By Gloria Ikibah
The Federal Government has moved to strengthen the credibility of economic forecasts used in Nigeria’s budgeting process, with plans to introduce a single data repository and tighter scrutiny of the assumptions underpinning future budgets.
The Ministry of Finance and Ministry of Budget and Economic Planning reached the resolutions at a Macroeconomic Data and Assumptions Validation Workshop held on August 29, 2026. 
The workshop brought together key fiscal and monetary data institutions across government to address weaknesses in economic forecasting and ensure that national planning is based on credible data, realistic assumptions and transparent methodologies.
A review of previous budget cycles revealed significant gaps between some macroeconomic projections and actual outcomes, particularly in oil production and revenue.
The participants agreed that the gaps must be addressed through stronger forecasting, improved coordination and measures to reduce optimism bias in future budgets.
One of the key resolutions was the establishment of a Standing Committee on Macroeconomic Data and Assumptions. The committee will be responsible for continuous validation and review of economic data and assumptions, with its reports submitted to the Economic Management Team.
The government also plans to establish a central data repository to ensure that government institutions work with a single and consistent set of economic data and assumptions.
Another resolution is the development of a unified national data reporting framework containing standard definitions for revenue, expenditure and borrowing.
The workshop further called for stronger coordination between fiscal and monetary authorities and improvements in the timeliness and quality of key national statistics.
The areas identified for improvement include employment, productivity and producer-price data, which are considered important for accurate economic forecasting and policy decisions.
The assumptions underpinning the Medium-Term Expenditure Framework (MTEF), Fiscal Strategy Paper (FSP) and annual Budget will also face tougher scrutiny before finalisation.
The government said these assumptions will be subjected to stronger methodology, sensitivity analysis and scenario testing to assess how different economic conditions could affect projected outcomes.
The measures form part of the Federal Government’s wider efforts to improve fiscal transparency, accountability and evidence-based economic management.
The workshop emphasised the importance of reliable data in shaping economic policy, noting that better data would lead to more realistic assumptions, improved planning and, ultimately, stronger economic outcomes for Nigerians.
The resolutions come as preparations for the 2027 budget gather pace, with the government seeking to improve the accuracy of its economic projections and strengthen the foundation on which national spending and revenue decisions are made.
