Foreign
Why India’s Modi failed to win outright majority
Indian PM Narendra Modi has won a third consecutive term in a much tighter general election than anticipated.
His Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) looks set to fall short of a majority and is leading in the 543-seat parliament, below the required 272 seats. However its coalition partners have gained additional seats.
The results are a personal blow to Mr Modi, who has always secured majorities in elections as both chief minister of Gujarat state and India’s prime minister, and dominated the country’s politics for a decade.
The verdict marks a surprising revival for the Congress Party-led INDIA opposition alliance, defying earlier predictions of its decline, and sharply diverging from both exit polls and pre-election surveys.
More than 640 million people voted in a marathon seven-week election, hailed as a “world record” by election authorities. Nearly half of the voters were women.
Many world leaders have crawled across the finishing line in their third term elections and Mr Modi is no exception. The BJP remains India’s single largest party by seats, and if Mr Modi secures a third term with his allies, the prime minister matches the record of Jawaharlal Nehru, India’s first premier.
But the significant loss of seats for his party – more than 50 – dims the allure of a third term, especially given Mr Modi’s campaign targeting 400 coalition seats, making anything less seem like an under-achievement.
This has led to jubilation in the Congress camp and some despair in BJP quarters. Despite the BJP emerging as the single largest party, the burden of hype and expectations has left many of their supporters disheartened.
Mr Modi’s supporters believe securing a third term can be attributed to several factors: a record of stable governance, the appeal of continuity, efficient welfare programmes, and the perception that he has enhanced India’s global image.
To his Hindu nationalist base, Mr Modi delivered on key manifesto promises: revoking the autonomy of Indian-administered Kashmir, building the Ram temple in Ayodhya and implementing a controversial citizenship law. Many BJP-ruled states have implemented laws tightening regulations on interfaith marriages.
The BJP’s significant drop in seats may be linked to joblessness, rising prices, growing inequality and a controversial army recruitment reform, among other things. Mr Modi’s harsh and divisive campaign, particularly targeting Muslims, could also have alienated voters in some regions.
His ambitious slogan “Ab ki baar, 400 paar,” aiming for more than 400 seats for his NDA alliance, may have backfired, with such a massive majority raising fears of constitutional changes among the poor.
Mr Modi’s party faced its largest setback in Uttar Pradesh (UP), a state larger than the United Kingdom and three times as populous. With 80 parliamentary seats, UP holds significant sway in national politics – many consider it the gateway to Delhi. Both Mr Modi and Rahul Gandhi hold seats there.
So what are the main takeaways of this election?
A dent of Brand Modi
Mr Modi’s popularity has been also attributed to his mastery of branding, transforming routine events into spectacles and astute messaging. A weak opposition and a largely friendly media also helped him build his brand.
The election results show that Brand Modi has lost some of its shine, indicating that even Mr Modi is susceptible to anti-incumbency. In other words, he is not as invincible as many of his supporters believed. This offers renewed hope to the opposition.
A return to coalition politics
India has a history of chaotic coalition governments, although some in the early 1990s and 2000s played a significant role in implementing economic reforms.
If the BJP forms the government, it will be dependent on allies and will need to adopt a more consultative and deliberative approach.
This dependency makes it vulnerable to collapse if allies feel neglected. The party, once perceived as all-powerful, is now reliant on allies, unlike in 2014 and 2019.
A jolt to the dominant BJP
Mr Modi’s uninterrupted decade-long reign at the top has underscored India’s embrace of what some political scientists term the one-party dominant system.
This has five key traits: a charismatic leader, unrivaled control over resources and communication, unmatched organisational machinery, and an opposition in disarray. Shrinking freedoms also characterise a one-party dominant system.
Mr Modi’s BJP is not the first party to dominate Indian politics. For many years after Independence the Congress ruled without a break. Tuesday’s result has restored India to what many consider “normal politics”, with a range of parties sharing and competing for power.
A resurgent opposition
The results will energise the much-criticised Congress-led opposition.
In February, the diverse coalition known as INDIA, short for Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance, faced turmoil when one of its key leaders, Nitish Kumar, exited – only to later rejoin the BJP.
But led by Rahul Gandhi, the opposition ran a spirited campaign and narrowed the gap, in the face of a partisan media and despite fewer resources.
There is more hope for them ahead. The BJP holds about a third of India’s 4,000- plus state assembly seats and has lost to regional parties before. Over the next 14 months, five states are set for elections – all could be keenly contested.
With contests in Maharashtra, Jharkhand, and Haryana this year, the BJP could face substantial competition. Delhi’s upcoming election may pose challenges, while Bihar in October presents a regional hurdle.
So what could a potential third term for Mr Modi mean?
India needs much more work and some healing.
The economy, fueled by government spending, is on the upswing. Yet inequality is rising. Private investment and consumption must increase, and the poor and the middle class will need more money in their pockets to spend more.
That will not happen if there are not enough jobs. In a country bristling with ambition and frustration, younger voters are likely to drift from the BJP – around two-fifths of India’s billion-plus people are under 25.
Mr Modi has drawn criticism for marginalising Muslims, India’s largest minority, who have borne the brunt of violence. His government faces accusations of stifling dissent, with leading opposition figures jailed on what they say are trumped-up charges.
But third terms have often proved to be rocky for many leaders, with unforeseen and unpredictable events blowing governments and their plans off course.
Foreign
Child-abuse scandal: Archbishop of Canterbury resigns
The Archbishop of Canterbury and head of the global Anglican Church, Justin Welby, resigned on Tuesday, following a review that revealed senior church leaders covered up the widespread abuse of over 100 boys and young men.
The abuse was perpetrated by a British lawyer, John Smyth, who led Christian summer camps in the United Kingdom and other countries during the 1970s and 1980s.
The independent review, which was released last week, found that despite repeated efforts by individuals to bring Smyth’s actions to light, the response from the Church of England was inadequate, amounting to a cover-up.
Smyth, who died in South Africa in 2018 without facing any legal proceedings, abused boys and young men under his care for decades.
The review revealed that the church’s failure to act enabled Smyth to continue his abuse in the UK and abroad.
In a statement announcing his resignation, Welby expressed deep regret over the church’s failures.
“The last few days have renewed my long-felt and profound sense of shame at the historic safeguarding failures of the Church of England,” Welby said in the statement.
Welby admitted that he first learnt about the abuse allegations in 2013, the same year he became Archbishop, but acknowledged that his efforts to investigate and address the situation were insufficient.
He said, “For nearly twelve years I have struggled to introduce improvements. It is for others to judge what has been done.”
The Archbishop’s resignation came amid growing criticism from victims and other church leaders.
The Bishop of Newcastle, Helen-Ann Hartley, remarked, “I think, rightly, people are asking the question: ‘Can we really trust the Church of England to keep us safe?’ And I think the answer at the moment is ‘no’.”
Survivor Andrew Morse, who was among those abused by Smyth as a teenager, called for Welby’s resignation.
He criticised the Archbishop’s handling of the situation, stating that had Welby acted decisively in 2013, further abuse could have been prevented.
He said Welby’s “admission that in 2013, which is really modern day in comparison to the 1970s and 1980s, that he didn’t do enough, that he wasn’t rigorous… is enough in my mind to confirm that Justin Welby, along with countless other Anglican churchmen, were part of a cover-up about the abuse,” Morse told the BBC.
The scandal has cast a long shadow over Welby’s tenure, which included officiating high-profile events such as the wedding of Prince Harry and Meghan Markle and delivering the sermon at Queen Elizabeth II’s state funeral.
His resignation marked a moment for the Church of England, as it grapples with the legacy of abuse scandals and attempts to restore trust among its followers.
Welby concluded his statement by acknowledging the profound impact of the review’s findings, noting the pain endured by the victims and the failure of the church to protect those in its care.
“I am so sorry that in places where these young men, and boys, should have felt safe and where they should have experienced God’s love for them, they were subjected to physical, sexual, psychological and spiritual abuse,” he said.
Efforts to get the reactions of the Church of Nigeria (Anglican Communion) and the Christian Association of Nigeria failed.
When contacted, the Communication Officer of the Church of Nigeria, Anglican Communion, Korede Akin, informed our correspondent that he could not speak on the issue, stating that only the Primate of the Anglican Communion, Archbishop Henry Ndukuba, could provide the position of the church.
Similarly, the Director of National Issues and Social Welfare for the Christian Association of Nigeria, Abimbola Ayuba, told our correspondent that only the CAN President had the jurisdiction to speak on international matters, as he could only speak to issues of national concern or social welfare.
Meanwhile, efforts to reach the National Publicity Secretary of the Pentecostal Fellowship of Nigeria, Bishop Emmah Isong, failed as his phone line was switched off.
Foreign
President Trump Makes Several Key Appointments (FULL LIST)
Donald Trump has begun the process of choosing a cabinet and selecting other high-ranking administration officials following his presidential election victory.
Here are the early picks and top contenders for some of the key posts overseeing defence, intelligence, diplomacy, trade, immigration and economic policymaking. Some are in contention for a range of posts.
Chief of staff
Trump on Thursday announced that Susie Wiles, one of his two campaign managers, will be his White House chief of staff. While the specifics of her political views are somewhat unclear, Wiles, 67, is credited with running a successful and efficient campaign. Supporters hope she will instill a sense of order and discipline that was often lacking during Trump’s first four-year term, when he cycled through a number of chiefs of staff.
Director of Immigration and Customs Enforcement
Trump announced on Sunday night that Tom Homan, the former acting director of Immigration and Customs Enforcement from his first administration, will be in charge of the country’s borders. Trump made cracking down on people in the country illegally a central element of his campaign, promising mass deportations.
UN ambassador
Trump announced on Monday that Elise Stefanik, a Republican congresswoman and staunch Trump supporter, would be his ambassador to the United Nations.
Stefanik, 40, a US representative from New York state and House Republican conference chair, took a leadership position in the House of Representatives in 2021 when she was elected to replace then-Representative Liz Cheney, who was ousted for criticising Trump’s false claims of election fraud.
Treasure secretary
Scott Bessent, John Paulson; Larry Kudlow, Robert Lighthizer and Howard Lutnick considered for the role of potential treasury secretary. Bessent, a key economic adviser to Trump, is widely seen as a top candidate for treasury secretary. A longtime hedge fund investor who taught at Yale University for several years.
Commerce secretary
Linda McMahon is seen as the frontrunner to lead Trump’s Department of Commerce, three sources briefed on the plans said. Mcmahon is a Professional wrestling magnate and former Small Business Administration director
Secretary of state
Richard Grenell, Robert O’brien, Bill Hagerty and Marco Rubio, among the top choices for potential secretary of state. Grenell is among Trump’s closest foreign policy advisers.
O’Brien, Trump’s fourth and final national security adviser during his first term, maintains a close relationship with Trump, and the two often speak on national security matters.
Hagerty, a US senator from Tennessee who worked on Trump’s 2016 transition effort, Hagerty is considered a top contender for secretary of state. Rubio, a US senator from Florida and 2016 Republican presidential candidate, is also a top secretary of state contender whose policies hew closely to those of Trump.
Defence secretary
Mike Waltz, potential defence secretary. A former Army Green Beret who is currently a US congressman from Florida, Waltz has established himself as one of the foremost China hawks in the House. Among the various China-related bills he has co-sponsored are measures designed to lessen US reliance on critical minerals mined in China.
Foreign
UK universities face funding ‘crunch’ as foreign students go elsewhere
By Francesca Hangeior.
UK universities are among the most prestigious in the world, but visa restrictions mean they are now attracting fewer international students — taking a heavy toll on their finances.
The restrictions are compounding problems caused by the UK’s departure from the European Union four years’ ago.
Almost 760,000 foreign students were enrolled in British universities in 2022, making Britain the second most popular destination after the US, in a highly competitive market.
Most come from India, then China and Nigeria.
But last year, the number of student visas fell by 5 percent. Between July and September, student visa applications slumped 16 percent compared to the same period last year.
The decline is a major cause of concern for higher education institutions since foreign students pay far more in fees than British students.
Leo Xui, 20 years old and from China, began studying population and health sciences at University College London in September.
“It’s good for my career,” he said of enrolling abroad. Thinking ahead to when he will return to China, he added: “I will be able to apply for a foreign company.”
His fees for the academic year are £31,000 (37,200 euros). British students attending universities in England have paid a maximum of £9,250 since 2017.
The Labour government, elected in the summer, announced last week that the cap would rise to £9,535 from next year, a move welcomed by universities who have been calling for an increase for years.
Universities UK (UUK), which represents 141 British higher education institutions, warned at its conference in September that funding per student is at its lowest level since 2004.
It estimates that the £9,250 fee is worth less than £6,000 because of inflation, leading to deficits in teaching and research.
“We are all feeling the crunch,” UUK president Sally Mapstone told the conference.
Universities have welcomed more foreign students in a bid to fill budget gaps, to the point where many are financially dependent on them.
According to a parliamentary report, foreign students make up more than half the student body at London’s University of the Arts and Cranfield University, a science and engineering institute just north of the British capital.
The Financial Times reported earlier this year that some universities, including York, have lowered their admission criteria to attract more students from abroad.
But the previous Conservative government, ousted from power in July, complicated the universities’ task by imposing restrictions on student visas as it sought to reduce record levels of regular migration.
It forbade foreign students from bringing family members with them, with a few exceptions, and prevented them from switching to work visas while studying.
In the first four months of 2024, there were 30,000 fewer applications from overseas than in the same period in 2023, according to official statistics.
“These hard numbers confirm our fear that the previous government’s changes have made the UK a less attractive study destination,” said Nick Hillman, director of the Higher Education Policy Institute think-tank.
– Overseas campuses –
Provost Ian Dunn of Coventry University, where more than a third of the 30,000 students are from overseas said the Tories’ “narrative was very destructive”.
The university had already been impacted by Brexit.
“We had 4,400 students from the European Union. Now we’re probably at 10 percent of that,” he said, adding that the situation was “difficult”.
A lecturer at another English university told AFP that teaching positions as well as courses had been cut.
“The drop in international students has dramatically worsened the crisis for us,” she said on condition of anonymity because she was not authorised to talk to the media.
“Some have preferred to go to Canada, Australia or the Netherlands, where courses are taught in English,” she added.
Coventry University may have found the answer by partnering with institutions overseas to open campuses in several countries, including Egypt, Morocco, India and China.
At the end of their studies, students may not have set foot in the UK but they still “obtain a degree from Coventry University”, said Dunn.
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