By Gloria Ikibah
The House of Representatives has approved the Medium-Term Expenditure Framework and Fiscal Strategy Paper for the 2026–2028 period, clearing the way for a proposed ₦54.46 trillion spending plan anchored on a conservative oil price outlook.
The decision followed the adoption of a joint report by the Committees on Finance and on National Planning and Economic Development, presented on Thursday by the Chairman of the Finance Committee, James Faleke. The report was the outcome of weeks of scrutiny involving submissions from ministries, departments and agencies, as well as government-owned enterprises. 
As part of its recommendations, the House endorsed crude oil benchmark prices of $64.85 per barrel for 2026, $64.30 for 2027 and $65.50 for 2028. Lawmakers said the figures reflected a cautious but realistic assessment of global market conditions.
The committees noted Nigeria’s improving oil production profile, pointing to strong performance under OPEC targets. Nigeria was recorded as one of the standout performers among OPEC members in November 2025, posting one of the highest month-on-month production increases, according to the December 2025 OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report.
On output projections, the House approved average domestic crude oil production of 1.84 million barrels per day in 2026, rising to 1.88 million barrels per day in 2027 and 1.92 million barrels per day by 2028. The projections were described as achievable, given recent gains in production stability and sector reforms.
The adoption of the framework provides the fiscal foundation for budget planning over the next three years, setting key assumptions that will guide government spending, revenue expectations and economic management.
On macroeconomic assumptions, the House endorsed exchange rate projections of ₦1,512 to the dollar in 2026, ₦1,432.15 in 2027 and ₦1,383.18 in 2028, in line with the Central Bank of Nigeria’s policy to stabilise the naira and strengthen fiscal and monetary policy coordination.
Inflation was projected to moderate from 16.5 per cent in 2026 to 13 per cent in 2027 and nine per cent in 2028, while real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth was projected at 4.68 per cent, 5.96 per cent and 7.9 per cent for the three years respectively. The committees assessed growth prospects for 2026 as high, in anticipation of gains from ongoing economic and tax reforms.
The House further endorsed the implementation of the new Tax Acts as “veritable instruments” for economic reform and development. It also recommended the adoption of a National Scanning Policy within the National Single Window of the Nigeria Revenue Services (NRS), in collaboration with relevant agencies, to enhance revenue assurance, improve trade facilitation, reduce leakages, and strengthen transparency and national security.
On fiscal aggregates, the committees approved the proposed Federal Government spending of ₦54.46 trillion for the 2026 fiscal year. Of this, Federal Government retained revenue was put at ₦31.83 trillion, while new borrowings—both domestic and foreign—were estimated at ₦20.38 trillion. Debt service was projected at ₦15.52 trillion, pensions, gratuities and retirees’ benefits at ₦1.376 trillion, and the fiscal deficit at ₦22.63 trillion.
Capital expenditure, exclusive of transfers, was pegged at ₦20.131 trillion, while statutory transfers were projected at ₦3.152 trillion and the Sinking Fund at ₦388.54 billion. Total recurrent (non-debt) expenditure was estimated at ₦15.265 trillion, with special interventions for recurrent and capital expenditure pegged at ₦200 billion and ₦14 billion respectively.
Following the adoption of the report, the House resolved that all the projections and recommendations contained in the MTEF and FSP for 2026–2028 be sustained to support economic stability, growth and development in the medium term.
