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Why India’s Modi failed to win outright majority

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Indian PM Narendra Modi has won a third consecutive term in a much tighter general election than anticipated.

His Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) looks set to fall short of a majority and is leading in the 543-seat parliament, below the required 272 seats. However its coalition partners have gained additional seats.

The results are a personal blow to Mr Modi, who has always secured majorities in elections as both chief minister of Gujarat state and India’s prime minister, and dominated the country’s politics for a decade.

The verdict marks a surprising revival for the Congress Party-led INDIA opposition alliance, defying earlier predictions of its decline, and sharply diverging from both exit polls and pre-election surveys.

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More than 640 million people voted in a marathon seven-week election, hailed as a “world record” by election authorities. Nearly half of the voters were women.

Many world leaders have crawled across the finishing line in their third term elections and Mr Modi is no exception. The BJP remains India’s single largest party by seats, and if Mr Modi secures a third term with his allies, the prime minister matches the record of Jawaharlal Nehru, India’s first premier.

But the significant loss of seats for his party – more than 50 – dims the allure of a third term, especially given Mr Modi’s campaign targeting 400 coalition seats, making anything less seem like an under-achievement.

This has led to jubilation in the Congress camp and some despair in BJP quarters. Despite the BJP emerging as the single largest party, the burden of hype and expectations has left many of their supporters disheartened.

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Mr Modi’s supporters believe securing a third term can be attributed to several factors: a record of stable governance, the appeal of continuity, efficient welfare programmes, and the perception that he has enhanced India’s global image.

To his Hindu nationalist base, Mr Modi delivered on key manifesto promises: revoking the autonomy of Indian-administered Kashmir, building the Ram temple in Ayodhya and implementing a controversial citizenship law. Many BJP-ruled states have implemented laws tightening regulations on interfaith marriages.

The BJP’s significant drop in seats may be linked to joblessness, rising prices, growing inequality and a controversial army recruitment reform, among other things. Mr Modi’s harsh and divisive campaign, particularly targeting Muslims, could also have alienated voters in some regions.

His ambitious slogan “Ab ki baar, 400 paar,” aiming for more than 400 seats for his NDA alliance, may have backfired, with such a massive majority raising fears of constitutional changes among the poor.

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Mr Modi’s party faced its largest setback in Uttar Pradesh (UP), a state larger than the United Kingdom and three times as populous. With 80 parliamentary seats, UP holds significant sway in national politics – many consider it the gateway to Delhi. Both Mr Modi and Rahul Gandhi hold seats there.

So what are the main takeaways of this election?

A dent of Brand Modi
Mr Modi’s popularity has been also attributed to his mastery of branding, transforming routine events into spectacles and astute messaging. A weak opposition and a largely friendly media also helped him build his brand.

The election results show that Brand Modi has lost some of its shine, indicating that even Mr Modi is susceptible to anti-incumbency. In other words, he is not as invincible as many of his supporters believed. This offers renewed hope to the opposition.

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A return to coalition politics
India has a history of chaotic coalition governments, although some in the early 1990s and 2000s played a significant role in implementing economic reforms.

If the BJP forms the government, it will be dependent on allies and will need to adopt a more consultative and deliberative approach.

This dependency makes it vulnerable to collapse if allies feel neglected. The party, once perceived as all-powerful, is now reliant on allies, unlike in 2014 and 2019.

A jolt to the dominant BJP
Mr Modi’s uninterrupted decade-long reign at the top has underscored India’s embrace of what some political scientists term the one-party dominant system.

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This has five key traits: a charismatic leader, unrivaled control over resources and communication, unmatched organisational machinery, and an opposition in disarray. Shrinking freedoms also characterise a one-party dominant system.

Mr Modi’s BJP is not the first party to dominate Indian politics. For many years after Independence the Congress ruled without a break. Tuesday’s result has restored India to what many consider “normal politics”, with a range of parties sharing and competing for power.

A resurgent opposition
The results will energise the much-criticised Congress-led opposition.

In February, the diverse coalition known as INDIA, short for Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance, faced turmoil when one of its key leaders, Nitish Kumar, exited – only to later rejoin the BJP.

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But led by Rahul Gandhi, the opposition ran a spirited campaign and narrowed the gap, in the face of a partisan media and despite fewer resources.

There is more hope for them ahead. The BJP holds about a third of India’s 4,000- plus state assembly seats and has lost to regional parties before. Over the next 14 months, five states are set for elections – all could be keenly contested.

With contests in Maharashtra, Jharkhand, and Haryana this year, the BJP could face substantial competition. Delhi’s upcoming election may pose challenges, while Bihar in October presents a regional hurdle.

So what could a potential third term for Mr Modi mean?

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India needs much more work and some healing.
The economy, fueled by government spending, is on the upswing. Yet inequality is rising. Private investment and consumption must increase, and the poor and the middle class will need more money in their pockets to spend more.

That will not happen if there are not enough jobs. In a country bristling with ambition and frustration, younger voters are likely to drift from the BJP – around two-fifths of India’s billion-plus people are under 25.

Mr Modi has drawn criticism for marginalising Muslims, India’s largest minority, who have borne the brunt of violence. His government faces accusations of stifling dissent, with leading opposition figures jailed on what they say are trumped-up charges.

But third terms have often proved to be rocky for many leaders, with unforeseen and unpredictable events blowing governments and their plans off course.

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Myanmar Quake Victim Rescued After 5 Days

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Rescuers on Wednesday pulled a man alive from the rubble five days after Myanmar’s devastating earthquake, as calls grew for the junta to allow more aid in and halt attacks on rebels.

The shallow 7.7-magnitude earthquake on Friday flattened buildings across Myanmar, killing more than 2,700 people and making thousands more homeless.

Several leading armed groups fighting the government have suspended hostilities during the quake recovery, but junta chief Min Aung Hlaing said military operations would continue — despite international criticism of multiple reported air strikes.

UN agencies, rights groups and foreign governments have urged all sides in Myanmar’s civil war to stop fighting and focus on helping those affected by the quake, the biggest to hit the country in decades.

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Hopes of finding more survivors are fading, but there was a moment of joy on Wednesday as a man was pulled alive from the ruins of a hotel in the capital Naypyidaw.

The 26-year-old hotel worker was extracted by a joint Myanmar-Turkish team shortly after midnight, the fire service and junta said.

Dazed and dusty but conscious, the man was pulled through a hole in the rubble and put on a stretcher, video posted on Facebook by the Myanmar Fire Services Department showed.

Call for peace
Min Aung Hlaing said Tuesday that the death toll had risen to 2,719, with more than 4,500 injured and 441 still missing.

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But with patchy communication and infrastructure delaying efforts to gather information and deliver aid, the full scale of the disaster has yet to become clear, and the toll is likely to rise.

The World Health Organization (WHO) reported severe damage in the city of Sagaing, citing local rescuers saying one in three houses there have collapsed.

Healthcare facilities, damaged by the quake and with limited capacity, are “overwhelmed by a large number of patients”, while supplies of food, water and medicine are running low, WHO said in an update.

Sagaing has seen some of the heaviest fighting in Myanmar’s civil war, and AFP journalists have not been able to reach the area.

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Relief groups say the overall quake response has been hindered by continued fighting between the junta and the complex patchwork of armed groups opposed to its rule, which began in a 2021 coup.

Julie Bishop, the UN special envoy on Myanmar, called on all sides to “focus their efforts on the protection of civilians, including aid workers, and the delivery of life-saving assistance”.

Even before Friday’s earthquake, 3.5 million people were displaced by the fighting, many of them at risk of hunger, according to the United Nations.

Late Tuesday, an alliance of three of Myanmar’s most powerful ethnic minority armed groups announced a one-month pause in hostilities to support humanitarian efforts in response to the quake.

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The announcement by the Three Brotherhood Alliance followed a separate partial ceasefire called by the People’s Defence Force — civilian groups that took up arms after the coup to fight junta rule.

But there have been multiple reports of junta air strikes against rebel groups since the quake.

“We are aware that some ethnic armed groups are currently not engaged in combat, but are organising and training to carry out attacks,” said Min Aung Hlaing, mentioning sabotage against the electricity supply.

“Since such activities constitute attacks, the Tatmadaw (armed forces) will continue to carry out necessary defensive activities,” he said in a statement late Tuesday.

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But the UN special rapporteur on human rights in Myanmar, Tom Andrews, rejected the junta’s characterisation of its operations.

“Senior General Min Aung Hlaing has described ongoing junta attacks in the midst of Myanmar’s suffering as ‘necessary protective measures’,” he wrote on X.

“They are neither necessary nor protective. They are outrageous and should be condemned in the strongest possible terms by world leaders.”

Rescue teams work to save residents trapped under the rubble of the destroyed Sky Villa Condominium development in Mandalay on March 29, 2025, a day after an earthquake struck central Myanmar. More than 90 people could be trapped inside the crushed remains of an apartment block in Mandalay in central Myanmar destroyed by a devastating earthquake, a Red Cross official told AFP on March 29 as rescuers worked to free the victims. (Photo by Sai Aung MAIN / AFP)

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Thailand toll rises
Australia’s government decried the reported air strikes saying they “exacerbated the suffering of the people”.

“We condemn these acts and call on the military regime to immediately cease military operations and allow full humanitarian access to affected areas,” Foreign Minister Penny Wong said.

Amnesty International said “inhumane” military attacks were significantly complicating earthquake relief efforts in Myanmar.

“You cannot ask for aid with one hand and bomb with the other,” said the group’s Myanmar researcher Joe Freeman.

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Hundreds of kilometres away, in the Thai capital Bangkok, workers continued to scour through the rubble of a collapsed 30-storey skyscraper.

The structure had been under construction when the earthquake hit and its crash buried dozens of builders — few of whom have come out alive.

The death toll at the site has risen to 22, with more than 70 still believed trapped in the rubble.

AFP

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Badenoch cautions UK to refrain from retaliating if Trump imposes tariffs

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Kemi Badenoch has cautioned Britain against retaliating if Donald Trump imposes new tariffs on UK goods as part of his “liberation day” trade measures.

The Conservative leader stressed that import levies “just make everyone poorer” and urged Labour ministers to push for a “comprehensive” trade deal.

Despite efforts by Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer and Business Secretary Jonathan Reynolds to secure an exemption, UK goods are expected to be hit alongside other global imports.

Badenoch emphasised the need for a deal covering key industries like manufacturing, particularly steel and automotive, warning that tariffs would “severely cripple” these sectors.

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“Some people will want us to have trade retaliation, that just makes everyone poorer,” she told LBC. “This is a time for significant diplomacy… the people who will suffer aren’t just our exporters but also the American consumer.”

She dismissed suggestions that the UK should distance itself from the US due to Trump’s policies, stating,

“My view is that we need to stick closely to the US, they are an ally.

“We do not want a world where Nato is fragmented, that is very bad for our national security.

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“We need to do what is in our national interest; where we disagree we should say so and I don’t mind people saying where they disagree.

“But I do have a problem with people just criticising for the sake of it when they actually haven’t got a concrete example of what it is that they are talking about in terms of policy. They are expressing their personal views about an individual.

“I haven’t banned anyone from doing so but I don’t think it is right because … having people from another country endlessly criticise your government in the open is not helpful.”

Trump has already announced a 25% import tax on foreign cars, dealing a major blow to the UK auto industry, which exported over 101,000 units worth £7.6 billion to the US last year.

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Additionally, new tariffs—potentially including a 20% tax—are set to take effect on April 2, targeting UK products in response to VAT rules Trump views as unfair.

These levies could disrupt the UK’s economic plans, coming shortly after Chancellor Rachel Reeves’ budget cuts aimed at stabilizing public finances.

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Journalists rally against White House’s decision to modify allocation of seats in briefing room

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The White House said Monday it is “seriously considering” taking control of deciding which journalists get seats in the famed briefing room, in the latest bid by President Donald Trump’s administration to exert power over the media.

The 49 spots in the press room, where spokespeople, officials and occasionally the president take the podium, have long been allocated by the non-partisan group of independent journalists, the White House Correspondents Association.

White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt accused the WHCA of trying to maintain a “monetized monopoly over the briefing room.”

“As for switching up seating in the briefing room, it’s something we are seriously considering,” she told Fox News.

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“The briefing room is part of the People’s House, it belongs to the American people. It does not belong to elitist journalists here in Washington DC.”

News outlet Axios reported earlier that the White House wanted to take control of the seating chart to give more prime front-of-room spots to new media, and move some legacy outlets further back.

The WHCA, of which AFP is a member, opposed the “wrong-headed” move.

“The reason the White House wants control of the briefing room is the same reason they took control of the pool: to exert pressure on journalists over coverage they disagree with,” WHCA President Eugene Daniels said in a statement.

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The WHCA and the White House both said they had tried to broker a meeting on the issue.

It is the latest effort by the White House to shape who covers Trump after taking control from the WHCA in February of the “pool” that covers the president in the Oval Office and when he travels on Air Force One.

The White House has added access to the pool for new and in several cases openly pro-Trump media, while reducing access to mainstream organisations.

It also continues to bar the Associated Press news agency from almost all presidential events as it refuses to refer to the Gulf of Mexico as the “Gulf of America,” the name newly decreed by Trump.

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