BY BOLAJI AFOLABI
While many citizens of Zamfara were surprised, others were shocked by the reality that their beloved State will be 30 years in a few months. Worse hit were the young adults in tertiary institutions and post-primary schools, the working-class category, the unemployed, and the increasing group of almajiris who daily, traverse the streets of Gusau and other towns in search of daily meals. Governor Dauda Lawal inaugurated a central planning committee to mark the State’s three decades of existence; scheduled for December 2026. With the extinction of History in our schools, and given the uninspiring commitment of successive governments to education, many people – young and old – may be excused for not being conscious of the advancing-age of Zamfara. With the depth of infrastructure decay, disturbing unemployment, corrosive poverty, pervasive hunger, debilitating hardship, unabated insecurity, and wholesale pauperization of the citizenry, particularly in the last few years such a reaction was expected.
Trust the average politician to latch on any issue for self-adulation, chest-pumping, and ego-tripping, the media handlers of Lawal did just that. They did not allow the opportunity to sneak out of exploitation. They feasted on it for maximum mileage. To prepare the grounds for the “Zamfara-birthday” the media space; particularly the social media was awash with opinions, commentaries, and articles about the “great works” in the State. Analysts who seemed to be in a literary contest tried to out-do, out-wit, and out-shine one another to burnish the image of Lawal, and market his achievements to all Nigerians. After reading one of those articles, Mallam Abubakar Maigari, a civil rights activist quipped, “I very much doubt if this person went round the entire State, it thus appears that he merely weaved the information given to him in beautiful prose.” Comrade Suleiman Bello, a colleague of Maigari commended Lawal for, “a few of the positive things in Gusau, but there is nothing near the imagery being painted in the article.” 
Having stumbled on the advocacies, there was an urge to interrogate the veracity of these milestones. It grew in propensity and became inevitable. Perhaps, the discovery that Zamfara, which was created on October 1st, 1996, by former Head of State, Late General Sani Abacha; on the same day with Bayelsa, Ebonyi, Ekiti, Gombe, and Nasarawa States increased one’s desire to probe further. Also, with some knowledge about the political culture of the people, and with the 2027 General Elections fast approaching, one concluded that it was necessary to go, even deeper. The solution on how to go about it came in the most unexpected manner. A few days ago, the writer had a chance meeting with three people – who were part of a team that embarked on a one-week political fact-finding tour of the State.
Insisting on their apolitical status and professionalism, they agreed to share slices of their findings on the condition of anonymity. Taking turns, the “three wise men” spoke about the political situation in Zamfara – particularly, with the general elections fast approaching. As curtain raisers, they lamented about the level of insecurity in the State, which has distorted, if not eroded the agrarian vocation of people in the hinterland. For them, it was a misnomer to discover that a state with the moniker; “farming is our pride” are in a quandary as swathes of arable farmlands are deserted by the people – not for laziness but to protect and preserve lives. They claimed that the level of political consciousness of the people was thousands of miles beyond their hitherto perceptions.
Indeed, a picture of disenchanted citizenry, overarching workforce that are disillusioned by the antics of the political class was painted. The realities on ground outweigh the “eldorado” communicated by government apologists. A member of the group declared that, “across the State, you meet angry, hungry, and pained populace who are eagerly hopeful that their basic needs would be addressed. It may interest you to know that aside from the urban renewals executed by the present administration, nothing meaningful is happening in other towns across the State. From the Central to the West and North Senatorial Districts, the economic squalor, poverty, hunger, hardship, and massive unemployment gives serious concerns. Sadly, politics is the only thriving business in Zamfara; as the vast majority scramble for the crumbs from Leaders – which itself, portends danger to meaningful development.”
Contrary to the calculations and conjectures by political trackers about the state of play in Zamfara, Nigerians may be in for a shocker. Another member of the trio said that, “the present realities shows gradual shift among voters, such that the eventual results of the next elections may confirm the awareness and understanding of the populace to politics and national issues. The fact is that there is schisms in the ruling APC, as Lawal, Senator Yari, and Minister Matawalle are allegedly not together. There are purported issues of mistrust, mutual suspicions, power-tussle, egoistic tendencies, and distortions of political hegemony. While they are fully committed towards the re-election of President Bola Tinubu, the reverse is likely at the Governorship polls. As it is, Nigerians should not be surprised if the outcomes of next year’s elections differ from projections.”
Continuing, the last of the “three wise men” added, “forget the photo-ops of the men splashed in the media, the gulf between them is huge and cannot be dismissed. From reports, it is almost impossible for truce, because it is about present and future political power and relevance. These are known to the majority of the Zamfara populace; though many are diplomatic about it. The clamour for change of guards in Zamfara is real, and gradually takes a life of its own. For many people, having failed in guaranteeing security, Lawal does not deserve re-election. However, two discoveries were shocking. One, Tinubu may score more than the mandatory 25% or win Zamfara, outrightly. Two, the Peoples Democratic Party, (PDP) appears to be the new darling of the people for the Governorship elections, as it is gaining more momentum, and new membership.”
Two events that happened recently, somewhat confirms the issues discussed above. Following his appointment as the Director-General of the APC Presidential Campaign Council, a grand home-coming was organized for Yari by his supporters in Gusau. While addressing the media after a strategic session with his political group, Yari was unequivocal about ensuring that Tinubu wins comfortably in Zamfara. However, he was diplomatic about Lawal. A few days later in Kaduna, Matawalle after an engagement with his political group, took a similar strand. If these scenarios are carefully analysed, it is obvious that both men, who possess commendable followers in Zamfara are not only in sync, but wholly committed towards delivering the State to Tinubu. Stretched further, one can safely conclude – for now – that they seem pococurante to the Lawal re-election project.
In many ways, the frank comments by a senior member of staff of the State’s bureaucracy who pleaded anonymity was instructive, “my schedule involves covering all the LGAs, which I do regularly. Forget whatever those around His Excellency are saying or the message they are telling Nigerians, the facts on ground is that the people are looking beyond him. They are not happy with him and his leadership style. They have concluded to withdraw their support for him. For now, the people are gravitating towards the PDP, which has organic members and support bases throughout Zamfara. Also, those you may call the “original Leaders” of Zamfara politics seems to have resolved to win back executive power from Lawal, described as an ‘outsider’ whose path to victory in 2023 they believed was accidental and unfortunate.”
True, these are interesting times in the politics of Zamfara State, even as the 2027 general elections beckons. In almost a decade, two political developments has shown that the State is one that deserves keen interest and magestrial studies. PDP, the main opposition party, won executive power through the Courts and Ballot in 2019 and 2023 – with Matawalle and Lawal being the major beneficiaries. Are voters going to replicate the damning electoral flooring served Matawalle in 2023 to Lawal in 2027? Are we going to see, once again the triumph of people-power as the consequence for inertia, insensitivity, and imbalances in the polity? Will the power equation be retained and strengthened? Will there be reclaiming of executive power by the legacy group of political egg-heads?
* BOLAJI AFOLABI, a Development Communications specialist was with the Office of Public Affairs, The Presidency Abuja.
