Economy
FOREX Reserves Dip By $505.68 Million In August, Biggest Drop In Four Months
By Mario Deepromoter
Nigeria’s foreign exchange (FX) reserves have dipped by about $505.68 million (1.37%) in August 2024.
This is according to the latest data on the reserves from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN).
The marginal decline in the country’s external reserves coincided with the Nigerian government’s issuance of a $500 million domestic dollar bond, which is expected to provide much-needed support to the external reserves.
The CBN reported a reduction of $505.68 million, bringing the reserves down from $36.827 billion on August 1 to $36.321 billion by August 29, 2024.
Data from the CBN indicate a consistent decline throughout August, with a notable dip in the final week.
The reserves, which stood at $36.827 billion at the beginning of the month, gradually decreased as the weeks progressed.
By August 8th, the reserves had decreased to $36.848 billion, and by mid-month, they had further dropped to $36.529 billion on August 15th.
The decline continued steadily, reaching $36.444 billion by August 22nd and then $36.321 billion by the month’s end.
First time in four months
The dip represents the steepest monthly decline in Nigeria’s forex reserves since April 2024.
This persistent decline comes after a four-month period of about $4 billion growth in the external reserves. It also means that the reserves have lost about 12.64% of its four-month gain in August 2024.
It further highlights the struggle faced by Nigeria’s financial authorities in maintaining reserve levels amidst ongoing economic pressures, including the need to meet import demands and debt obligations, as well as manage liquidity for the naira’s stability.
What you should know
In the first week of August, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) sold $876.26 million at N1,495/$1 to 26 qualified banks in its latest Retail Dutch Auction.
According to a statement from the CBN, a total bid of $1.18 billion was received from 32 dealer banks. However, bids from six banks were disqualified, as four banks did not meet up with the deadline while two did not provide bids in their submitted templates.
Amid the decline in FX reserves, the Nigerian official foreign exchange (FX) market experienced a marked decline in turnover in August, despite the initial Retail Dutch Auction conducted by the CBN.
Data obtained from the FMDQ by Nairalytics, the research arm of Nairametrics, reveals a reduction of $1.08 billion, with total turnover falling to $3.25 billion, from $4.34 billion recorded in July 2024.
This decline of 25% highlights the ongoing challenges faced by the official FX market in terms of liquidity and stability.
The average daily FX turnover decreased from $189.42 million in July to $144.71 million in August, reflecting a 23.61% reduction. This decline suggests a significant drop in market activity, indicating increasing difficulties in accessing foreign currency.
On August 19, 2024, the federal government of Nigeria officially issued a $500 million domestic dollar bond.
This bond, part of the government’s financing initiatives, has a 9.75% per annum interest rate and is set to mature in 2029.
The Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Wale Edun, stated that the $500m domestic dollar bond will enhance external reserves and help stabilize the foreign exchange situation in the country.
Economy
FG services foreign debt with $3.5bn
The Federal Government spent $3.58 billion servicing its foreign debt in the first nine months of 2024, representing a 39.77 per cent increase from the $2.56bn spent during the same period in 2023.
This is according to data from the Central Bank of Nigeria on international payment statistics.
The significant rise in external debt service payments shows the mounting pressure on Nigeria’s fiscal balance amid ongoing economic challenges.
Data from CBN’s international payment statistics reveal that the highest monthly debt servicing payment in 2024 occurred in May, amounting to $854.37m.
In comparison, the highest monthly expenditure in 2023 was $641.70m, recorded in July. The sharp contrast in May’s figures between the two years ($854.37m in 2024 versus $221.05m in 2023) highlights the rising cost of debt obligations, as Nigeria battles massive devaluation of the naira.
The CBN showed significant month-on-month changes in debt servicing costs, with some months recording sharp increases compared to the previous year. A breakdown of the data revealed varied trends across the nine months.
In January 2024, debt servicing costs surged by 398.89 per cent, rising to $560.52m from $112.35m in January 2023. February, however, saw a slight decline of 1.84 per cent, with payments reducing from $288.54m in 2023 to $283.22m in 2024.
March recorded a 31.04 per cent drop in payments, falling to $276.17m from $400.47m in the same period last year. April saw a significant rise of 131.77 per cent, with $215.20m paid in 2024 compared to $92.85m in 2023.
The highest debt servicing payment occurred in May 2024, when $854.37m was spent, reflecting a 286.52 per cent increase compared to $221.05m in May 2023. June, on the other hand, saw a 6.51 per cent decline, with $50.82m paid in 2024, down from $54.36m in 2023.
July 2024 recorded a 15.48 per cent reduction, with payments dropping to $542.50m from $641.70m in July 2023. In August, there was another decline of 9.69 per cent, as $279.95m was paid compared to $309.96m in 2023. However, September 2024 saw a 17.49 per cent increase, with payments rising to $515.81m from $439.06m in the same month last year.
The data raises concerns about the growing pressure of Nigeria’s foreign debt obligations, with rising global interest rates and exchange rate fluctuations contributing to higher costs.
The global credit ratings agency, Fitch, recently projected Nigeria’s external debt servicing will rise to $5.2bn next year.
This is despite the current administration’s insistence on focusing more on domestic borrowings from the capital market.
It also estimated that approximately 30 per cent of Nigeria’s external reserves are constituted by foreign exchange bank swaps.
Regarding external debt, the agency said external financing obligation
The Federal Government spent $3.58 billion servicing its foreign debt in the first nine months of 2024, representing a 39.77 per cent increase from the $2.56bn spent during the same period in 2023.
This is according to data from the Central Bank of Nigeria on international payment statistics.
The significant rise in external debt service payments shows the mounting pressure on Nigeria’s fiscal balance amid ongoing economic challenges.
Data from CBN’s international payment statistics reveal that the highest monthly debt servicing payment in 2024 occurred in May, amounting to $854.37m.
In comparison, the highest monthly expenditure in 2023 was $641.70m, recorded in July. The sharp contrast in May’s figures between the two years ($854.37m in 2024 versus $221.05m in 2023) highlights the rising cost of debt obligations, as Nigeria battles massive devaluation of the naira.
The CBN showed significant month-on-month changes in debt servicing costs, with some months recording sharp increases compared to the previous year. A breakdown of the data revealed varied trends across the nine months.
In January 2024, debt servicing costs surged by 398.89 per cent, rising to $560.52m from $112.35m in January 2023. February, however, saw a slight decline of 1.84 per cent, with payments reducing from $288.54m in 2023 to $283.22m in 2024.
March recorded a 31.04 per cent drop in payments, falling to $276.17m from $400.47m in the same period last year. April saw a significant rise of 131.77 per cent, with $215.20m paid in 2024 compared to $92.85m in 2023.
The highest debt servicing payment occurred in May 2024, when $854.37m was spent, reflecting a 286.52 per cent increase compared to $221.05m in May 2023. June, on the other hand, saw a 6.51 per cent decline, with $50.82m paid in 2024, down from $54.36m in 2023.
July 2024 recorded a 15.48 per cent reduction, with payments dropping to $542.50m from $641.70m in July 2023. In August, there was another decline of 9.69 per cent, as $279.95m was paid compared to $309.96m in 2023. However, September 2024 saw a 17.49 per cent increase, with payments rising to $515.81m from $439.06m in the same month last year.
The data raises concerns about the growing pressure of Nigeria’s foreign debt obligations, with rising global interest rates and exchange rate fluctuations contributing to higher costs.
The global credit ratings agency, Fitch, recently projected Nigeria’s external debt servicing will rise to $5.2bn next year.
This is despite the current administration’s insistence on focusing more on domestic borrowings from the capital market.
It also estimated that approximately 30 per cent of Nigeria’s external reserves are constituted by foreign exchange bank swaps.
Regarding external debt, the agency said external financing obligations through a combination of multilateral lending, syndicated loans, and potentially commercial borrowing will raise the servicing from $4.8bn in 2024 to $5.2bn in 2025.
The anticipated servicing includes $2.9bn of amortisations, including a $1.1bn Eurobond repayment due in November.
The Small and Medium Enterprises Development Agency and economists have stated that the rise in Nigeria’s public debt might create macroeconomic challenges, especially if the debt service burden continues to grow.
The Chief Executive Officer of the Centre for the Promotion of Public Enterprises, Dr Muda Yusuf, explained that the situation could lead to a vicious circle, warning that “we don’t end up in a debt trap.”
He said, “I think there is a need for us to be very conscious of and watch the rate of growth of our public debt. Because it could create macro-economic challenges especially if the burden of debt service continues to grow.”
He maintained that there is a need for the government to reduce the exposure to foreign debts because the number has grown so due to the exchange rate.s through a combination of multilateral lending, syndicated loans, and potentially commercial borrowing will raise the servicing from $4.8bn in 2024 to $5.2bn in 2025.
The anticipated servicing includes $2.9bn of amortisations, including a $1.1bn Eurobond repayment due in November.
The Small and Medium Enterprises Development Agency and economists have stated that the rise in Nigeria’s public debt might create macroeconomic challenges, especially if the debt service burden continues to grow.
The Chief Executive Officer of the Centre for the Promotion of Public Enterprises, Dr Muda Yusuf, explained that the situation could lead to a vicious circle, warning that “we don’t end up in a debt trap.”
He said, “I think there is a need for us to be very conscious of and watch the rate of growth of our public debt. Because it could create macro-economic challenges especially if the burden of debt service continues to grow.”
He maintained that there is a need for the government to reduce the exposure to foreign debts because the number has grown so due to the exchange rate.
Economy
Oil imports drop by $1.52bn in Q2/24 – says CBN
Nigeria’s oil importation dropped to $2.79bn from $4.31bn in Q2 of 2024. This amounts to $1.52bn decline or a 35 per cent decline.
This development was contained in the Central Bank of Nigeria’s quarterly economic report for the second quarter of 2024 released recently.
This reduction highlights shifting dynamics in the nation’s oil and gas sector amid ongoing structural and economic adjustments following the removal of fuel subsidies under the administration of President Bola Tinubu.
The report also noted that the overall value of merchandise imports contracted, falling by 20.59 per cent to $8.64bn from $10.88bn recorded in Q1 2024.
The sharp decline in oil imports contributed significantly to this trend, the report noted.
The report reads: “Merchandise import decreased in Q2 2024, following the decline in the import of petroleum products. Merchandise imports decreased by 20.59 per cent to $8.64bn, from $10.88bn in Q12024.
“Analysis by composition indicated that oil imports decreased to $2.79bn, from $4.31bn in the preceding quarter.
“Non-oil imports also declined to $5.85bn, from $6.57bn in the previous quarter. A breakdown of total import showed that non-oil imports accounted for 67.72 per cent, while oil imports constituted the balance.”
Economy
Naira slumps against dollar to end on negative note
The Naira depreciated against the dollar on Friday at the foreign exchange market to end the week on a negative note.
FMDQ data showed that the weakened to N1678.87 per dollar on Friday from the N1639.50 exchange rate on Thursday.
This represents a N39.37 depreciation against the dollar compared to N1678.87 exchanged on Thursday.
Meanwhile, at the parallel market, the naira gained N10 to exchange at N1740 per dollar on Friday compared to N1750 recorded the previous day.
The development comes as Foreign Exchange transactions turnover surged astronomically to $1403.76 million on Friday from $244.96 million on Thursday, according to FMDQ data.
DAILY POST reports that in the week under review, the naira recorded mixed sentiments of gains and losses.
This showed Naira had continued to experience fluatuations in the FX marketers despite the Central Bank of Nigeria interventions.
Recall that on Wednesday, CBN authorised commercial, merchant, and non-interest banks in the country to manage tradeable foreign currencies deposited in domiciliary accounts established through the new Foreign Currency Disclosure, Deposit, Repatriation, and Investment Scheme.
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