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The odds against war in the Middle East

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The winds of an all-out regional war and a possible Third World War are right now blowing fiercely in the Middle East. Countries including Nigeria are evacuating their nationals from the region and those without means to do so are asking them to leave as quickly as feasible.

For about a year now Israel has been bombing the Palestinian Gaza strip to smithereens in retaliation for the killing of several Israelis revelling in an outdoor event inside Israel last October by members of the Palestinian Hamas group. In the attack, the Hamas operatives took with them scores of Israelis in addition to the killing

In response, the Israeli government led by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu vowed to exact a severe retribution on Hamas by going after its infrastructure in the Gaza strip. In the process about 50,000 Palestinians have been killed in the non-stop combined bombing raids and ground attacks by the Israeli Defence Forces. The Israelis too have suffered thousands killed in pitch battles with the Hamas operatives.

Shunning calls across the world for a ceasefire and to allow humanitarian convoys to convey relief supplies get to the besieged Palestinians, Israel had carried on its relentless aerial bombing and ground attacks indiscriminately targeting hospitals, schools, worship places, residential areas, water and electricity plants and other critical infrastructure.

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To the north of Israel in southern Lebanon, the Lebanese guerrilla group Hizbollah which supports Hamas had been launching intermittent attacks on targets in Israel while the latter has been engaged in Gaza. The Israeli army’s engagement against Hizbollah took a turn for the worst recently when its leader Hassan Nasrallah and several of the group’s leaders were killed in coordinated bomb blasts through their pagers using electronic timing devices to detonate hidden bombs placed in the pagers. Israel has followed up its aerial bombing of Lebanon with ground attacks intended to smash Hizbollah and its infrastructure in Lebanon.

In retaliation last week, Iran to which Hizbollah is affiliated, launched hundreds of missiles some of them hypersonic on targets including the strategic Nevatzim Airforce home to some of Israel’s cutting edge fighter airplanes and the headquarters of the Israeli foreign Intelligence out-fit MOSSAD in Herzliyya district (named after Theodor Herzl, the founder of the World Zionist movement). Iran said the attacks were carried out in response to the killing of the Hizbollah leader and his associated and vowed that should Israel launch any counter attack, Iran with greater force.

Israel has promised to respond to these missile attacks ‘’at a time of its choosing’’. Analysts looking at implication of this statement have zeroed in on some scenarios that the possible Israeli strike will take.

As there are no land borders between Israel and Iran the possibility of such an attack will most likely be launched by air. Israel could decide to respond in kind by missiles and Unarmed Air Vehicles (UAVs, also known as Drones) targeted at sensitive Iranian installations like air and army bases. It could also target refineries, arms production and headquarters of the Iranian defence and intelligence establishment, especially the elite Iranian Revolutionary Guards.

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Israel could also send squadrons of its air force to bomb targets deep in Iran. For this, the Israeli air force may opt to use land air bases in Cyprus or Azerbaijan. Israel could also request the United States to allow it use its aircraft Carrier stationed nearby in the gulf. There is also the option of using the huge US base in nearby Qatar.

For Israel to exact retribution on Iran it must be commensurate or even more that what Iran did with its recent strike. And I believe in their preparations for such, Prime Minister Netanyahu and Defence Minister Yoav Gallant would not rule out the nuclear option.

For Israel all of these scenarios are fraught with heavy implications.

Using air bases in both Cyprus and Azerbaijan will certainly be balked at by Erdogan’s Turkey. Both countries are deep sore points for Turkey and using any or both of them to attack Iran will draw serious reservations among the Turkish population. This is in addition to the unmanageable blowbacks that will likely follow the use of such option. Using this option also will not afford the Israeli planes the needed surprise element as mid-air refuelling and air manoeuvres on the way to bombing Iran will be picked up by radars.

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And in the unlikely case of some of the planes evading detection and dropping their payloads, they may not return safely back. Although much has been made about the stealth and radar evading capabilities of the American made F-35 stealth fighter planes which are in the inventories of the Israeli air force, it will not be beyond the capabilities of the Russians, Turks and even the Iranians to detect the movement of those planes at some point.

In planning an air invasion of Iran, the Israelis would certainly reflect on the incident in 1980 when American Delta Special Forces failed in their attempt to rescue American hostages held by the Iranians following the Iranian revolution. Some reports had it that it was the Soviets who tampered with the communications of the American Special Forces which in turn resulted in the helicopters carry the forces clashing against each other.

In the present scenario it will not be out of place to expect the Russians, Turks and Iranians who have assets in the vicinity to track the movement of Israeli planes towards Iran and proceed to thwart their mission.

Sending using agents in Iran to plant and detonate bombs in selected Iranian targets is something the Israelis have done before. But the commensurate damage in this regard would not match the scale of what Iran did to Israel. And the danger involved in such operations in terms of likely capture of the agents and malfunctioning of the devices could result in terrible consequences for Israel.

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Israel could also consider using nuclear bombs on Iran. But that will be suicidal. First the radiation effects could drift far beyond Iran and spread throughout the region endangering the population of other countries. Secondly if Israel does not have first strike nuclear capability to knockout Iran’s counter strike abilities then it will be a worthless effort. In such a scenario, Israel will be a target not only the Iranians but other countries in the region as well.

Let us face the reality; between Israel and Iran there is a state of mutually assured destruction. A war between both countries under the present circumstances would not be limited to them but would drag in other significant parties as well. Meir Dagan the former Chief of the Israel’s MOSSAD cautions that Israel should not contemplate going into a war with Iran alone. He wants the US and its allies to help Israel do the job. But Iran has warned that any US involvement would result in its assets in the region being legitimate targets for Iranian attacks.

That means the huge US base in Qatar and others in Saudi Arabia will come under attack from Iran. And there is a distinct possibility that the oil infrastructure in Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and other gulf states will be affected. Iran could also shut down the strategic straits of Hormuz through which about a third of global oil shipping passes through. All these will lead to an immediate spike in global oil prices resulting in serious negative consequences for the world economy.

Is there a way out of this looming quagmire?

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My take is that Saudi Arabia and other gulf states who stand in the line of fire will try to persuade Russia, China the US and other parties to prevail on Iran to allow Israel as a face saving measure ‘’avenge’’ the strike on it by Iran in a certain way agreed by all the parties. As arranged, Iran will refrain from retaliation.

And then there will be strident calls for restraint and de-escalation. And there will be secret negotiations between Iran and Israel brokered by Russian, US, China and Saudi Arabia. All issues like the Palestinian question, the Iran nuclear plans, guarantees of Israel’s security in the region and security of oil infrastructure will be on the table.

Similar diplomatic conclave has happened before during the 1973 war between Egypt and Syria on the one hand and Israel on the other. That war went to the brink of nuclear war as the Arab forces came to within a sight of defeating Israel with only option left was to use nuclear weapons on Egypt.

A deal was done whereby the US provided satellite images of the Egyptian army formations in the Sinai to the Israeli army to through a gap and surround the Egyptian army. This strategic manoeuvre resulted in a ceasefire and for secret negotiations to commence between Egypt and Israel leading to the historic Camp David Accords in 1977.

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The Iranians too are not new to this type of diplomatic manoeuvres. The hostilities that had existed between Iran and the US following the Iranian revolution did not deter both from negotiating secretly on the Iran-Contra deal.

In the present circumstances where the world is on the brink nobody would want a regional war in the Middle East as a trigger. Where the only alternative left is the devil’s alternative of a nuclear war, all the major parties involved certainly find a way to prevent it in view of the consequences.

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EU says it prefers negotiations, but proposes first tariffs on US imports

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The European Commission said on Monday it had offered a “zero-for-zero” tariff deal to avert a trade war with U.S. President Donald Trump as EU ministers agreed to prioritise negotiations, while striking back with 25% tariffs on some U.S. imports.

The 27-nation bloc faces 25% import tariffs on steel and aluminium and cars and broader tariffs of 20% from Wednesday for almost all other goods under Trump’s policy to hit countries he says impose high barriers to U.S. imports.

On Monday evening, the Commission proposed its first retaliatory tariffs at 25% on a range of U.S. imports in response to Trump’s steel and aluminium tariffs rather than the broader levies.

However, the list was shortened after the EU executive bowed to pressure from member states and removed bourbon, wine and dairy after Trump threatened a 200% counter-tariff on EU alcoholic drinks. France and Italy, major exporters of wine and spirits, were particularly concerned.

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EU trade chief Maros Sefcovic said earlier on Monday the retaliation would impact less than the previously announced 26 billion euros ($28.4 billion). The tariffs for most of the goods will go into effect May 16 and some from December 1.

Ministers overseeing trade met in Luxembourg on Monday to debate the EU’s response and discuss relations with China. Many said the priority was to launch negotiations to remove Trump’s tariffs, rather than fight them.
Michal Baranowski, deputy economy minister of Poland, told a press conference after the meeting that his EU counterparts did not want to be “trigger-happy”.

Sefcovic said discussions with Washington were at an early stage and that he had offered “zero-for-zero” tariffs for cars and other industrial products, expressing hope that discussions could begin.

However, Trump’s top trade adviser on Monday dismissed tech-billionaire Elon Musk’s push for “zero tariffs” between the U.S. and Europe, calling the Tesla CEO a “car assembler” reliant on parts from other countries.

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“While the EU remains open to – and strongly prefers – negotiation, we will not wait endlessly,” Sefcovic said, adding the bloc would push ahead with countermeasures and steps to avoid floods of diverted imports.

The EU is set to approve the first retaliatory measures this week. The bloc will start collecting the tariffs on April 15, with a second tranche starting a month later.

The removal of bourbon from the list of items subject to the EU’s retaliatory tariffs on U.S. imports “would be great news, and we are hopeful this is the case,” said Chris Swonger, chief executive of the Distilled Spirits Council of the United States. “It would be the first step toward getting the U.S.-EU spirits sectors back to zero-for-zero tariffs and untangling distilled spirits products from these wider trade disputes.”

EU KEEPS ALL RETALIATION OPTIONS OPEN

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The bloc is expected to produce a larger package of countermeasures by the end of April, as a response to U.S. car and broader tariffs.

Sefcovic said the EU was ready to consider all retaliatory options. One is the EU’s Anti-Coercion Instrument, which allows it to target U.S. services or to limit U.S. companies’ access to EU public procurement tenders.

“We are prepared to use every tool to protect (the) single market,” he said, echoing the views of French Trade Minister Laurent Saint-Martin.

In a war of tariffs on goods, Brussels has less to target than Washington, given EU goods imports from the U.S. totalled 334 billion euros ($366.2 billion) in 2024, against 532 billion euros of EU exports to the U.S.

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Some EU countries, particularly those exposed to trade with the United States, urged caution. Irish Foreign Minister Simon Harris described the Anti-Coercion Instrument as “very much the nuclear option.”

Baranowski of Poland said EU members were willing to keep options open, with a stress on proportionality.

“There were various ideas put on the table. Some countries mentioned services. Others didn’t. Some countries mentioned digital services, others didn’t,” he said.

Outgoing German Economy Minister Robert Habeck said the EU should realise it was in a strong position – if it was united.

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“The stock markets are already collapsing and the damage could become even greater … America is in a position of weakness,” he said in Luxembourg.

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British MPs return to London after Israel deportation

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Two Labour MPs say they are “astounded” to have been denied entry to Israel while on a trip to visit the occupied West Bank.

Abtisam Mohamed and Yuan Yang said it was “vital” parliamentarians were able to witness the situation in the occupied Palestinian territory first-hand.

They were refused entry because they intended to “spread hate speech” against Israel, the nation’s population and immigration authority said.

Foreign Secretary David Lammy criticised Israeli authorities, describing the move as “unacceptable, counterproductive, and deeply concerning”.

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But Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch said Israel had a right to “control its borders”, adding it was “significant” there were Labour MPs other countries did not want to let in.

Yang, the MP for Earley and Woodley, and Mohamed, the MP for Sheffield Central, flew to Israel from London Luton Airport with two aides on Saturday afternoon.

The Israeli immigration authority said Interior Minister Moshe Arbel denied entry to all four passengers after they were questioned. It accused them of travelling to “document the security forces”.

The Israeli embassy in London said in a statement on Saturday that the country “will not allow the entry of individuals or entities that act against the state and its citizens”.

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It said Mohamed and Yang had “accused Israel of false claims” and were “actively involved in promoting sanctions against Israeli ministers”.

It also said they had supported campaigns aimed at boycotting the country “at a time when Israel is at war and under attack on seven fronts”.

The UK Foreign Office said the group was part of a parliamentary delegation. However, Israel’s immigration authority said the delegation had not been acknowledged by an Israeli official.

The Israeli embassy said the MPs “were offered hotel accommodation, which they declined” and the cost of their return flight to the UK was covered.

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Israel’s Interior Ministry said the MPs left the country early on Sunday.

Mohamed and Yang said their trip had been organised with UK charities that had “over a decade of experience in taking parliamentary delegations”.

“We are two, out of scores of MPs, who have spoken out in Parliament in recent months on the Israel-Palestine conflict and the importance of complying with international humanitarian law,” the MPs said in a joint statement.

“Parliamentarians should feel free to speak truthful in the House of Commons, without fear of being targeted.”

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Lammy said the Foreign Office had been in touch with both MPs to offer support, adding: “I have made clear to my counterparts in the Israeli government that this is no way to treat British parliamentarians.”

The Council for Arab-British Understanding and Medical Aid for Palestinians – the latter of which is a registered UK charity – said in a joint statement that they had organised the trip.

“This visit was part of that long-standing programme,” they said.

“When questioned, the group was clear, open and transparent about the aims and objectives of the visit, which included visiting a range of projects run by humanitarian and development organisations operating in the West Bank.

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“The group had informed the UK consul general in Jerusalem of their visit and was planning to meet with them as part of the itinerary.”

Both Yang and Mohamed – who were first elected in 2024 – have made several interventions on the Israel-Hamas conflict in Parliament.

In February, Mohamed initiated a cross-party letter, signed by 61 MPs and lords, calling for a ban on goods from Israeli settlements on Palestinian territory, citing an opinion from the International Court of Justice (ICJ).

She has also criticised Israel for withholding humanitarian aid from Gaza, telling the House of Commons in October that international law “prohibits the starvation of civilians as a method of warfare”, and has mentioned humanitarian organisations’ claims of “ethnic cleansing” in Gaza.

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In January, Yang spoke in favour of bringing sanctions against Israeli ministers Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich, after they suggested building Israeli settlements in northern Gaza to encourage Palestinians to leave.

She has also highlighted the dangerous conditions journalists and medical professionals face while in the Palestinian territory.

When asked about Israel’s decision, Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch told the BBC’s Sunday with Laura Kuenssberg that countries “should be able to control their borders”.

“What I think is shocking is that we have MPs in Labour [who] other countries won’t allow through,” Badenoch said. “I think that’s very significant.”

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Her comments were rebuffed by Emily Thornberry, the Labour chair of the foreign affairs select committee, who described Yang and Mohamed as “highly respected parliamentarians” and “potential leaders”.

“Israel is badly advised to try and alienate them, to humiliate them and to treat them in this way,” she told the programme.

“I think that it’s an insult to Britain and I think it’s an insult to Parliament.”

Sir Ed Davey accused Badenoch of “yet another complete shocker”.

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The Liberal Democrat leader said she “has once again shown unbelievably poor judgement by failing to back two British MPs denied entry to Israel”.

Lammy called Badenoch’s comments “disgraceful”, asking her: “Do you say the same about Tory MPs banned from China?”

During the war in Gaza, there have been protests, violent incidents and raids by Israeli forces in the West Bank. Hundreds of deaths have been reported there.

Israeli troops have been engaged in an extended operation in the occupied Palestinian territory, where two Palestinians were killed on Friday.

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The current war began on 7 October 2023, when Hamas fighters launched a surprise attack on Israel, killing around 1,200 people and taking 251 hostages back to Gaza.

Since then, Gaza’s Hamas-run health ministry says more than 50,000 people have been killed. It said 1,309 people have died since a ceasefire ended on 18 March.

Lammy said: “The UK government’s focus remains securing a return to the ceasefire and negotiations to stop the bloodshed, free the hostages and end the conflict in Gaza.”

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US cancels visas for South Sudanese over deportation dispute

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US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has announced that the US is immediately revoking visas issued to all South Sudanese passport holders due to the African nation refusing to accept its citizens who have been removed from the US.

Rubio, in a statement on Saturday, added that the US will also block any arriving citizens of South Sudan, the world’s newest country, at US ports of entry.

He blamed “the failure of South Sudan’s transitional government to accept the return of its repatriated citizens in a timely manner”.

A cornerstone of President Donald Trump’s immigration policy is removing unlawful migrants from the US, with the promise of “mass deportations”.

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“It is time for the Transitional Government of South Sudan to stop taking advantage of the United States,” said Rubio.

“Every country must accept the return of its citizens in a timely manner when another country, including the United States, seeks to remove them,” he added.

It comes as fears grow that South Sudan may again descend into civil war.

On 8 March, the US ordered all its non-emergency staff in South Sudan to leave as regional fighting broke out, threatening a fragile peace deal agreed in 2018.

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South Sudanese in the US were previously granted Temporary Protected Status (TPS), which allows them to remain in the US for a set period of time.

TPS for South Sudanese in the US had been due to expire by 3 May.

South Sudan, the world’s newest nation, gained independence in 2011 after seceding from Sudan.

But just two years later, following a rift between President Salva Kiir and Vice-President Riek Machar, the tensions erupted into a civil war, in which more than 400,000 people were killed.

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A 2018 power-sharing agreement between the two stopped the fighting, but key elements of the deal have not been implemented – including a new constitution, an election and the reunification of armed groups into a single army.

Sporadic violence between ethnic and local groups has continued in parts of the country.

Since returning to office, the Trump administration has clashed with international governments over deportations of their nationals from the US.

In January, Colombian President Gustavo Petro barred two US military flights carrying deported migrants from landing in his South American country.

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Petro relented after Trump promised to place crippling tariffs and sanctions on Colombia.

One of the most famous South Sudanese citizens currently in the US is Duke University star basketball player 18-year-old Khaman Maluach.

A spokesman for the university said on Sunday the school is “aware of the announcement… regarding visa holders from South Sudan”.

“We are looking into the situation and working expeditiously to understand any implications for Duke students.”

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Maluach, who played for the South Sudanese Olympic basketball team last summer, spent much of his life in Uganda after fleeing his violence in his homeland as a child.

The first-year student – whose Duke team was eliminated from the national championship tournament Saturday night after losing in the semi-finals to the University of Houston – is widely expected to join the ranks of the NBA after graduation.

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