By Gloria Ikibah
Nigeria’s economic outlook has been revised to Positive from Stable by international credit rating agency Fitch Ratings, in a boost to the Federal Government’s economic reform programme.
The agency, which announced the decision on October 9, maintained Nigeria’s Long-Term Issuer Default Ratings at ‘B’, citing progress in economic reforms, stronger external reserves, greater exchange rate flexibility and easing inflationary pressures.
In a statement issued in Abuja on Saturday, the Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Prof. Taiwo Oyedele, said the government welcomed the development, describing it as recognition of the progress made in stabilising the economy.
A Positive Outlook indicates that Nigeria’s rating could be upgraded if current economic trends and reform efforts are sustained.
Fitch attributed the improved outlook to changes in Nigeria’s policy framework and growing confidence that the government would maintain the pace of reforms.
The agency noted that Nigeria’s gross foreign exchange reserves rose to $54.9bn as of September 25, 2026, from $32bn in mid-April 2024.
It attributed the increase to greater formalisation of foreign exchange transactions, strong portfolio inflows, and improved export earnings and remittances.
Fitch also said improvements in the quality of the country’s reserves had strengthened its ability to withstand external shocks, projecting a current account surplus of 6.4 per cent of gross domestic product in 2026.
The agency expects Nigeria’s economy to grow by 4.3 per cent this year, compared with four per cent in 2025, with growth remaining above four per cent in 2027 and 2028, driven mainly by non-oil activities.
It further noted that crude oil production had met Nigeria’s OPEC target of 1.5 million barrels per day since May 2026, while increased domestic refining was helping to reduce imports of refined petroleum products and the associated demand for foreign exchange.
Average inflation is projected to fall to 15.4 per cent in 2026, less than half its 2024 level.
On public finances, Fitch expects the implementation of tax reforms to increase non-oil revenue relative to GDP.
It projects general government debt to average 32 per cent of GDP between 2026 and 2028, significantly below the median of 56 per cent for countries with a ‘B’ rating.
The agency also highlighted Nigeria’s liquid domestic debt market and the ongoing bank recapitalisation exercise, noting that many banks now have capital adequacy ratios above 20 per cent, well above regulatory minimums.
Oyedele said the latest decision added to a series of positive assessments of Nigeria’s economic direction by international financial institutions.
He noted that S&P Global Ratings upgraded Nigeria’s rating from ‘B-’ to ‘B’ in May, while Moody’s Ratings revised the country’s outlook to Positive in August.
Nigeria was also returned to Frontier Market status by FTSE Russell, effective September 21, 2026.
According to the minister, the decisions point to growing confidence in the government’s reform agenda.
“Fitch’s Positive Outlook further validates the difficult but necessary reforms implemented under the leadership of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, GCFR, from removing a costly and inequitable fuel subsidy to unifying the exchange rate and the landmark tax reforms.
“Our medium-term ambition is to place Nigeria firmly on the path to investment grade. We are committed to this work, not for the rating itself, but because these reforms will lower Nigeria’s cost of capital, crowd in private investment and create decent jobs at scale,” he said.
The minister, however, acknowledged that significant challenges remained despite the improved outlook.
Fitch noted that Nigeria’s inflation rate was still higher than those of comparable economies, while government revenue remained low relative to the size of the economy. Interest payments also continued to consume a substantial proportion of government revenue.
Oyedele said the government recognised these concerns and remained committed to addressing them through its ongoing reform programme.
He listed the administration’s priorities as sustaining reforms and maintaining a transparent, market-reflective foreign exchange regime; increasing revenue through the full implementation of the new tax laws and more efficient tax administration; and improving fiscal governance through better spending, budget execution and transparent debt management.
Other priorities include structural reforms to support non-oil growth and economic diversification, as well as measures to translate macroeconomic stability into improved living standards through food security, job creation, human development and support for small businesses.
The ministry also noted Fitch’s position that further positive rating action would depend on sustained disinflation, continued implementation of reforms, stronger external reserves and improved mobilisation of non-oil revenue.
The government said these remained central to its economic strategy, adding that the ultimate objective was to convert recent gains in economic stability into tangible benefits for Nigerians.
