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Replacing Biden with anyone but Harris would be a real headache for Democrats

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Democrats would have a practical and political nightmare on their hands if President Joe Biden drops out and they decide to push Vice President Kamala Harris to the sidelines instead of the top of the ticket.

On Wednesday, Biden and Harris jointly proclaimed to campaign aides that they would press on in the face of growing criticism following Biden’s disastrous debate, according to the Associated Press.

“I am running. I am the leader of the Democratic Party. No one is pushing me out,” he said, according to the AP.

No one, least of all Biden’s running mate, can be seen publicly pressuring Biden to give up now.

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Harris gets the money — probably.
In the event that Biden does call it quits, the focus will quickly turn to Harris. She is by far the best-positioned of Biden’s potential successors to take over. Most importantly, according to campaign finance experts, she would have the easiest path to accessing the Biden campaign’s $240 million war chest.

While nobody is quite sure what would happen to the millions should Biden step aside, Harris would probably control the cash — but only if she became the nominee.

“If Harris succeeded Biden as the presidential nominee, she would maintain access to all the funds in the campaign committee and could use them to advance her presidential candidacy,” Saurav Ghosh, the director for federal campaign finance reform at the Campaign Legal Center, told Business Insider in an email.

That’s because she shares a campaign committee with Biden, Ghosh said. Given her initial involvement with the Biden money — and the presence of her name on FEC filings related to his candidacy — she is likely the only one who could use the money without much issue.

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Yet the same rules wouldn’t apply if Harris remained the vice presidential candidate or dropped off the ticket altogether.

According to Ghosh, federal contribution limits stipulate that candidate-to-candidate transfers don’t exceed $2,000 per election. While the Biden camp could convert the money into a political action committee if someone else was the nominee, there’s a catch — PACs can only donate a maximum of $3,300 per election to a different candidate.

“So in either case, there’s no legal way for Biden to transfer to a new candidate the $90 million dollars that his campaign currently has on hand,” Ghosh told Business Insider.

In a massive return-to-sender effort, the Biden campaign could also refund donations and donors could redirect their money toward the new candidate, campaign finance experts told NBC. Or, in yet another version of the future, the Biden campaign could transfer the funds to the national party.

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All things considered, Harris soaring to the top of the ticket if Biden steps aside seems like the simplest solution with regards to the cold hard cash.

But money, of course, is not the only question — though many heads are turning in Harris’ direction, longstanding questions about her viability as a candidate remain.

Harris has major support among the Democratic Party’s core.
Pushing Harris aside could risk a firestorm. The vice president has repeatedly declared that she’s standing behind Biden, but already, influential voices in the party are lining up behind her. Rep. James Clyburn of South Carolina, whose backing helped Biden win the state’s 2020 primary, has said he would want Harris if Biden drops out.

“We should do everything we can to bolster her, whether it’s in second place or the top of the ticket,” Clyburn said on MSNBC on Tuesday.

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In Washington, where the optics are never far out of sight, it would be impossible to ignore passing over the first female vice president for a man, or the first Black vice president for a white candidate.

Black voters remain the core of the modern Democratic Party. No single group is a monolith, but none of the major Biden challengers come close to Harris’ support in the Black community. According to a recent Economist-YouGov poll, 66% of Black voters view Harris favorably. In comparison, only 47% of Black voters view California Gov. Gavin Newsom favorably; slightly fewer view Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer in the same light.

The same survey found that voters still don’t know enough about Whitmer to have an opinion about her, underlining another potential headache. Harris is one of the most-known politicians in the country. Any potential replacement will likely need to introduce themselves to the American people and on the national stage.

This doesn’t mean Harris has every advantage. Her notoriety comes with the White House’s baggage. Republicans would likely tag her with the same attacks on the economy and immigration that they’ve used against Biden. Unlike a potential replacement outside the beltway, Harris would struggle to show any major daylight with the president.

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Already, Republicans are preparing for a potential Harris bid should she get the nomination and, with it, the campaign money. On Wednesday, the Republican National Committee released a digital ad calling her the “enabler in chief” and blaming her for chaos at the border.

Against ominous music, the ad asks, “Is this who we want to be president?” It seems the Democratic Party, and its donors, have to answer that question, too.

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Foreign

Pentagon set to sack 5400 staff as attack hits Trump’s downsizing plan

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The Defense Department said Friday that it’s cutting 5,400 probationary workers starting next week and will put a hiring freeze in place.

It comes after staffers from the Department of Government Efficiency, or DOGE, were at the Pentagon earlier in the week and received lists of such employees, U.S. officials said. They said those lists did not include uniformed military personnel, who are exempt. Probationary employees are generally those on the job for less than a year and who have yet to gain civil service protection.

“We anticipate reducing the Department’s civilian workforce by 5-8% to produce efficiencies and refocus the Department on the President’s priorities and restoring readiness in the force,” Darin Selnick, who is acting undersecretary of defense for personnel and readiness, said in a statement.

President Donald Trump’s administration is firing thousands of federal workers who have fewer civil service protections. For example, roughly 2,000 employees were cut from the U.S. Forest Service, and an 7,000 people are expected to be let go at the Internal Revenue Service.

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Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has supported cuts, posting on X last week that the Pentagon needs “to cut the fat (HQ) and grow the muscle (warfighters.)”

The Defense Department is the largest government agency, with the Government Accountability Office finding in 2023 that it had more than 700,000 full-time civilian workers.

Hegseth also has directed the military services to identify $50 billion in programs that could be cut next year to redirect those savings to fund Trump’s priorities. It represents about 8% of the military’s budget.

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Senate approves Trump’s ally, Patel as FBI boss

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The Republican-controlled US Senate on Thursday confirmed Kash Patel, a staunch loyalist of President Donald Trump, to be director of the FBI, the country’s top law enforcement agency.

Patel, 44, whose nomination sparked fierce but ultimately futile opposition from Democrats, was approved by a 51-49 vote.

The vote was split along party lines with the exception of two Republican senators, Susan Collins of Maine and Lisa Murkowski of Alaska, who voted not to confirm Patel to head the 38,000-strong Federal Bureau of Investigation.

Patel drew fire from Democrats for his promotion of conspiracy theories, his defense of pro-Trump rioters who attacked the Capitol on January 6, 2021, and his vow to root out members of a supposed “deep state” plotting to oppose the Republican president.

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The Senate has approved all of Trump’s cabinet picks so far, underscoring his iron grip on the Republican Party.

Among them is Tulsi Gabbard, confirmed as the nation’s spy chief despite past support for adversarial nations including Russia and Syria, and vaccine skeptic Robert F. Kennedy Jr. to be health secretary.

Democratic Senator Dick Durbin, in a last-ditch bid to derail Patel’s nomination, held a press conference outside FBI headquarters in downtown Washington on Thursday and warned that he would be “a political and national security disaster” as FBI chief.

Speaking later on the Senate floor, Durbin said Patel is “dangerously, politically extreme.”

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“He has repeatedly expressed his intention to use our nation’s most important law enforcement agency to retaliate against his political enemies,” he said.

Patel, who holds a law degree from Pace University and worked as a federal prosecutor, replaces Christopher Wray, who was named FBI director by Trump during his first term in office.

Relations between Wray and Trump became strained, however, and though he had three more years remaining in his 10-year tenure, Wray resigned after Trump won November’s presidential election.

– ‘Enemies list’ –

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A son of Indian immigrants, the New York-born Patel served in several high-level posts during Trump’s first administration, including as senior director for counterterrorism on the National Security Council and as chief of staff to the acting defense secretary.

There were fiery exchanges at Patel’s confirmation hearing last month as Democrats brought up a list of 60 supposed “deep state” actors — all critics of Trump — he included in a 2022 book, whom he said should be investigated or “otherwise reviled.”

Patel has denied that he has an “enemies list” and told the Senate Judiciary Committee he was merely interested in bringing lawbreakers to book.

“All FBI employees will be protected against political retribution,” he said.

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The FBI has been in turmoil since Trump took office and a number of agents have been fired or demoted including some involved in the prosecutions of Trump for seeking to overturn the 2020 election results and mishandling classified documents.

Nine FBI agents have sued the Justice Department, seeking to block efforts to collect information on agents who were involved in investigating Trump and the attack on the Capitol by his supporters.

In their complaint, the FBI agents said the effort to collect information on employees who participated in the investigations was part of a “purge” orchestrated by Trump as “politically motivated retribution.”

Trump, on his first day in the White House, pardoned more than 1,500 of his supporters who stormed Congress in a bid to block certification of Democrat Joe Biden’s election victory.

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EU diplomat bombs Trump over dictator comment on Zelensky, points at Putin

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The EU’s top diplomat said Thursday she had initially thought US President Donald Trump had confused Volodymyr Zelensky with Vladimir Putin when he called the Ukrainian leader a “dictator”.

“First when I heard this, I was like, oh, he must be mixing the two, because clearly Putin is the dictator,” Kaja Kallas told reporters in Johannesburg.

In a post on his Truth Social platform Wednesday, Trump wrote that Zelensky was a “dictator without elections”.

Zelensky’s five-year term expired last year but Ukrainian law does not require elections during war-time.

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“Zelensky is an elected leader in fair and free elections,” Kallas said in a briefing after attending a meeting of G20 foreign ministers.

The constitutions of many countries allow for elections to be suspended during wartime in order to focus on the conflict, she said.

Russia, which attacked Ukraine in 2022, could choose to hold free elections but “they are afraid of democracy expanding because in democracy, the leaders are held accountable,” the EU foreign policy chief said.

“It’s literally from the dictator’s handbook.”

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Trump has rattled Ukraine and its European backers by opening direct talks with Moscow on ending the war but excluding Kyiv and European countries.

Kallas said the focus should remain on supporting Ukraine and putting political and economic pressure on Russia.

The stronger Ukraine is on “the battlefield, the stronger they are behind the negotiation table,” she said, adding, “Russia doesn’t really want peace.”

It was also premature to talk about sending troops to protect Ukraine after any ceasefire deal with Russia, Kallas said.

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Rather, Ukraine needed concrete security guarantees that Russia would not attack again, she said, adding that history had shown that ceasefires had only been opportunities for Russia “to regroup and rearm.”

AFP

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