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2025 Budget Hit by Massive Revenue Gap as FG Falls Far Short of Projections

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By Gloria Ikibah

The Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Wale Edun, hs said that the Federal Government recorded a significant revenue shortfall in the 2025 fiscal year.

The Minister disclosed this during an interactive session on the 2026–2028 Medium Term Expenditure Framework (MTEF) and Fiscal Strategy Paper (FSP) with the House of Representatives Committees on Finance and National Planning on Tuesday in Abuja.

According to Edun, the sum of N40.8 trillion was initially projected as revenue for 2025 to fund the N54.9 trillion “budget of restoration” which is aimed at securing peace and rebuilding prosperity.

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However, the current performance indicates that total revenue for the year is likely to end at about N10.7 trillion.

He blamed the shortfall mainly to weak oil and gas revenues, particularly Petroleum Profit Tax (PPT) and Company Income Tax (CIT) from oil and gas companies, as well as underperforming subheads.

“The current trajectory indicates that federal revenues for the full year will likely end at around N10.7 trillion, compared to the ₦40.8 trillion projection,” Edun said.

He added that while the government had also borrowed about N14.1 trillion, the combined inflows remained far below what was required to fully fund the 2025 budget.

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Despite the shortfall, Edun said the government had met key obligations through what he described as prudent treasury management.

He noted that salaries, statutory transfers, and domestic and foreign debt service had been paid as and when due through “skillful, imaginative and creative handling” of available resources.

Providing an update on expenditure performance, the minister said capital releases to Ministries, Departments and Agencies (MDAs) in 2024 stood at N5.2 trillion out of a budgeted N7.1 trillion, representing 73 per cent performance, while total capital expenditure, including multilateral and bilateral projects, reached N11.1 trillion out of N13.7 trillion, or 84 per cent.

Edun urged that expenditure plans tied to oil revenues should remain flexible, this is as he warned against committing government to obligations based on projections that had repeatedly failed to materialise.

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“We must be ambitious, but given the experience of the past two years, spending linked to these revenues must depend on the funds actually coming in,” he said.

Minister of Budget and National Planning, Atiku Bagudu, said the MTEF and FSP were developed through extensive consultations with government agencies, the private sector, civil society and development partners.

Bagudu acknowledged the debate within the Economic Management Team over revenue assumptions, noting that while some advocated conservative projections based on past performance, others argued for ambitious targets to compel revenue agencies to improve performance.

He explained that for the 2026 budget, the government retained a target oil production of 2.06 million barrels per day but adopted a more cautious production assumption of 1.84 million barrels per day for revenue calculations.

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Bagudu urged that more be done to drive revenue generating agencies to do more.

Earlier Chairman of the Committee, Rep. James Faleke, said at this critical time of the country’s economy, there should be a critical analysis to guide against bloated budgets and to help take the proper decisions to move the country forward. 

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Gombe Rep Yaya Bauchi Tongo dies

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Yaya Bauchi Tongo, a member of House of Representatives representing Gombe/Kwami/Funakaye Federal Constituency of Gombe State is dead.

Rep Tongo died in Abuja on Friday following a brief illness, the spokesperson for the House of Representatives, Akintude Rotimi said in a statement quoting the Gombe State Caucus of the House of Representatives.

While paying tribute to the late lawmaker, Rotimi said his death marked the end of a distinguished life devoted to public service and the advancement of his constituents, Gombe State, and the Federal Republic of Nigeria.

“Rep. Tongo was a dedicated public servant, seasoned grassroots politician, and committed legislator whose life was marked by unwavering service to his people and the nation,” Rotimi said.

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The deceased lawmaker served as Chairman of Funakaye Local Government Area, Special Adviser to the Government of Gombe State, and Member of the Gombe State House of Assembly before his election into House of Representatives.

He was Chairman of the Nigeria–United Arab Emirates Parliamentary Friendship Group in the House of Representatives.

“A respected voice within the Parliament and a passionate advocate for the welfare and development of his constituents, Hon. Tongo brought wisdom, experience, and a deep understanding of governance to legislative deliberations. His contributions to nation-building and democratic development will remain an enduring part of his legacy.

“On behalf of the Speaker of the House of Representatives, Rt. Hon. Abbas Tajudeen, PhD, GCON, the leadership, and the entire membership of the House, we extend our heartfelt condolences to his immediate family, the people of Gombe/Kwami/Funakaye Federal Constituency, and the Government and people of Gombe State on this painful loss.

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“As we mourn the passing of our dear colleague, we pray that Almighty Allah (SWT) forgives his shortcomings, accepts his good deeds, and grants him Aljannatul Firdaus. We also pray that Allah (SWT) grants his family, loved ones, constituents, and colleagues the strength and fortitude to bear this irreparable loss,” Rotimi said.

He added that further details regarding parliamentary tributes and funeral arrangements will be communicated in due course.

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My father’s detention shows Nigeria’s democracy far from complete – El-Rufai’s son

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A member of the House of Representatives from Kaduna North and Chairman, Committee on Banking Regulations, Mohammed Bello El-Rufai, has disclosed that his father, Nasir El-Rufai’s continued detention shows that Nigeria’s democratic journey is far from complete.

Bello noted that democracy can only thrive in Nigeria when the country’s leadership is accountable.

El-Rufai has been in custody of the Independent Corrupt Practices and Other Related Offences Commission, ICPC, since he was arrested at the Abuja airport earlier in the year.

The commission had arraigned him for corruption while he was governor of Kaduna State.

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However, posting on X, Bello wrote: “Today, we celebrate the enduring strength of our democracy and the collective voice of the Nigerian people. Democracy thrives when leadership is accountable, citizens are empowered, and every voice is heard.

“As we commemorate this important day, we must also acknowledge that while our democracy continues to endure, the abuse of citizens’ rights remains a troubling reality.

“The true test of any democracy is not simply the conduct of elections, but its commitment to the rule of law, due process, and the protection of fundamental freedoms.

“The continued unlawful detention of my father, Mallam Nasir El-Rufai, alongside the experiences of many other Nigerians who have faced similar violations, serves as a reminder that our democratic journey is far from complete.

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“On this Democracy Day, let us recommit ourselves to building a nation where justice prevails, institutions are strengthened, and the rights of every citizen are respected and protected.”

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NDC: Dickson, Obi hold closed door meeting amid internal crises

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The National Leader of the Nigerian Democratic Congress, NDC, Senator Seriake Dickson, on Friday held a closed-door meeting with the party’s presidential candidate, Peter Obi, amid recent crises in the party.

Dickson made this known in a statement on his official X handle, revealing that the meeting, which lasted nearly three hours, was attended by Obi and other senior party leaders.

“I just received my brother, colleague, and partner in the New Nigerian Project, His Excellency Mr Peter Gregory Obi, CON, our presidential candidate, who, together with some distinguished leaders of our party, held a closed-door meeting which lasted about three hours.

“In the course of that meeting, we reviewed the activities of our party and discussed a few recent issues that have been a source of concern to all sides, and we amicably resolved all the issues.

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“We have always been on the same page on the bigger picture, i.e., winning the elections for all candidates of our party and rescuing Nigeria from the misgovernance of the APC-led government. However, a few issues have arisen, and we have agreed on how to handle them moving forward.

“I want to use this opportunity again to call on all members of our party to stop the bickering and name-calling and focus on the bigger picture.

“Both His Excellency Peter Obi and I, as well as other leaders and stakeholders of our party, will continue to consult and engage with one another to address and resolve concerns, strengthen the unity and cohesion of our party, and ensure that we remain focused on our shared mission of rescuing Nigeria and building a better future for all.”

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