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SOUTH AFRICAN ELECTIONS AND LESSONS FOR NIGERIAN POLITICS

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BY BOLAJI AFOLABI

That Nigeria and South Africa have a long history of intertwined political and economic relationship is undisputable. That Nigeria played strategic and frontal role in the emancipation of the black-dominated country is real and true. That Nigeria was the arrow-head in the country’s long years of apartheid struggles and subsequent independence can not, never be obliterated. One recalls with nostalgia the humongous human, capital resources as well as the quantum, qualitative logistics and capacity building Nigeria contributed to the “rainbow country” and its nationals. For various lengths of time, leaders and citizens of South Africa including revered Bishop Desmond Tutu and former President Thabo Mbeki were residents of major cities in Nigeria at the expense of the Nigerian government. Back then, South Africans schooled at first generation Nigerian universities, notably those in Ibadan, Lagos and Zaria. Their younger countrymen were accommodated in our secondary schools and privileged the best of welcomes.

After the eventual liberation of South Africa, the body language of the rainbow country has tended to suggest ingratitude for Nigeria’s sweaty exertions and disrespect for our citizens. Xenophobic assaults targeted towards Nigerians in South Africa for example, are well documented. Same is the intentional frustration of Nigerians desirous of investing in the South African economy. Yet the story of South Africa cannot and can never be complete without glowing and golden references to Nigeria’s commanding support. Every caustic denunciation vis-a-vis scant and scarce admission of Nigeria’s historic role in the South African trajectory, is a dubious attempt to distort history.

South Africa in 1994, had a foretaste of civilian governance after the dismantling of several decades of colonial rule. The country operates a unitary parliamentary democratic system where the president serves both as Head of State, and Head of Government. Since 1994, the African National Congress, (ANC) has being in power, forming government at the centre courtesy of winning overwhelming majority seats at the National Assembly and Provincial Assembly elections. The ANC in succession has produced the past and present leaderships of the country. From the iconic Nelson Mandela, to the humility-personified Thabo Mbeki, the charismatic but controversial Jacob Zuma, and the incumbent Cyril Ramaphosa, the party has enjoyed near-total grip and control of governance for 30 years.

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Many Nigerians recall May 29 as the birth date of Nigeria’s fourth republic. South Africans enthusiastically looked forward to the date as they voted new parliamentarians. More than 27 million citizens took part in the 2024 elections into the national and provincial legislatures as prelude towards electing the president of South Africa. Such a president will hold office for five years as provided for by the South African Constitution. To produce the president, a political party must win not just majority seats at the national assembly elections BUT meet or surpass the threshold of 201 out of the 400 seats in the parliament. The ANC, since 1994 had always met this criteria. For instance, in the last two elections in 2019 and 2014, the party won 230 and 249 seats respectively.

As the build-up to the 2024 elections began, there was a unanimity of opinion that the election will be different. There was general consensus that the ANC, under Ramaphosa has not met the yearnings and expectations of nationals. Like in Nigeria, many people alluded to alleged rising cases of poverty; disabling unemployment; pervading insecurity; incongruous corruption; unbridled insensitivity and systemic impunity. Vast majority of people concluded that the elections, unlike before would not be smooth-sailing for the ANC which in previous polls gallops to resounding victories.

As a student of political history, and chronicler of democratic development across the continent, the writer for several months devoted close attention to political developments in South Africa. Aside voraciously reading news and political events online, one devoted about three hours daily watching and monitoring news and political programmes on television stations in South Africa including the behemoth South African Broadcasting Corporation, (SABC), NewzRoom Afrika. Campaigns by all the major political parties were issue-based, intensive, and extensive. Unlike what happens in Nigeria, listening to respective parties leaders and members in the build up to the polls, one had explicit, concrete, almost graphic ideas about what each party stands for. Given the unpredictability of the elections, Ramaphosa; even as president was on the streets, combing nooks and crannies of South Africa soliciting for votes. The leadership and members of the other major and even minor parties did same.

Fact is, South Africa is ahead of Nigeria in political engineering, party politics, quest for political power, and national development. At every discourse, deliberations, and analysis by party faithful and apolitical citizens you notice sincere, objective, informed, and frank contributions. With no fear, apprehension of violent attacks by opponents, political parties engage in constructive criticisms by offering concrete alternatives on every issue. To a large extent, freedom of speech, expression of opinions, and canvassing different positions remains visible. To be sure, the SABC, a government-owned media organisation on May 28, a day before general elections made frank, courageous, and bold predictions that appeared not to favour the ruling party. In an audacious manner, the station, at one of its programmes projected that elections would be keenly contested; forecast the spread of votes and seats to be won, among others. Similarly, some analysts, commentators, and academics projected that the ANC was not likely to meet the threshold.

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Sunday June 2nd, exactly four days after the 2024 general elections, history was made, records were broken. The country’s Independent Electoral Commission’s, (IEC) chairperson, Mosotho Moepya in his state-wide speech described it as “the most difficult and most keenly contested elections since the end of apartheid in 1994.” Contrary to the position of Zuma, MK party, and few other parties, Moepya declared the election as “free and fair.” Announcing results, Moepya said 18 political parties won seats into the National Assembly, including the major ones; African National Congress, (ANC) 159; Democratic Alliance, (DA) 87; uMKhonto weSizwe, (MK) 58; Economic Freedom Fighters, (EFF) 39; Inkatha Freedom Party, (IFP) 17; Patriotic Alliance, (PA) 9.

By the results, the pre-election prognosis, and projections by the SABC, opposition parties, informed minds, and many nationals, the ANC, for the first time since 1994 though won majority seats but failed to meet the threshold of 201. Having won 159 seats, 41 short of the magical number the party under Ramaphosa failed to maintain the ANC’s 30-year old unbroken dominance of the National Assembly. That ANC’s unchallenged grip of the parliament was finally broken did not come as surprise to many people, including opposition leaders and commentators. With the preponderance of economic challenges, lawless profligacy, socio-political statis, and growing disenchantment of the citizenry, and ANC’s unencouraging and unenthusiastic measures in positively changing the negative trend, many people foretold results of the general elections.

In a short address laced with jokes at the IEC’s results-declaration event, Ramaphosa agreed that “the results represents a victory for democracy, for the county’s constitutional order, and for all the people of South Africa.” As it is, the ANC will have to assemble a coalition with some parties, in the national assembly to form the next government. This must be done in over ten days when the national assembly will hold its first sitting and elect the country’s president for the next five years. This difficult situation it found itself would not have arisen but for the political disagreement that led to exit of Zuma from the ANC. That the Zuma-led MK party formed late 2023 was able to, in barely six months won 58 seats and finished third ahead of Julius Malema’s EFP exposed Ramaphosa’s inability to manage the crisis.

Also, it confirms Zuma’s credentials as a grassroot mobiliser, and strong political personality as demonstrated through his huge campaigns, reasonable followership, and encouraging results at the polls. Similarly, the performances of the major opposition parties which shows that party politics is growing in the country should be of serious concerns to the hegemony of the ANC. One strong discovery is the passion and commitment exhibited by “white South Africans” in this election. One can safely project that if sustained, one of them may emerge president in the not-too distant future even if “local South Africans” populate the national assembly.

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While opposition parties in South Africa are clearly waxing stronger, the reverse is the case in Nigeria. The results of elections in the rainbow country is serious wake up call to the political elite in Nigeria. Unlike here where politicians break into smithereens, going back and forth, and around parties, the reverse is the case in South Africa. Through thick and tin, rain and sun members stay committed to their party’s ideologies and manifesto. Unless and until opposition parties wean themselves off inordinate ambition, selfishness, “i-myself-alone” mindset, narrow-minded perception, and selfish tendencies they cannot make headway in general elections. Sadly, with the next election few years away, any discerning and dispassionate mind can notice these challenges playing-up already. To dislodge the APC in 2027, opposition parties and leaders must consciously and deliberately shrug off these negatives and put the nation first. How they wriggle themselves out of these self-induced quagmire is left to be seen; can they do it? Time Will Tell!!

*Bolaji Afolabi, a Development Communications specialist was with the Pubic Affairs Office in The Presidency, Abuja.*

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FCTA Threatens Sanctions Against Hotels, Event Centres Hosting Illegal Groups

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By Gloria Ikibah

The Federal Capital Territory Administration (FCTA) has warned owners of hotels, event centres and other public facilities in Abuja against allowing their premises to be used by unlawful organisations, declaring that violators risk losing their land titles.

The warning was contained in a statement issued on Friday by Lere Olayinka, Senior Special Assistant on Public Communications and Social Media to the Minister of the FCT, Nyesom Wike.

According to the administration, land allocations within the FCT are meant strictly for lawful activities, stressing that authorities would no longer tolerate the use of public facilities for gatherings linked to illegal groups.

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The statement read: “In view of the need to further ensure the security of lives and properties in the FCT and sustain the efforts of security agencies in this regard, usage of Event Centres, Hotels and other public buildings will now be closely monitored.

“This is aimed at ensuring that they are not used by illegal organizations for gatherings capable of disrupting the peace of the nation’s capital.”

The FCTA also directed owners and operators of such facilities to properly verify the identities and legitimacy of organisations seeking to rent their venues before approving bookings.

“Owners of these facilities are therefore urged to take cognizance of the legality of organizations seeking to use their facilities and the purpose before letting them out,” the statement added.

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The administration further warned that political activities in the build-up to elections must only involve recognised party leadership approved by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC).

“For instance, in this political season, owners of Event Centres and Hotels in particular must ensure that they only deal with Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) recognised leadership of political parties in respect of the use of their facilities, and proper records of transactions must be kept.

“Failure to comply with this directive will result to revocation of the title documents such properties,” the statement further read.

The FCTA maintained that failure to comply with the directive will attract severe consequences.

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Ebola Alert! FG flags 21 states on lockdown watch, Lagos, FCT, Rivers, Akwa Ibom, Borno, others in high risk zones

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The Nigeria Centre for Disease Control and Prevention (NCDC) has placed several states on high Ebola preparedness alert after a fresh risk assessment classified Nigeria’s chances of importing the deadly disease as high amid regional outbreaks.

Dr Jide Idris, Director-General of the NCDC said this in a Thursday statement, stressing that Nigeria had not yet recorded any confirmed Ebola Virus Disease case linked to the outbreak.

He explained that the World Health Organization’s Public Health Emergency of International Concern declaration and increasing Ebola cases in the Democratic Republic of Congo and Uganda required intensified surveillance and preparedness activities across Nigeria immediately.

Idris stated that the NCDC conducted a dynamic risk assessment to guide anticipatory and response measures, concluding that Nigeria faced a high Ebola importation risk because of international travel and regional population movement.

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He added that uncertainty surrounding the outbreak’s magnitude and the possibility of delayed recognition were heightened because Ebola symptoms closely resembled common endemic diseases such as malaria and Lassa fever in Nigeria.

According to him, all states and the Federal Capital Territory must maintain Ebola preparedness, although readiness efforts should reflect varying importation and transmission risks identified through the NCDC’s recently developed preparedness classification system.

The agency categorised Lagos, the FCT, Rivers, Kano, Enugu, Borno, Akwa Ibom, Cross River, Taraba, and Adamawa as high-risk states because of international airports, porous borders, and active trade or travel routes.

Idris also identified Ogun, Nasarawa, Kaduna, Plateau, Kogi, Niger, Jigawa, Katsina, Bauchi, Ebonyi, Abia, and Bayelsa as moderate-risk states requiring sustained preparedness efforts against possible Ebola importation and transmission threats.

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He said that the WHO declaration underscored the seriousness of the regional threat and highlighted the urgent need for Nigeria to strengthen preparedness measures before detecting any suspected Ebola case domestically.

The NCDC boss explained that national preparedness efforts aimed to ensure every state and the FCT could quickly detect, contain, and respond to suspected Ebola cases while protecting health workers and sustaining healthcare services.

Idris reiterated that Nigeria currently had no confirmed Ebola case linked to the outbreak but warned that increasing regional transmission significantly elevated the country’s importation risk because of population movement and extensive travel networks.

He explained that airports, seaports, porous land borders, informal crossings, trade routes, and overlapping Ebola symptoms with malaria and Lassa fever increased the likelihood of delayed recognition and possible disease spread nationally.

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According to him, health authorities in the Democratic Republic of Congo and Uganda had reported 1,077 suspected Ebola cases and 247 deaths, while people aged between 14 and 45 years remained most affected.

He said the outbreak’s case fatality rate stood at 24.6 percent, while both regional and national Ebola risks remained high because of continuing transmission and the absence of approved vaccines for the outbreak sstrain.l

Idris stressed that no approved vaccines or specific treatments currently existed for Bundibugyo Ebola virus disease, making rapid public health interventions critical for containing infections and preventing widespread transmission across vulnerable communities.

He explained that outbreak control depended largely on early detection, prompt isolation of suspected and confirmed cases, strict infection prevention measures, effective contact tracing, safe burials, community engagement, and strong surveillance systems nationwide.

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The NCDC Director-General disclosed that suspected Ebola cases had also been reported in India, while Canada suspended travel applications from residents of the DRC, Uganda, and South Sudan because of the outbreak situation.

He added that Uganda recently announced border closure measures, while Nigeria faced significant implications because the current Bundibugyo Ebola virus outbreak lacked licensed vaccines or approved targeted therapeutics for treatment and prevention.

According to him, existing Ebola vaccines and monoclonal antibody treatments primarily targeted the Zaire ebolavirus strain and should not be relied upon as effective countermeasures against the current Bundibugyo outbreak affecting neighbouring ccountries.l

Idris clarified that Ebola Virus Disease was not airborne, explaining that transmission occurred through direct contact with blood, body fluids, contaminated materials, or infected animals associated with symptomatic or deceased infected persons.

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He said the Ebola incubation period ranged from two to 21 days, making recent travel and exposure history within the preceding three weeks essential when assessing any suspected infection or potential outbreak case.

According to him, early Ebola symptoms often appeared non-specific and included fever, fatigue, muscle pain, headache, sore throat, vomiting, diarrhoea, abdominal pain, rash, hiccups, unexplained bleeding, bruising, and signs of shock.

Idris warned health workers against waiting for bleeding before suspecting Ebola in patients presenting compatible symptoms alongside relevant travel or exposure histories connected to affected countries experiencing active transmission of the vvirus.l

He added that the absence of strain-specific vaccines and approved therapeutics for Bundibugyo Ebola virus disease made early, aggressive, and optimised supportive care especially important in improving patient survival and treatment outcomes significantly.

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The NCDC boss explained that clinical management should include rapid assessment, fluid and electrolyte management, glucose monitoring, treatment of malaria or bacterial co-infections, symptom control, shock management, and humane care in isolation facilities.

He disclosed that the NCDC had activated its national Emergency Operations Centre, currently operating in alert mode while coordinating preparedness activities with relevant federal and state institutions across the country to strengthen response capacity.

According to him, state governments and Commissioners for Health must ensure immediate operational readiness across public and private health systems to effectively manage any suspected Ebola case and prevent possible widespread community transmission.

Idris emphasised that preparedness measures should prioritise early detection, immediate isolation, supportive care, infection prevention and control, safe sample handling, contact tracing readiness, referral systems, workforce protection, and adequate medical countermeasures nationwide.

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He urged commissioners to provide leadership for coordinated Ebola readiness efforts across their respective states and the Federal Capital Territory, assuring them of continued technical guidance and national coordination support from the NCDC.

The Director-General also requested commissioners to activate state public health coordination structures for Ebola preparedness and conduct rapid risk assessments focusing on population movement, high-density settings, and facilities receiving suspected cases.

He further advised states to engage public and private healthcare providers to ensure early suspicion, safe separation of suspected cases, immediate reporting through approved channels, and identification of functional isolation or holding facilities.

Idris stressed the importance of strengthening facility readiness for screening, infection prevention, ambulance transfers, safe sample movement, decontamination, and waste management while ensuring frontline workers received adequate protection and psychosocial support during operations.

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He also urged intensified traveller monitoring and surveillance in states with airports, seaports, transport hubs, land borders, and migrant corridors while encouraging calm public communication to discourage stigma and promote verified information sharing.

The NCDC boss directed states to maintain essential health services without disruption and submit readiness updates within seventy-two hours while immediately reporting suspected cases, high-risk exposures, unusual febrile clusters, or major preparedness gaps.

(Credit: NAN)

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JUST IN: Trouble looming as North Central APC Group Wants Nat’l Chairman,Yilwada to Resign 

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Trouble seems to be looming as the North-Central Forum of the All Progressives Congress (APC) has called on the party’s National Chairman, Prof. Nentawe Yilwatda, to resign within two weeks over allegations of irregularities and monetization of the party’s recently concluded primary elections.

The group accused the Yilwatda-led National Working Committee (NWC) of mishandling the State Assembly, National Assembly, governorship and presidential primaries, claiming that the process was manipulated in favour of preferred aspirants.

In a statement issued on Friday by the Forum’s National Chairman, Alhaji Saleh Zazzaga, the group alleged that results were altered to favour candidates loyal to party officials, while some aspirants who appeared likely to win were screened out of the contests.

According to the Forum, concerns had earlier been raised during the primaries over what it described as the “commercialization” of the exercise. It added that more than half of APC members were dissatisfied with the conduct of the elections.

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The group insisted that members of the NWC should be held accountable for allegedly violating the party’s constitution and guidelines.

“We are issuing a two-week ultimatum to the national chairman to resign because of incompetence, violation of the party’s constitution, monetization of the just concluded party primaries and changing the results when it favoured those perceived as not in his camp,” the statement said.

The Forum further alleged that party officials manipulated outcomes of the primaries across the country using their positions within the party structure.

As part of its claims, the group pointed to controversies surrounding the APC presidential primary election results announced by the Chairman of the Presidential Primary Election Committee, former Senate President Pius Anyim.

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Anyim had declared President Bola Tinubu winner of the presidential primary with 10,999,162 votes, while his challenger, Stanley Osifo, secured 16,503 votes.

However, the figures have since generated public debate following allegations that the numbers were inflated.

The North-Central APC Forum argued that the results did not correspond with the party’s official membership data.

“The party has eight million registered voters but when they released the result of Mr President in the presidential primary they wrote more than 10 million votes,” the statement said.

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“The guidelines stated that only those that are registered are going to vote. So this means that, all over the country, what they did was selection of candidates, not election.”

The Forum also lamented that the controversies surrounding the primaries had weakened the ruling party, leading to defections by aggrieved members.

It cited the resignation of former Deputy Senate President Ovie Omo-Agege from the APC after losing the Delta Central senatorial primary. Omo-Agege has since joined the Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC), where he was reportedly granted a waiver to contest the election.

The group also referenced the defection of Mustapha Bala Dawaki, a former Chief of Staff to the APC national chairman, who left the party after losing the Dawakin Kudu/Warawa Constituency return ticket in Kano State.

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According to the Forum, Dawaki’s resignation further highlighted growing dissatisfaction within the party ranks.

The Forum warned that it would institute legal action against Yilwatda if he failed to resign before June 12, Nigeria’s Democracy Day.

“It is because of these infractions that we are asking the national chairman to resign before two weeks, or we will sue him to court,” the statement added.

The group also faulted the party leadership for allegedly deploying inexperienced officials to supervise the primaries in several states, which it said contributed to the crisis currently rocking the APC.

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