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2027: Plot Against President Tinubu Gathers Momentum

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The 2027 general election, though still three years away, is already shaping up to be a nail biting showdown for the soul of Africa’s most populous country, as the north, shaken by the unrelenting usurpation of its hitherto dominant position in the country’s polity by the President Bola Tinubu led South West, has begun to restrategize for battle. But the region presents its weakest front since Nigeria’s independence in 1960, against Tinubu, who has thus far, proved his mettle in exploiting weaknesses to his ultimate advantage, Thecitypulsenews learnt.

Over the course of the past few weeks, leading northern political figures, such as Tinubu’s predecessor, Muhammadu Buhari; former vice president, Atiku Abubakar; former Kaduna State governor, Nasir El-Rufai, former Kano governor, Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso, among others, who were hitherto in different political platforms, have held strategic meetings in, what Business Hallmark gathered, are part of an ongoing political realignment in the region ahead of 2027.

On June 22, Atiku, accompanied by some Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) stakeholders, visited Buhari at his home in Daura, Katsina State, to, as he put it, “pay a courtesy call and offer Sallah homage.”

The former vice president had noted in a post on X after the visit that, “My trip to Katsina today also afforded me the opportunity to pay my condolences to the family of my late friend and associate, Alhaji Lawal Kaita, over the loss of the matriarch of the family, Hajiya Yalwa Kaita, where I was received by the Governor of Katsina, Dikko Umar Radda. I also paid courtesy visits to the Emir of Katsina, HRH Abdulmumini Kabir Usman, and the Emir of Daura, HRH Alhaji Farouk Umar Farouk.”

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Earlier on June 19, Atiku also visited former Heads of State, Gen. Ibrahim Babangida (rtd) and Gen. Abdusalami at their residences in Minna, Niger State.

Atiku was beaten to second place by Tinubu in the contentious 2023 presidential election. Buhari, then outgoing president, had backed Tinubu, his party’s candidate, despite initially favouring a northern successor, but was literally bullied by northern governors, who insisted on power shift to the south, fearing possible collapse of the ruling APC. But with Tinubu apparently determined to consolidate power at the centre to the detriment of the north, the former president appears willing to close ranks with other stakeholders in the region.

El-Rufai, another prominent APC figure, who had been a staunch supporter of Tinubu in the lead up to the election last year, but evidently feel betrayed after being left in the cold by the president, has been making moves of his own preparatory to 2027. On June 27, he received Kwankwaso, leader of the Kwankwasiyya Movement, who relying on massive Kano support, came fourth in the 2023 presidential election, at his home in Abuja, all of which builds up to a definite political realignment to challenge Tinubu in 2027.

“There is evidence of rallying of forces, regrouping of political forces from the North trying to use former President Buhari as a rally point in order to evict the government of Asiwaju Ahmed Bola Tinubu,” noted Shehu Sani, former Kaduna Central Senator in an interview on Arise TV last week.

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Sani, who cautioned against the move in the interest of national cohesion, noted that the politicians, “hope to resurrect the political charms in the hearts of the masses and portray the government as the one that has been undermining the North and the one that has not been living up to his campaign promises.”

The harsh economic realities the country has faced since Tinubu assumed office last year after he haphazardly removed fuel subsidy and floated the naira, has created mass discontent among the populace, as hunger takes its toll, more prevalently in the north, a region also gripped by insecurity manifested by terrorism, banditry and kidnapping right across the region.

Across social media, a number of northern influencers have begun to describe the former Lagos State governor as an OTP, an acronym for One Term President, an affirmation of their believe that Tinubu will be voted out in 2027. In the wake of the controversies over the Samoa agreement which has been alleged – but denied by the government – to have provisions for allowing same sex unions has also worsened Tinubu’s reputation in the north, with some clerics vowing to ensure the president does not return for second term. But it’s easier said than done.

Tinubu, who lost his home state of Lagos to Peter Obi, the presidential candidate of the Labour Party in 2023, had relied on the north – and some would insist, the manipulation of the electoral process by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) – to win overall majority and become president. He will still need northern votes in 2027, and some analysts have wondered how he hopes go about it given that the north now appears unwilling to support him.

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Indeed, given the mass discontent among Nigerians towards the Tinubu presidency, a carry-over from the anger of the younger generation, who felt let down by the conduct of the last election, but now compounded by rising inflation, job losses, poor economic outcomes and the general hunger and insecurity in the land, many observers have tended to support the idea that Tinubu will likely be a one term president.

But Tinubu started making his moves from his first day in office. And despite the widespread misgivings against his government, it may still be a tall order to unseat him, even with the north’s best efforts. Tinubu has within the first year of his administration, managed to consolidate hold on the South West, the zone, which for the first time, now feels the aura of being in power.

Although, Olusegun Obasanjo, who took office as president in 1999, came from the South West, he ascended power on a pan Nigerian mandate, and thus never saw a need to run a ‘Yoruba government.’ The coming of Tinubu and his political structure, therefore, is the first time the South West will be taking power at the centre on its own strength. And from all indications, Tinubu intends to enthrone the zone as a dominant political player in the country for good, at the expense of the northern political establishment, which had held the centre stage for long.

Presently, all the core security and economic structures of the country, ranging from headship of Customs, Immigration, Army, EFCC, FCT lamong others, which used to be the exclusive preserve of the north, have been taken over by the the South West.

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This contest for control of the country, keen observers have noted, is what will form the undercurrent of the 2027 political battle. President Tinubu, apparently with this in mind, has continued to deepen and consolidate South West’s roots in the mainstream of Nigerian politics.

It is, therefore, not entirely strange that some of the political voices in the region like PDP’s Chief Olabode George, Doyin Okupe, among others, who had hitherto worked against his presidential ambition, have all made u-turns. Indeed, even Obasanjo, a who openly endorsed Peter Obi in the last election, appears to have suddenly developed soft spot for the president. He was recently seen wearing Tinubu’s signature cap at an event in Lagos, and he subsequently paid courtesy visit to Oluremi, the president’s wife, a move some insiders informed our correspondent, is part of political realignment happening in the South West.

North Losing Grips

For a region that had over the years, maintained a grip on Nigeria’s polity, the 2023 election exposed what many had suspected was the weakening of the north as a political entity. The attempt by Buhari to chose his own successor was thwarted by ambitious governors from the north, who apart from nursing individual ambitions of becoming vice president, genuinely feared that the future of the APC, if not the country itself, would be in jeopardy should the region attempt to retain power. Tinubu’s deep pocket, it must also be said, was a huge factor.

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Abdullahi Adamu, then APC chairman, had apparently with Buhari’s blessings, attempted to foist then Senate President, Ahmad Lawan as APC presidential candidate, but the move not only collapsed, but also cost the former Nasarawa State governor his seat as APC chairman.

Tinubu went on to emerge candidate, and ultimately president, after winning the majority of northern votes ahead of Atiku.

Going into 2027, the reasoning within the emergent northern opposition, it seems, is that the region having been instrumental to Tinubu’s emergence as president, would still be able to vote him out. But if anything, the 2023 election showed that the north has become vulnerable and can hardly now act as one entity.

There is little doubt that anger is growing in the north, as much as the rest of the country, as economic and security challenges mount. And the inherent strengths of the region, such is its voting population and huge landmass cannot be wished away. But with huge financial war chest and power of incumbency, Tinubu is likely to still buy support in the region.

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More importantly, with the overt promotion of religious politics in the region, coupled by mounting banditry and attacks by herders, which has also in some ways, assumed ethnic and religious colouration, there is now a situation, where a large chunk of what is originally known as the north no longer want to be identified as such. The much of the Christian north, cutting across much of the North Central, and fringes of the North East and North West, has opted for a new identity, the Middle Belt.

The decision of Tinubu to run a Muslim-Muslim ticket in 2023 was politically expedient. It helped to rally the core Muslim North behind him. But the down side of the ticket is that it was a direct message to the Christians in the region that they are not North enough, when it comes to politics.

“The north is no longer the cohesive political factor it used to be. In addition to banditry, kidnapping and poverty, the north has over the years been the scene of great, big bleeding batches of inter and intra-communal, sectarian crises rupturing the tensile political fabric of the region. There are sections of the north that do not want to belong to the same political party as other northerners and less even with any overarching northern political project,” wrote Iliyasu Gadu, a veteran columnist and media expert in a recent piece.

“There are sections and groups in the north, who have come to detach themselves from any political or social project in the north for the justifiable reason that the north no longer functions as an inclusive political entity for all northerners. Such people believe the north is now captive to exclusive interests and are using it in an opportunistic way for their advancement.”

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Gadu asserted that in the present realities, “no candidate of commensurate status and strength can match President Tinubu in the 2027 game. The Atikus, Kwankwasos, El-Rufais, Bala Kauras and Zulums are formidable in their rights, but Tinubu, for many reasons, is miles ahead of them politically.”

He further asserted that, “As for platforms, whatever the north can bring up will have to contend with the octopoid political tentacles of the Asiwaju Political Holdings (APH) in the Nigerian political space. The ruling All Progressive Congress (APC) is a no-go area for the probable northern political counterattack. And in the opposition Peoples’ Democratic Party (PDP), the APH will have by arrangement agents to block any northerner from emerging as a presidential candidate. In the run-up to 2027, the Asiwaju Political Holding will work overtime to ensure that other political parties are not in a position to offer any northerner their presidential ticket.”

Indeed, part of Atiku’s major undoing in 2023 was the split within the PDP, which saw the Nyesom Wike led faction, comprising of five sitting governors, break ranks to back Tinubu in the election. The main opposition party is yet to recover from the split, and with Wike now serving as FCT Minister under the Tinubu government, while maintaining a grip on the party, the PDP is now effectively another wing of the APC.

This will be a huge challenge for Atiku and whatever structure he hopes to build to challenge Tinubu in 2027.

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“It should be clear that the PDP is already out of the equation as a political party that can effectively contest and win power,” said Chidi Anthony, an Abuja based lawyer and political analyst. “Atiku’s refusal to stand down in 2023, when it was clearly the turn of the South destroyed the PDP fundamentally. The party had to go against its own constitution to enable Atiku to run. So, what Wike and his likes are doing is just symptoms of the rot in the party.”

Peter Obi, the former Anambra State governor, who broke away from the PDP to run on the platform of Labour Party, came third with over 6m votes, according to the results announced by INEC. His supporters insist he won the election. But going into 2027, Labour is now locked seemingly intractable leadership crisis.

The Atiku camp are muting the idea of a joint ticket with Obi in 2027, but neither group is likely to accept the vice presidential slot.

“I do not see an Atiku/Obi ticket happening in 2027. And mind you, Obi running under Labour Party was able to achieve that 2023 feat because INEC convinced everybody that the election would be free and fair. That will not the case. In 2027, whatever shortcomings witnessed in 2023 will be child’s play, considering that Tinubu is now president and he has foot soldiers across the regions,” concluded Anthony.

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Change Negative Narrative About EFCC Being Used For Settling Political Scores- Reps

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………Ask Anti Graft Agency To Fight Financial Crimes Within Established Laws

.
……My Staff Are Poorly Paid, EFCC

…., States Why Fight Against Yahoo Boys Fierce

 

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The House of Representatives has tasked the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission, EFCC, to purge itself from the negative impression that its being used to settle political scores and concentrate fighting financial and economic crimes within established laws.

The House handed the advise on Tuesday through the Chairman House Committee on Financial Crimes Honorable Ginger Onwusibe who led members of the committee on the 2024 oversight exercise on the commission.

The oversight covered extensive facility tour of departments and critical operational units of the antigraft agency.

In his terse remarks, Hon. Onwusibe challenged the agency to improve its operational activities in combating economic and financial crimes by complying with its 2004 Establishment Act and other relevant applicable laws like the Money Laundering ( Prevention and Prohibition) Act 2022: Terrorism ( Prevention and Prohibition) Act 2022: The Proceeds of Crime Act. 2022, as well as other statutes, that compels it to carry out these roles transparently with accountability and show that the negative maxim being peddled in some quarters that the agency is often being used for settling political scores is incorrect .

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The committee assured that it will collaborate with the commission to actualize its mandate by enacting new laws or amending old ones and as well providing budgetary interventions, if it must strive tirelessly to be on top of its challenges

The House urged the agency to collaborate with sister agencies and desist from keeping suspects as- awaiting ‘trial in correctional centres nationwide

“At this point let me add that a recent visit to the Maximun and Minimun Correctional centres in Kirikiri Lagos State, numerous suspects have been awaiting trial for over one year and yet we are all acquainted with the saying that justice delayed is justice denied”

” It is on this note that we call on the EFCC, Attorney General of the Federation and the Judiciary to improve and ensure the administration of justice works and is efficiently delivered to the victims”

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The House warned the agency to purge itself of rotten eggs in order to fight economic and financial crimes frontally, thereby stimulating the Nigerian economy

It also urged EFCC to focus properly on its mandate.

” The issue of appropriate and proper focusing on the mandate of the EFCC must relentlessly be on the front burner:

“Orders from competent courts , arrest and debt recovery must be pursued religiously” the House cautioned

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But on its side, the antigraft agency said it has not deviated from its focus but rather working hard and fighting financial and economic crimes as enunciated in its mandate.

Chairman of the agency , Ola Olukeyede told his guest in his remarks during the oversight visit that the commission was doing much to fight financial and economic crimes and stimulate the Nigerian economy

He said so far that the agency has recovered over N250bn cash, tens of million of Dollars and other foreign currencies, with over 3000 convictions: 17000 petitions while also investigating over 20000,with about 4000 fresh cases , all being handled by a misery number of staff strenght

He noted that its priority is to improve the country’s image and stimulate its economy, such that there could be improvement in foregin direct investments and stimulation of the local economy.
Olukeyede however, argued that the agency needed more staff strenght, funding , better renumeration for staff because they were poorly paid. He also emphasised on modern day technology to fight the ever dynamic cyber criminals

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According to the EFCC boss, it was important to give more salary to EFCC staff and deploy modern technology to fight emerging cyber crime dynamism . He expalined that the agency has increased efforts to fight Yahoo, yahhoo, boys because of their ability to crumble any economy within a twinkle of an eye

According to him, the agency was expanding its drag net to focus on ministries, departments and agencies infrastructural projects. ” “Go to MDAs and see their budget implementstion. It is not up to 20%”

“We want to ensure 50% infrastructural development” the anti graft boss announced, insisting that it would henceforth encourage monitoring of project implementation which was an aspect of preventing financial crimes

He said the agency has dismissed lots of erring staff, and will continue to dismiss and even prosecute them going forward.

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Olukeyede disclosed that it had designed a template on staff integrity, using the Gift- Policy model

.” It is not every thankful gift we should collect” the EFCC boss warned

” I am advocating for more welfare improvement, better welfare, he said.

“We will do more recoveries, more convictions, but we need more resources to do our work, maintaining that, that was his stand on ethics and integrity .

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Olokeyede’s demand for more salary wage for staff of the commission, is seen as an incentive to boost welfare and morale to fight financial crimes to standstill.

He stated that there was the utmost need to increase salaries of staff of the commission

The EFCC boss who spoke on his stewardship in the last one year, further added that it increased the war against Yahoo- Yahoo boys because of the consequences of their nefarious acts which could crumble a nation’s economy in a jiffy.

He argued that more technology was required to fight financial crimes.

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For instance he explained that it was a common scenario then for thieves and armed robbers to attack and break into banks with guns and Dynamites

” But it is the same common and more easier scenario and task now to have Yahoo-Yahoo boys and bank thieves attack banks with technology in the comfort of their homes or hideouts”

“So we need technology and we also need to increase our fight against these Yahoo boys who can dismantle any economy within a twinkle of an eye

He called on the national Assembly to improve and increase its finances because fighting Financial crimes was a herculean task that requires adequate funding

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Olokeyede who apparently was responding to criticisms of the commission’s over concentration on Cyber crimes/ thieves, perpetrated by Yahoo boys, said he has made tremendous impact in enforcement, investigation and conviction with an outstanding record convictions between October 2023 when he was appointed till date

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Trouble looming for Obaseki as Gov Okpebholo orders probe of his admin

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By Kayode Sanni-Arewa

Governor Monday Okpebholo of Edo State has ordered the setting up of a committee to probe the immediate-past administration of Godwin Obaseki for its failure to inaugurate 14 Edo Assembly lawmakers-elect into the 7th Assembly.

Okpebholo disclosed this while giving his inaugural speech as the new governor of the state.

Governor Okpebholo also ordered the State Chief Judge to immediately investigate the initial delay of former Governor Obaseki to inaugurate duly-cleared judges by the National Judicial Council (NJC) last year

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Naira may depreciate to N1,993 against dollar – Report

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By Kayode Sanni-Arewa

Nigeria’s naira has been projected to depreciate further to N1,993 per dollar in the coming days.

This is according to BMI, a Fitch Solutions subsidiary report title, ‘Weak Naira and Structural Challenges to Constrain Nigeria’s Medical Devices Market Growth’.

The report said the forecasted depreciation will be predicated on the 95 percent dependence on imports for pharmaceuticals in Nigeria.

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According to the report, the development would erode both the health system and patient purchasing power.

“We expect that the naira will end 2028 at N1,993/$ from N306/$ in 2018.

“As the naira weakens, the cost of importing medical devices will continually increase, eroding both the health system and patient purchasing power, especially to invest in essential medical technologies given the underfunding of the public health sector,” the report stated.

This comes as Naira fell to N1681.42 and N1735 at the official and parallel foreign exchange markets on Monday.

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This comes as FMDQ FX transaction turnover dropped significantly from $1.4 billion on Friday to $471.5 million on Monday.

Last Thursday, the Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria, Olayemi Cardoso, said the country’s external reserves rose to $40 billion.

Despite Central Bank of Nigeria’s interventions and external reserves rise in the last months, the naira has continued to experience fluctuations in the FX market.

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