Economy
OPEC+ Hikes Oil Production Amid US-Isreal Strikes On Iran
Key members of the OPEC+ oil cartel announced a greater-than-expected increase to production quotas on Sunday following US and Israeli strikes on Iran that triggered retaliation by Tehran across the Middle East.
The eight-strong V8 (Voluntary Eight) group in the alliance, which includes top oil producers Saudi Arabia and Russia — as well as several Gulf states bearing the brunt of Tehran’s missile strikes — said they had agreed a “production adjustment” of 206,000 barrels per day (bpd).
“This adjustment will be implemented in April,” they said in a statement.
The text did not mention the outbreak of the Iran conflict, instead citing “a steady global economic outlook and current healthy market fundamentals” as their reasons for the increase.
Before the weekend’s meeting, experts had forecast a more modest increase of 137,000 bpd.
However, Jorge Leon, an analyst at Rystad Energy, warned that the agreed-upon increase might not be large enough to prevent the Iran conflict from causing a spike in oil prices when trading opens on Monday.
Leon pointed to the possibility that Iran could target the Strait of Hormuz, a key waterway for nearly a quarter of the world’s seaborne oil supplies, in retaliation.
Iran’s Revolutionary Guards have contacted ships to announce that the Strait was closed.
On Sunday, Iranian state TV said an oil tanker in the strait was struck while attempting to “illegally” pass through and was sinking, showing footage of a burning tanker at sea.
“If oil cannot move through Hormuz, an extra 206,000 barrels per day does very little to ease the market,” Leon said, arguing that “logistics and transit risk matter more than production targets right now”.
The OPEC+ move “is unlikely to calm markets”, he said.
“Prices will respond to developments in the Gulf and the status of shipping flows, not to a relatively small increase in output,” Leon added.
‘Nightmare Scenario’
Besides Russia and Saudi Arabia, the V8 group within OPEC+ includes Kuwait, Oman, Iraq, and the United Arab Emirates, all of which were targeted by Iranian attacks for a second day on Sunday.
Algeria and Kazakhstan are also part of the group.
Another analyst, Stephen Innes, managing partner at SPI Asset Management, said that, with the fear of incoming missiles in the Strait of Hormuz, insurers cancelling contracts for vessels wanting to go through there, and jammed electronic signalling in the Gulf region, commercial shippers were scared.
They are “starting to act as if the route is compromised,” he said.
“A full closure for more than a few days is the nightmare scenario,” he said.
A blockage of the strait could mean oil prices leaping from around $72 before the war to $120 to $150 a barrel when trading starts on Monday, he said, based on industry estimates.
He and other analysts pointed to land pipelines Saudi Arabia and the UAE could use to get around shipping through the strait, but noted that would still leave a shortfall of some eight million to 10 million bpd on the market.
“Those are meaningful pressure valves, but they are not a replacement for the full seaborne flow,” Innes said.
While higher prices might seem a boon for OPEC+ countries, it in fact carries the risk of increasing competition from producers outside the cartel, such as the United States, Canada, and Brazil.
Kpler analyst Homayoun Falakshahi told AFP that the cartel might “prefer prices of $80 to 90, but around $70 per barrel is the ideal price level” to cut the incentive for more investment by those rival producers.
He added that Russian production has been on a downward trend since November, leaving analysts to think that it was at its maximum output.
Leon, of Rystad Energy, said the only OPEC+ members “who can really boost their production are Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and, to a lesser degree, Kuwait and Iraq”.
AFP
The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) in collaboration with the Financial Markets Dealers Association (FMDA) has introduced the Nigerian Overnight Financing Rate (NOFR).
The new initiative is a standardized benchmark, aimed at enhancing transparency, strengthening monetary policy transmission, and deepening Nigeria’s money market.
The introduction of the NOFR was made known in a statement issued on Sunday by the Director, Corporate Communications of the CBN, Mrs. Hakama Sidi Ali.
The apex bank explained that the NOFR was developed to align Nigeria with global best practices in short-term interest
rate benchmarks.
Moreover, it said the initiative is expected to improve price discovery and transparency, while promoting consistent pricing of money market instruments.
“It will enhance the effectiveness of monetary policy, support financial innovation, boost investor confidence, and strengthen risk management across the financial system,” the CBN said.
The introduction of NOFR positions Nigeria alongside leading global benchmarks such as SOFR in the United States, SONIA in the United Kingdom, €STR in the Eurozone, and TONA in Japan.
Also, it complements African benchmarks such as the JIBAR in South Africa.
The CBN added that the benchmark was adopted after a stakeholder engagement session held on February 27, 2026, with market participants formally endorsing the initiative.
It further disclosed that following the subsequent regulatory approval, NOFR is now in use, with the CBN serving as the benchmark administrator.
“The bank will ensure governance, transparency, and regular publication of the rate,” the statement stated.
The Nigerian naira depreciated slightly against the United States (US) dollar, trading at N1,343.6398 per dollar at the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) official foreign exchange window on Friday, 17th April, 2026.
According to the data on the CBN’s official platform, the naira traded at the Nigerian Foreign Exchange Market (NFEM) rate of N1,343.6398/$per dollar and closed at N1,342.5000 per dollar.
When compared with the previous trading rate, the Nigerian currency traded at N1342.3037 on 16th April, 2026. With this, the Nigerian currency depreciated slightly by a minimum of N1.3.
At the parallel market, the naira-to-dollar exchange rate for the buying rate didn’t change while the selling rate increased by N3 when compared to that of the previous trading rate.
According to Aboki FX , the Naira-to-dollar exchange rate at the black market on Friday, 17th April, 2026, was N1,395 and N1,405 per dollar for buying and selling rate respectively.
The Central Bank of Nigeria on Friday unveiled the Nigerian Overnight Financing Rate (NOFR) as a new benchmark for the country’s money market, a move aimed at boosting transparency and improving the effectiveness of monetary policy.
The announcement was made in a statement by the bank’s Acting Director of Corporate Communications, Hakama Sidi-Ali, who noted that the initiative was developed in partnership with the Financial Markets Dealers Association to strengthen Nigeria’s financial system.
According to the apex bank, the new benchmark is designed to bring Nigeria in line with global standards for short-term interest rates, while enhancing price discovery and ensuring more consistent pricing across money market instruments.
The CBN explained that NOFR is expected to improve monetary policy transmission, encourage financial innovation, and boost investor confidence, while also reinforcing risk management practices within the financial system.
With the introduction of NOFR, Nigeria joins other economies that use similar benchmarks, such as SOFR in the United States, SONIA in the United Kingdom, €STR in the Eurozone, TONA in Japan, and JIBAR in South Africa.
The bank disclosed that the rate followed a stakeholder engagement held on February 27, 2026, where market participants adopted the framework before receiving regulatory approval. NOFR is now operational, with the CBN serving as its administrator and responsible for ensuring transparency, governance, and regular publication.
Further details provided in an FAQ document show that NOFR is a risk-free benchmark reflecting the cost of overnight secured lending in the interbank market. Unlike estimates, it is based strictly on actual transactions, improving accuracy and credibility.
The rate is published daily at 10:00 a.m. on the next business day and applies only to naira-denominated overnight secured interbank transactions that meet specified criteria. It is calculated using a volume-weighted trimmed mean approach to remove outliers and ensure reliability.
Where there is insufficient transaction data, the previous day’s rate will be retained and clearly disclosed to maintain consistency.
The CBN clarified that NOFR is not a replacement for key monetary policy tools such as the Monetary Policy Rate but will serve as a reference for pricing financial instruments, contracts, and some corporate loans.
For investors, the benchmark is expected to improve valuation, pricing, and risk management of naira assets, thereby deepening activity in the domestic money market.
While retail customers may not see immediate changes in loan or savings rates, the bank noted that increased transparency from the new system should strengthen overall confidence in Nigeria’s financial sector.
On governance, the CBN stated that any adjustments to the rate would only occur in cases of significant errors and would be fully disclosed, adding that the methodology will be reviewed at least once a year to keep it aligned with market realities.
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CBN, FMDA introduce the Nigerian Overnight Financing Rate
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