Foreign

Why India’s Modi failed to win outright majority

Published

4 months ago

June 5, 2024

Indian PM Narendra Modi has won a third consecutive term in a much tighter general election than anticipated.

His Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) looks set to fall short of a majority and is leading in the 543-seat parliament, below the required 272 seats. However its coalition partners have gained additional seats.

The results are a personal blow to Mr Modi, who has always secured majorities in elections as both chief minister of Gujarat state and India’s prime minister, and dominated the country’s politics for a decade.

The verdict marks a surprising revival for the Congress Party-led INDIA opposition alliance, defying earlier predictions of its decline, and sharply diverging from both exit polls and pre-election surveys.

More than 640 million people voted in a marathon seven-week election, hailed as a “world record” by election authorities. Nearly half of the voters were women.

Many world leaders have crawled across the finishing line in their third term elections and Mr Modi is no exception. The BJP remains India’s single largest party by seats, and if Mr Modi secures a third term with his allies, the prime minister matches the record of Jawaharlal Nehru, India’s first premier.

But the significant loss of seats for his party – more than 50 – dims the allure of a third term, especially given Mr Modi’s campaign targeting 400 coalition seats, making anything less seem like an under-achievement.

This has led to jubilation in the Congress camp and some despair in BJP quarters. Despite the BJP emerging as the single largest party, the burden of hype and expectations has left many of their supporters disheartened.

Mr Modi’s supporters believe securing a third term can be attributed to several factors: a record of stable governance, the appeal of continuity, efficient welfare programmes, and the perception that he has enhanced India’s global image.

To his Hindu nationalist base, Mr Modi delivered on key manifesto promises: revoking the autonomy of Indian-administered Kashmir, building the Ram temple in Ayodhya and implementing a controversial citizenship law. Many BJP-ruled states have implemented laws tightening regulations on interfaith marriages.

The BJP’s significant drop in seats may be linked to joblessness, rising prices, growing inequality and a controversial army recruitment reform, among other things. Mr Modi’s harsh and divisive campaign, particularly targeting Muslims, could also have alienated voters in some regions.

His ambitious slogan “Ab ki baar, 400 paar,” aiming for more than 400 seats for his NDA alliance, may have backfired, with such a massive majority raising fears of constitutional changes among the poor.

Mr Modi’s party faced its largest setback in Uttar Pradesh (UP), a state larger than the United Kingdom and three times as populous. With 80 parliamentary seats, UP holds significant sway in national politics – many consider it the gateway to Delhi. Both Mr Modi and Rahul Gandhi hold seats there.

So what are the main takeaways of this election?

A dent of Brand Modi
Mr Modi’s popularity has been also attributed to his mastery of branding, transforming routine events into spectacles and astute messaging. A weak opposition and a largely friendly media also helped him build his brand.

The election results show that Brand Modi has lost some of its shine, indicating that even Mr Modi is susceptible to anti-incumbency. In other words, he is not as invincible as many of his supporters believed. This offers renewed hope to the opposition.

A return to coalition politics
India has a history of chaotic coalition governments, although some in the early 1990s and 2000s played a significant role in implementing economic reforms.

If the BJP forms the government, it will be dependent on allies and will need to adopt a more consultative and deliberative approach.

This dependency makes it vulnerable to collapse if allies feel neglected. The party, once perceived as all-powerful, is now reliant on allies, unlike in 2014 and 2019.

A jolt to the dominant BJP
Mr Modi’s uninterrupted decade-long reign at the top has underscored India’s embrace of what some political scientists term the one-party dominant system.

This has five key traits: a charismatic leader, unrivaled control over resources and communication, unmatched organisational machinery, and an opposition in disarray. Shrinking freedoms also characterise a one-party dominant system.

Mr Modi’s BJP is not the first party to dominate Indian politics. For many years after Independence the Congress ruled without a break. Tuesday’s result has restored India to what many consider “normal politics”, with a range of parties sharing and competing for power.

A resurgent opposition
The results will energise the much-criticised Congress-led opposition.

In February, the diverse coalition known as INDIA, short for Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance, faced turmoil when one of its key leaders, Nitish Kumar, exited – only to later rejoin the BJP.

But led by Rahul Gandhi, the opposition ran a spirited campaign and narrowed the gap, in the face of a partisan media and despite fewer resources.

There is more hope for them ahead. The BJP holds about a third of India’s 4,000- plus state assembly seats and has lost to regional parties before. Over the next 14 months, five states are set for elections – all could be keenly contested.

With contests in Maharashtra, Jharkhand, and Haryana this year, the BJP could face substantial competition. Delhi’s upcoming election may pose challenges, while Bihar in October presents a regional hurdle.

So what could a potential third term for Mr Modi mean?

India needs much more work and some healing.
The economy, fueled by government spending, is on the upswing. Yet inequality is rising. Private investment and consumption must increase, and the poor and the middle class will need more money in their pockets to spend more.

That will not happen if there are not enough jobs. In a country bristling with ambition and frustration, younger voters are likely to drift from the BJP – around two-fifths of India’s billion-plus people are under 25.

Mr Modi has drawn criticism for marginalising Muslims, India’s largest minority, who have borne the brunt of violence. His government faces accusations of stifling dissent, with leading opposition figures jailed on what they say are trumped-up charges.

But third terms have often proved to be rocky for many leaders, with unforeseen and unpredictable events blowing governments and their plans off course.

Foreign

Sales of US existing homes slip slightly in August

Published

5 hours ago

September 19, 2024

Austin Ojomah

By Francesca Hangeior

Sales of previously owned US homes fell in August, according to industry data released Thursday, but lower mortgage rates and growing supply were likely to boost the industry.

Existing home sales dropped 2.5 percent last month from July to an annual rate of 3.86 million, seasonally adjusted, said the National Association of Realtors (NAR).

This was largely in line with the 3.90 million consensus that analysts expected.

“Home sales were disappointing again in August, but the recent development of lower mortgage rates coupled with increasing inventory is a powerful combination that will provide the environment for sales to move higher in future months,” said NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun.

Homebuyers in the United States have been grappling with a sharp rise in mortgage rates after the US central bank rapidly lifted the benchmark lending rate in 2022 to tackle inflation.

But with growing expectations that the Federal Reserve was going to pivot to rate cuts after holding rates at a decades-high level for months, mortgage rates have also shifted lower.

The popular 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.2 percent as of September 12, according to mortgage finance firm Freddie Mac — reaching the lowest level since February 2023.

A year ago, the rate was around 7.2 percent.

On Wednesday, the Fed kicked off a process of easing monetary policy with a bold half-percentage-point rate reduction, adding to expectations that mortgage rates would fall further.

“Existing home sales fell to a 10-month low in August, but forward looking indicators like mortgage applications point to a pickup in sales in September and October,” said economist Nancy Vanden Houten of Oxford Economics.

But Oliver Allen of Pantheon Macroeconomics cautioned that a mortgage rate of six percent remains “well above the average rate of about four percent on the stock of existing mortgages.”

“So moving home and taking out a new mortgage still requires a prohibitive jump in monthly payments for most current homeowners,” he said in a note.

“As such, a constrained supply of existing homes for sale will continue to hold back sales,” Allen added.

Compared with a year ago, NAR data showed that existing home sales were 4.2 percent down in August.

The median price increased 3.1 percent from August 2023 to $416,700, with all four US regions seeing price jumps.

Yun told a media call on Thursday that although home sales are struggling, home prices remained high.

Foreign

Meta shuts down Russia’s State-media accounts

Published

17 hours ago

September 19, 2024

Kayode Sanni-Arewa

Facebook parent company Meta is banning RT and other Russian state media networks from its platforms over claims they carried out covert operations to influence social media users.

The ban, which was announced on Monday, will globally block the accounts from Instagram, Facebook, WhatsApp and Threads users over the coming days.

“After careful consideration, we expanded our ongoing enforcement against Russian state media outlets,” said Meta, which already restricted activity from the accounts.

“Rossiya Segodnya, RT and other related entities are now banned from our apps globally for foreign interference activity.”

Rossiya Segodnya runs news brands including Sputnik and Russian news agency RIA Novosti.

RT had responded to Sky News agency that Meta “censoring information flow to the rest of the world”

“Don’t worry, where they close a door, and then a window, our ‘partisans’ (or in your parlance, guerrilla fighters) will find the cracks to crawl through,” their spokesperson said.

“It’s cute how there’s a competition in the West – who can try to spank RT the hardest, in order to make themselves look better,” they added.

The Kremlin said Meta was “discrediting itself” by banning the networks from its platforms.

Spokesman Dmitry Peskov said: “Such selective actions against Russian media are unacceptable.”

He added the move complicated prospects for Moscow normalising relations with the company.

The ban comes after the United States filed money-laundering charges earlier this month against two RT employees for what officials said was a scheme to hire an American company to produce online content to influence the 2024 election.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said on Friday that countries should treat the activities of Russian state broadcaster RT as they do covert intelligence operations.

“We’re exposing how Russia deploys similar tactics around the world,” Mr Blinken said.

“Russian weaponisation of disinformation to subvert and polarise free and open societies extends to every part of the world.”

In July, the US Department of Justice shut down nearly 1,000 social media bot accounts it said were created to spread Russian disinformation in the US.

It linked the accounts to RT, a state-owned broadcaster, accusing one of their senior employees of creating the bot farm which was used to “advance the mission of the FSB and the Russian government”.

When the media company was asked for a response to those allegations, RT replied: “Farming is a beloved pastime for millions of Russians.”

Foreign

Kamala Harris reacts to Trump’s assassination attempt; Says, ‘I am glad he is safe’

Published

3 days ago

September 17, 2024

Kayode Sanni-Arewa

Following the second assassination attempt of Former President Donald Trump in the Florida golf course ahead of the US Presidential elections, US Vice President Kamala Harris stated,‘ I am glad he is safe’. The shooting took place at Trump’s golf course in West Palm Beach, Florida. After the news broke out, Kamala Harris shared a post on the social media platform X (formerly Twitter) and said there is no place for violence in America.

“I have been briefed on reports of gunshots fired near former President Trump and his property in Florida, and I am glad he is safe. Violence has no place in America,” she wrote on X (formerly Twitter).

I have been briefed on reports of gunshots fired near former President Trump and his property in Florida, and I am glad he is safe. Violence has no place in America.
— Vice President Kamala Harris (@VP) September 15, 2024

According to the White House, both the Vice President Kamala Harris and President Joe Biden have been informed about the security incident of the Former President when he was golfing on Sunday and are both “relieved to know” that Donald Trump is safe, reported CNN.

“The President and Vice President have been briefed about the security incident at the Trump International Golf Course, where former President Trump was golfing. They are relieved to know that he is safe. They will be kept regularly updated by their team,” stated the White House.

Meanwhile, the suspect involved in Sunday’s shooting incident at Trump’s Florida Golf Course has been taken into custody, CNN reported, citing a Facebook post from the Martin County Sheriff’s Office in Florida.

Meanwhile, a suspect, who, according to the officials, is connected to Sunday’s shooting incident at Trump’s Florida Golf Course, has been taken into custody, CNN reported, citing a Facebook post from the Martin County Sheriff’s Office in Florida.

The sheriff’s office “has stopped a vehicle and taken a suspect into custody,” the post said. According to the office, a portion of Interstate 95 close to State Route 714 in Martin County is closed. Trump is “safe following gunshots in his vicinity,” the Trump Campaign said in a statement on Sunday, CNN reported.