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By Dr Gabriel Nwambu

Preparatory Assessment and Pilot Survey
Ahead of the August 15, 2026 Osun State Governorship Election
INTRODUCTION
The Centre for Credible Leadership and Citizens Awareness (CCLCA), as a duly accredited civil
society organization recognized by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), is
mandated to observe the electoral processes in Nigeria to guarantee transparency,
accountability, and adherence to democratic principles.

In fulfillment of our civic responsibility toward the upcoming August 15, 2026 Osun State
Governorship Election, the Centre has concluded a comprehensive pre-election observation
mission and a state-wide pilot survey.

This document highlights our early findings regarding the
security environment, stakeholders’ preparedness, INEC’s operational readiness, voter
sensitization, and potential flashpoints across the 30 Local Government Areas (LGAs) of Osun
State.

OBJECTIVES OF THE PILOT SURVEY & OBSERVATION
Our pilot survey was designed to:
1. Gauge public confidence in the electoral umpire (INEC) and security architectures.
2. Assess the level of voter preparedness, collection status of Permanent Voter Cards
(PVCs), and civic awareness.
3. Identify early-warning indicators, security flashpoints, and potential threats of electoral
violence or voter suppression.
4. Evaluate the compliance of political parties with the Electoral Act and peace pact
guidelines.

METHODOLOGY
The Centre deployed a mixed-method qualitative and quantitative approach. This included:
● Key Informant Interviews (KIIs): Consultations with traditional rulers, religious leaders,
youth groups, security agencies, and leaderships of political parties.
● Desk Reviews & Media Monitoring: Tracking political rhetoric, incidents of violence, and
hate speech across traditional and social media platforms.

● Pilot Perception Survey: Administered structured questionnaires to a randomized
sample of registered voters across urban and rural settlements spanning all three
Senatorial Districts of Osun State.

KEY FINDINGS OF THE PRE-ELECTION PILOT SURVEY
A. Voter Readiness and Awareness
● High Interest, Mixed Sentiment: Our survey revealed a remarkably high level of
awareness regarding the August 15 election date among citizens. Over 82% of
respondents expressed willingness to participate.

● PVC Collection and Access: While initial distribution phases recorded commendable
turnouts, pockets of logistical bottlenecks and isolated attacks on distribution centers
raised temporary anxieties. However, proactive interventions by INEC have largely
stabilized collection rates.

B. Assessment of INEC’s Preparedness
● Logistical Planning: Reports from our field observers indicate that INEC is steadily
moving non-sensitive materials to the various LGA headquarters. Stakeholder
engagements conducted by the Commission have been rated positively.

● Technology Deployment: Confidence in the Bimodal Voter Accreditation System (BVAS)
and the INEC Result Viewing (IReV) portal remains moderately high, though respondents
emphasized the need for optimal network connectivity and prompt deployment of
technical support teams to avert glitches on election day.
C. Security Environment and Early-Warning Indicators (Flashpoints)
Despite the enthusiasm of the electorate, the Centre notes with grave concern several
early-warning indicators that require immediate multi-agency intervention:
● Escalating Political Tensions: Our pilot survey highlights localized political friction and
aggressive rhetoric between major contending parties, particularly in high-density urban
centers and historical flashpoints across parts of Osogbo, Ilesa, Ile-Ife, and Ede.

● Incidents of Violence and Vandalism: Recent reports of localized clashes, destruction
of campaign materials, and unwarranted attacks threaten to shrink the civic space and
induce voter apathy through fear.

● The Threat of Vote Trading: Economic vulnerabilities identified during our survey
suggest that vote-buying remains an latent threat. Indigent voters surveyed expressed
concerns regarding attempts by desperate political actors to monetize the ballot.

RECOMMENDATIONS
To ensure a free, fair, credible, and peaceful election on August 15, 2026, the Centre for
Credible Leadership and Citizens Awareness recommends the following:
1. To the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC):
○ Ensure timely deployment of sensitive and non-sensitive materials to Registration
Area Centers (RACs) to prevent the usual delays on election morning.
○ Conduct continuous mock testing of BVAS devices to assure the electorate of
fail-safe technology.
○ Maintain absolute neutrality and transparency in collaboration with all accredited
observers and party agents.
2. To Security Agencies (Police, NSCDC, and Military):

Deploy proactive intelligence-gathering mechanisms to identified flashpoints to
forestall any breakdown of law and order.
○ Ensure a robust, non-partisan security presence that guarantees the safety of
voters, election officials, and observers without intimidating peaceful citizens.
○ Strictly enforce laws against vote-buying and prosecute offenders regardless of
political affiliation.

3. To Political Parties and Candidates:
○ Call your supporters to order and strictly abide by the peace accords signed for the
election.

○ Refrain from hate speech, fake news, and actions capable of inciting violence or
polarizing communities along ethnic or partisan lines.
4. To the Electorate and Citizens of Osun State:
○ Come out en masse to exercise your franchise on August 15, 2026, undeterred by
intimidation or fear.
○ Resist any form of vote-selling, as your vote is your power and the true currency of
good governance.

CONCLUSION
The Osun State Governorship Election of August 15, 2026, is a critical test for Nigeria’s evolving
democracy. While challenges relating to security and political tensions persist, they are not
insurmountable. The Centre for Credible Leadership and Citizens Awareness remains steadfast
in its commitment to observing the process objectively and reporting findings transparently. We
call on all stakeholders to place the peace, security, and prosperity of Osun State above
personal or parochial political ambitions.
Signed:
NWAMBU Gabriel,Ph.D.,
Director-General / National Coordinator Centre for Credible Leadership and Citizens Awareness (CCLCA)