Foreign
Why India’s Modi failed to win outright majority
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Indian PM Narendra Modi has won a third consecutive term in a much tighter general election than anticipated.
His Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) looks set to fall short of a majority and is leading in the 543-seat parliament, below the required 272 seats. However its coalition partners have gained additional seats.
The results are a personal blow to Mr Modi, who has always secured majorities in elections as both chief minister of Gujarat state and India’s prime minister, and dominated the country’s politics for a decade.
The verdict marks a surprising revival for the Congress Party-led INDIA opposition alliance, defying earlier predictions of its decline, and sharply diverging from both exit polls and pre-election surveys.
More than 640 million people voted in a marathon seven-week election, hailed as a “world record” by election authorities. Nearly half of the voters were women.
Many world leaders have crawled across the finishing line in their third term elections and Mr Modi is no exception. The BJP remains India’s single largest party by seats, and if Mr Modi secures a third term with his allies, the prime minister matches the record of Jawaharlal Nehru, India’s first premier.
But the significant loss of seats for his party – more than 50 – dims the allure of a third term, especially given Mr Modi’s campaign targeting 400 coalition seats, making anything less seem like an under-achievement.
This has led to jubilation in the Congress camp and some despair in BJP quarters. Despite the BJP emerging as the single largest party, the burden of hype and expectations has left many of their supporters disheartened.
Mr Modi’s supporters believe securing a third term can be attributed to several factors: a record of stable governance, the appeal of continuity, efficient welfare programmes, and the perception that he has enhanced India’s global image.
To his Hindu nationalist base, Mr Modi delivered on key manifesto promises: revoking the autonomy of Indian-administered Kashmir, building the Ram temple in Ayodhya and implementing a controversial citizenship law. Many BJP-ruled states have implemented laws tightening regulations on interfaith marriages.
The BJP’s significant drop in seats may be linked to joblessness, rising prices, growing inequality and a controversial army recruitment reform, among other things. Mr Modi’s harsh and divisive campaign, particularly targeting Muslims, could also have alienated voters in some regions.
His ambitious slogan “Ab ki baar, 400 paar,” aiming for more than 400 seats for his NDA alliance, may have backfired, with such a massive majority raising fears of constitutional changes among the poor.
Mr Modi’s party faced its largest setback in Uttar Pradesh (UP), a state larger than the United Kingdom and three times as populous. With 80 parliamentary seats, UP holds significant sway in national politics – many consider it the gateway to Delhi. Both Mr Modi and Rahul Gandhi hold seats there.
So what are the main takeaways of this election?
A dent of Brand Modi
Mr Modi’s popularity has been also attributed to his mastery of branding, transforming routine events into spectacles and astute messaging. A weak opposition and a largely friendly media also helped him build his brand.
The election results show that Brand Modi has lost some of its shine, indicating that even Mr Modi is susceptible to anti-incumbency. In other words, he is not as invincible as many of his supporters believed. This offers renewed hope to the opposition.
A return to coalition politics
India has a history of chaotic coalition governments, although some in the early 1990s and 2000s played a significant role in implementing economic reforms.
If the BJP forms the government, it will be dependent on allies and will need to adopt a more consultative and deliberative approach.
This dependency makes it vulnerable to collapse if allies feel neglected. The party, once perceived as all-powerful, is now reliant on allies, unlike in 2014 and 2019.
A jolt to the dominant BJP
Mr Modi’s uninterrupted decade-long reign at the top has underscored India’s embrace of what some political scientists term the one-party dominant system.
This has five key traits: a charismatic leader, unrivaled control over resources and communication, unmatched organisational machinery, and an opposition in disarray. Shrinking freedoms also characterise a one-party dominant system.
Mr Modi’s BJP is not the first party to dominate Indian politics. For many years after Independence the Congress ruled without a break. Tuesday’s result has restored India to what many consider “normal politics”, with a range of parties sharing and competing for power.
A resurgent opposition
The results will energise the much-criticised Congress-led opposition.
In February, the diverse coalition known as INDIA, short for Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance, faced turmoil when one of its key leaders, Nitish Kumar, exited – only to later rejoin the BJP.
But led by Rahul Gandhi, the opposition ran a spirited campaign and narrowed the gap, in the face of a partisan media and despite fewer resources.
There is more hope for them ahead. The BJP holds about a third of India’s 4,000- plus state assembly seats and has lost to regional parties before. Over the next 14 months, five states are set for elections – all could be keenly contested.
With contests in Maharashtra, Jharkhand, and Haryana this year, the BJP could face substantial competition. Delhi’s upcoming election may pose challenges, while Bihar in October presents a regional hurdle.
So what could a potential third term for Mr Modi mean?
India needs much more work and some healing.
The economy, fueled by government spending, is on the upswing. Yet inequality is rising. Private investment and consumption must increase, and the poor and the middle class will need more money in their pockets to spend more.
That will not happen if there are not enough jobs. In a country bristling with ambition and frustration, younger voters are likely to drift from the BJP – around two-fifths of India’s billion-plus people are under 25.
Mr Modi has drawn criticism for marginalising Muslims, India’s largest minority, who have borne the brunt of violence. His government faces accusations of stifling dissent, with leading opposition figures jailed on what they say are trumped-up charges.
But third terms have often proved to be rocky for many leaders, with unforeseen and unpredictable events blowing governments and their plans off course.
Foreign
Pentagon set to sack 5400 staff as attack hits Trump’s downsizing plan
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The Defense Department said Friday that it’s cutting 5,400 probationary workers starting next week and will put a hiring freeze in place.
It comes after staffers from the Department of Government Efficiency, or DOGE, were at the Pentagon earlier in the week and received lists of such employees, U.S. officials said. They said those lists did not include uniformed military personnel, who are exempt. Probationary employees are generally those on the job for less than a year and who have yet to gain civil service protection.
“We anticipate reducing the Department’s civilian workforce by 5-8% to produce efficiencies and refocus the Department on the President’s priorities and restoring readiness in the force,” Darin Selnick, who is acting undersecretary of defense for personnel and readiness, said in a statement.
President Donald Trump’s administration is firing thousands of federal workers who have fewer civil service protections. For example, roughly 2,000 employees were cut from the U.S. Forest Service, and an 7,000 people are expected to be let go at the Internal Revenue Service.
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has supported cuts, posting on X last week that the Pentagon needs “to cut the fat (HQ) and grow the muscle (warfighters.)”
The Defense Department is the largest government agency, with the Government Accountability Office finding in 2023 that it had more than 700,000 full-time civilian workers.
Hegseth also has directed the military services to identify $50 billion in programs that could be cut next year to redirect those savings to fund Trump’s priorities. It represents about 8% of the military’s budget.
Foreign
Senate approves Trump’s ally, Patel as FBI boss
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The Republican-controlled US Senate on Thursday confirmed Kash Patel, a staunch loyalist of President Donald Trump, to be director of the FBI, the country’s top law enforcement agency.
Patel, 44, whose nomination sparked fierce but ultimately futile opposition from Democrats, was approved by a 51-49 vote.
The vote was split along party lines with the exception of two Republican senators, Susan Collins of Maine and Lisa Murkowski of Alaska, who voted not to confirm Patel to head the 38,000-strong Federal Bureau of Investigation.
Patel drew fire from Democrats for his promotion of conspiracy theories, his defense of pro-Trump rioters who attacked the Capitol on January 6, 2021, and his vow to root out members of a supposed “deep state” plotting to oppose the Republican president.
The Senate has approved all of Trump’s cabinet picks so far, underscoring his iron grip on the Republican Party.
Among them is Tulsi Gabbard, confirmed as the nation’s spy chief despite past support for adversarial nations including Russia and Syria, and vaccine skeptic Robert F. Kennedy Jr. to be health secretary.
Democratic Senator Dick Durbin, in a last-ditch bid to derail Patel’s nomination, held a press conference outside FBI headquarters in downtown Washington on Thursday and warned that he would be “a political and national security disaster” as FBI chief.
Speaking later on the Senate floor, Durbin said Patel is “dangerously, politically extreme.”
“He has repeatedly expressed his intention to use our nation’s most important law enforcement agency to retaliate against his political enemies,” he said.
Patel, who holds a law degree from Pace University and worked as a federal prosecutor, replaces Christopher Wray, who was named FBI director by Trump during his first term in office.
Relations between Wray and Trump became strained, however, and though he had three more years remaining in his 10-year tenure, Wray resigned after Trump won November’s presidential election.
– ‘Enemies list’ –
A son of Indian immigrants, the New York-born Patel served in several high-level posts during Trump’s first administration, including as senior director for counterterrorism on the National Security Council and as chief of staff to the acting defense secretary.
There were fiery exchanges at Patel’s confirmation hearing last month as Democrats brought up a list of 60 supposed “deep state” actors — all critics of Trump — he included in a 2022 book, whom he said should be investigated or “otherwise reviled.”
Patel has denied that he has an “enemies list” and told the Senate Judiciary Committee he was merely interested in bringing lawbreakers to book.
“All FBI employees will be protected against political retribution,” he said.
The FBI has been in turmoil since Trump took office and a number of agents have been fired or demoted including some involved in the prosecutions of Trump for seeking to overturn the 2020 election results and mishandling classified documents.
Nine FBI agents have sued the Justice Department, seeking to block efforts to collect information on agents who were involved in investigating Trump and the attack on the Capitol by his supporters.
In their complaint, the FBI agents said the effort to collect information on employees who participated in the investigations was part of a “purge” orchestrated by Trump as “politically motivated retribution.”
Trump, on his first day in the White House, pardoned more than 1,500 of his supporters who stormed Congress in a bid to block certification of Democrat Joe Biden’s election victory.
Foreign
EU diplomat bombs Trump over dictator comment on Zelensky, points at Putin
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The EU’s top diplomat said Thursday she had initially thought US President Donald Trump had confused Volodymyr Zelensky with Vladimir Putin when he called the Ukrainian leader a “dictator”.
“First when I heard this, I was like, oh, he must be mixing the two, because clearly Putin is the dictator,” Kaja Kallas told reporters in Johannesburg.
In a post on his Truth Social platform Wednesday, Trump wrote that Zelensky was a “dictator without elections”.
Zelensky’s five-year term expired last year but Ukrainian law does not require elections during war-time.
“Zelensky is an elected leader in fair and free elections,” Kallas said in a briefing after attending a meeting of G20 foreign ministers.
The constitutions of many countries allow for elections to be suspended during wartime in order to focus on the conflict, she said.
Russia, which attacked Ukraine in 2022, could choose to hold free elections but “they are afraid of democracy expanding because in democracy, the leaders are held accountable,” the EU foreign policy chief said.
“It’s literally from the dictator’s handbook.”
Trump has rattled Ukraine and its European backers by opening direct talks with Moscow on ending the war but excluding Kyiv and European countries.
Kallas said the focus should remain on supporting Ukraine and putting political and economic pressure on Russia.
The stronger Ukraine is on “the battlefield, the stronger they are behind the negotiation table,” she said, adding, “Russia doesn’t really want peace.”
It was also premature to talk about sending troops to protect Ukraine after any ceasefire deal with Russia, Kallas said.
Rather, Ukraine needed concrete security guarantees that Russia would not attack again, she said, adding that history had shown that ceasefires had only been opportunities for Russia “to regroup and rearm.”
AFP
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