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Iranian Leaders Determined To Prove Islamic Republic’s Staying Power
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Iran’s leaders are seeking to show the staying power of their nearly half-century-old clerical-based system and prove that it can withstand the killing of its longtime ruler and war with the United States and Israel, analysts said.
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, supreme leader since the death of revolutionary founder Ruhollah Khomeini in 1989, was killed along with several family members and top security figures in air strikes at the start of the US-Israeli attacks late last month.
But analysts said the system he led, based on Shia Islam and hostility to the West, remained firmly in place, even if it was likely to be adapted by his son and successor, Mojtaba Khamenei.
This was likely to mean even greater influence for the Revolutionary Guards, the ideological arm of the military created to ensure the survival of the system and whose influence is felt across Iran, including in the economy.
Thomas Juneau, a professor at the University of Ottawa, told AFP that “the system is resilient and it remains able to implement well-developed contingency plans”.
“Continuity is built into the system and its institutions, and so far, there is no indication that the collapse of the Islamic Republic is imminent.”
‘Dangerous Pattern’
While he has been a low-profile figure rarely seen in public, Mojtaba Khamenei is seen by analysts as a hardliner close to the Revolutionary Guards who took a lead role in the suppression of protests.
“The selection of Mojtaba as his father’s successor is an additional indication that the regime’s leadership intends to remain defiant and does not plan to compromise on what it perceives as its core values and interests,” said Juneau.
In a show of defiance, several key surviving figures in the government and security forces took to the streets of Tehran on Friday for a rally even as explosions went off nearby.
Sporting dark sunglasses despite heavy rain, national security chief Ali Larijani said US President Donald Trump did not understand that “the more he presses, the stronger the nation’s determination will become”.
Judiciary chief Gholam Hossein Mohseni Ejei, meanwhile, barely flinched as an explosion rocked an area close to the demonstration, in images widely broadcast on state TV.
Not present was Mojtaba Khamenei, who has not been seen in public since his appointment.
Another notable absentee from the rally was parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, a former Revolutionary Guards commander who some commentators believe is at the heart of the war effort.
Torbjorn Soltvedt, associate director at risk analysis firm Verisk Maplecroft, said that the conflict was “locked in a dangerous pattern that’s unlikely to change anytime soon” as Iran hits back with its own attacks in the region that have sent energy prices surging.
‘Highly Resilient’
“Right now, there are no clear off-ramps. Despite intense US and Israeli airstrikes, Iran is able to target shipping and critical energy infrastructure with concerning regularity,” Soltvedt told AFP.
“The regime has proved highly resilient so far, reflecting the extensive control and influence held by the office of the supreme leader and hardline factions in politics and the armed forces,” he added.
Barbara Slavin, a fellow at the US-based Stimson Center, said Mojtaba Khamenei’s authority would “depend heavily on continued backing from the Revolutionary Guards whose political and economic influence has expanded dramatically over the past two decades”.
“It is unlikely Mojtaba will be predisposed to make any concessions” to the United States and Israel, she said, given their responsibility for the killing of Iranians and the destruction of Iran’s infrastructure.
Should the Islamic Republic survive the war, it would be able to fall back on a narrative similar to that which followed the 1980-1988 war with Saddam Hussein’s Iraq, known in Iran as the “imposed war”.
“If it survives this war, which for now seems to be the case, it will be able to claim victory,” said Juneau.
“This would be a costly victory, however: its leadership has been decapitated, its military capabilities degraded, its economic infrastructure damaged,” he added.
AFP
The African Democratic Congress has given reasons why its presidential flag bearer Atiku Abubakar was absent at the G100 summit in Abuja.
ADC spokesperson, Bolaji Abdullahi, gave the explanation on Tuesday during an interview saying the summit focused on cooperation among political parties rather than individual candidates.
He said the ADC was fully represented at Monday’s meeting, with four of its vice chairmen in attendance, making Atiku’s physical presence unnecessary.
The summit, held at the Shehu Musa Yar’Adua Centre in Abuja, brought together representatives of major opposition parties to discuss possible cooperation ahead of the 2027 elections.
News
“Go Back and Repair Our Road!” — Enugu Residents Turn APC Campaign Ground Into Assessment Session(Video)
Drama unfolded in Enugu North when a man reportedly campaigning for the APC in Peter Mbah-branded clothing was confronted by residents over the condition of their community.
Instead of the expected campaign applause, residents turned the encounter into an impromptu accountability hearing.
Community: “As you were coming here, how did the road look?”
APC Supporter: “It is very terrible.”
Community: “Go and tell the people who sent you to come and construct the road for us.”
APC Supporter: “I will inform them.”
The residents did not stop there.
Community: “Is that not a primary school your community members attend? How is it?”
APC Supporter: “It is bad.”
And just like that, the campaign rally became a road-and-school inspection.
The Defence Headquarters has said the reported withdrawal of about 200 United States personnel from Nigeria will not affect the country’s security cooperation with the US, describing the development as a routine adjustment tied to specific operational objectives.
The Director of Defence Information, Maj Gen S. Uba, stated this on Tuesday while addressing journalists at the joint security spokespersons briefing.
Uba said the withdrawal should not be interpreted as a breakdown or termination of the longstanding security partnership between Nigeria and the United States.
“The Armed Forces of Nigeria wishes to clarify that the reported withdrawal of about 200 United States personnel should not be interpreted as a breakdown or termination of the Nigeria-United States security partnership,” he said.
According to him, the relationship between both countries remains “strong, enduring, and mutually beneficial,” noting that the deployment of American personnel was linked to specific operational and counterterrorism objectives.
“The decision to draw down personnel is therefore part of the evolving nature of that engagement. Elements of the United States security partnership, particularly intelligence cooperation, training and information sharing, will continue,” Uba added.
He stressed that the responsibility for defending Nigeria and protecting its citizens remained primarily with Nigerian security forces, while noting that cooperation with the US aimed to strengthen the capabilities of the Nigerian military.
“The Armed Forces of Nigeria has consistently maintained that the responsibility for the defence of Nigeria and the protection of its citizens rests primarily with Nigerian security forces,” the DDI said.
He explained that the bilateral security partnership covered intelligence sharing, training, technical assistance and other forms of professional military cooperation.
“Our cooperation with the United States is designed to strengthen our capabilities through intelligence sharing, training, technical assistance, and other forms of professional military cooperation,” he said.
Uba said that when Nigeria and the US jointly assessed the need for additional interventions, including joint strikes, they carried them out.
“Where it is jointly assessed that additional efforts, including joint strikes, are required, we do that,” he stated.
The defence spokesman said the partnership had continued to yield positive results in the fight against terrorism and other transnational security threats.
“Indeed, the Nigeria-United States partnership has continued to produce valuable outcomes in the fight against terrorism and other transnational security threats,” he said.
Uba urged the media and members of the public not to interpret the adjustment in the presence of foreign military personnel as an indication of weakening security cooperation or Nigeria’s defence capacity.
“We equally call on the media and the Nigerian public to avoid interpreting a routine or mission-specific adjustment in foreign military presence as evidence of a collapse in Nigerian security cooperation or national defence capability,” he said.
He reiterated that the Nigeria-US security relationship remained enduring and that cooperation in areas of mutual interest was expected to continue.
The clarification came after US officials said most of the additional forces deployed for the Lake Chad operation had returned following the completion of their mission, while intelligence sharing and broader security cooperation with Nigeria would continue.
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