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Opinion

Internal haemorrhage as threats to telecoms services

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By Sonny Aragba-Akpore

Without sounding a death-knell,telecommunications service companies are troubled.
Although,the big players display glamour and pictures of “all is well” what you see is
nothing but a facade as the companies are grasping for breath as a result of the internal haemorhage plaguing their service provision.
And unless government rejigs its policy on foreign exchange as a quick intervention, to cushion importation of equipment to boost services,many of the so called A grade players may go into worst shapes.
Operating Expenditure (OPEX) has more than doubled since 2021 and with dwindling foreign inflows through Foreign Direct Investments(FDIs), some telcos are now holding on to straw to survive.
The operators see their biggest challenges in their inability to provide quality of service and a result of recurrent vandalism of their infrastructure.
Every operator has become its own electricity power provider as supplies from national grid are now a pipe dream.Added to this, the spiral costs of diesel and its alleged incessant theft of same by unnamed persons creates bigger problems.
The rising cost of diesel is very worrisome as a litre that sold between 1200/1400 at pump landing at site is now as high as NGN 2000 per litre on site in some parts of the country.
Confirming the internal haemorhage,in the sector,an official who wants to be anonymous said part of the haemorrhage stems from significant high interconnect debts between players. Telcos are being owed alot of money thereby leading to terminal struggles for survival.
The telcos also list Political incursions as a major drawback hindering survival.
On the issue of Forex sources : “willing seller, willing buyer on forex, problem is bills that are being settled now due to long wait for forext transactions when Forex was at 700N =US1 and now being paid at the prevailing rate of 1,400+
High OPEX remains a major issue coupled with ⁠Low FDIs leading to concerns in industry sustainability.
They claim that the regulator is in a dilemma especially on tariff hike issues.
So Telcos are now on bent knees scrapping to provide services below cost.
And the Government looks elsewhere inspite of manifest inflation on every single item especially now that Infrastructure are experiencing decay and to replace same is slow and painful as telcos lament their inability to deliver robust Services .
To underscore a picture of this haemorrhage,
MTN Nigeria and Airtel Africa (the only two telcos publicly traded) lost N479 billion to currency revaluation and recorded reduced profit margins in the first nine months of 2023.

In its financial report for Q1, 2024, for instance,MTN reported a second successive loss after declaring a loss after tax of N392.7 billion for the first quarter of 2024.

This is coming despite growing its service revenue by 32.0 per cent to N747.3 billion year-on-year, the telco recorded its second loss since it was listed on the Nigerian Exchange.

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It noted that its net loss for the quarter further increased its accumulated losses and negative shareholders’ funds to N599.2 billion and N434.7 billion, respectively. It highlighted that its profit after tax adjusted for the net forex loss declined by 57.8 per cent to N47.1 billion.

“Further adjusting for the impact of the naira devaluation in OPEX, PAT would have been down by 5.3 per cent to N105.6 billion,” MTN said. The telco’s net foreign exchange loss stood at N656.37 billion.

MTN Nigeria’s chief executive officer, Karl Toriola, noted that severe macroeconomic headwinds overshadowed a solid operating performance. He said: “The operating environment in the first quarter remained very challenging, with rising inflation and continued naira depreciation off an already low base.” He stated that the naira’s devaluation and record-high inflation have impacted the operating environment for businesses in Nigeria.

The operators are agitating for tariff hikes as part of measures to sustain their operating expenditure.But that is half way through if all they get the regulator,s ,Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC)’s nod.

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The operators are trying to justify the tariff increase because “Consumer prices in other sectors have seen a steep rise over the last six years as they adjust to reflect macroeconomic realities. However, telco prices have remained flat and even declined. Contrary to the price trends in other sectors, telcos have had to adjust for the macroeconomic headwinds caused by an increasing erosion of margins. Other highly regulated sectors such as power and insurance have implemented price increases over the last year. Insurance prices have risen 200 per cent with power raising prices by over 40 per cent.”

They also decry the strong macroeconomic headwinds which have occasioned tough operating conditions, leading to a decline in CAPEX (Domestic) and Foreign Direct (Capital Inflow) investments into the industry by 30.37 per cent and 46.9 per cent respectively between 2021 and 2022.

These headwinds include inability to source foreign exchange and attract foreign direct investment because investors have become uncomfortable because of the grave economic uncertainty in the country.

Without meaning to link the crisis to a flip flop economy,the operators think unless something urgent is done,providing quality of service will not be sustainable because of the multiple effects of operating costs.

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Owing to the macroeconomic crisis , resulting in increased cost of operation and overheads, most telecom companies in Nigeria have been posting losses, making it difficult for them to pay their Annual Operating Levy (AOL) to the Commission as and when due.

The operators are worried about the restrictive regulatory approach which is unconducive for the highly needed innovation in this evolutionary era of newer communication technologies.

“We invite the EVC to note that the convergence of telecommunications with digital and multimedia services has greatly reduced the revenue streams from traditional telecommunications services (voice, SMS, etc.)and to survive this digital era, telecommunications operators have no choice but to quickly evolve into digital and platform service providers which enable newer and advanced means and uses of communications technology and this is only possible in a regulatory environment that enables the development of innovative products and services, with a flexible regulator that is well-informed on the latest technology developments/requisite regulatory frameworks, and an appreciation for the reverberating impact of derailing this progression.” they lamented.

In 2023,MTN declared its first loss after tax of N137 billion. and Its retained earnings and shareholders’ fund fell to negative N208.0 billion and N40.8 billion, respectively.
For Airtel, profit before taxes result for the half-year 2023 was much worse, it dropped by a staggering 97.7 per cent – from $516 million to $12 million – compared to the results from 2022.

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The report showed that Airtel had consistently grown its revenue in Nigeria since Q2 2018. The only time there was a drop in revenue between quarters was in 2020 when revenue dropped from $377 million in Q1 2020 to $341 million in Q2 2020. This $36 million drop in revenue is nothing compared to the decline seen in 2023.

Its revenue for Q1 2023 was $543 million, a $2 million drop compared to the previous quarter – $545 million in Q4 2022. By Q2 2022, the drop in revenue increased by $15 million, from $543 million to $528 million.

Although figures of losses sustained by the other unquoted telcos are unavailable,there are strong indications that all is not well.
Several of them are owing interconnect fees and generally unable and or late in payment of AOL.
Consequently,the late and inability to pay AOL to the NCC tells one of the bad stories of the situation on ground.
In general terms,the sector is believed to be wobbling and In fits.
Deposit Money Banks are also part of the telcos headaches as they are believed to be indebted to the tune of about Two hundred billion naira (#200b) in unsettled Unstructured Supplementary Service Bus(USSD) services rendered by telcos to the banks.
The telcos also bemoan the fate of their equipment and infrastructure across the country.
They had canvassed for comprehensive protections for their infrastructure by suggesting to government to make telecommunications equipment Critical National Infrastructure (CNI) but government officials say this is “Work In Progress (WIP) as the telcos wait in limbo.
Apart from these,they have had to contend with multiple taxations whereby the Federal Government,states and council governments put immense pressure on telcos for various taxes at different levels.
Apart from the taxes,Right of Way is an albatross that had defied any solutions and so the telcos have had to live with it.
The telcos say that
“notwithstanding the much-touted resilience of the telecommunications sector and its commendable double-digit contribution to the GDP, we wish to strongly impress on the NCC the pressing need to avert the grave risk looming in the industry’s horizon by taking clinical and definitive action towards repositioning the industry for growth and increased investments, because ultimately , it is our considered view that a thriving telecommunications sector will have a far-reaching effect on:
o Mobile Network Operators as they will remain going concerns who can carry on sustainable operations with the overall intention of value creation and enabling connectedness;
o The maximization of consumer welfare for Nigerians who, as the the NCC rightly noted, are the most critical stakeholders in the telecommunications value chain; and
o The Government itself, given that the net effect of a sustainable communications industry is bolstered investor confidence, increased contribution to GDP and, by extension, revenue growth in the form of payment of increased direct/indirect taxes and Annual Operating Levies” in that regard.

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Opinion

NCC, Starlink tariff feud rattles telecom industry

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By Sonny Aragba-Akpore

An imminent feud is underway between telecommunications regulator, Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC) on one hand and Starlink and Mobile Network Operators ( MNOS) on the other.

On October 1, 2024 ,Starlink, an internet service provider (ISP) via satellite owned by Elon Musk, the world’s richest man, announced an increase in its monthly subscription prices in Nigeria.

The company, blaming inflation, increased its standard package for residential housing, monthly subscription to N75,000, from N38,000 per month — an increase of 97.37 percent.

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The price for the mobile-regional roaming unlimited is now N167,000 while that of the mobile-global roaming service is N717,000.

The cost of the Starlink hardware was also increased from N440,000 to N590,000.

Sensing industry backlash, the Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC) came out with a statement on Tuesday, October 8,2024 saying Starlink had contravened sections 108 and 111 of the Nigerian Communications Act 2003 by unilaterally increasing tariffs without approval.

“The decision by Starlink to unilaterally review its subscription packages upwards did not receive the approval of the Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC),” NCC,s said in an initial original statement adding that “We were surprised that the company jumped the gun by announcing price changes after filing a request to the Commission seeking approval for price adjustment for which the Commission was yet to communicate a decision.”

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“The action of the company appears to be a contravention of Sections 108 and 111 of the Nigerian Communications Act (NCA) 2003, and Starlink’s Licence Conditions regarding tariffs.

“The Commission will, therefore, take appropriate enforcement measures against any action by a licensee that is capable of eroding the regulatory stability of the telecommunications industry.”

NCC statement said it was “surprised” when the company announced the price changes.

It said Starlink had filed a request with the commission for a price adjustment, but the regulator was yet to give approval adding that the commission would take enforcement measures against the satellite company.

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The NCC said Starlink contravened section 108 of the NCA 2003 which gives the NCC authority to regulate telecom tariffs, stating that no licensee can impose charges for services without obtaining tariff approval from the commission.

Section 111 of the Act empowers the telecoms regulator to impose financial penalties on any licensee that exceeds approved tariffs, regardless of other legal provisions.

“Notwithstanding any other provision of this Act, the commission shall prescribe and enforce appropriate financial penalties upon any holder of an individual licence who exceeds the tariff rates duly approved by the commission for the provision of any of its services,” the Act reads.

Mobile Network Operators (MNOS) in Nigeria have been agitating for tariff hikes based on rising inflation and several economic headwinds including high cost of diesel, rising cost of doing business, high foreign exchange rates among others saying their services were overdue for price increments as they have not raised rates in the last 11 years.

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Strangely, a few hours after the NCC statement on Starlink, and in what appeared to be a face-saving move, the NCC came out with another statement to withdraw the earlier one saying “it was sent in error “.

It is however not clear if the regulator has capitulated on its laws and guidelines because industry players who have clamored for tariff raise for so long citing economic headwinds and high foreign exchange including spiraling cost of doing business are worried that should the NCC keep mum over the Starlink unilateral tariff hike, then Mobile Network Operators (MNOs) May resort to self help.

Although no reason was given for the withdrawal of that statement, analysts think the commission may have been complacent as a result of regulatory inactivities especially now that there is a lull in the industry due to dwindling fortunes of operators some of whom have declared losses due to the economic downturn.

Industry players frown at what is happening and have begun to criticize the NCC against the backdrop of the regulator’s unyielding stance on the clamor for an increase in tariffs by local telecom operators, especially in the last two years whereas, Starlink, an internet service provider that entered the market officially in January 2023,has been allegedly allowed to increase its tariffs by almost 100%.

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An analyst quoted a major industry player as saying “Starlink only beams its satellite in Nigeria and acquired an ISP licence from the NCC to offer its service in the country. It currently has zero investment in the country.

“Many of us started since the liberalization of the telecom sector, putting in all our resources to deploy more infrastructure to get more Nigerians connected despite the various challenges in the operating environment.

“We have been appealing to the Commission to allow us to implement a tariff review for years now, but it said it had to carry out a cost-based study before any decision could be made. We are still waiting for the result of that study. Now, allowing Starlink to implement price increase in the same market shows the regulator’s double standard.”

The NCC may have lost steam over its regulatory oversight and demonstrate lack of capacity especially in addressing the issue of tariff increases by local players.

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The operators believe the Commission simply woke up from its slumbers by announcing a statement it could not sustain let alone justify.

“This is certainly not the NCC of our founding fathers “ one veteran player who would rather be addressed as one of the “ancestors “ of the industry lamented.

Starlink came with disruptive technologies that are already making a world of difference for consumers and we looked on as if nothing was happening. The company came prepared.

It obtained six licenses from the NCC and got various permits and approvals to flag off the business of internet services via satellite and equally signed Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) and distribution agreements with Nigerian companies including, Technology Distribution Africa (TD),a big distributor of major technology brands and promoted by a restless technology czar ,Leo Stan Ekeh.

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Starlink didn’t stop there ,it has decided to take services to even the unserved and under served communities in Nigeria and parts of Africa for which TD boasts it’s ready for the long haul partnership.

Space Exploration Technology Corporation (Space X ) owners of Starlink got six licenses in a roll from the NCC and is expected to deploy nearly $30b over time for the Nigerian operations alone.

The government is excited that with the entry of Starlink,it may achieve 70% broadband connectivity by 2025 as enshrined in the National Broadband Plan (NBP) 2020–2025.

But is the government just desperate to achieve this at the expense of low purchasing powers of subscribers? Time will tell.

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Starlink,s six licenses include that for ISP, Gateway Service Provider, international Data Access (IDA),Sales and Installation Major, Gateway Earth Station and Very Small Aperture Terminal (VSAT) thus making it a mega player and a big threat to other players in the industry.

Starlink officially announced its presence in Nigeria in January 2023. The company, which initially quoted its prices in dollars at $600 for the hardware and $43 for the subscription, changed to naira upon its official announcement.

SpaceX’s Starlink satellite internet service has more than four million global subscribers, achieving rapid growth despite mounting competition.

SpaceX confirmed the news recently after company President Gwynne Shotwell hinted earlier that the service would reach the mark within days. This represents a remarkable achievement for Starlink, which only crossed three million subscribers in May, highlighting the company’s accelerating growth in the satellite internet market.

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Since its beta launch in October 2020, Starlink has rapidly scaled, growing from one million subscribers by December 2022, to two million by September 2023, and now four million just months later. The service operates through a vast constellation of nearly 6,000 satellites, providing satellite internet to users in almost 100 countries, including expanding into previously underserved regions like Africa and the Pacific islands. Starlink’s rapid growth reflects both its market dominance and the rising demand for satellite internet services, which offer coverage in areas lacking traditional broadband infrastructure.

While cable cuts remain a nightmare,Starlink’s boasts of bridging the gap, with its potential impact extending far beyond addressing temporary outages. These include reaching Underserved Areas where Traditional ISPs often struggle to reach remote regions due to the high cost of infrastructure deployment.

Starlink’s satellite-based approach can effectively bridge this gap, offering high-speed internet access to previously underserved communities by unlocking educational and economic opportunities for millions of Nigerians currently excluded from the digital world.

Starlink boosts Business Continuity by avoiding Frequent internet disruptions that can be detrimental to businesses, especially those reliant on online operations.

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Starlink claims to be reliable with independent internet access that can provide much-needed resilience, ensuring business continuity even during cable outages.

The recent cable cuts hampered online learning and remote work arrangements. Starlink’s stable internet connection may have facilitated smoother online learning experiences for students and enable seamless remote work for professionals across the country.

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Opinion

Botched 5G services and the Wi-Fi 6 gamble

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By Sonny Aragba-Akpore

When fully implemented,Fifth Generation (5G) technology and services will transform the telecommunications landscape in Nigeria like nothing else before it,Isa Pantami,the immediate past Communications and Digital Economy Minister boasted on the eve of the 5G auction three years ago.He spoke with certainty and confidence.
And like in a relay race,the Chief Executive of the Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC),Umar Garba Danbatta took the baton and began the spirited advocacy building frenzied hypes around the auction.
Pantami had allegedly misled President Mohammadu Buhari, the Federal Executive Council (FEC) and everyone else in the country to believe that 5G will provide life abundance with unbelievable internet speed like lightening.
The first auction saw MTN and Mafab Communications limited (a Special Purpose Vehicle) winning two available lots at a bid price of $273.6m each.
A little over a year later,Airtel Africa got a third lot thus completing the experimental triumvirate.
But that is where the story of 5G ends so much that even the people at NCC cannot in all sincerity beat their chests to say 5G exists and will gladly list it as part of their achievements.
If it exists at all,it is better imagined because nothing is being said about it either on earth or elsewhere.
5G networks are not visible.Perhaps it is available and in use by an insignificant fraction of the population.
Even the licence beneficiaries speak about it in subdued tones and perhaps see the investment like it’s often said in local parlance as “bad market “.
Elsewhere in Africa,some countries are in the race and even though they are yet to fully achieve meaningful milestones,there are strong indications that they are coasting home to victory in this race.Not yet in Nigeria.
The India example is exemplary.Perhaps,many countries should visit India and ask them how they were able to achieve the milestones especially in a country of over 1.428 billion population.
The Indian regulator created a workable template introducing a business model that allows beneficiaries of the bid to stagger license fees payments over a period of 10 years to enable them deploy services sensing that equipment and infrastructure for 5G is not a walk in the park.
And the operators appreciate that move.
But in Nigeria,the people who midwifed 5G did it to raise money for government and allegedly made some consultants smile to the bank after collecting their well appointed commissions.
And now neither the license beneficiaries nor the people they are supposed to serve have anything to show for all the troubles.
But while consumers are in a dilemma waiting for when the services will ever come,the NCC on September 19,2024 announced in Lagos another experiment if not a gamble.
It is introducing Wireless Fidelity (Wi-Fi 6) which they claim will bridge the digital divide whereby the speed of internet will be “amazing.”
Globally,Wi-Fi 6 is not new.It has taken root in parts of the world including the United States,(USA),South Korea,Canada,U.K and many others.
The International Telecommunications Union (ITU) created workable templates for it some of which the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) of the USA had adopted with a home grown modification.
So if Nigeria adopts it,the question is how prepared is the regulator in Abuja to manage it for the benefit of consumers.?Will it be another hype like we saw in 5G?
Speeches and more speeches were made on September 19,2024 in Lagos on the subject with a number of participants having their reservations if not misgivings.
When the NCC conducted the 5G
auction of two lots of 100 MHz slots of 3.5 GHz band for the deployment of 5G networks in
Nigeria it was done with funfare likened to bazaar of sorts.
Three companies participated in the auction process and the bidding commenced at $199.37m, as against the reserve price of $197.4m (75 billion naira) set by the NCC
After 11 rounds of bidding, the auction ended at $273.6m for each available lot with MTN Nigeria Communications Plc (MTN) and Mafab Communications Limited (Mafab) emerging as preferred bidders.
And the preferred bidders were
expected to pay the winning bid price, less the Intention-to-Bid Deposit, no later than February 24,2022.
MTN was to pay an additional sum of $15.9m to be assigned the preferred Lot One (3500-3600
MHz), while Mafab was assigned Lot Two (3700-3800 MHz), at no extra cost.
In addition, Mafab was required to acquire a Unified Access Service License, which is the operational license for the frequency spectrum at an additional fee of N374.6m (approximately $905,000 then).
The Information Memorandum (IM) provided for a validity period of 10 years for the awarded
spectrum and further requires licensees to roll out service in at least one state in each geo-political zone within the first two years from the effective date of the license. Further roll out was expected in six additional states in the 3rd and 5th years.
The technology is expected to have been fully deployed nationwide between the 6th and 10th year of the award of the license. Roll out in each state was expected to be a minimum of five sites per state.
The Federal Government earned $820.8 million from the auctioning of the 5G licence processes.
Pantami who said it was a game changer told President Muhammadu Buhari administration then that 5G will make a world of difference.
According to Pantami , in addition to the revenue generated from the 5G spectrum, revenue is being generated from other spectrum fees. “For example, in 2020, N26,428,642,451.61 was generated as spectrum fees.”
“MTN, Mafab and Airtel all have participated in the auction process and each obtained a lot of 100 MHz from the 3.5GHz spectrum after successfully participating in the auction process.The story has not gone beyond that.
Now another experiment,the Wi fi 6 which ITU says could be accessed on the 5925–7125 Megahertz (MHZ) band, and is designed to deliver optimized performance for next-generation use cases.
As with any wireless technology, Wi‑Fi depends on access to radio frequency spectrum. But a lack of spectrum threatens future Wi‑Fi performance and functionality.
“ Policymakers, recognizing this, are expanding Wi‑Fi spectrum access with a focus on the 5925–7125 megahertz (MHz), or 6 gigahertz (GHz), frequency band. Opening this band to Wi‑Fi will enable a wide range of new use cases,”ITU submits.

These — combined with expanded broadband access via fibre or satellite — promise to deliver versatile and extremely affordable connectivity. This makes Wi‑Fi an ideal force multiplier for connectivity.
ITU explains that the case for allowing Wi‑Fi services in the 5925–7125 MHz band is clear and compelling, with 6 GHz Wi‑Fi already delivering real socio-economic benefits in many countries.

“The diverse and growing product ecosystem for 6 GHz Wi‑Fi fits perfectly with broadband objectives in developed and developing countries — and without disrupting incumbent operations.”
Granting Wi‑Fi access to the 5925–7125 MHz band would be the best way to maximize the socio-economic value of this spectrum. Conversely, 6 GHz IMT “vaporware” looks far from achieving commercial feasibility, particularly given a total absence of equipment at this stage.”

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The ITU says in Real-World Speed and practical real-world scenarios, WiFi 5 typically provides speeds ranging from 300 Megabit per second (Mbps) to 1.7 Gbps. “On the other hand, WiFi 6 can provide speeds ranging from 600 Mbps to 4.8 Gbps or more in real-world usage.”
According to ITU,”Wi-Fi 6 is the latest standard from the Wi-Fi Alliance based on the 802.11ax protocol, and provides critical capabilities needed for next generation enterprise requirements. “

Wi-Fi 6, also known as 802.11ax, is the latest generation and standard for wireless networking that replaces the 802.11ac, or Wi-Fi 5, standard. Prior to the release of Wi-Fi 6, Wi-Fi standards were identified by version numbers ranging from 802.11b to 802.11ac.
Wifi 6 is capable of connecting no fewer than eight devices simultaneously and creates a seamless connection to these devices at minimal costs.

Despite the beauty and robustness of Wi-Fi 6,there are drawbacks .
“If iPhone is older than the iPhone 11, it can’t use Wi-Fi 6. But there are other ways to make your phone’s internet run as fast as possible.

An older laptop won’t be able to take advantage of Wi-Fi 6 either. A Wi-Fi 6 router will still work with older devices, you just won’t enjoy all the benefits listed above.”ITU submits.
When he spoke at the NCC Yearly Stakeholders Consultative Forum on Emerging Technologies in Lagos last week,Executive Commissioner (Technical Services) Abraham Oshadami told his audience that “Wi-Fi-6 represents a significant leap in wireless technology. It offers an opportunity to support more devices with faster speed and greater reliability.” adding that “this is particularly strategic in a world increasingly dominated by the Internet of Things (IoT), where everything from smart homes to advanced industrial systems depends on robust wireless connectivity.”

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Oshadami said that the deployment in the lower 6GHz band is not just about faster internet; “it’s about enabling the next generation of technological innovation and economic growth.”
Oshadami,with a measure of confidence went memory lane saying “throughout the last ITU Radiocommunications (ITU-R) Sector study cycle, experts discussed, amongst many other things, the use of Wi-Fi in the lower 6GHz Spectrum Band and made recommendations that were subsequently finalized at the 2023 World Radiocommunications Conference (WRC-23) where the 6GHz Spectrum Band was allocated for Wi-Fi and IMT applications.”
He said prior to the 2023 World Radiocommunications Conference, African Telecommunications Union (ATU) had already concluded its decision on the 6GHz Spectrum Band and recommended that administrations in Africa adopt the lower 6GHz for Wi-Fi-6 applications. “This decision was taken to WRC-23 and at the end of the day, Africa came out victorious. Having played a vital role in securing this spectrum for Wi-Fi deployment, it has become imperative to open the frequency for deployment of Wi-Fi Application.

However, as a world class organisation and in the spirit of participatory regulation, we cannot sit down in our offices and make unilateral decisions without the input of our stakeholders” hence the consultative forum on emerging technologies.
Although it is not clear when services on Wi-Fi 6 will flag off and modalities for licences to be issued or whether it will be an open market for all comers,there are strong indications that licensing may be very flexible especially with regards to assignment of the frequency to power the system.
But the question that is on the lips of service providers and the enthusiastic consumers is whether this will not go the way of 5G?
Time will tell.

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Opinion

Nigeria at 64: The Case for Purposeful Leadership

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By Franklyn Ginger-Eke

As Nigeria marks her 64th Independence Anniversary in October 2024, the celebratory mood across the nation is juxtaposed with an undeniable reality: the country is in the throes of a profound economic crisis. Under the leadership of President Bola Tinubu, inflation has skyrocketed to 25.8%, unemployment remains intractably high at 33%, and the value of the naira continues to plummet. In households across Nigeria, many citizens grapple with rising food prices, increased taxes, and a shortage of opportunities that has led to a growing sense of desperation and disillusionment.
The deepening hardship signals one clear truth: the need for purposeful, responsive, and selfless leadership has never been greater.
For decades, leadership in Nigeria has been synonymous with patronage, corruption, and a disconnect from the everyday struggles of the average citizen. This leadership deficit has compounded economic challenges, resulting in sluggish reforms and inadequate public infrastructure. Today, the nation sits precariously at the crossroads of immense potential and escalating hardship.
But economic failure is not just about policies or markets; it is a reflection of governance. It mirrors the quality of decisions made by leaders who either lack the courage or the will to tackle deep-rooted problems. It is, at its core, a crisis of leadership.
In these challenging times, it is imperative to call for a renaissance of leadership across all sectors—politics, business, and civil society. Nigeria does not need leaders who merely occupy offices; it needs leaders who will.
True leadership is service, not dominance. Our leaders must shift from the “big man” syndrome to a model where serving the people is paramount. In times of hardship, leaders must be the first to make sacrifices, showing empathy and prioritizing the needs of the populace above personal gain.
Engage in Data-Driven Decision Making: Leadership in the 21st century must be informed by data, not sentiment. The ongoing economic challenges demand evidence-based solutions, not populism. Leaders must rigorously analyze socio-economic indicators—like unemployment rates, inflation, and poverty levels—before rolling out policies that impact millions of lives.
Nigerian leaders must rise above the corruption scandals and nepotism that have marred governance for decades. Leadership with integrity—free from self-serving agendas—is the bedrock of national transformation.

The economic landscape is rapidly evolving, requiring leaders who are not only responsive to the immediate needs of the people but are also agile enough to adapt their policies to changing realities. As poverty deepens, citizens expect leaders who understand their plight and can provide immediate relief through targeted interventions such as social safety nets, subsidies for essential goods, and job creation initiatives.
Countries that have successfully navigated economic crises are often those that had leaders who led with purpose and clarity. In Singapore, Lee Kuan Yew’s transformative leadership demonstrated how a focus on pragmatic governance, zero tolerance for corruption, and a clear vision for development can catapult a struggling nation to prosperity. Similarly, post-apartheid South Africa saw Nelson Mandela exemplify sacrificial leadership, uniting a deeply divided country while laying the foundation for inclusive governance.
Nigeria, with its vast resources and entrepreneurial population, can similarly chart a new path—if only it adopts a leadership paradigm that is purposeful, pragmatic, and people-centred.
The Role of Leaders Across All Strata
While the government bears the bulk of the responsibility, leadership is required across every facet of Nigerian society. Business leaders must lead ethically, rejecting exploitative practices that burden the consumer. Civil society leaders must act as watchdogs, holding those in power accountable while proposing viable solutions to national challenges. Community leaders must serve as pillars of integrity, fostering unity and a shared sense of purpose.
A Call to Action: Time to Reinvent Leadership
It is time for Nigeria’s leaders, at all levels, to re-invent themselves. They must rise to the occasion and provide the transformative leadership that this moment demands.

For Nigeria to realize her potential, leaders must:
Listen to the People.

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Policy must align with the reality on the ground. The rise in fuel prices, taxes, and unemployment means leaders must prioritize the voice of the citizens, especially the most vulnerable.

Leaders must work to build trust, a commodity that has been lost due to years of unfulfilled promises and opaque governance practices. In the digital age, transparency and accountability are non-negotiable.

No single institution can solve Nigeria’s problems. Political, business, and civil society leaders must work in concert to forge solutions to the complex challenges we face, from economic recovery to social cohesion.

As Nigeria steps into her 64th year of independence, the case for purposeful leadership cannot be overemphasized. The economic challenges are daunting, and the road to recovery will be long and difficult. But with a leadership class that is willing to sacrifice, to serve with dignity, and to put the people first, there is hope for a better tomorrow.
The time for excuses is over. Now is the time for leaders who can rise above narrow interests and lead Nigeria into an era of prosperity, unity, and purpose.
The Nigerian people are watching. History will judge our leaders not by their intentions but by their actions. Let this anniversary be the moment we look back on as the turning point—when Nigeria’s leaders finally rose to the challenge and led with purpose.
At The Rainbow Strategy, we stand as partners in shaping a better narrative for Nigeria. Through strategic communication, stakeholder engagement, and public affairs, we are committed to working with leaders across sectors to forge a path that reflects the true potential of our great nation. Together, we can chart a course for a Nigeria where leadership is defined by service, and where every citizen is empowered to thrive.
Happy Independence, Nigeria! May the road ahead be one of renewal, transformation, and lasting change.

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* Franklyn Ginger-Eke, a public affairs and strategic communication expert. writes from Abuja.

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