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Economy

OPEC Says Dangote Refinery’s Diesel And Jet Fuel Supplies To Disrupt Europe’s Oil & Gas Industry

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The Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries, OPEC, has said supplies from Nigeria-based world’s largest single-train Dangote Refinery and Petrochemicals will put pressure on the performance of Europe’s oil industry, especially the Northwest Europe (NWE) Gasoil.

OPEC in its newly released monthly Oil Market Report for June 2024 listed Dangote Refinery among the top Diesel and jet Fuel suppliers that will disrupt Europe’s oil & gas Industry, a development experts forecasted will positively impact the Nigerian economy.

It would be recalled that Standard & Poor Global quoting trading and the ship tracking sources had earlier predicted that Nigeria’s $20 billion Dangote refinery would shake up international crude flows when it reaches full capacity, having already made an impact since coming online in January, trading sources and ship tracking data show.

The OPEC report revealed that “Upside potential for higher production levels from Nigeria’s Dangote refinery, coupled with strong flows from the Middle East and new supplies from the Mexican Olmeca refinery, will likely exert pressure on NWE gasoil performance in the mid-term.”

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It stated further “Europe is one of the world’s largest purchasers of refined petroleum products and relied on imports from Asia and the US after the European Union banned the use of Russian diesel in the bloc.

However, the 650,000bpd capacity refinery which is owned by the Africa’s richest man, Aliko Dangote, is eyeing the wider European market after International Oil Companies stopped supplying its crude oil.

Vice President of Oil and Gas at Dangote Industries Limited, Devakumar Edwin announced the company had earlier exported its first jet fuel cargo to Europe as it rapidly scales production.

The refinery is said to have exported 90 percent of its 3.5 billion litres of jet fuel and diesel to Europe over alleged lack of support from the Nigerian government.

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“It is good to note that from the start of production, more than 3.5 billion litres, which represents 90 percent of our production, have been exported,” Edwin said

BP is currently transporting its first jet fuel cargo to Rotterdam from Dangote, after being awarded part of a 120,000 metric tonnes tender offered for the end of May, according to S&P Global.

OPEC stated that, “In June, the jet/kerosene crack spread in Rotterdam against Brent showed a slight decline, influenced by supply-side dynamics. Despite signs of improving air travel activities, subdued jet fuel demand from the aviation sector weighed on the product market

“Going forward, European jet/kerosene demand is expected to see upward pressure as consumption levels from the aviation sector continue to pick up in the coming months.”

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S&P had noted that Dangote Refinery in its first six months, scaled to 400,000 b/d and delivered diesel, jet fuel, naphtha, and fuel oil to both domestic and export markets, with Gasoline, Nigeria’s primary fuel type, being expected to be produced from mid-August

Notwithstanding, the refinery has already affected crude flows, with dozens of Nigerian cargoes remaining in-country and US WTI Midland, a comparable light, sweet grade, being imported

The mega-refinery could therefore tighten the light, sweet crude market. “Its diet is WTI and the lighter Nigerian [crudes] so if you were chasing those barrels you’d probably feel it quite keenly,” a West African crude trader told Commodity Insights. “Once they get to 650,000 b/d without any WTI Midland, ‘severely disrupted’ [will be] the headline.”

WTI Midland crude initially emerged as the favored feedstock to supplement Nigerian supply, with the refinery signing long-term supply contracts for the US grade and noting its competitive pricing. Platyts, part of Commodity Insights, last assessed WTI Midland into Rotterdam at $82.36/b on July 31, while Nigeria’s Bonny Light was assessed at $82.80/b on the same day.

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Crude flows in and out of the Dangote refinery have been felt in other markets, especially in Europe, the largest consumer of light, sweet Nigerian crude. The US grade has accounted for 30% of crude delivered to Dangote, through 18 cargoes

President of Dangote Group, Aliko Dangote said the facility would broaden its feedstock sources with Libyan, Angolan, and Brazilian crude.

“The refinery was built to use Nigerian crude and add value to it within Nigeria. Why should we deviate from that focus?” said Dangote, adding that the crude supply issues were “getting resolved”, but that the refinery remained open to all opportunities “to supplement it”.

“Dangote refinery is designed to process a range of light and medium grades of crude oil, including Nigerian grades,” said Rasool Barouni, Associate Director and head of Refining at S&P Global Commodity Insights. “Other similar grades including other WAF grades could be an option.”

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Nigeria is sub-Saharan Africa’s largest oil producer, pumping 1.5 million b/d in June, according to the Platts OPEC Survey from S&P Global Commodity Insights. Until this year, all of its oil was exported due to the lack of refining capacity, with gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel imported for domestic use.

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Economy

Dangote Refinery, NNPCL resume fight over $1bn loan

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Dangote Group, owners of Dangote Refinery, and the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited, NNPCL, have clashed over a $1 billion crude oil-backed loan.

Recall that barely 24 hours ago, in a statement credited to NNPCL spokesperson Olufemi Soneye, the state-owned oil firm said it secured a $1 billion loan backed by crude to support the Dangote Refinery during liquidity challenges.

However, Dangote Group spokesperson, Anthony Chijiena, has described NNPCL’s claim as ‘misinformation’.

The company clarified that the $1 billion crude backed loan is about five percent of the total investment that went into building the 650,000 barrels per day refinery.

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According to him, it is inaccurate to say NNPCL facilitated $1 billion for Dangote Refinery amid liquidity challenges.

Chijiena explained that NNPCL had proposed a 20 percent stake investment valued at $2.76 billion in the Dangote Refinery, but that didn’t materialise.

He noted that NNPCL was able to invest $1 billion, which amounts to 7.24 percent equity value.

“Our decision to enter into a partnership with NNPCL was based on recognition of their strategic position in the industry as the largest offtaker of Nigerian crude and, at the time, the sole supplier of gasoline into Nigeria.

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“We agreed on the sale of a 20 percent stake at a value of $2.76 billion. Of this, we agreed that they will only pay $1 billion while the balance will be recovered over a period of 5 years through deductions on crude oil that they supply to us and from dividends due to them.

“If we were struggling with liquidity challenges, we wouldn’t have given them such generous payment terms.

“As of 2021, when the agreement was signed, the refinery was at the pre-commission stage. In addition, if we were struggling with liquidity issues, this agreement would have been cash-based rather than credit-driven.

“Unfortunately, NNPCL was later unable to supply the agreed 300 thousand barrels a day of crude, given that they had committed a greater part of their crude cargoes to financiers with the expectation of higher production, which they were unable to achieve.

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“We subsequently gave them a 12-month period for them to pay cash for the balance of their equity given their
inability to supply the agreed crude oil volume.

“NNPCL failed to meet this deadline, which expired on June 30th, 2024. As a result, their equity share was revised down to 7.24 percent. These events have been widely reported by both parties.

“It is, therefore, inaccurate to claim that NNPCL facilitated a $1 billion investment amid liquidity challenges.

“Like all business partners, NNPCL invested $1 billion in the refinery to acquire an ownership stake of 7.24 percent. That is beneficial to its interests,” the Dangote Group statement said.

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Economy

Nigeria’s National Bureau of Statistics Website Hacked

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The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) on Wednesday announced that its official website has been hacked.

The bureau disclosed this on its X handle.

The NBS announced that it is currently working to recover the website and urged the public to disregard any messages or reports posted on the site until it is fully restored.

“This is to inform the public that the NBS Website has been hacked and we are working to recover it. Please disregard any message or report posted until the website is fully restored. Thank you,” the NBS said.

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The NBS is the principal agency responsible for the collection, analysis, and dissemination of statistical data in Nigeria.

The statistics office has recently published several key reports such as the Nigerian Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Report Q3 2024, which provides an update on Nigeria’s economic growth and performance, the Nigeria Labour Force Survey (NLFS) report for Q2 2024, which offers insights into Nigeria’s labor market, including employment and unemployment rates and the Consumer Price Index November 2024, which provides the latest information on Nigeria’s inflation rate, among others.

In November, the NBS said Nigeria’s GDP grew by 3.46 per cent year-on-year in real terms in the third quarter of 2024.

The NBS said this growth rate is higher than the 2.54 per cent recorded in the third quarter of 2023 and higher than the second quarter of 2024 growth of 3.19 per cent.

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On Monday, the NBS said Nigeria’s annual inflation rate rose to 34.60 per cent in November from 33.88 per cent in October.

This marks a continuation of the upward trend observed in September, when the nation recorded a reversal of a two-month decline.

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Economy

UK inflation rises further ahead of Bank of England rates decision

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UK inflation climbed to 2.6% in November, up from 2.3% in October, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS).

The rise matches market expectations and comes as the Bank of England prepares for its upcoming decision on interest rates later this week.

Core inflation, which excludes volatile items such as food and energy, also increased to 3.5% from 3.3% in October. However, this was slightly below the anticipated figure of 3.6%. Services inflation, closely watched by the Bank of England for signs of domestic price pressures, remained steady at 5%, slightly below market expectations of 5.1%.

Earlier this year, falling inflation allowed the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to lower interest rates in August and November. The headline rate dropped to 1.7% in September but has since been pushed higher by rising energy costs and persistent services inflation.

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Despite the recent uptick, the Bank of England is widely expected to keep interest rates on hold at its meeting this week. Markets remain divided on whether a rate cut will come at the February meeting.

Michael Brown, senior research strategist at Pepperstone, highlighted the challenges ahead. “While risks to this base case are tilted towards a more dovish outcome, given increasing signs of overall economic momentum stalling, policymakers will be rapidly seeking convincing signs of disinflationary progress being made, as the economic cocktail facing UK Plc. increasingly becomes a stagflationary one,” he said.

The inflation figures follow Tuesday’s data showing stronger-than-expected wage growth. Average earnings, including bonuses, rose by 5.2%, exceeding the 4.6% forecast and October’s figure of 4.4%.

Chancellor to the Exchequer Rachel Reeves acknowledged the ongoing struggles faced by households. “I know families are still struggling with the cost of living and today’s figures are a reminder that for too long the economy has not worked for working people,” she said.

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Reeves outlined recent measures aimed at supporting workers, including no increases to national insurance, income tax, or VAT, as well as boosting the national living wage by £1,400 and freezing fuel duty. “Since we arrived, real wages have grown at their fastest in three years. That’s an extra £20 a week after inflation. But I know there is more to do. I want working people to be better off, which is what our Plan for Change will deliver,” she added.

Inflation is expected to rise further in the coming year as the UK continues to take a more gradual approach to easing monetary policy compared to other developed central banks.

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