Economy
Naira Falls Against Dollar Despite Renewed CBN Actions
The Nigerian naira experienced a mixed performance on October 25, 2024, with a slight depreciation in the parallel market and a notable gain in the official market. The currency weakened by 0.12% against the US dollar, trading at N1,730/$1 in the parallel market—a marginal decline of N2 from the previous rate of N1,728.
This marks the second consecutive day of depreciation following a 0.58% appreciation on October 23, when the naira was valued at N1,725/$1. Meanwhile, in the Investors and Exporters (I&E) window, the naira reversed a threeday depreciation streak, closing at N1,601.20/$1, a 3.30% improvement from the prior close of N1,654.09.
Since October 15, the naira has consistently traded above the N1,600 threshold in the official market. The gap between the parallel market rate and the official rate has widened significantly, increasing to N128.80, up from the previous day’s difference of N73.91. Additionally, data from the Nigeria Association of Financial Markets Institutions (NAFEM) revealed a 69% surge in foreign exchange transactions, totalling $230.99 million, compared to $136.68 million previously.
CBN Reserves and Policy Measures
The Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN) external reserves saw a 0.188% rise to $39.230 billion on October 22, 2024, marking the ninth consecutive day of growth. Recent CBN policies, including interest rate hikes aimed at curbing inflation and stabilising the economy, appear to be stabilising the domestic currency. The CBN has also cleared backlogs of foreign exchange obligations, including payments to airlines.
Market Trends
Throughout 2024, the naira has faced sustained depreciation, losing over 50% of its value since the beginning of the year in the official market. In January, the currency traded at N838.95/$1 and breached the N1,500/$1 mark in February. A brief rally in March saw it recover to N1,300.43/$1, before reaching a record low of N1,660.5/$1 in October.
In the parallel market, the naira started the year at N1,215 per dollar, reaching an alltime low of N1,880 in February before recovering to N1,110 in April. However, it has since resumed a downward trajectory, recently dipping into the N1,700 range.
Key Data Points
On October 24, 2024, the naira traded as high as N1,696 per dollar and as low as N1,585.43/$1, reflecting a disparity of N110.57 before settling at N1,601.20 in the I&E window.
By October 25, the naira traded at N1,730 per dollar in the parallel market, indicating a slight 0.12% decline from the previous day’s rate of N1,728.
In the I&E window, the currency closed at N1,601.20/$1, demonstrating a 3.30% improvement from the prior close of N1,654.09.
Trading volumes in the I&E window surged, reaching $230.99 million compared to $136.68 million the day before, highlighting increased market activity and dollar demand.
Key Factors at Play
During a recent press briefing at the ongoing World Bank/IMF meetings, the newly launched Global Financial Stability Report underscored signs of stability in the Nigerian naira, largely attributed to recent CBN policies. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) noted that the naira’s steadiness results from actions taken by the CBN, including clearing the foreign exchange backlog and raising interest rates.
The report indicated that these policy measures have led to positive developments, contributing to the naira’s improved stability.
What to Expect
With the naira recently breaching the N1,700/$1 mark, there is potential for a shortterm recovery. Global oil prices have stabilised between $79 and $81 per barrel, and the CBN’s consistent interventions may alleviate some inflationary pressures, fostering a more positive outlook for the naira. Additionally, new policies aimed at reducing foreign exchange demand could further support the currency, potentially bringing it back into the N1,600/$1 range in the near term.
Notably, the official exchange rate closed at N1,601.20 on October 25, following the CBN’s $60 million intervention in the official market on October 17, when dollars were sold to deposit banks at N1,540.
Nevertheless, the naira’s trajectory will remain closely tied to broader macroeconomic factors, including inflationary pressures and foreign currency supply. As Nigeria navigates these challenges, the effectiveness of policy responses will be crucial in determining whether the naira stabilises or faces further depreciation.
Economy
Nigerian Airline Operators Issue 7-Day Ultimatum Over Jet Fuel Crisis, Warn Of Flight Shutdown
Nigeria’s aviation industry is staring at a possible collapse within days as airline operators warn that flight operations may grind to a halt nationwide if the federal government fails to urgently intervene in the escalating aviation fuel crisis.
Operators under the Airline Operators of Nigeria (AON) say the cost of Jet A1 has reached “unsustainable” levels, with prices reportedly surging by as much as 250 percent in Nigeria, far above global increases estimated at about 70 percent.
Industry players say the distortion is pushing airlines to the brink, with operating costs now heavily dollarised while access to credit remains trapped in a high-interest environment reportedly ranging between 30 and 35 percent.
Air Peace Chairman Allen Onyema warned after a tense industry meeting that carriers may have no choice but to suspend operations if nothing changes within seven days.
“We are being pushed to the wall. At these levels, no airline can continue to operate sustainably,” Onyema said, adding that carriers may be forced to ground operations if no solution emerges within days.
Onyema said Nigerian airlines are under severe pressure due to a sharp rise in aviation fuel prices, which he argued is disproportionately higher than global trends following the U.S.–Iran conflict.
He explained that while aviation fuel prices typically move in line with crude oil increases, Nigeria has recorded a surge of about 250 to 270 percent, compared to roughly 70 percent in other countries, including elsewhere in Africa.
Onyema said the situation is making airline operations unsustainable and has pushed operators to the brink, prompting urgent discussions between government officials, airline operators, and fuel marketers to find a resolution.
“We have deliberated extensively today, and they have also shared their pain points. We have also shared ours. We are going to go back and wait for the outcome of their deliberations with the regulators,” he said.
“When they do that, we expect that within the next 48 hours, something drastic will be done, because no airline in this country will be able to fly within the next seven days if nothing is done.
“Not because airlines do not want to fly, but because the pricing, not only of our tickets but also of the fuel products we need to operate, may become unsustainable.
“We are already operating under heavy financial pressure, borrowing at 30 to 35 percent interest just to stay afloat, and we cannot continue to spend all our revenue on fuel alone.”
“The good news, as we observed yesterday, is that the President is listening, and this is very encouraging for us. We are hopeful. The country should also be hopeful, because the President, even while we were there, made a call to the honourable minister,” he added.
The warning comes amid a worsening standoff between airlines, petroleum marketers, and regulators over pricing mechanisms for aviation fuel, which operators insist has become artificially inflated through inefficiencies and market manipulation.
A crucial meeting convened by the Minister of Aviation and Aerospace Development, Festus Keyamo (SAN), ended in deadlock, with no agreement reached on how to immediately crash or stabilise Jet A1 prices.
Keyamo admitted after the closed-door session that the crisis was threatening the survival of domestic airlines, adding that discussions would continue for 48 to 72 hours in search of a compromise.
He also acknowledged that airlines may be forced to increase ticket prices further if the situation persists, a development that could push air travel beyond the reach of ordinary Nigerians already battling inflation and a weakened currency.
Despite the stalemate, the minister said the meeting was held with presidential backing, noting that President Bola Tinubu had been briefed and was monitoring developments closely.
Operators, however, remain unconvinced, insisting that repeated assurances without concrete price relief will not prevent what they describe as an imminent aviation shutdown.
The Nigerian Naira displayed a slight softening against the US Dollar in the early trading hours of Thursday, April 23, 2026, across both the official and parallel foreign exchange markets. Financial analysts are keeping a close eye on the market as mid-week demand for the greenback continues to influence rate stability.
In the Nigerian Foreign Exchange Market (NFEM), the Naira opened the trading day with a modest depreciation.
According to real-time data from the FMDQ Securities Exchange, the Naira is currently trading at an average of 1,351.59 NGN per 1 USD. This represents a marginal decline compared to the opening rates observed earlier in the week, where the currency had seen support near the 1,347 NGN level.
Market turnover at the official window remains a key point of focus for investors, as the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) maintains its policy of managed float to curb excessive volatility while ensuring essential sectors have access to foreign currency.
Parallel Market Trends
The informal or parallel market continues to trade at a significant premium compared to the official rate. Early morning reports from Bureau De Change (BDC) operators in major hubs such as Lagos (Ikeja and Broad Street), Abuja (Wuse Zone 4), and Kano suggest that the Dollar is being exchanged at rates ranging between 1,465 NGN and 1,480 NGN.
The spread between the NFEM and the parallel market currently sits at approximately 113 Naira, a gap that experts attribute to the unmet demand from small-scale importers and individuals seeking personal travel allowances (PTA) who often find the official channels more stringent.
Economic Factors and Outlook
The current pressure on the Naira is largely attributed to sustained demand for the Dollar to fund international trade obligations and service foreign debt. Additionally, the recent fluctuations in global oil prices—Nigeria’s primary source of foreign exchange—continue to dictate the strength of the nation’s external reserves.
As the trading session progresses into the afternoon, participants expect the rate to stabilize, though any significant intervention from the apex bank or shifts in market liquidity could alter the closing figures for the day. Market watchers are advised to monitor official closing reports for a comprehensive view of the day’s performance.
The Federation Account Allocation Committee (FAAC), has shared N2.036 trillion among the Federal Government, states and the Local Government Councils (LGCs).
The revenue was shared at the April meeting of FAAC in Abuja.
The N2.036 trillion total distributable revenue comprised statutory revenue of N1.320 trillion, Value Added Tax (VAT) revenue of N515.391 billion and Agumentation of N200 billion.
A communiqué issued by FAAC indicated that total gross revenue of N2.364 trillion was available in the month of March.
It said that total deduction for cost of collection was N81.084 billion, while total transfers, refunds and savings was N246.872 billion and Agumentation of N200 billion.
The communiqué said gross statutory revenue of N1.699 trillion was received for the month of March 2026.
This is higher than the sum of N1.561 trillion received in the preceding month by N137.914 billion.
“Gross revenue of N664.425 billion was available from VAT in March 2026.
“This was lower than the N668.450 billion available in the month of February 2026 by N4.025 billion,” it said.
The communiqué said from the N2.036 trillion total distributable revenue, the Federal Government received total sum of N789.159 billion and the state governments received total sum of N657.596 billion.
It said that the LGs received N468.826 billion, while the sum of N120.759 billion (13 per cent of mineral revenue) was shared to the benefiting State as derivation revenue.
“On the N1.320 trillion distributable statutory revenue, the Federal Government received N632.260 billion and the state governments received N320.691 billion.
“The LGs received N247.239 billion and the sum of N120.759 billion (13 per cent of mineral revenue) was shared to the benefiting States as derivation revenue,” it said.
It said that from the N515.391 billion distributable VAT revenue, the Federal Government received N51.539 billion, the state governments received N283.465 billion and the LGs received N180.387 billion.
It said that from the N200 billion Augmentation, the Federal Government received N105.360 big government received N53.440 billion, and the LGs received N41.200 billion.
It said that in March, Companies income Tax (CIT), CGT, SDT and Excise Duty increased significantly.
It said that Petroleum Profit Tax (PPT), Hydrocarbon Tax (HT), Oil and Gas Royalty, Import Duty and CET decreased considerably, while VAT decreased marginally.
(NAN)
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