BY BOLAJI AFOLABI

For many football loving Nigerians, commencement of the 2024/25 league season across Europe was a welcoming break from the recurring palpitations occasioned by multi-dimensional and multi-sectoral challenges pervading national space. Given the ecstasy and excitement it provides, spectators and fans are very hopeful that for about 40 weekends, something cheering would occupy their minds; away from the ever-increasing national problems. Back in the ’80s, *INDEEP* , was a New York-based musical group that released ‘ *when boys talk’* after it’s hugely successful ‘ *last night a DJ saved my life* .’ A line in the former that, ‘ *boys* *talk politics* …’ came to mind after the Liverpool versus Ipswich Town English Premier League opener few weeks back.

Over an hour of chit chat which included analysis, opinions, arguments, and more; a regular fixture at most viewing centres the topic of discourse veered into politics. From national to states and party politics, it was a robust and enlightening exchange between and among all. To add colour, panache, and rib-cracking to the scenario, the writer threw a puzzle; asking the name of the person who superintendents a particular ministry. For over thirty minutes, the gathering became a mini “who wants to be a millionaire” show. Responses were funny, cynical, and befuddling. At the end, many got it wrong, no where near the actual answer.

Buoyed by this disturbing discovery, the writer did random survey asking name(s) of ministers from people. The results were thought provoking, challenging and revealing. Names of few ministers are readily called. Somehow, the ‘playful’ exercise brought concerns to the writer. That people cannot readily recall names of their respective state’s representative on the cabinet list was shocking. That many had to resort to Google for “escape route” was saddening. That educated elites flunked the poser gives worrying signs.

August last year, when President Bola Tinubu sworn in his 46-member cabinet team after successful screening and confirmation by the Senate, there were varied opinions. While some people criticized the number arguing that it would stifle the economy, others believed it was the right way to go considering urgent need for pragmatic development. A school of thought postulated that aside being the largest ministerial cabinet since 1999, the names do not evoke confidence and believability. Another school countered that with the injection of achievers in the private sector, and creation of new ministries, Tinubu’s cabinet should perform. Yet, a different group inferred that with the creation of new ministries including Creative Economy; and re-modelling of few such as Health and Social Welfare; Agriculture and Food Security; Water Resources and Sanitation the cabinet was primed to deliver.

After one year in their various capacities as ministers, just as it was during composition, opinions and views of Nigerians are divided about their performances. There has been wide-ranging comments and criticisms about the cabinet. From reports, it has been deluge of condemnation and few commendation. What about consistent talks of large numbers; wrong deployments; lack of understanding of briefs; and more? For many people, the ministerial team has not lived to the expectations of Nigerians. Some opined that they have not justified the confidence reposed in them by Tinubu.

By their actions, inactions, and activities one can categorize the cabinet in five groups. There are the performers; those showing promises; those who flatter; those missing in action; and outright failures. Some merely make ‘politically correct’ statements with less or no corresponding action. Sadly, there are those who have taken, and maintained sleeping-modes. Some do not have any concrete and ‘see-able’ programme. Some have been innocuously silent, absent, and forgotten by Nigerians. Some have performed abysmally low in spite their initial boastful, and pretentious posturing.

Though there has been near-unanimity of opinion about the whimsical and undulating performances of the ministers, it is not all gloom and moody. Given the aggregation of views and opinions by people, there are few bright lights that evokes inspiration and confidence. In the midst of the class of largely non-ingenious, somewhat confused, overwhelmed, and disappointing failures, few have earned the applause and encomium of Nigerians. To reasonable extent, they have added depth and deliveries to the Tinubu administration. A bird’s eye review of these ministers; in no ranking order will suffice.

Nyesom Wike as the 17th minister of the federal capital territory is a paradox. To some, he is controversial and aggressive. Many others love his direct, frank, and open style of administration. Like or loathe him, vast majority of Abuja residents, and regular visitors commend his business-like approach to the delivery of outstanding projects and programmes spread in and around Nigeria’s capital. Under his watch, in addition to massive infrastructural development geared towards transforming Abuja, he has increased revenue generation to about 126.54 billion naira in the first 6 months of 2024, which is 53.5 percent higher than the figure in 2023. Public service reforms leading to establishment of FCT Civil Service Commission; appointments of Head of Service, and a dozen Permanent Secretaries; creation of Women Affairs, and Youth Development Secretariats. Extension of development to Area Councils to open up, and boost rural economy. Impressed by his excellent work rate and visible achievements, many describe him as the ‘poster boy’ of Tinubu’s government.

One can conclude that the Interior Minister, Olubunmi Tunji Ojo has shown passion, dedication, commitment in his tour of duty. The 42-year old Ondo state-born former lawmaker has displayed ingenuity and fervour in piloting the ministry. With the rare combination of brilliance, education, exposure, and experience, he has recorded achievements. These includes innovative templates for passport processing; clearance of over 200,000 passport backlogs in just 3 weeks. Facilitated the release of over 4,000 prison inmates; payment of outstanding allowances, and improvement of existing welfare structures of agencies; rehabilitation and upgrade of facilities. Cleared over 10 billion naira debts, owed by his predecessors in his first few months; procurement of patrol vehicles, and other necessary operational components for surveillance activities.

Doris Nkiruka Uzoka-Anite, the medical doctor turned banker and financial investment expert superintendents the nation’s industry, trade, investment ministry. Though she oversee a largely unknown but critical sector, she has made encouraging achievements which is expected to manifest from the third quarter of 2025. These includes $30 billion investment commitments by some international companies and agencies; $14 billion worth of FDI inflow; $10 billion offshore investments commitment in Nigeria’s oil and gas free zones. Secured $3 billion facility from AFREXIM to build an industrial park, and light manufacturing expected to generate about 20,000 jobs; over $2 billion partnership with an African Finance Corporation subsidiary to resuscitate the cotton and textile industries for massive economic boost, and job creation. Arguably, the best in the ministry since 1999, she needs to improve her public affairs management.

Under the pragmatic leadership of Engr. Dave Umahi, the Works ministry is being positioned to effectively and efficiently meet the expectations of Nigerians.The Abuja-Kano, Port Harcourt-Enugu expressways, and other federal roads critical to national development are receiving positive look-in. It is expected that Umahi will galvanise the FERMA to fix bad patches of roads across the country. The Aviation and Aerospace Development Ministry has posted some encouraging feats. Under the leadership of Festus Keyamo, the ministry facilitated Air Peace’s Lagos-London route; the US-Nigeria Open Skies Air Transport Agreement which is expected to enable local airlines operate more freely on this routes; resolution of trapped funds for foreign airlines; resolution of the Nigeria/Emirates Airline crisis, and few other initiatives.

Few other ministers overseeing justice; solid minerals; housing and urban development; finance and budget; health and social welfare; digital economy merits measured commendation. Can one say same about their colleagues in defence; education; environment; tourism; science and technology; creative economy; blue economy; agriculture and food security; steel development; water resources and sanitation; and niger delta affairs? Indeed, their respective contributions to the renewed hope agenda requires robust public scrutiny and citizenry inquisition.

Having grossed one year as cabinet ministers, the searchlight has been on them. There has been repeated calls for total overhaul of the team. Some believe that the non-performance of many ministers has led to preponderance of socio-economic challenges. Pushing further, some argue that Nigerians are wallowing in pervasive poverty, escalating inflation, and gradual moral depravity due to the glaring disconnect between government and citizens. There is the general believe that re-jigging the cabinet is most ideal. Tinubu’s ministers should count themselves lucky for being chosen among 200 million Nigerians. A Yoruba proverb that you can facilitate employment for someone but you can’t do the job is most appropriate at this time. Tinubu should do the needful by embarking upon major surgery on his cabinet; to increase citizens believe, re-focus government, and ensure immediate service delivery. Capacity, competence, experience, and relevance should form the criterion for emplacing the proposed cabinet makeover.

* *BOLAJI AFOLABI, a development communications specialist was with the Office of Public Affairs in The Presidency*

By Sonny Aragba-Akpore

Nigerians are commonly used to electricity power load shedding which strategically reduces or cuts off electricity supply to different consumers or areas in a controlled manner. “This process helps balance demand with available resources.”

It is often planned and negotiated with local building owners. Utility providers monitor electricity demand and identify when it exceeds supply or nears capacity limits. They then create a load shedding plan that entails rotating power outages, temporary current disconnections and incentives to building owners for complying. Once demand decreases or additional power resources become available, the utility provider restores power to the affected areas.

Load shedding can also happen without prior planning. Power customers might experience involuntary load shedding when a utility electrical provider lowers or stops electricity distribution across a coverage area for a short period of time.

This type of load shedding is commonly referred to as a rolling blackout. Brownouts, another type of involuntary load shedding, are caused by a power supplier lowering voltage distribution during peak usage times to balance supply and demand.

Load shedding is about survival when telecom operators might start turning off some of their cell sites during less busy times to save on energy and costs.

This could help them minimize resources better and keep services running, even when it’s not a perfect solution. If telecom operators implement load-shedding, the quality of service could decline sharply. Load-shedding would likely result in reduced network coverage, slower internet speeds, and an increase in dropped calls according to an analyst.

According to the Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC), Nigeria had over 164 million million active internet subscriptions as of March 2024,with mobile data accounting for the majority. A reduction in service quality could severely impact these users, leading to widespread frustration,this analyst added.

An alalyst describes load shedding as a deliberate shutdown of telecom services in a part or parts, generally to prevent the failure of the entire system when the demand strains the capacity of available infrastructure.

Plagued by incessant rising cost of operations, including the increased prices of diesel, infrastructure maintenance, and a depreciating naira, “have called on the NCC to approve a tariff increase to help mitigate their financial burdens.”

MTN, for instance,with a subscriber base of 81.7million as of March 2024,reported a first loss after tax of N137 billion since its 2019 listing on the Nigerian Stock Exchange in 2023. The telco incurred FX losses of N740 billion ($815.79 million at N907.1/$).

> “Airtel Africa, which had 63.3 million subscribers in Nigeria as of March 2024, reported a loss after tax of $89 million for its full year ended March 2024, primarily due to FX headwinds in Nigeria and Malawi. It lost $1.26 billion to derivative and FX exposures, with $770 million attributed to the naira’s devaluation.”

This has led to dwindled investment in the telecoms sector, Carl Cruz, chief executive officer of Airtel Nigeria, stated, adding that, “The devaluation of the Naira moving from N420/dollar to N760/dollar in a month’s time, to about N1500/dollar today, had indeed affected telecoms industry who rely heavily on importation of infrastructure to grow the sector.’

In the same vein, Karl Toriola, CEO, MTN Nigeria, said operators are reluctant to invest, simply because of the high operating cost and the devaluation of naira, among other issues that have marred the growth of the sector.

According to him, the telecoms sector in Nigeria is now in an intensive care unit (ICU) gasping for breath, while calling on the government to intervene.

The sector is facing a lot of challenges of which if urgent action is not taken, it will dry up. The truth is that investors are not going to come to invest in the sector if the fundamental issues are not addressed. To rescue the sector from collapsing, there is a need to increase prices of telecom services.”

Despite repeated pleas, the regulatory body has remained silent on the issue, causing frustration and uncertainty among industry players.

ALTON had earlier sent a working paper (memo) to the telecom regulator (NCC) saying that “the telecommunications industry has been significantly impacted by a myriad of macroeconomic challenges experienced in recent years due to the resulting exponential increase in broad business costs.”

“Of particular importance are:
*the upward trajectory in the inflation rate from 11.98% in 2019 to 21.34% in 2022 and currently 27.33% as at October 2023;
•rapid devaluation of the Naira evidenced by the recent upward movement at a rate of 68.5% from N461/$1 in December 2022 to N777/US$ as at the end of September 2023;and now over 1,590/a dollar.

•Sustained rise in energy prices with diesel currently retailing at an average price of N1,400/litre from N250/litre in January 2022.

With energy costs representing >40% of Mobile Network Operators’ operating expenses, tighter external financing conditions, higher debt service payments, and increased pressure on the Nigerian FOREX market, there has been a significant increase in the cost of production which has jeopardized MNOs’ capacity to maintain healthy margins in such a capital-intensive and FOREX- dependent industry as ours.

Despite these adverse economic headwinds, the telecommunications industry remains the only industry that has yet to effect any general tariff increase for its services in the last five years due to regulatory and political restrictions limiting the MNOs’ ability to react to the increased cost of doing business with our applications for these general increases still pending with the Commission one year after submission. The same cannot be said for our counterparts in other critical industries who have adjusted the retail prices of their goods and services with the support of their industry regulators to be reflective of their true business costs of production as a means of cushioning the net effect of the sky rocketing costs of doing business. We have attached, for the EVC’s consideration, a detailed overview of examples of such price increases in other sectors.

The operators also lament regulatory overlaps where unbudgetted expenditures are spent to defray unexpected expenses.

In their own position,ALTON also advocates for the co-creation of policies for the ICT sector,
better collaboration between ICT and non-ICT regulators with oversight over the sector (environment and consumer and corporate
governance) given the cross-cutting nature of digital services, which span multiple subject areas and regulatory frameworks.

“The Federal Government should also give the telecoms sector a special status like
> Agriculture and Manufacturing and introduce fiscal incentives for the sector, for example, the reduction of spectrum and numbering fees,replicate Road Infrastructure Tax Credit scheme for digital infrastructure projects.”

“ There is also a need to encourage market consolidation/collaboration arrangements to build stronger market players in the industry.”

“Implementation of the Open Data policy to make data accessible such that companies can collaborate with third-party developers, startups,
>> and other industries to develop applications, analytics tools, and
>> personalized services which will unlock new data-driven revenue
>> streams not only for telecoms but also for other industries such as banking, agriculture, manufacturing, “

“ We also require capable regulatory agencies overseeing and regulating these innovations. As such, the staff of relevant agencies will need to upskill and broaden their knowledge base while revising their frameworks to enhance technical and analytical capabilities.”

> ALTON laments that amid the formidable challenges facing the industry, “MNOs have also had to contend with a protracted history of non-payment by Deposit Money Banks (DMBs) and other Financial Institutions (FIs) for their utilization of Unstructured Supplementary Service Data (USSD) services provided by MNOs from September 2019 till date.”

> “Regardless of the numerous ministerial and joint regulator-led interventions on this issue, commencing with the intervention of the immediate past Honorable Minister of Communications and Digital Economy (HMoCDE) in 2021, the consequent approval for disconnection of the banks issued by the Commission further to the HMoCDE’s directive in 2022, and the recent joint resolutions issued by the Commission and the CBN in August 2023 on the terms for defraying the debts owed, the DMBs and FIs have brazenly and persistently refused to meet their obligations to the MNOs through the malicious non-payment or, in many instances, the payment of a minuscule portion of their monthly invoices which has led to the accumulation of a massive debt of ⁓N200 Billion.”

> As a former Executive Director, Technical Services at the Nigeria Inter-Bank Settlement System PLC (NIBSS), “we believe the EVC appreciates the facilitative role of telecommunications in the provision of financial services to Nigerians and how the USSD service has transformed digital banking and advanced financial inclusion in Nigeria, thereby, positively impacting the balance sheet of the DMBs and FIs.”
> “We maintain that it is beyond the pale for the banking industry to hold the telecommunications industry to ransom by its impenitent freeloading activities.

We, therefore, respectfully urge the EVC to take decisive action to put an end to this deplorable practice moreso as the provision of such USSD services to DMBs and FIs come at considerable cost to MNOs. “

> USSD services require substantial investment in enabling platforms such as Applications Programming Interface (APIs) and USSD Gateways for service delivery, cost of establishing signaling channels (a limited and critical network resource essential for the hitch-free service delivery) and the opportunity cost of utilizing these signaling channels and network services for USSD services instead of other prepaid network services such as Call/SMS set-up and delivery which cannot run in parallel with a USSD session.

By Sonny Aragba-Akpore

By the time you wake up one faithful morning to the observation that your mobile phone has no network connection,don’t panic please.

Just know that load shedding by Mobile Network Operators (MNOs) has begun.
The operators served notice recently that this was going to happen as one remedy to remain in business and continue to provide services no matter how skeletal.
Their plans are predicated on the crisis in the economy and especially power supplies for their large number of base stations due to high cost of maintenance including but not limited to vandalism and diesel supplies whose cost they reasoned had hit the roof.
To keep cell sites running is not a tea party they reasoned.

Power supply from public source is not only expensive and often unavailable but also unreliable in Nigeria, and these companies spend a fortune on diesel to keep generators running.
Originally promised 18 hours of daily power when telecoms started in 2001, but reality has dawned on everyone and this supply promise is a far cry from that. On the average, they get only 8-10 hours of power daily, for those who are fortunate,meaning they’ve had to fill the gap with costly alternatives.
There are over 40,000 base stations nationwide and if the operators implement the load shedding,about 30 to 40 percent base stations will be shut down or at best provide skeletal services and Ofcourse,subscribers will bear the brunt.
Unconfirmed figures indicate that about N400 billion was spent on diesel alone in 2023 and the figures are likely to rise as there appears to be no respite in the economy and supply of the product.

Vandalism has been a major headache too as the sector experiences incessant downtime as a result of damage to operators infrastructure across the country.
Association of Licenced Telecom Operators of Nigeria (ALTON) Chairman,Gbenga Adebayo said at a public forum recently that “recognizing the pivotal role of the sector, the Federal Ministry of Communications, Innovation and Digital Economy (FMoCIDE) set a four-year ambitious growth plan for the telecommunications industry in
its 2023 – 2027 Strategic Blueprint, which include the following
amongst others: 22% increase in telecommunications sector’s net contribution
to GDP; 15% y-o-y increase in investment to the telecommunications
sector; and 100% increase in the yearly net revenue of the telecommunications sector to the Federal Government – all to
be achieved by 2027”
Adebayo is worried that “It is, however, impossible to achieve any of these lofty policy targets and the long-term financial sustainability of the sector without
actionable strategic and tactical actions”
He is amazed that “while headline statistics like the ICT sector’s GDP contribution and
telecommunications’ 5.67% share of quarterly capital importation in
Q1 2024 appear encouraging, a deeper analysis of the industry’s stats,
on the other hand, reveal a troubling decline in domestic CAPEX and
foreign direct investments by 30.37% and 46.9%, respectively,
between 2021 and 2022, while operational expenses surged.”

There are records showing that major licensees have reported losses in Financial Year 2023 and half year 2024 due to the
impact of these macroeconomic headwinds. “For example, for FY 2023,
MTN Nigeria reported a net ₦137 billion loss amidst naira devaluation
while Airtel Africa suffered a $549m FOREX loss over currency
devaluations in Nigeria. We expect the 2023 Industry Year-End Performance reports to reveal a further downward trend.
“In the midst of this, there remains the perennial issue of Multiple
taxation with telecoms operators paying circa 54 kinds of federal/state/local government taxes/levies inclusive of illegal Taxes and Levies imposed by sub-nationals, which are taxes not explicitly stated in the Taxes and Levies Act yet applied discriminately and
specifically to the Nigerian Communications Sector. In some cases, new taxes emerge on account of multiple and overlapping regulation, with agencies creating a state or local version of a federal tax and even the
National Assembly considering numerous Bills seeking to impose levies on telecoms operators to finance new and completely unrelated government agencies. This may be attributed to the perception that
the telecommunications industry is highly profitable and as such considered as a ready ‘cash cow’ to meet the needs of Ministries,
Departments and Agencies (MDAs) at the Federal, State and Local
Government levels in their drive to shore up dwindling internally
generated revenues.”
“In addition to the rapidly increasing OPEX,operators must also contend with the macro-economic headwinds including:
spiraling double digit inflation (34.19%
as at June 2024 per NBS);
FOREX volatility and associated
currency depreciation (with the Naira
closing at N1,505/US$1 as at June
2024 at the Nigerian Autonomous
Foreign Exchange Market);
Increasing Monetary Policy Rate
currently set at 26.75%;
Increased energy costs with the
average retail price of diesel set at
N1,462.98 according to NBS June 2024,
(Diesel Price Watch Report) representing a 4.20% and 79.32%
increases m-o-m and y-o-y
respectively.

This singular production
input (i.e. energy) accounts for a
significant percentage of telcos’ OPEX.
(≥35%) done in numerous industries including power, insurance,
transportation (rail & aviation).

The existing regulatory determinations on voice and data
service rates, around which industry retail prices converge, are quite dated and are not reflective of the current
macroeconomic realities. For example:
The current price floor of N6.40/Minute for voice calls was instituted since December 1,2016;
The current industry average of N0.10/MB for data was instituted further to the Commission’s suspension of the
then interim data price floor of N0.90/MB in November 2016;
“For context, at the time the still applicable price floor and
industry average for voice calls and data were instituted, the monthly average exchange rate across the DAS, IFEM and BDC channels was N373.64/US$1 and the inflation rate was at about
18.48%. Yet, the rigid tariff regime that currently exists has not allowed for the sector’s response to the increased input
costs and market dynamics.”

“ Specifically, ALTON recommends the creation of a sustainable, low-
interest targeted Infrastructure Funding/Financing framework to
enable improved telecommunications infrastructure deployment.”

“A dedicated FOREX window for the computation of Import Duty Levies
payable for the clearance of telecommunications equipment at the
ports through the Nigeria Customs Service will also be helpful.”
“Introduction of import duty waiver/reduction in import duties payable
on telecommunications equipment in addition to investment in local
device assembly plant.”Adebayo added.

Apart from asking for higher tariffs to remain in business,the operators are asking for incentives from government to sustain their operations
A breakdown of what’s going on indicates that these companies are finding it harder and harder by the day to keep up with the costs of running their operations. And they appear to be drowning in taxes.
The tax rate on these companies can be as high as 39%, according to a PriceWaterHouse Cooper report.

That’s a huge chunk of their revenue going straight to the government, leaving them with less money to invest in improving their services.

Apart from the taxes,there are limited funds to plough into capital expenditure (CAPEX) and operations costs are generally getting out of hand.
Despite the operators struggles to cope with escalating financial pressures, including multiple taxes, rising energy costs, and mounting debts especially on interconnect fees and the ones owes by Deposit Money Banks among others,the Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC) is unconvinced about tariff hikes perceiving the load shedding as a veiled threat from the telcos to force a tariff hike. The regulator is unfazed saying that it would not be blackmailed into approving price increases, asserting that such tactics are not conducive to resolving the industry’s challenges.
Load shedding and tariff hikes are only short-term reliefs for telecom operators, but in reality they should be pushing for long term measures that could also lead to long-term challenges with Operators facing regulatory backlash, especially if the NCC and consumer groups like the National Association of Telecom Subscribers of Nigeria (NATCOMS) resist tariff increases or if service quality declines sharply.

Also, if consumer satisfaction drops, operators could see a rise in churn rates, where customers switch to competing providers. Although the Nigerian telecom market is somewhat oligopolistic, with a few major players like MTN, Airtel, and Glo dominating, dissatisfied customers might still seek alternatives. The situation is still unfolding, but it’s clear that Nigerian telecom companies are in a tough spot. Whether they go through with load-shedding, hike tariffs, or find another way out, the industry is at a critical juncture. For now, all we can do is wait and see how this plays out, and hope it doesn’t end with us having to pay more for worse service.