By Kayode Sanni-Arewa

There is a raging concern that the Naira-for-Crude initiative, which ensures local refineries receive crude oil in Naira and sell refined products to marketers in the local currency, may be threatened over inadequate crude supply to domestic refiners, findings by Daily Trust have shown.

Daily Trust reports that President Bola Ahmed Tinubu had directed the sale of crude oil to Dangote in naira as part of move to bring down the cost of premium motor spirit (pms) otherwise known as petrol.

In October 2024, the Federal Executive Council (FEC) approved that 450,000 barrels intended for domestic consumption be offered in Naira to Nigerian refineries, with the Dangote Refinery acting as a pilot project.

Under the scheme which commenced in the first week of October 2024, the NNPCL was expected to supply 385,000 barrels of crude oil to the 650,000 bdp Dangote Refinery located in Ibeju-Lekki Lagos.

However, findings showed that there has been a consistent low supply of allocations to Dangote Refinery, forcing it to resort to importation.

Official documents reviewed by our correspondent revealed that while Nigeria’s crude oil production has marginally increased, exceeding 1.8mbpd, there has been a sharp decline in the volume of crude allocated to the Naira-for-Crude scheme.

The document revealed that for February 2025, the scheme has been allocated only four cargoes, and for March, just two cargoes totalling 950,000 barrels (1.9 million barrels in total for the month). This represents an allocation of 61,290 barrels per day – far below the 385,000 bpd target under the scheme.

The Dangote refinery is set to receive 12 million barrels of crude oil from the United States, as local supply constraints have hindered its bid to attain full refining capacity of 650,000 barrels per day.

Amidst this challenge, it was learnt that the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC) Limited and allied marketers continue importing petroleum products into the country, spending over N5 trillion on importing Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) and diesel (AGO) within 110 days.

An oil and gas expert in the public sector, who spoke on the condition of anonymity warned that the Naira-for-Crude initiative might be undermined and threatened the potential for improving energy security in Nigeria.

He emphasised that these products, paid for entirely in Naira, are crucial to the government’s efforts to stabilise and strengthen the currency.

“The refineries pay fully for these products at international rates, but in Naira. The Dangote Petroleum Refinery and other domestic refineries then sell to marketers in Naira, thus eliminating currency or forex risks and reducing reliance on the dollar for domestic transactions.

By aligning domestic transactions with Naira payments, the government is effectively reducing Nigeria’s dependency on the US dollar, particularly in the oil sector, where a large portion of Nigeria’s foreign reserves has traditionally been spent on oil imports,” he explained.

He added that, “undoubtedly, its success is a testament to the visionary leadership of President Bola Tinubu and the Federal Executive Council, who, despite persistent opposition, have ensured its successful implementation. This initiative, which is critical to Nigeria’s ongoing economic reforms, must not be derailed”.

Importation continues despite local refineries

According to the motor tanker vessels report from the Nigerian Ports Authority, a total of 2,846,499.41 metric tonnes of PMS and 791,619.00 metric tonnes of diesel were imported between October 1 and December 31, 2024.

In addition, a total of 342,199mts of PMS and 146,866mts of AGO were imported into the country between January 1 and 29, 2025.

This equates to the importation of over four billion (4,276,044,567.81) litres of PMS and over one billion (1,103,658,360) litres of diesel within 121 days, using a conversion factor of 1,341 litres per metric tonne for PMS and 1,176 litres per metric tonne for AGO.

At an average landing cost of N940 per litre for PMS and N920 per litre for AGO, Nigeria has spent over four trillion Naira (N4.019 trillion) importing petrol and over one trillion Naira (N1.015 trillion) on diesel imports during the period.

This continued importation despite the huge local refining capacity is targeted at crippling local refineries, especially the Dangote Petroleum Refinery, another source said.

Oil and gas expert, Dr. Ayodele Oni in a chat with our correspondent noted that despite improved crude oil production, the forward sale arrangements had made it difficult for the NNPC to fulfill obligations to the local refiners.

He stated that the divestment by the IOCs is also responsible for the challenge, saying there must be improved production to sustain the naira for crude scheme.

The expert however stated that it is strange that Nigeria continues to import so much despite the increased refining capacity through Dangote Refinery, Aradel, and the recently revived government-owned refineries.

A source at the Dangote Refinery who spoke on the condition of anonymity explained that in line with its commitment to serving Nigerians and keeping prices affordable, the refinery continues to sell products to marketers in Naira, while absorbing logistics costs to ensure uniform pricing across the country.

“The Refinery generously assumes equalisation status, which only the government does undertake. This has been met with enthusiasm by our partners, such as MRS, Heyden, and Ardova. The Petroleum Products Retail Outlet Owners Association has entered into an agreement with the refinery to distribute its PMS nationwide at a uniform price across all its filling stations,” he said.

The Chief Spokesperson of the NNPCL, Mr. Olufemi Soneye could not be reached for comment yesterday on the challenges in fulfilling the obligations to the local refiners. Calls and text messages to him were not answered as of the time of filing this report.