Connect with us

Foreign

What next for Iran after President Raisi’s death?

Published

on

Ebrahim Raisi stood close to the pinnacle of power in the Islamic Republic and was widely tipped to rise to its very top.

A dramatic turn dealt him a different hand.

His death in a helicopter crash on Sunday has upended the growing speculation over who will eventually replace the 85-year-old Supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, whose own health has long been the focus of intense interest.

The tragic fate of Iran’s hardline president is not expected to disrupt the direction of Iranian policy or jolt the Islamic Republic in any consequential way.

Advertisement

But it will test a system where conservative hardliners now dominate all branches of power, both elected and unelected.

“The system will make a massive show of his death and stick to constitutional procedures to show functionality, while it seeks a new recruit who can maintain conservative unity and loyalty to Khamenei,” observes Dr Sanam Vakil, director of the Middle East and North Africa programme at the Chatham House think tank.

Raisi’s opponents will hail the exit of a former prosecutor accused of a decisive role in the mass execution of political prisoners in the 1980s which he denied; they will hope the end of his rule hastens the end of this regime.

For Iran’s ruling conservatives, the state funeral will be an occasion freighted with emotion; it will also be an opportunity to start sending their signals of continuity.

Advertisement

They know the world is watching.

“For 40 some years, in Western narratives, Iran was supposed to collapse and fall apart,” Professor Mohammed Marandi of Tehran University told the BBC.

“But somehow, miraculously, it’s still here and I predict it will still be here in years to come.”

Another critical position which must be filled is the seat held by this middle-ranking cleric on the Assembly of Experts, the body empowered to choose the new supreme leader, when that far more consequential transition comes.

Advertisement

“Raisi was a potential successor because, like Khamenei himself when he became supreme leader, he was relatively young, very loyal, an ideologue committed to the system who has name recognition,” says Dr Vakil of this opaque process of selection, where a number of names are seen to be in the running including the Supreme Leader’s son Mojtaba Khamenei.

Even before Raisi’s death was officially confirmed, the Ayatollah conveyed in a post on X that “the Iranian people should not worry, there will be no disruption in the country’s affairs.”

The more immediate political challenge will be staging early presidential elections.

Power has been transferred to Vice-President Mohammad Mokhber; new elections must be held within 50 days.

Advertisement

This appeal to voters will come just months after March’s parliamentary elections revealed a record low turnout in a country which once prided itself on strong enthusiastic participation in this exercise.

Recent elections, including the contest in 2021 which brought Raisi to the presidency, were also marked by the systematic exclusion of moderate and pro-reform rivals by the oversight body.

“Early presidential elections could provide Khamenei and the upper echelons of the state with an opportunity to reverse that trajectory to give voters a way back into the political process,” says Mohammad Ali Shabani, editor of London-based news website Amwaj.media.

“But, unfortunately, so far we have seen no indications of the state being ready and willing to take such a step.”

Advertisement

But, even within Raisi’s ranks, there appears to be no obvious successor.

“There are different camps within this conservative group, including individuals who are more hardline and others regarded as more pragmatic,” points out Hamidreza Azizi, a visiting fellow at SWP, the Berlin-based think tank.

He believes this will intensify the current jockeying for position within the new parliament and at local levels.

Whoever assumes Raisi’s mantle inherits a forbidding agenda and limited levers of power.

Advertisement

Ultimate decision-making authority in the Islamic Republic lies with the Supreme Leader.

Foreign policy, especially in the region, is the preserve of the Islamic Revolution Guard Corps (IRGC) who wield growing power.

The president didn’t call the shots months ago when Iran confronted unprecedented tensions with its arch-enemy Israel over the devastating Israel Gaza war.

It triggered a dangerous tit-for-tat and set alarm bells ringing in many capitals, most of all Tehran, over the potential for an even riskier escalatory spiral.

Advertisement

But as he presided over day-to-day business, Iranians struggled to cope with deepening financial hardship linked to crippling international sanctions as well as mismanagement and corruption.

Inflation soared to more than 40%; the rial currency plunged in value.

On his watch, the Islamic Republic was also shaken by an extraordinary wave of protests sparked by the death in custody in September 2022 of 22-year-old Mahsa Amini who was detained by morality police for allegedly violating Iran’s strict dress code.

Weeks before the unrest, Raisi had ordered a tightening of Iran’s “hijab and chastity law” which obligated women to behave and dress modestly including wearing a headscarf.

Advertisement

Iran to ‘deal decisively’ with mounting protests
But the protests spearheaded by a young generation of women, lashing out against a raft of restrictions imposed on their lives, mainly focused their fury on the real sources of power, the Supreme Leader and the system itself.

Human rights groups say hundreds were killed in the crackdown and thousands detained.

“Having been elected with the lowest recorded turnout in presidential elections in Iranian history, Raisi did not have the popular mandate of his predecessor Rouhani,“ says Shabani in reference to the reformist leader Hassan Rouhani whose initial popularity was partly fuelled by the 2015 landmark nuclear deal which fell apart when President Trump unilaterally pulled the US out three years later.

Indirect talks between President Biden’s administration and Raisi’s team made little progress.

Advertisement

“He avoided much of the ire which was directed at Rouhani by opponents of the Islamic Republic, partly because he was simply seen as less influential and effectual,” explains Shabani.

The helicopter crash also took the life of Iran’s Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian who played an active role in trying to present Tehran’s case to the world and find ways to ease the punishing impact of sanctions.

During the urgent diplomacy around the Israel-Gaza war, he was the voice on the phone and the face at meetings with Iran’s allies, as well as with Arab and Western foreign ministers anxious to calm and contain tensions.

“He was a useful channel to pass messages,” commented a senior Western diplomatic source. “But it tended to be quite formulaic since power did not lie in the foreign ministry.”

Advertisement

“The sudden death of a president is normally a consequential event but, despite being seen as a potential Supreme Leader, he lacked political support and any clear political vision,” maintains analyst Esfandyar Batmanghelidj, CEO of the Bourse and Bazaar think tank. “But the political operators who got him elected will adjust and advance without him.”

Continue Reading
Advertisement
Click to comment

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Foreign

Myanmar Quake Victim Rescued After 5 Days

Published

on

By

Rescuers on Wednesday pulled a man alive from the rubble five days after Myanmar’s devastating earthquake, as calls grew for the junta to allow more aid in and halt attacks on rebels.

The shallow 7.7-magnitude earthquake on Friday flattened buildings across Myanmar, killing more than 2,700 people and making thousands more homeless.

Several leading armed groups fighting the government have suspended hostilities during the quake recovery, but junta chief Min Aung Hlaing said military operations would continue — despite international criticism of multiple reported air strikes.

UN agencies, rights groups and foreign governments have urged all sides in Myanmar’s civil war to stop fighting and focus on helping those affected by the quake, the biggest to hit the country in decades.

Advertisement

Hopes of finding more survivors are fading, but there was a moment of joy on Wednesday as a man was pulled alive from the ruins of a hotel in the capital Naypyidaw.

The 26-year-old hotel worker was extracted by a joint Myanmar-Turkish team shortly after midnight, the fire service and junta said.

Dazed and dusty but conscious, the man was pulled through a hole in the rubble and put on a stretcher, video posted on Facebook by the Myanmar Fire Services Department showed.

Call for peace
Min Aung Hlaing said Tuesday that the death toll had risen to 2,719, with more than 4,500 injured and 441 still missing.

Advertisement

But with patchy communication and infrastructure delaying efforts to gather information and deliver aid, the full scale of the disaster has yet to become clear, and the toll is likely to rise.

The World Health Organization (WHO) reported severe damage in the city of Sagaing, citing local rescuers saying one in three houses there have collapsed.

Healthcare facilities, damaged by the quake and with limited capacity, are “overwhelmed by a large number of patients”, while supplies of food, water and medicine are running low, WHO said in an update.

Sagaing has seen some of the heaviest fighting in Myanmar’s civil war, and AFP journalists have not been able to reach the area.

Advertisement

Relief groups say the overall quake response has been hindered by continued fighting between the junta and the complex patchwork of armed groups opposed to its rule, which began in a 2021 coup.

Julie Bishop, the UN special envoy on Myanmar, called on all sides to “focus their efforts on the protection of civilians, including aid workers, and the delivery of life-saving assistance”.

Even before Friday’s earthquake, 3.5 million people were displaced by the fighting, many of them at risk of hunger, according to the United Nations.

Late Tuesday, an alliance of three of Myanmar’s most powerful ethnic minority armed groups announced a one-month pause in hostilities to support humanitarian efforts in response to the quake.

Advertisement

The announcement by the Three Brotherhood Alliance followed a separate partial ceasefire called by the People’s Defence Force — civilian groups that took up arms after the coup to fight junta rule.

But there have been multiple reports of junta air strikes against rebel groups since the quake.

“We are aware that some ethnic armed groups are currently not engaged in combat, but are organising and training to carry out attacks,” said Min Aung Hlaing, mentioning sabotage against the electricity supply.

“Since such activities constitute attacks, the Tatmadaw (armed forces) will continue to carry out necessary defensive activities,” he said in a statement late Tuesday.

Advertisement

But the UN special rapporteur on human rights in Myanmar, Tom Andrews, rejected the junta’s characterisation of its operations.

“Senior General Min Aung Hlaing has described ongoing junta attacks in the midst of Myanmar’s suffering as ‘necessary protective measures’,” he wrote on X.

“They are neither necessary nor protective. They are outrageous and should be condemned in the strongest possible terms by world leaders.”

Rescue teams work to save residents trapped under the rubble of the destroyed Sky Villa Condominium development in Mandalay on March 29, 2025, a day after an earthquake struck central Myanmar. More than 90 people could be trapped inside the crushed remains of an apartment block in Mandalay in central Myanmar destroyed by a devastating earthquake, a Red Cross official told AFP on March 29 as rescuers worked to free the victims. (Photo by Sai Aung MAIN / AFP)

Advertisement

Thailand toll rises
Australia’s government decried the reported air strikes saying they “exacerbated the suffering of the people”.

“We condemn these acts and call on the military regime to immediately cease military operations and allow full humanitarian access to affected areas,” Foreign Minister Penny Wong said.

Amnesty International said “inhumane” military attacks were significantly complicating earthquake relief efforts in Myanmar.

“You cannot ask for aid with one hand and bomb with the other,” said the group’s Myanmar researcher Joe Freeman.

Advertisement

Hundreds of kilometres away, in the Thai capital Bangkok, workers continued to scour through the rubble of a collapsed 30-storey skyscraper.

The structure had been under construction when the earthquake hit and its crash buried dozens of builders — few of whom have come out alive.

The death toll at the site has risen to 22, with more than 70 still believed trapped in the rubble.

AFP

Advertisement
Continue Reading

Foreign

Badenoch cautions UK to refrain from retaliating if Trump imposes tariffs

Published

on

By

Kemi Badenoch has cautioned Britain against retaliating if Donald Trump imposes new tariffs on UK goods as part of his “liberation day” trade measures.

The Conservative leader stressed that import levies “just make everyone poorer” and urged Labour ministers to push for a “comprehensive” trade deal.

Despite efforts by Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer and Business Secretary Jonathan Reynolds to secure an exemption, UK goods are expected to be hit alongside other global imports.

Badenoch emphasised the need for a deal covering key industries like manufacturing, particularly steel and automotive, warning that tariffs would “severely cripple” these sectors.

Advertisement

“Some people will want us to have trade retaliation, that just makes everyone poorer,” she told LBC. “This is a time for significant diplomacy… the people who will suffer aren’t just our exporters but also the American consumer.”

She dismissed suggestions that the UK should distance itself from the US due to Trump’s policies, stating,

“My view is that we need to stick closely to the US, they are an ally.

“We do not want a world where Nato is fragmented, that is very bad for our national security.

Advertisement

“We need to do what is in our national interest; where we disagree we should say so and I don’t mind people saying where they disagree.

“But I do have a problem with people just criticising for the sake of it when they actually haven’t got a concrete example of what it is that they are talking about in terms of policy. They are expressing their personal views about an individual.

“I haven’t banned anyone from doing so but I don’t think it is right because … having people from another country endlessly criticise your government in the open is not helpful.”

Trump has already announced a 25% import tax on foreign cars, dealing a major blow to the UK auto industry, which exported over 101,000 units worth £7.6 billion to the US last year.

Advertisement

Additionally, new tariffs—potentially including a 20% tax—are set to take effect on April 2, targeting UK products in response to VAT rules Trump views as unfair.

These levies could disrupt the UK’s economic plans, coming shortly after Chancellor Rachel Reeves’ budget cuts aimed at stabilizing public finances.

Continue Reading

Foreign

Journalists rally against White House’s decision to modify allocation of seats in briefing room

Published

on

By

The White House said Monday it is “seriously considering” taking control of deciding which journalists get seats in the famed briefing room, in the latest bid by President Donald Trump’s administration to exert power over the media.

The 49 spots in the press room, where spokespeople, officials and occasionally the president take the podium, have long been allocated by the non-partisan group of independent journalists, the White House Correspondents Association.

White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt accused the WHCA of trying to maintain a “monetized monopoly over the briefing room.”

“As for switching up seating in the briefing room, it’s something we are seriously considering,” she told Fox News.

Advertisement

“The briefing room is part of the People’s House, it belongs to the American people. It does not belong to elitist journalists here in Washington DC.”

News outlet Axios reported earlier that the White House wanted to take control of the seating chart to give more prime front-of-room spots to new media, and move some legacy outlets further back.

The WHCA, of which AFP is a member, opposed the “wrong-headed” move.

“The reason the White House wants control of the briefing room is the same reason they took control of the pool: to exert pressure on journalists over coverage they disagree with,” WHCA President Eugene Daniels said in a statement.

Advertisement

The WHCA and the White House both said they had tried to broker a meeting on the issue.

It is the latest effort by the White House to shape who covers Trump after taking control from the WHCA in February of the “pool” that covers the president in the Oval Office and when he travels on Air Force One.

The White House has added access to the pool for new and in several cases openly pro-Trump media, while reducing access to mainstream organisations.

It also continues to bar the Associated Press news agency from almost all presidential events as it refuses to refer to the Gulf of Mexico as the “Gulf of America,” the name newly decreed by Trump.

Advertisement

AFP

Continue Reading

Trending

Copyright © 2024 Naija Blitz News