Foreign
If Putin wins, expect the worst genocide since the Holocaust

Today, Karolina Hird of the Institute of the Study of War in Washington DC considers the price for ordinary Ukrainians.
Over 800 days into Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, it is easy to see the war as merely lines and colour-coding on a map. While the lines and the military movements they represent matter, those abstractions obscure the human realities behind those lines.
To be clear from the start: Russia is actively, undeniably carrying out a genocide to destroy Ukrainian identity and independence. It does this by utilising ethnic cleansing campaigns, sexual violence, and the mass deportation of Ukrainian children as part of a “forced Russification” effort. I have been following this from Washington ever since the war began.
As such, if Russia wins, the worst genocide on European soil since the Holocaust is almost guaranteed.
The Kremlin has loudly proclaimed its intent to destroy Ukraine as a state and a nation. Russian President Vladimir Putin’s 2021 essay “On the historical unity of Russians and Ukrainians,” called Ukrainians a confused people, unjustly and forcibly torn away from Russia by nefarious external forces. The Kremlin-controlled Russian Orthodox Church frequently espouses the “trinity doctrine,” the idea that Ukrainians (and Belarusians) belong to the Russian “nation” and must be “reunified.”
Russian politicians and pundits frequently call Ukraine an “artificial concept” and a “fake country” that does not deserve to exist. Russia has adopted a whole-of-government approach to build the narrative that Ukraine and Ukrainians have no right to exist as a sovereign people in a sovereign state.
Given these officially stated aims, are the genocidal actions Russia has taken to pursue them any wonder? The Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide defines genocide as acts committed “with intent to destroy, in whole or in part” a specific group.
The destruction need not be accomplished physically – actions taken to destroy a group’s identity without killing all members of the group also constitute genocide. The Russian genocidal project includes horrific acts of violence, to be sure, including summary executions, sexual assaults, arbitrary detentions, and torture. It includes the forcible deportation of children from Ukraine to Russia, which the Genocide Convention explicitly specifies also constitutes genocide.
The deportation of Ukrainian children is a key component of Russia’s genocidal project – one that would only be extrapolated if Russia were to win the war and the rest of the country were seized by force. The Ukrainian government has verified the deportation of 19,546 Ukrainian children as of April 29, 2024. The true number is likely much, much higher considering that Ukrainian officials can only verify the deportation of children who have someone to vouch for their identity, leaving orphans and children without guardians unaccounted for.
The Kremlin has facilitated and celebrated the deportation of children to Russia, claiming it offers children an opportunity to rest and rehabilitate after living in a war zone (which Russia created by invading Ukraine). These children are subject to Kremlin-approved re-education programmes along Kremlin-accepted social, linguistic, and cultural lines and sometimes forced into military training.
Russian authorities have deported children to “rest” and “relaxation” camps throughout Russia, one of which in Russia’s Primorsky Krai is closer to Alaska than to Ukraine. High-ranking Kremlin officials, including Putin’s Commissioner on Children’s Rights Maria Lvova-Belova, have personally adopted deported Ukrainian children. She now has an arrest warrant, issued by the International Criminal Court (ICC).
Tens of thousands of Ukrainian young people are growing up under Russian military occupation, forcing them to abandon their language, culture, and history as the Kremlin seeks to destroy “in whole or in part” Ukrainian identity. This would become an entire generation were Moscow to subjugate Ukraine. Those already living under Russian occupation suffer daily efforts by Russian occupation authorities to strip them of their Ukrainian identity.
Russian authorities co-opted the school system in occupied Ukraine under the euphemism of bringing it up to the “Russian standard”: teaching only the Kremlin-approved version of Russian history in which Ukraine has no independent identity and depriving children of access to Ukrainian-language education. Russian occupation authorities also use schools to militarise children, instilling in them Russian “military-patriotic ideals” and establishing a direct pipeline into Russian military–affiliated organisations to facilitate their future recruitment into the Russian military to fight against their compatriots.
The thread of destruction and eradication runs through daily life in occupied Ukraine. Russian occupation officials have discussed forcibly deporting or summarily executing civilians who display characteristics deemed to be pro-Ukrainian or anti-Russian. Russian administrators use the threat of withholding access to basic goods and services to coerce Ukrainians to give up their Ukrainian passports for Russian ones, permanently changing the Ukrainian spelling of their names to the Russian version. Russian economic “enrichment” and infrastructure “development” projects cripple the ability of occupied areas to exercise economic self-sufficiency, generating devastating dependencies on the Russian federal government and driving a wedge between Kyiv and occupied territories.
Again, this constitutes genocidal behaviour, even when it is not exterminating people.
That said, Russia’s efforts to destroy Ukraine include ethnically-cleansing occupied Ukraine by replacing Ukrainians with Russian citizens. Russian officials claim that Russia has “accepted” over 4.8 million Ukrainians, including 700,000 children, since the beginning of the war.
There is no way to verify this number, but it emphasises the scale of movement to Russia from Ukraine since 2022, all of which occurred in the coercive context of Russian military occupation. The Kremlin is repopulating occupied Ukraine with Russian citizens to fundamentally alter its demographics and complicate future reintegration efforts. Based on examples of similar ethnic cleansing in the past, many will have inevitably died as a consequence. And that is before one even considers the blatant executions of innocent civilians by Russian soldiers, or the deliberate targeting of civilian population areas.
International legal procedure is set up to deal with atrocities after they happen. This is why Russian war crimes in Bucha, Izyum, Kherson City, and other liberated settlements have received widespread international attention and condemnation, and deservedly so. This is why the ICC has issued arrest warrants for Putin and Lvova-Belova, as their crime of facilitating the deportation of children is visible and evident.
The international humanitarian community is less effective, however, at addressing what happens daily behind the frontlines. In many cases, Russia’s genocidal project in Ukraine is banal, mundane, and hard to track and prove. But every aspect of Russia’s occupation of Ukraine is deliberate and flows from Putin’s initial justification for the invasion. It is meant to make real the Kremlin lie that Ukraine has no right to exist and that there is no such thing as a Ukrainian people.
Ukraine is fighting a war for the survival of the Ukrainian people. Russia’s genocidal project is the purpose of Russia’s military operations, and Ukraine’s supporters must not separate the two. Should Ukraine fall to Russia on the battlefield, the rest of its people will fall victim to the genocidal project Russia is conducting in the lands it already controls, which “only” constitutes about 20 per cent of the country’s legal territory. Imagine how many millions would be victims of this abhorrent behaviour if it reaches 30 per cent, 40 per cent, or even 100 per cent.
Indeed, many military experts would argue that Nazi-style tactics would be the only way to quell a population so vehemently opposed to Russia’s control. We would see horrors unfold daily.
We must face this reality squarely and stop blithely talking about offering “territorial” concessions to “stop the fighting” without forcing ourselves to confront the horrors that such concessions will inflict on the people living in those lands.
Putin’s invasion was never about seizing limited bits of land. It was always about destroying a people. Ukraine’s supporters must therefore recommit themselves to the project of saving this people and showing that they will resist and defeat aggression and genocide on this scale.
Karolina Hird is Russia Deputy Team Lead and Analyst at the Institute for the Study of War in Washington DC.
She has contributed to the Telegraph’s daily podcast ‘Ukraine: The Latest’, your go-to source for all the latest analysis, live reaction and correspondents reporting on the ground. With over 85 million downloads, it is considered the most trusted daily source of war news on both sides of the Atlantic.
You can listen to one of her extended interviews on Russian war crimes here.
Foreign
Myanmar Quake Victim Rescued After 5 Days

Rescuers on Wednesday pulled a man alive from the rubble five days after Myanmar’s devastating earthquake, as calls grew for the junta to allow more aid in and halt attacks on rebels.
The shallow 7.7-magnitude earthquake on Friday flattened buildings across Myanmar, killing more than 2,700 people and making thousands more homeless.
Several leading armed groups fighting the government have suspended hostilities during the quake recovery, but junta chief Min Aung Hlaing said military operations would continue — despite international criticism of multiple reported air strikes.
UN agencies, rights groups and foreign governments have urged all sides in Myanmar’s civil war to stop fighting and focus on helping those affected by the quake, the biggest to hit the country in decades.
Hopes of finding more survivors are fading, but there was a moment of joy on Wednesday as a man was pulled alive from the ruins of a hotel in the capital Naypyidaw.
The 26-year-old hotel worker was extracted by a joint Myanmar-Turkish team shortly after midnight, the fire service and junta said.
Dazed and dusty but conscious, the man was pulled through a hole in the rubble and put on a stretcher, video posted on Facebook by the Myanmar Fire Services Department showed.
Call for peace
Min Aung Hlaing said Tuesday that the death toll had risen to 2,719, with more than 4,500 injured and 441 still missing.
But with patchy communication and infrastructure delaying efforts to gather information and deliver aid, the full scale of the disaster has yet to become clear, and the toll is likely to rise.
The World Health Organization (WHO) reported severe damage in the city of Sagaing, citing local rescuers saying one in three houses there have collapsed.
Healthcare facilities, damaged by the quake and with limited capacity, are “overwhelmed by a large number of patients”, while supplies of food, water and medicine are running low, WHO said in an update.
Sagaing has seen some of the heaviest fighting in Myanmar’s civil war, and AFP journalists have not been able to reach the area.
Relief groups say the overall quake response has been hindered by continued fighting between the junta and the complex patchwork of armed groups opposed to its rule, which began in a 2021 coup.
Julie Bishop, the UN special envoy on Myanmar, called on all sides to “focus their efforts on the protection of civilians, including aid workers, and the delivery of life-saving assistance”.
Even before Friday’s earthquake, 3.5 million people were displaced by the fighting, many of them at risk of hunger, according to the United Nations.
Late Tuesday, an alliance of three of Myanmar’s most powerful ethnic minority armed groups announced a one-month pause in hostilities to support humanitarian efforts in response to the quake.
The announcement by the Three Brotherhood Alliance followed a separate partial ceasefire called by the People’s Defence Force — civilian groups that took up arms after the coup to fight junta rule.
But there have been multiple reports of junta air strikes against rebel groups since the quake.
“We are aware that some ethnic armed groups are currently not engaged in combat, but are organising and training to carry out attacks,” said Min Aung Hlaing, mentioning sabotage against the electricity supply.
“Since such activities constitute attacks, the Tatmadaw (armed forces) will continue to carry out necessary defensive activities,” he said in a statement late Tuesday.
But the UN special rapporteur on human rights in Myanmar, Tom Andrews, rejected the junta’s characterisation of its operations.
“Senior General Min Aung Hlaing has described ongoing junta attacks in the midst of Myanmar’s suffering as ‘necessary protective measures’,” he wrote on X.
“They are neither necessary nor protective. They are outrageous and should be condemned in the strongest possible terms by world leaders.”
Rescue teams work to save residents trapped under the rubble of the destroyed Sky Villa Condominium development in Mandalay on March 29, 2025, a day after an earthquake struck central Myanmar. More than 90 people could be trapped inside the crushed remains of an apartment block in Mandalay in central Myanmar destroyed by a devastating earthquake, a Red Cross official told AFP on March 29 as rescuers worked to free the victims. (Photo by Sai Aung MAIN / AFP)
Thailand toll rises
Australia’s government decried the reported air strikes saying they “exacerbated the suffering of the people”.
“We condemn these acts and call on the military regime to immediately cease military operations and allow full humanitarian access to affected areas,” Foreign Minister Penny Wong said.
Amnesty International said “inhumane” military attacks were significantly complicating earthquake relief efforts in Myanmar.
“You cannot ask for aid with one hand and bomb with the other,” said the group’s Myanmar researcher Joe Freeman.
Hundreds of kilometres away, in the Thai capital Bangkok, workers continued to scour through the rubble of a collapsed 30-storey skyscraper.
The structure had been under construction when the earthquake hit and its crash buried dozens of builders — few of whom have come out alive.
The death toll at the site has risen to 22, with more than 70 still believed trapped in the rubble.
AFP
Foreign
Badenoch cautions UK to refrain from retaliating if Trump imposes tariffs

Kemi Badenoch has cautioned Britain against retaliating if Donald Trump imposes new tariffs on UK goods as part of his “liberation day” trade measures.
The Conservative leader stressed that import levies “just make everyone poorer” and urged Labour ministers to push for a “comprehensive” trade deal.
Despite efforts by Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer and Business Secretary Jonathan Reynolds to secure an exemption, UK goods are expected to be hit alongside other global imports.
Badenoch emphasised the need for a deal covering key industries like manufacturing, particularly steel and automotive, warning that tariffs would “severely cripple” these sectors.
“Some people will want us to have trade retaliation, that just makes everyone poorer,” she told LBC. “This is a time for significant diplomacy… the people who will suffer aren’t just our exporters but also the American consumer.”
She dismissed suggestions that the UK should distance itself from the US due to Trump’s policies, stating,
“My view is that we need to stick closely to the US, they are an ally.
“We do not want a world where Nato is fragmented, that is very bad for our national security.
“We need to do what is in our national interest; where we disagree we should say so and I don’t mind people saying where they disagree.
“But I do have a problem with people just criticising for the sake of it when they actually haven’t got a concrete example of what it is that they are talking about in terms of policy. They are expressing their personal views about an individual.
“I haven’t banned anyone from doing so but I don’t think it is right because … having people from another country endlessly criticise your government in the open is not helpful.”
Trump has already announced a 25% import tax on foreign cars, dealing a major blow to the UK auto industry, which exported over 101,000 units worth £7.6 billion to the US last year.
Additionally, new tariffs—potentially including a 20% tax—are set to take effect on April 2, targeting UK products in response to VAT rules Trump views as unfair.
These levies could disrupt the UK’s economic plans, coming shortly after Chancellor Rachel Reeves’ budget cuts aimed at stabilizing public finances.
Foreign
Journalists rally against White House’s decision to modify allocation of seats in briefing room

The White House said Monday it is “seriously considering” taking control of deciding which journalists get seats in the famed briefing room, in the latest bid by President Donald Trump’s administration to exert power over the media.
The 49 spots in the press room, where spokespeople, officials and occasionally the president take the podium, have long been allocated by the non-partisan group of independent journalists, the White House Correspondents Association.
White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt accused the WHCA of trying to maintain a “monetized monopoly over the briefing room.”
“As for switching up seating in the briefing room, it’s something we are seriously considering,” she told Fox News.
“The briefing room is part of the People’s House, it belongs to the American people. It does not belong to elitist journalists here in Washington DC.”
News outlet Axios reported earlier that the White House wanted to take control of the seating chart to give more prime front-of-room spots to new media, and move some legacy outlets further back.
The WHCA, of which AFP is a member, opposed the “wrong-headed” move.
“The reason the White House wants control of the briefing room is the same reason they took control of the pool: to exert pressure on journalists over coverage they disagree with,” WHCA President Eugene Daniels said in a statement.
The WHCA and the White House both said they had tried to broker a meeting on the issue.
It is the latest effort by the White House to shape who covers Trump after taking control from the WHCA in February of the “pool” that covers the president in the Oval Office and when he travels on Air Force One.
The White House has added access to the pool for new and in several cases openly pro-Trump media, while reducing access to mainstream organisations.
It also continues to bar the Associated Press news agency from almost all presidential events as it refuses to refer to the Gulf of Mexico as the “Gulf of America,” the name newly decreed by Trump.
AFP
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