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BY BOLAJI AFOLABI

That Nigeria and South Africa have a long history of intertwined political and economic relationship is undisputable. That Nigeria played strategic and frontal role in the emancipation of the black-dominated country is real and true. That Nigeria was the arrow-head in the country’s long years of apartheid struggles and subsequent independence can not, never be obliterated. One recalls with nostalgia the humongous human, capital resources as well as the quantum, qualitative logistics and capacity building Nigeria contributed to the “rainbow country” and its nationals. For various lengths of time, leaders and citizens of South Africa including revered Bishop Desmond Tutu and former President Thabo Mbeki were residents of major cities in Nigeria at the expense of the Nigerian government. Back then, South Africans schooled at first generation Nigerian universities, notably those in Ibadan, Lagos and Zaria. Their younger countrymen were accommodated in our secondary schools and privileged the best of welcomes.

After the eventual liberation of South Africa, the body language of the rainbow country has tended to suggest ingratitude for Nigeria’s sweaty exertions and disrespect for our citizens. Xenophobic assaults targeted towards Nigerians in South Africa for example, are well documented. Same is the intentional frustration of Nigerians desirous of investing in the South African economy. Yet the story of South Africa cannot and can never be complete without glowing and golden references to Nigeria’s commanding support. Every caustic denunciation vis-a-vis scant and scarce admission of Nigeria’s historic role in the South African trajectory, is a dubious attempt to distort history.

South Africa in 1994, had a foretaste of civilian governance after the dismantling of several decades of colonial rule. The country operates a unitary parliamentary democratic system where the president serves both as Head of State, and Head of Government. Since 1994, the African National Congress, (ANC) has being in power, forming government at the centre courtesy of winning overwhelming majority seats at the National Assembly and Provincial Assembly elections. The ANC in succession has produced the past and present leaderships of the country. From the iconic Nelson Mandela, to the humility-personified Thabo Mbeki, the charismatic but controversial Jacob Zuma, and the incumbent Cyril Ramaphosa, the party has enjoyed near-total grip and control of governance for 30 years.

Many Nigerians recall May 29 as the birth date of Nigeria’s fourth republic. South Africans enthusiastically looked forward to the date as they voted new parliamentarians. More than 27 million citizens took part in the 2024 elections into the national and provincial legislatures as prelude towards electing the president of South Africa. Such a president will hold office for five years as provided for by the South African Constitution. To produce the president, a political party must win not just majority seats at the national assembly elections BUT meet or surpass the threshold of 201 out of the 400 seats in the parliament. The ANC, since 1994 had always met this criteria. For instance, in the last two elections in 2019 and 2014, the party won 230 and 249 seats respectively.

As the build-up to the 2024 elections began, there was a unanimity of opinion that the election will be different. There was general consensus that the ANC, under Ramaphosa has not met the yearnings and expectations of nationals. Like in Nigeria, many people alluded to alleged rising cases of poverty; disabling unemployment; pervading insecurity; incongruous corruption; unbridled insensitivity and systemic impunity. Vast majority of people concluded that the elections, unlike before would not be smooth-sailing for the ANC which in previous polls gallops to resounding victories.

As a student of political history, and chronicler of democratic development across the continent, the writer for several months devoted close attention to political developments in South Africa. Aside voraciously reading news and political events online, one devoted about three hours daily watching and monitoring news and political programmes on television stations in South Africa including the behemoth South African Broadcasting Corporation, (SABC), NewzRoom Afrika. Campaigns by all the major political parties were issue-based, intensive, and extensive. Unlike what happens in Nigeria, listening to respective parties leaders and members in the build up to the polls, one had explicit, concrete, almost graphic ideas about what each party stands for. Given the unpredictability of the elections, Ramaphosa; even as president was on the streets, combing nooks and crannies of South Africa soliciting for votes. The leadership and members of the other major and even minor parties did same.

Fact is, South Africa is ahead of Nigeria in political engineering, party politics, quest for political power, and national development. At every discourse, deliberations, and analysis by party faithful and apolitical citizens you notice sincere, objective, informed, and frank contributions. With no fear, apprehension of violent attacks by opponents, political parties engage in constructive criticisms by offering concrete alternatives on every issue. To a large extent, freedom of speech, expression of opinions, and canvassing different positions remains visible. To be sure, the SABC, a government-owned media organisation on May 28, a day before general elections made frank, courageous, and bold predictions that appeared not to favour the ruling party. In an audacious manner, the station, at one of its programmes projected that elections would be keenly contested; forecast the spread of votes and seats to be won, among others. Similarly, some analysts, commentators, and academics projected that the ANC was not likely to meet the threshold.

Sunday June 2nd, exactly four days after the 2024 general elections, history was made, records were broken. The country’s Independent Electoral Commission’s, (IEC) chairperson, Mosotho Moepya in his state-wide speech described it as “the most difficult and most keenly contested elections since the end of apartheid in 1994.” Contrary to the position of Zuma, MK party, and few other parties, Moepya declared the election as “free and fair.” Announcing results, Moepya said 18 political parties won seats into the National Assembly, including the major ones; African National Congress, (ANC) 159; Democratic Alliance, (DA) 87; uMKhonto weSizwe, (MK) 58; Economic Freedom Fighters, (EFF) 39; Inkatha Freedom Party, (IFP) 17; Patriotic Alliance, (PA) 9.

By the results, the pre-election prognosis, and projections by the SABC, opposition parties, informed minds, and many nationals, the ANC, for the first time since 1994 though won majority seats but failed to meet the threshold of 201. Having won 159 seats, 41 short of the magical number the party under Ramaphosa failed to maintain the ANC’s 30-year old unbroken dominance of the National Assembly. That ANC’s unchallenged grip of the parliament was finally broken did not come as surprise to many people, including opposition leaders and commentators. With the preponderance of economic challenges, lawless profligacy, socio-political statis, and growing disenchantment of the citizenry, and ANC’s unencouraging and unenthusiastic measures in positively changing the negative trend, many people foretold results of the general elections.

In a short address laced with jokes at the IEC’s results-declaration event, Ramaphosa agreed that “the results represents a victory for democracy, for the county’s constitutional order, and for all the people of South Africa.” As it is, the ANC will have to assemble a coalition with some parties, in the national assembly to form the next government. This must be done in over ten days when the national assembly will hold its first sitting and elect the country’s president for the next five years. This difficult situation it found itself would not have arisen but for the political disagreement that led to exit of Zuma from the ANC. That the Zuma-led MK party formed late 2023 was able to, in barely six months won 58 seats and finished third ahead of Julius Malema’s EFP exposed Ramaphosa’s inability to manage the crisis.

Also, it confirms Zuma’s credentials as a grassroot mobiliser, and strong political personality as demonstrated through his huge campaigns, reasonable followership, and encouraging results at the polls. Similarly, the performances of the major opposition parties which shows that party politics is growing in the country should be of serious concerns to the hegemony of the ANC. One strong discovery is the passion and commitment exhibited by “white South Africans” in this election. One can safely project that if sustained, one of them may emerge president in the not-too distant future even if “local South Africans” populate the national assembly.

While opposition parties in South Africa are clearly waxing stronger, the reverse is the case in Nigeria. The results of elections in the rainbow country is serious wake up call to the political elite in Nigeria. Unlike here where politicians break into smithereens, going back and forth, and around parties, the reverse is the case in South Africa. Through thick and tin, rain and sun members stay committed to their party’s ideologies and manifesto. Unless and until opposition parties wean themselves off inordinate ambition, selfishness, “i-myself-alone” mindset, narrow-minded perception, and selfish tendencies they cannot make headway in general elections. Sadly, with the next election few years away, any discerning and dispassionate mind can notice these challenges playing-up already. To dislodge the APC in 2027, opposition parties and leaders must consciously and deliberately shrug off these negatives and put the nation first. How they wriggle themselves out of these self-induced quagmire is left to be seen; can they do it? Time Will Tell!!

*Bolaji Afolabi, a Development Communications specialist was with the Pubic Affairs Office in The Presidency, Abuja.*