Foreign
What next for Iran after President Raisi’s death?
Ebrahim Raisi stood close to the pinnacle of power in the Islamic Republic and was widely tipped to rise to its very top.
A dramatic turn dealt him a different hand.
His death in a helicopter crash on Sunday has upended the growing speculation over who will eventually replace the 85-year-old Supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, whose own health has long been the focus of intense interest.
The tragic fate of Iran’s hardline president is not expected to disrupt the direction of Iranian policy or jolt the Islamic Republic in any consequential way.
But it will test a system where conservative hardliners now dominate all branches of power, both elected and unelected.
“The system will make a massive show of his death and stick to constitutional procedures to show functionality, while it seeks a new recruit who can maintain conservative unity and loyalty to Khamenei,” observes Dr Sanam Vakil, director of the Middle East and North Africa programme at the Chatham House think tank.
Raisi’s opponents will hail the exit of a former prosecutor accused of a decisive role in the mass execution of political prisoners in the 1980s which he denied; they will hope the end of his rule hastens the end of this regime.
For Iran’s ruling conservatives, the state funeral will be an occasion freighted with emotion; it will also be an opportunity to start sending their signals of continuity.
They know the world is watching.
“For 40 some years, in Western narratives, Iran was supposed to collapse and fall apart,” Professor Mohammed Marandi of Tehran University told the BBC.
“But somehow, miraculously, it’s still here and I predict it will still be here in years to come.”
Another critical position which must be filled is the seat held by this middle-ranking cleric on the Assembly of Experts, the body empowered to choose the new supreme leader, when that far more consequential transition comes.
“Raisi was a potential successor because, like Khamenei himself when he became supreme leader, he was relatively young, very loyal, an ideologue committed to the system who has name recognition,” says Dr Vakil of this opaque process of selection, where a number of names are seen to be in the running including the Supreme Leader’s son Mojtaba Khamenei.
Even before Raisi’s death was officially confirmed, the Ayatollah conveyed in a post on X that “the Iranian people should not worry, there will be no disruption in the country’s affairs.”
The more immediate political challenge will be staging early presidential elections.
Power has been transferred to Vice-President Mohammad Mokhber; new elections must be held within 50 days.
This appeal to voters will come just months after March’s parliamentary elections revealed a record low turnout in a country which once prided itself on strong enthusiastic participation in this exercise.
Recent elections, including the contest in 2021 which brought Raisi to the presidency, were also marked by the systematic exclusion of moderate and pro-reform rivals by the oversight body.
“Early presidential elections could provide Khamenei and the upper echelons of the state with an opportunity to reverse that trajectory to give voters a way back into the political process,” says Mohammad Ali Shabani, editor of London-based news website Amwaj.media.
“But, unfortunately, so far we have seen no indications of the state being ready and willing to take such a step.”
But, even within Raisi’s ranks, there appears to be no obvious successor.
“There are different camps within this conservative group, including individuals who are more hardline and others regarded as more pragmatic,” points out Hamidreza Azizi, a visiting fellow at SWP, the Berlin-based think tank.
He believes this will intensify the current jockeying for position within the new parliament and at local levels.
Whoever assumes Raisi’s mantle inherits a forbidding agenda and limited levers of power.
Ultimate decision-making authority in the Islamic Republic lies with the Supreme Leader.
Foreign policy, especially in the region, is the preserve of the Islamic Revolution Guard Corps (IRGC) who wield growing power.
The president didn’t call the shots months ago when Iran confronted unprecedented tensions with its arch-enemy Israel over the devastating Israel Gaza war.
It triggered a dangerous tit-for-tat and set alarm bells ringing in many capitals, most of all Tehran, over the potential for an even riskier escalatory spiral.
But as he presided over day-to-day business, Iranians struggled to cope with deepening financial hardship linked to crippling international sanctions as well as mismanagement and corruption.
Inflation soared to more than 40%; the rial currency plunged in value.
On his watch, the Islamic Republic was also shaken by an extraordinary wave of protests sparked by the death in custody in September 2022 of 22-year-old Mahsa Amini who was detained by morality police for allegedly violating Iran’s strict dress code.
Weeks before the unrest, Raisi had ordered a tightening of Iran’s “hijab and chastity law” which obligated women to behave and dress modestly including wearing a headscarf.
Iran to ‘deal decisively’ with mounting protests
But the protests spearheaded by a young generation of women, lashing out against a raft of restrictions imposed on their lives, mainly focused their fury on the real sources of power, the Supreme Leader and the system itself.
Human rights groups say hundreds were killed in the crackdown and thousands detained.
“Having been elected with the lowest recorded turnout in presidential elections in Iranian history, Raisi did not have the popular mandate of his predecessor Rouhani,“ says Shabani in reference to the reformist leader Hassan Rouhani whose initial popularity was partly fuelled by the 2015 landmark nuclear deal which fell apart when President Trump unilaterally pulled the US out three years later.
Indirect talks between President Biden’s administration and Raisi’s team made little progress.
“He avoided much of the ire which was directed at Rouhani by opponents of the Islamic Republic, partly because he was simply seen as less influential and effectual,” explains Shabani.
The helicopter crash also took the life of Iran’s Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian who played an active role in trying to present Tehran’s case to the world and find ways to ease the punishing impact of sanctions.
During the urgent diplomacy around the Israel-Gaza war, he was the voice on the phone and the face at meetings with Iran’s allies, as well as with Arab and Western foreign ministers anxious to calm and contain tensions.
“He was a useful channel to pass messages,” commented a senior Western diplomatic source. “But it tended to be quite formulaic since power did not lie in the foreign ministry.”
“The sudden death of a president is normally a consequential event but, despite being seen as a potential Supreme Leader, he lacked political support and any clear political vision,” maintains analyst Esfandyar Batmanghelidj, CEO of the Bourse and Bazaar think tank. “But the political operators who got him elected will adjust and advance without him.”
Foreign
Gaza war: IDF confirms release of three hostages, identities revealed
The Israeli Defence Forces, IDF, have confirmed the release of three hostages by Hamas terrorists.
Their release was part of the ceasefire agreement mediated between both warring parties.
In a statement on Sunday evening, the IDF said the released hostages would be reunited with their families.
The IDF said: “The three released hostages have arrived at the initial reception point in southern Israel, where they will be reunited with their mothers.
“IDF officers from the Manpower Directorate and IDF medical officials are accompanying the released hostages during an initial medical assessment.
“IDF representatives are accompanying their families at the hospital and updating them with the latest available information.”
The three freed Israeli hostages are part of the first group of 33 to be released.
Those released are Romi Gonen, Doron Steinbrecher, and Emily Damari.
In exchange, 90 Palestinian prisoners and detainees will also be released from Israeli prisons.
Foreign
Trump names Gibson, Stallone and Voight Hollywood ambassadors
US President-elect Donald Trump has appointed three film stars to be special ambassadors tasked with promoting business opportunities in Hollywood.
“It is my honor to announce Jon Voight, Mel Gibson, and Sylvester Stallone, to be Special Ambassadors to a great but very troubled place, Hollywood, California,” Trump wrote on his Truth Social platform.
“They will serve as Special Envoys to me for the purpose of bringing Hollywood, which has lost much business over the last four years to Foreign Countries, BACK—BIGGER, BETTER, AND STRONGER THAN EVER BEFORE!”
All three celebrity figures have recently been associated with Trump and his election campaign. It is unclear what their roles will involve.
In a statement, Gibson, 69, said he received the news “at the same time as all of you and was just as surprised.
“Nevertheless, I heed the call. My duty as a citizen is to give and help and insight I can.”
Gibson, who recently lost his home in the Los Angeles wildfires, added: “Any chance the position comes with an Ambassador’s residence?”
The Braveheart and Mad Max star had publicly endorsed Trump in a video released shortly before November’s election. He also criticised Vice-President Kamala Harris, who was Trump’s Democratic rival in the presidential race.
Stallone, 78, best known for playing the titular character in the Rocky franchise, introduced Trump at Mar-a-Lago for his post-election victory speech.
He compared the president-elect to America’s first leader, calling him the “second George Washington”.
“Without him, you can imagine what the world would look like?” he said.
He added that Washington – who was president from 1789 to 1797 – didn’t realise he would change the world when he defended his country.
Voight, 86, who starred in Midnight Cowboy and Pearl Harbor, is a long-time supporter of Trump and has called him the greatest president since Abraham Lincoln.
Here’s what to know about Donald Trump’s inauguration
It’s been a difficult few years for Hollywood with the Covid pandemic, multiple labour strikes, and competition with streaming services.
Lucas Shaw, a long-time Hollywood analyst, does not believe the new envoys can do much to help the struggling industry.
“He [Trump] sees them as allies, and he can use them to talk about change in Hollywood, but I don’t imagine you’re going to have John Voight and Sylvester Stallone and Mel Gibson trying to figure out how to restore the cable bundle, or make streaming more profitable, or figure out how to make China import more Hollywood movies,” he said.
Trump’s relationship with Hollywood has been fraught with tension and controversy.
The entertainment industry was partly responsible for bringing Trump back to prominence with his reality show, The Apprentice, as it bolstered his image as a savvy businessman, Mr Shaw told the BBC.
Trump’s ascent to the White House changed the dynamic, putting him at odds with the politics of much of the industry.
“Hollywood tends to donate to and support Democrats more than Republicans, and so it serves as an effective industry for him to criticise,” said Mr Shaw.
It is also easy to “portray as these rich fat cats who don’t have your interests in mind”.
In August 2019, during his first term, Trump criticised the film industry as “racist” and accused it of creating “very dangerous” movies.
His comments stemmed from controversy ahead of the release of the film The Hunt, an action-horror about a group of elites who hunt people for sport.
Speaking outside the White House, he said that Hollywood was doing a “tremendous disservice to the country” by producing content that incites violence and division.
The following year, Trump took aim at the Academy Awards for selecting South Korean film Parasite as best picture.
He questioned how a foreign film could win the top honour and suggested it was undeserving.
Trump’s stance on immigration, climate change, and social justice has drawn sharp criticism from major celebrities, and he has faced the ire of stars like Meryl Streep and Robert De Niro.
Some of his policies have also targeted Hollywood, including a push to end tax breaks for film production in certain states.
The announcement of his special ambassadors for Hollywood comes just four days before his inauguration in Washington DC on 20 January.
Los Angeles – the heart of the entertainment industry – is currently struggling to contain deadly wildfires that have destroyed thousands of homes and buildings and left many businesses struggling to recover.
Damages are estimated at approximately $250bn (£204bn).
Foreign
Biden sets record, grants clemency to 2,500 people
By Francesca Hangeior.
President Joe Biden on Friday commuted the sentences of nearly 2,500 people convicted of non-violent drug offences in what the White House called the largest single-day act of clemency in US history.
Those whose sentences were commuted were serving “disproportionately long sentences” compared to what they would receive today, Biden said in a statement.
He called the move “an important step toward righting historic wrongs, correcting sentencing disparities, and providing deserving individuals the opportunity to return to their families.”
“With this action, I have now issued more individual pardons and commutations than any president in US history,” Biden said, adding that he may issue further commutations or pardons before he hands over power to President-elect Donald Trump on Monday.
Biden commuted the sentences of nearly 1,500 people and pardoned 39 others last month.
Among those pardoned in December was Biden’s son Hunter, who was facing a possible prison sentence after being convicted of gun and tax crimes.
Biden has meanwhile reportedly been debating whether to issue blanket pardons for some allies and former officials amid fears they could be targeted for what Trump has previously called “retribution.”
In December, Biden also commuted the death sentences of 37 of the 40 inmates on federal death row.
Three men were excluded from the move: one of the 2013 Boston Marathon bombers, a gunman who murdered 11 Jewish worshippers in 2018 and a white supremacist who killed nine Black churchgoers in 2015.
Trump has indicated that he will resume federal executions, which were paused while Biden was in office.
-
News16 hours ago
Banditry: Bandit Leader Bello Turji Reportedly On the Run, Son Wasted Amid Military Offensive
-
Metro16 hours ago
Father And Daughter b3headed Over Land Dispute In Delta Community
-
News24 hours ago
SAD! Two Judges shot dead in Court as attacker takes own life
-
Politics16 hours ago
Edo Guber Election Petition Tribunal to Reconvene Tomorrow
-
News24 hours ago
Catholic church suspends priest over alleged secret marriage in US
-
News12 hours ago
Reps Direct Ministry of Health to Provide Detailed Report on Nutrition Interventions Amid Malnutrition Crisis
-
News16 hours ago
Hajj: CSO lauds NAHCON’s selection of new Saudi-based service provider
-
News6 hours ago
Alleged medical trip: Wike reacts, says I’m fit and very healthy