo Alabi, a public affairs analyst and native of Yagba, writes from Lekki, Lagos

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Opinion

MEMORY LANE: West-Idahosa reflects on his earthly sojourn to commemorate birthday

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By Dr. Ehiogie West-Idahosa, SAN.

By the Grace of God, I am one year older today. I was born on this day many years ago in St. Philomena’s Hospital, Benin City to Late Hon. Justice Joseph Oghogho Idahosa and late Mrs.Josphine Idahosa.

“I am grateful to God for His mercies and benevolence in my life. I have luckily navigated many dangerous moments in life by the Grace of Almighty God and the prayers of my families and friends. They include police shooting incident at ibadan as a young lawyer, nearly drowning in a big river, receiving middle voltage electricity shock as a child and a host of other mines that are daily encountered in life. I thank God for my ancestry. I thank my late parents for my education and upbringing. I am lucky to have an an extremely good wife and very wonderful children. I thank my brothers, sisters and extended family members for who they are. Very supportive people. I have wonderful friends all over Nigeria and beyond.

I have been lucky to be trusted by by different levels of the Nigerian society to serve in one capacity or the other. By the authority of others, I have served as Sanitary Prefect in Edo College, Benin City, Public relations officer of the Law Students Association, Uniben, Public relations officer of the students’ union, Uniben, branch secretary of Benin branch of NBA, Edo State Secretary of the defunct National Republican Convention (NRC), and thrice elected to the House Representatives, where I served Ovia Federal Constituency, Edo State and Nigeria to the best of my ability and energy. My sojourn in the House is known to many and they are the only persons who can write my testimonial.

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I am grateful to Nigeria, Edo people and in particular, the wonderful constituents of Ovia Federal Constituency ( living and dead) for the opportunities given to me to serve them amongst so many ably qualified persons.

I enjoyed the good old Nigeria and hope that it can be recreated for the benefit of the majority of our country men and women. We had patriotic and well meaning leaders who were committed to good governance. They were industrious and nationalistic within the limits of available resources, knowledge, science and energy of that time. It has been tough for our country men and women in the last ten years or so.

But, the Tinubu regime seems to be willing to make big economic decisions in the hope of repositioning our national economy to serve all of us. Some of these decisions have been hurtful in many ways to the majority of our people as they were not incrementally implemented. But, these decisions would only be appreciated, if the dividends intended, begin to trickle down soon. This would mean more fiscal and monetary policy discipline on the part of government itself. There must be a cut on the cost of governance. There is too much of Holly wood life style on the part of public officials. The essence of governance is to serve the people, not to show off with public funds held in trust for the public. They are not personal funds and must be spent prudently for the good of all.

The fight against corruption must be made real. It must be carried out with a sense of equality before the law. As long as many remain untouchable by the law, the fight would remain cosmetic and negatively affect the quality of lives of all of us as funds made to develop our country would continue to vanish into thin air

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The increased funding of the component states of Nigeria by Tinubu’s administration is good news indeed. It means that the governors can truly do extraordinary things for residents of the various states, as part of the renewed hope project. They have to noticeably decrease the ratio of infant and maternal mortality. They must work to provide more functional health care centers in urban and rural areas, pay real attention to education from primary to post secondary levels. Significantly, they must give new impetus to tecnical education. It is the way to go in the new world order. The state governments must commit to massive provision of infrastructure in key areas of the economy. They must take a good look at the need to generate more electricity in their states to boost economic development. They must venture into rail transportation. It is the easiest way to move people around in large numbers. It can be done. Lagos state is already leading the way. Others can do the same. It is a matter of exhibiting the requisite political will to do it.

State governments know the importance of security in their respective states. It is not enough to openly support the police with funds, it is equally important to set up covert informal intelligence networks across the states to provide information for the use of formal security apparatus in carrying their out functions.

Nigeria can be great again. It has the raw population, man power, presence in diaspora, sufficient elites in various spheres of life to drive the renaissance.

God bless Nigeria and best wishes to all of us.

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Dr. Ehiogie West-Idahosa, SAN

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