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Chad’s transition in jeopardy as deadline looms

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With an electoral process dominated by the interim president and former ruling party, Chad’s transition is in jeopardy. With an electoral process dominated by the interim president and former ruling party, Chad’s transition is in jeopardy.

After an unconstitutional takeover in 2021, Chad’s transition to democracy is entering its final phase, with the adoption of the new constitution last December. In preparation for presidential elections before October 2024, a National Election Management Agency and Constitutional Council have been set up – but how free and fair will these polls be?

Having returned from exile, Succès Masra, leader of the strongest opposition party Les Transformateurs (The Transformers), was appointed prime minister on 1 January. His decision to join the government means the opposition’s ability to criticise the administration will be diminished.

The electoral process is dominated by the transitional president, Mahamat Déby, who was selected by the former ruling party, the Patriotic Salvation Movement (MPS), as its candidate for the presidential elections.

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The law on the election agency’s powers, organisation and functioning was adopted by the National Transitional Council on 26 January. It enshrines the agency’s independence and its members’ immutability during their seven-year mandate – two principles aimed at guaranteeing impartiality.

However, the way its members are appointed is problematic. Of the 15 members, eight are chosen by the transitional president, four by the Senate president, and three by the National Transitional Council president. In the absence of a Senate, it’s up to the council president, who is the former MPS secretary-general, to appoint these four members.

The election agency chairman, Ahmed Bartchiret, is a magistrate and former president of the Supreme Court, but also a member of the former ruling party and close to Déby. He chaired the National Dialogue’s ad hoc commission, which recommended delaying the transition for two years. Most other officers and members of the election agency are also from the former MPS.

The Constitutional Council, which will be responsible for adjudicating electoral disputes, is headed by Jean-Bernard Padaré, a former minister, deputy secretary-general and spokesperson for the MPS. Seven out of the council’s nine members are affiliated with the former ruling party or allied parties.

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Civil society and the opposition believe that with an electoral body controlled by the transitional president, who will likely contest the election, the dice are loaded against them from the start.

Neither of the opposition political party coalitions – the Consultation Group of Political Actors and the Republican Platform – recognise the National Transitional Council, Supreme Court, Constitutional Council, or election agency. Civil society and opposition parties – including Les Transformateurs, which now heads the government – are not represented in the election agency and Constitutional Council. To ensure total control over the upcoming polls, the MPS-transitional president team has taken the lion’s share of positions.

Government Minister and Secretary-General Ramatou Houtouin described the election agency as ‘a permanent institution, with no political nuances, whose members are formally prohibited from serving as leaders of political parties, thus reinforcing its neutrality.’

But in practice, the agency’s composition contradicts this vision and the country’s constitution. Article 238 says that ‘in carrying out its mission, the National Agency for the Management of Elections shall act with complete independence, impartiality, integrity, transparency and professionalism.’

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This is reminiscent of how the national commission responsible for organising the constitutional referendum in 2023 was set up. Despite the Transition Charter guaranteeing this institution’s neutrality, it too was dominated by stakeholders close to the transitional president. Even though they were not strongly contested, the referendum results left many perplexed by both the turnout and the outcome.

Meanwhile, political dialogue between the MPS, government and opposition parties appears to be at a standstill. The Kinshasa Convention, an agreement between the transitional government and Les Transformateurs, was presented as fostering reconciliation but has been criticised by other opposition parties and civil society. They say it’s only binding on the two signatories and is a political agreement that undermines a broader discussion and consensus in Chad.

The election agency and Constitutional Council play a vital role in organising and managing voting and arbitrating any disputes that may arise. Their ability to do so independently and impartially is crucial to their success and credibility – and Chad’s peace and stability.

The current election preparations are far from ideal. Dialogue is essential for Chad to move forward. Masra, an opposition member and current prime minister, could be the perfect link between the presidency and the rest of the political class. And although the appointment of a mediator provides leverage for discussion, time is running out.

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Chad’s partners who have supported the transition from the start should offer their services to bring stakeholders together, ease tensions and obtain a minimum consensus around the forthcoming elections. These include the Economic Community of Central African States, the African Union, the United Nations through the fund to support Chad’s political transition, France and the European Union. The ECCAS facilitator remains central to coordinating actions and achieving better results.

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Russia Slams Trump Plan For ‘Star Wars’ Missile Shield

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Russia on Friday criticised President Donald Trump’s plan to build a “Star Wars”-like missile shield for the United States, saying it risked turning space into an arena of “confrontation”.

In an executive order on Monday, Trump called for the creation of an “Iron Dome for America” to counter ballistic and hypersonic missile threats, reviving parts of a controversial Reagan-era plan nicknamed “Star Wars” that would have placed missile interceptors in space.

“We regard this as yet another confirmation of the US intent to turn space into an arena of armed confrontation and to deploy weapons there,” Russian foreign ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said in a briefing.

Zakharova said the plan would expand Washington’s missile deterrence to a scale “comparable to Reagan’s Star Wars”, which she called “odious”.

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She said the move was primarily aimed at “devaluing Russian and Chinese strategic deterrence capabilities”.

“To put it mildly, these US approaches will not contribute to reducing tensions,” she said.

The “Iron Dome” in Trump’s decree refers to a highly successful system employed by Israel to down short-range rockets.

Washington faces various missile threats from adversaries, but they differ significantly from the short-range weapons that Israel’s Iron Dome is designed to counter.

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Russian President Vladimir Putin last year unveiled a new hypersonic missile nicknamed “Oreshnik”, a weapon that experts believe flies at 10 times the speed of sound.

The United States said in its 2022 National Defense Strategy that Beijing is also closing the gap with Washington when it comes to ballistic and hypersonic missile technology.

Both Moscow and Washington have traded accusations of weaponising space in recent years.

The United States accused Russia last May of deploying a “space weapon” into the same orbit as a US satellite.

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AFP

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25% tariffs on Mexico, Canada begins today

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US President Donald Trump will impose tariffs on Saturday of 25% on Mexico, 25% on Canada and 10% on China, says the White House.

But Trump said on Friday that Canadian oil would be hit with lower tariffs of 10%, which could take effect later, on 18 February.

The president also said he planned to impose tariffs on the European Union in the future, saying the bloc had not treated the US well.

White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said the Canada and Mexico duties were in response to “the illegal fentanyl that they have sourced and allowed to distribute into our country, which has killed tens of millions of Americans”.

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Trump has also repeatedly said the move was to address the large amounts of undocumented migrants that have come across US borders as well as trade deficits with its neighbours.

Ms Leavitt told a news briefing at the White House on Friday: “These are promises made and promises kept by the President.”

During the election campaign, Trump threatened to hit Chinese-made products with tariffs of up to 60%, but held off on any immediate action on his first day back in the White House, instead ordering his administration to study the issue.

US goods imports from China have flattened since 2018, a statistic that economists have attributed in part to a series of escalating tariffs that Trump imposed during his first term.

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Earlier this month, a top Chinese official warned against protectionism as Trump’s return to the presidency renews the threat of a trade war between the world’s two biggest economies – but did not mention the US by name.

Addressing the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, Ding Xuexiang, Vice Premier of China, said his country was looking for a “win-win” solution to trade tensions and wanted to expand its imports.

China, Canada and Mexico are the top US trading partners, accounting for 40% of the goods imported into the US last year, and fears are rising that the new steep levies could kick off a major trade war as well as push up prices in the US.

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said on Friday: “It’s not what we want, but if he moves forward, we will also act.”

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Canada and Mexico have already said that they would respond to US tariffs with measures of their own, while also seeking to assure Washington that they were taking action to address concerns about their US borders.

The BBC has reached out to the Chinese embassy in the US for comment.

If US imports of oil from Canada and Mexico are hit with levies it risks undermining Trump’s promise to bring down the cost of living.

Tariffs are an import tax on goods that are produced abroad.

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In theory, taxing items coming into a country means people are less likely to buy them as they become more expensive.

The intention is that they buy cheaper local products instead – boosting a country’s economy.

But the cost of tariffs on imported energy could be passed on to businesses and consumers, which may increase the prices of everything from petrol to groceries.

Around 40% of the crude that runs through US oil refineries is imported, and the vast majority of it comes from Canada.

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On Friday, Trump agreed tariff costs are sometimes passed along to consumers and that his plans may cause disruption in the short-term.

Mark Carney, the former head of Canada’s and England’s central banks, told BBC Newsnight on Friday that the tariffs will hit economic growth and drive up inflation.

“They’re going to damage the US’s reputation around the world,” said Carney, who is also in the running to replace Prime Minister Trudeau as leader of Canada’s Liberal Party.

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67 dead as plane, helicopter collide midair in US

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A passenger plane and a military helicopter collided mid-air near Ronald Reagan National Airport, killing 67 passengers.

According to Al Jazeera, the incident occurred around 9 p.m. on Wednesday, as reported by the Federal Aviation Administration.

The aircraft involved were a PSA Airlines Bombardier CRJ700, operating as an American Airlines flight, and a US Army Sikorsky UH-60 Black Hawk helicopter.

President Bola Tinubu expressed sadness over the incident, offering condolences to the government and people of United States.

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The Bombardier plane, operated by an American Airlines subsidiary, was approaching Reagan National Airport at around 9:00 pm (0200 GMT) after flying from Wichita, Kansas, when the collision happened.

The aircraft involved was a PSA Airlines Bombardier CRJ700, operating as an American Airlines flight, and a US Army Sikorsky UH-60 Black Hawk helicopter.

According to the US Federal Aviation Administration, the plane carried 60 passengers and four crew members, while the military helicopter had three personnel on board.

US officials said on Thursday that there were likely no survivors.

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“We are now at a point where we are switching from a rescue operation to a recovery operation,” Washington Fire Chief John Donnelly, told a news conference at Reagan National Airport.

“At this point, we don’t believe there are any survivors,” Donnelly said, adding that 28 bodies had been recovered — including one from the helicopter.

In a post via his verified X handle on Thursday, Tinubu commiserated with the families of the victims, the people of the United States, and all affected by the sad incident.

He wrote, “I am deeply saddened by the tragic incident in Washington, D.C.

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“On behalf of Nigeria, I extend our heartfelt condolences to the families of the victims, the people of the United States, and all affected by this profound loss. I commend the courageous efforts of first responders and emergency teams for their selfless work in harsh conditions.

“Nigeria stands in solidarity with the United States Government and its People, united in grief and hopeful for a new day.”

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