In another off-cycle election scheduled for Saturday, 16 November 2024, the people of Ondo State, across 18 local government areas, will return to the poll to elect their next governor.

The election, featuring candidates from 17 political parties, will determine the fate of incumbent Governor Lucky Aiyedatiwa and a former deputy governor of Ondo State, Agboola Ajayi.

Established on 3 February 1976, Ondo State has been led by at least 19 governors and administrators since then.

In the last governorship election, Rotimi Akeredolu of the All Progressives Congress (APC) won with 292,830 votes, while his closest rival, Eyitayo Jegede of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), came second with 195,791 votes.

According to the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), Ondo State has over 2.053 million registered voters, with 1.034 million males (50.36 percent) and 1.019 million females (49.64 percent). Among them, 726,944 (35.41 percent) are youths, and 721,982 (35.17 percent) are middle-aged. This contrasts with the 1,647,973 registered voters in 2020.

The significant increase in registered voters indicates the heightened interest of Ondo residents in the forthcoming election.

As the people of Ondo State prepare to choose their next governor, many believe several factors will shape the outcome of this highly anticipated election.

1. Division Among Akeredolu’s Supporters

Though the late Governor Rotimi Akeredolu has passed, his influence remains strong in Ondo State. Akeredolu, who served as governor from 2017 until his death on 27 December 2023 at age 67, was widely respected by the people.

Typically, Akeredolu’s supporters might be expected to back Governor Aiyedatiwa, the APC candidate, as Akeredolu won two terms under the party. However, Aiyedatiwa’s ability to secure their full support is uncertain.

Recently, the Akeredolu family, alongside ASEI Human Rights of Nigeria, publicly endorsed Otunba Bamidele Akingboye, the Social Democratic Party (SDP) candidate. This endorsement could sway many of Akeredolu’s loyal supporters, potentially impacting Aiyedatiwa’s prospects in the election.

2. Aiyedatiwa and Mimiko’s Alliance

The alliance between Governor Aiyedatiwa and former governor Olusegun Mimiko may play a significant role in the election.

Mimiko, the first governor to serve two terms in the state, holds considerable influence in Ondo’s political landscape.

The recent political collaboration between Aiyedatiwa (APC) and Mimiko (historically PDP-aligned) has sparked interest and discussions about its possible impact.

With support from Mimiko and his loyalists, Aiyedatiwa may gain an edge in the race to remain in Alagbaka Government House in Akure.

3. Influence of Candidates’ Strongholds

A candidate’s stronghold can heavily influence election outcomes, especially in historically high voter turnout regions.

In the previous Ondo State governorship election, voter participation varied across the candidates’ local governments, offering clues for the upcoming race. Last election data showed that Ilaje Local Government, where APC’s Governor Aiyedatiwa hails from, recorded 37,785 votes while Ese Odo Local Government, where PDP’s Ajayi comes from, had 18,063 votes.

Since Aiyedatiwa’s local government recorded the highest turnout among the two leading candidates, similar support could benefit him if those votes are cast in his favour. In addition, going by the last election results, the APC recorded a landslide victory in Ilaje, Ese-Odo, Odigbo, Okitipupa, and Owo local government areas. For the PDP, Akure South was a complete sweep, while the remaining LGAs had the margins within close cut for both parties.

4. Leading Candidates’ Profile

While 17 candidates are competing in the Ondo gubernatorial election, it is largely seen as a two-horse race between APC’s Lucky Aiyedatiwa, and PDP’s Agboola Ajayi.

Aiyedatiwa, currently serving as governor, is a businessman and politician from Obe-Nla, an oil-producing community in Ilaje Local Government Area. Running for a full term, his platform focuses on continuity, which could appeal to voters seeking stability in governance.

Meanwhile, Ajayi, a former deputy governor from Kiribo Town in Ese Odo Local Government, ran for governor in 2020 under the Zenith Labour Party (ZLP) and now represents the PDP. He positions himself as a candidate for economic transformation, appealing to voters seeking change.

5. Zoning Settlements

While Nigeria’s Constitution does not mandate rotation of governorship or other political roles, informal power-sharing arrangements are common across parties and states, including Ondo, to ensure equitable power distribution.

Ondo State is divided into three senatorial districts: Ondo North, Ondo South, and Ondo Central.

With the late Governor Akeredolu, who won two terms from Ondo North, voters may favour candidates from other districts. However, a Tribune Online check revealed that both leading candidates, Aiyedatiwa and Ajayi, are from Ondo South.

This geographic distribution could influence voting dynamics, with Aiyedatiwa and Ajayi potentially attracting voters who prefer rotational governance over candidates from the same senatorial district as the late Akeredolu.

6. Akeredolu’s Former Deputies Face-off

The fact that both Aiyedatiwa (APC) and Ajayi (PDP) previously served as deputies to the late Governor Akeredolu adds a unique dimension to the Ondo 2024 election.

Ajayi served as Akeredolu’s deputy from 2017 to 2021, while Aiyedatiwa held the position from 2021 until Akeredolu died in 2023.

While Aiyedatiwa maintained a positive relationship with Akeredolu, Ajayi’s relationship with the governor soured in 2020. On 21 June 2020, Ajayi left the APC for the PDP, citing irreconcilable differences with Akeredolu. After losing the PDP primary to Jegede, he joined the ZLP to challenge Akeredolu in the 2020 gubernatorial election.

The two candidates’ history with Akeredolu may affect the voting behaviour of Akeredolu’s loyalists, potentially shaping the election outcome.

7. Support from Jegede’s Followers

Eyitayo Jegede, the PDP candidate in the last governorship election, commands a loyal following, and his endorsement could help unify the party’s base, which has been fragmented since the previous election.

As a PDP leader in Ondo State, Jegede enjoined party members in May 2024 to rally behind Agboola Ajayi in the upcoming election.

This endorsement could consolidate the PDP’s voter base, appealing to Jegede’s loyal supporters who may have felt alienated by past party dynamics. Ultimately, Jegede’s support could increase Ajayi’s visibility and credibility, boosting his chances of securing a significant vote share.

8. Tinubu’s Re-election Ambitions

In the 2023 general election, President Bola Tinubu lost Lagos State to the Labour Party and Osun State to the PDP.

Although Tinubu won the 2023 presidential election, these losses in Southwestern states were seen as a blow to his political influence.

With the 2027 election approaching, Tinubu is keen on securing the majority of southwestern states to bolster his re-election bid.

Federal support from Tinubu and influence as the ruling party at the centre could provide Aiyedatiwa with a crucial advantage over other candidates in the upcoming election. However, the country’s current economic challenges, especially the rising cost of living occasioned by some policies of the current President Bola Ahmed Tinubu-led administration, could also be a factor in how the people of Ondo state decide at the poll.