Economy

FG Should Be Careful On Ability To Pay Back Loans – Cardoso

Published

12 months ago

March 5, 2024

Naijablitz

The Central Bank of Nigeria has warned Nigeria and other West African nations regarding trends in borrowing practices.

Traditionally, nations often relied on loans from the Paris Club, a group of creditor countries.

However, the CBN said it has observed a significant shift towards borrowing from non-Paris Club members and private lenders, such as banks and investors who buy government bonds.

The West African Institute for Financial and Economic Management has warned that Nigeria is at a high risk of falling into debt distress and urged the federal government to look for ways of improving revenue generation.

Governor of the CBN, Yemi Cardoso, gave the warning in Abuja at the Joint World Bank/IMF/WAIFEM Regional Training on Medium Term Debt Management Strategy in Abuja on Monday.

Represented by Dr Mohammed Musa Tumala, Director of the Monetary Policy Department of the CBN, Cardoso noted that while this change in who countries owe money to might seem like a minor detail, he emphasised that it is a critical development with serious implications.

He argued that the way countries manage debt owed to the Paris Club may not be as effective for these new lenders. Cardoso expressed concern that this new debt landscape could pose a threat to financial stability and economic recovery for many countries.

Cardoso said, “Public debt dynamics are increasingly influenced by significant debt servicing obligations to non-Paris Club members and private lenders, including commercial banks and bond investors.

“This shift in the debt structure represents a critical evolution in the global financial framework, with profound ramifications for public debt management in our countries.”

He also stated that recent events like the COVID-19 pandemic, geopolitical conflicts, and natural disasters have put a strain on many countries’ finances, making them more likely to seek loans from diverse sources.

However, these non-traditional lenders might come with stricter repayment terms and potentially higher risks compared to Paris Club loans.

“Following the COVID-19 pandemic, along with other developments such as geopolitical conflicts and natural disasters, the financial strain on our sub-region has escalated, posing a threat to their macroeconomic and financial stability and prospects for faster recovery,” he said.

Nigeria, despite being classified as having generally moderate debt risk, the CBN urged the federal government to remain cautious, particularly regarding potential liquidity risks. These risks, if not addressed effectively, could stem from weak revenue mobilization, a persistent challenge hindering debt sustainability and economic stability.

What the CBN is saying is that while Nigeria’s overall debt risk is considered moderate, the country still needs to be careful about its ability to pay back its loans (liquidity risk). This risk could become a problem if the government doesn’t collect enough revenue (money) in the future.

Dr Baba Yusuf Musa, Director General of the West African Institute for Financial and Economic Management told journalists, “When you compare Nigeria with the rest of the world or peer countries, you realise that with the 37 per cent debt to GDP ratio, we still have room to borrow but the issue with the Nigerian debt is you don’t use GDP to pay debts rather you use the revenue to pay for any debt”

He added, “If you look at it from the revenue side Nigeria is at a high risk of debt distress in terms of our borrowing so what we need to do now is to step up our capacity to generate revenue, the more revenue we have, the less ratio of debt to revenue we have.”

WAIFEM, he said, is “very much in support of what the federal government is doing because there is a window for the government to raise more revenue, all that the people need to do is to support the federal government diversify the sources of revenue and of course generate more sources of revenue, once we have this we don’t have debt problem but rather revenue problem.

He added, “What the Medium Term Debt Strategy does is that it smoothens the debt service so that going forward when borrowing, you take into consideration the redemption profile that you have and the type of loans that you have in your existing portfolio and then it will enable you also to minimise the cost and risk the future loans will add to the debt portfolio.”

Economy

SEE Naira To Dollar Exchange Rate, Black Market– March 2

Published

2 days ago

March 2, 2025

Naijablitznews

The naira is exchanging for ₦1,500 to 1 US Dollar at the parallel market (black market) in Nigeria.

This means that for every one dollar, you can get the equivalent in naira of ₦1,500 on March 2, 2025.

The black market rate signifies the value at which individuals can trade their dollars for naira outside the official or regulated exchange channels.

Note that the Black Market Exchange rate is typically higher than the official exchange rate because it is not regulated by the government.

Today’s March 2 exchange shows that the naira has remained stable against the dollar, maintaining the same rate as it traded on Saturday, March 1, when the naira exchanged at ₦1,500.

The value of any nation’s currency is determined by aggregate supply and demand.

The forces of supply and demand are themselves influenced by a number of factors, including interest rates, inflation, capital flow, and money supply.

Economy

Nigeria’s economy experiencing growth as GDP grows 3.84% in Q4

Published

7 days ago

February 26, 2025

Kayode Sanni-Arewa

Nigeria’s strategy to reduce its dependence on oil is proving effective, with the non-oil sector contributing 95.40 percent to the gross domestic product (GDP) in real terms in the fourth quarter of 2024.

The oil sector, however, only accounted for a scant 4.60 percent during this period.

The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) had previously communicated its plans to rebase the GDP but has since reverted to the traditional approach.

Although there was no explanation from the statistics house on why it failed to rebase the GDP, speculations are that it stepped back because of the backlash it received from the rebased CPI figures it released just last week.

Analysts say the inability to release rebased GDP figures is a significant concern, noting that rebased figures are essential for providing an accurate and up-to-date picture of the economy.

They say that without rebasing, the GDP figures may not accurately reflect the current structure and size of the Nigerian economy, particularly given the rapid changes in sectors like technology and services.

The reform measures introduced by the present administration brought with them intense hardship on the populace. With high inflation draining the purchasing power of the citizens, many businesses have either shut down or found their way out of the country, throwing many into the unemployment market.

According to the report released yesterday, the gross domestic product (GDP) in real terms grew by 3.84 per cent in the fourth quarter (Q4) of 2024 on a year-on-year basis, which is 0.38 percentage points higher than the rate recorded in Q4 2023, which was 3.46 per cent.

The report shows that the year 2024 ended with an overall annual GDP growth rate of 3.40 per cent. This is higher than the projections by agencies like the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which had earlier projected that the country’s GDP would grow by 3.2 per cent in 2024.

The NBS reports that the services sector remains the major driver of the economy, growing by 5.37 per cent and contributing 57.38 per cent to the aggregate GDP. On a quarter-on-quarter basis, the real GDP grew by 10.99 per cent in Q4 2024, reflecting a higher production level than in Q3 2024.

The estimated economic activity in real terms for Q4 2024 stood at ₦22,610,393.45 million, which is higher than the rates recorded in Q3 2024 and Q4 2023, which stood at ₦20,115,766.93 million and ₦21,773,263.25 million, respectively.

In nominal terms, aggregate GDP stood at ₦78,374,120.95 million in Q4 of 2024, indicating a year-on-year nominal growth rate of 18.91 per cent.
This is higher than the value of ₦65,908,258.59 million in Q4 2023 and ₦71,131,091.07 million in the preceding quarter.

The NBS reports that the economic performance of the non-oil sector in Q4 2024 is attributed to the growth recorded in some economic activities, including rail transport and pipelines, metal ores, financial institutions, road transport, quarrying and other minerals, and insurance.

An analysis of the report shows that the major contributing economic activities in real terms in the quarter under review are crop production (23.42 per cent), trade (15.11 per cent), telecommunication (14.40 per cent), real estate (5.88 per cent), financial institutions (5.76 per cent), and crude petroleum (4.60 per cent).

The agricultural sector grew by 1.76 per cent, while the industry grew by 2.00 per cent, showing a decline compared to the rate recorded in Q4 2023 at 2.10 per cent and 3.86 per cent.

The report shows that agriculture contributed 25.59 per cent, industry 17.03 per cent, and services 57.38 per cent. Agriculture and industry’s contributions were less than their contributions in Q4 of 2023 by 0.53 per cent and 0.31 percentage points. The services sector had the highest contribution to the GDP in Q4 2024, surpassing its contribution in the corresponding quarter of 2023 by 0.83 percentage points.

The annual contributions of the economic sectors show that agriculture contributed 24.64 per cent in 2024, which is lower compared to its contribution of 25.18 per cent in 2023. Similarly, the industry sector’s annual contribution was 18.47 per cent, which is also lower than the figure recorded for 2023, which was 18.65 per cent.

However, the services sector’s contribution for 2024 was 56.89 per cent, exceeding the 56.18 per cent recorded for 2023.

Further disaggregation of the economic activities into oil and non-oil sectors shows that oil GDP grew by 1.48 per cent in Q4 2024, which is a decline compared to 12.11 per cent recorded in Q4 2023 and the previous quarter of Q3 2024, which stood at 5.17 per cent.

The annual oil GDP for 2024 grew by 5.54 per cent, which is 7.75 per cent higher than the annual GDP recorded for 2023 (-2.22 per cent), while the annual contribution of oil stood at 5.51 per cent in 2024, higher than its contribution in Q4 2023, which was 5.40 per cent.

The report also shows that the fourth quarter of 2024 recorded an average daily oil production of 1.54 million barrels per day (mbpd), lower than the daily average production of 1.56 mbpd recorded in the same quarter of 2023 by 0.03 mbpd.

On the contrary, the fourth quarter of 2024 production volume was higher than that of the third quarter of 2024 (1.47 mbpd) by 0.06 mbpd.

Reacting to the GDP report, Professor Godwin Oyedokun of Lead City University, Ibadan, said the GDP growth is a moderately positive sign, but the lack of rebased figures raises concerns.

He said, “The Nigerian government needs to address the challenges of data collection and rebasing, as well as focus on inclusive growth and economic diversification. This lack of current data makes it harder to properly create effective economic policy.”

Economy

CBN targets single-digit inflation in three years

Published

2 weeks ago

February 21, 2025

Kayode Sanni-Arewa

The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has set its sights on reducing inflation to a single digit in the medium to long term, following the recent rebasing of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and subsequent decline in inflation to 24.48 per cent.

CBN Governor, Dr Olayemi Cardoso, who spoke yesterday at a press briefing after the first Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting of 2025, reiterated the apex bank’s commitment to orthodox monetary policies, noting that the positive outcomes so far indicate that inflation is trending downward.

He said that after two days of deliberation, the MPC decided to maintain all key monetary policy parameters, including the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) at 27.50 per cent, the asymmetric corridor around the MPR at +500/-100 basis points, the Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) at 50.00 per cent for Deposit Money Banks and 16.00 per cent for Merchant Banks, and the Liquidity Ratio at 30.00 per cent.

Clarifying the impact of the rebased CPI, Cardoso explained that the lower inflation figure should not be misinterpreted.

He underlined the need to analyse more data before drawing comparisons, noting that the CBN is currently assessing the figures and will provide further guidance in due course.

Despite the complexities, he pointed out that inflation is gradually declining, supported by the recent stability and appreciation of the foreign exchange rate, with the differential between the official and parallel markets now less than one percent.

He stressed the critical importance of collaboration between monetary and fiscal authorities in sustaining recent economic improvements.

He cited the recent Monetary Policy Forum as an example, where stakeholders from the organised private sector, Bureau de Change operators, and government representatives, including the Minister of Finance, participated.

Cardoso noted that both sides are committed to deepening their dialogue and holding regular meetings to address key economic issues proactively.

Addressing concerns about the impact of elevated borrowing costs on economic growth, the CBN Governor assured that the apex bank’s primary objective is to stabilize the foreign exchange and financial markets.

He expressed confidence that such stability would attract increased foreign investments, stimulating the much-needed economic growth.

He also highlighted the competitiveness of the Nigerian currency, which has spurred growing interest from international investors.

Cardoso said that improved oil production, reaching 1.54 million barrels per day by the end of January 2025, would strengthen Nigeria’s current account position and positively impact external reserves. Despite prevailing macroeconomic challenges, the MPC observed that the banking sector remains resilient. However, the Committee urged the CBN to maintain vigilant oversight, particularly in light of ongoing banking system recapitalisation, ensuring that only quality capital is injected.

The MPC noted several factors expected to positively influence price dynamics in the near to medium term, including the stabilisation of the foreign exchange market, the moderation of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) prices, and the federal government’s efforts to improve security in food-producing areas.

The Committee emphasised the need for continued collaboration between monetary and fiscal authorities to maintain and build upon these gains.

Additionally, the MPC acknowledged improvements in the external sector, with the convergence of exchange rates between the Nigeria Foreign Exchange Market (NFEM) and Bureau de Change (BDC) operators.

The Committee commended CBN’s recent measures, such as the Electronic Foreign Exchange Matching System and the Nigeria Foreign Exchange Code, aimed at enhancing transparency and credibility in the forex market.

The MPC expressed confidence that recent monetary and fiscal policy measures would attract increased foreign direct investment, portfolio inflows, and diaspora remittances as investor confidence grows.

The Committee also assured of its commitment to sustaining these measures to anchor inflation expectations, ease exchange rate pressures, deepen financial inclusion, and enhance the effectiveness of monetary policy transmission mechanisms.