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The Nigerian Communications Commission approved a 50 per cent increase in call tariffs on Monday, which may raise the average cost of calls to N16.5 per minute.

Based on the 2023 national telephone traffic data, this hike could generate over N6.74tn in revenue for telecom operators in 2025 if call volumes remain stable, hence Nigerians may pay this amount to the firms.

However, this projection excludes the impact of free and discounted call promotions, which may alter actual revenue figures.

An analysis of data from the latest 2023 Subscriber/Network Performance Report by the NCC showed that in 2023, total outgoing telephone traffic was 205.3 billion minutes, while incoming traffic stood at 203.2 billion minutes.

The report read, “As of December 2023 total outgoing Local and National Traffic was 205,298,114,995.11 minutes while Total incoming Local and National Traffic was 203,187,588,876.00 minutes. MTN had the highest total outgoing and incoming Traffic of 122,667,600,437.00 and 123,762,501,615.00 minutes respectively in 2023.”

This implies that Nigerians spent about 408.5 billion minutes making local calls in 2023.

Since there was no fresh data yet for 2024, our analysis was based on the available data for 2023, which might vary for 2025.

Our analysis also excluded international calls, although Nigerians spent 1.5 billion minutes on international calls in 2023, according to the NCC.

Further analysis showed that MTN led the market, recording 122.7 billion minutes of outgoing traffic and 123.8 billion minutes of incoming traffic.

At the new rate of N16.5 per minute, MTN’s combined revenue from outgoing and incoming calls is projected to exceed N4tn, making it the primary beneficiary of the tariff adjustment and accounting for over 60 per cent of the market’s total revenue.

Airtel is expected to follow with a projected revenue of approximately N1.78tn, reflecting its strong share of both outgoing and incoming traffic.

Glo, the third-largest operator, is estimated to generate N536.2bn.

Smaller players, including Smile and Ntel, are expected to earn N5.7bn and N13.1bn respectively, affirming their minimal market influence.

9mobile (EMTS) is likely to generate about N105.6bn from its traffic volumes.

The projected N6.74tn revenue highlights the significant impact of the tariff increase.

Outgoing calls alone are expected to bring in N3.28tn, while incoming calls will contribute an estimated N3.23tn.

Despite the growing popularity of data services and over-the-top messaging platforms, voice calls remain a significant revenue driver for telecom operators.

MTN’s dominance in outgoing and incoming traffic reinforces its leadership position, with Airtel and Glo following as major contributors.

In contrast, smaller operators continue to face challenges, with limited market penetration and a smaller customer base impacting their revenue potential.

The PUNCH further observed that the 50 per cent tariff hike approved by the NCC will likely raise the average cost of an SMS to N6, and significantly boost revenue for telecom operators in Nigeria.

Based on the 2023 SMS traffic data, the projected earnings for 2025 could surpass N137.84bn, assuming traffic remains unchanged.

According to the NCC’s 2023 annual report, a total of 22.97 billion SMS were sent and received during the year, representing an 11.38 per cent decline from the 25.92 billion recorded in 2022.

MTN accounted for the highest SMS traffic, with 8.21 billion sent messages and 8.57 billion received, bringing its total to 16.79 billion SMS.

With the revised tariff of N6 per SMS, MTN is expected to earn approximately N100.72bn, making it the likely largest beneficiary of the hike.

The telecom giant’s share of SMS traffic represents over 73 per cent of the total market, securing its position as the dominant player in the sector.

Airtel is projected to generate N26.26bn in revenue from its total SMS traffic of 4.38 billion, comprising 2.01 billion sent messages and 2.37 billion received.

This accounts for 19 per cent of the projected industry-wide earnings. Glo, with a total SMS count of 1.35 billion, is expected to earn N8.10bn, representing 5.88 per cent of the total revenue.

Meanwhile, smaller operators such as EMTS and Smile are likely to see modest revenues.

EMTS, with 458 million SMS, is projected to earn N2.75bn, while Smile, which recorded just 1.2 million SMS, is expected to generate N7.36m.

Combined, these smaller players contribute less than two per cent of the total projected revenue for 2025.

The telecom industry is projected to earn N137.84bn from SMS in 2025, driven by the tariff hike.

However, the new pricing may affect consumer behaviour, as more Nigerians may shift towards over-the-top messaging platforms such as WhatsApp and Telegram, which offer cost-free alternatives.

The Nigerian Communications Commission approved a 50 per cent tariff adjustment for telecommunications operators in response to increasing operational costs and prevailing market conditions.

According to a statement made on Monday by the NCC’s Director of Public Affairs, Reuben Muoka, the decision was made under the NCC’s regulatory powers as stipulated in Section 108 of the Nigerian Communications Act, 2003.

The approved adjustment falls significantly below the over 100 per cent increase initially requested by some network operators.

The NCC stated that the decision was carefully calibrated to balance the rising costs faced by operators with the need to protect consumers from excessive price hikes.

The adjustment will adhere strictly to the tariff bands outlined in the NCC’s 2013 Cost Study and the newly issued Guidance on Tariff Simplification, 2024.

The statement read, “The Nigerian Communications Commission, pursuant to its power under Section 108 of the Nigerian Communications Act, 2003 to regulate and approve tariff rates and charges by telecommunications operators, will be granting approval for tariff adjustment requests by Network Operators in response to prevailing market conditions.

“The adjustment, capped at a maximum of 50 per cent of current tariffs, though lower than the over 100 per cent requested by some network operators, was arrived at taking into account ongoing industry reforms that will positively influence sustainability.

“These adjustments will remain within the tariff bands stipulated in the 2013 NCC Cost Study, and requests will be reviewed on a case-by-case basis as is the Commission’s standard practice for tariff reviews. It will be implemented in strict adherence to the recently issued NCC Guidance on Tariff Simplification, 2024.”

According to the commission, tariff rates have remained static since 2013, despite inflation and rising operational costs that have strained the telecommunications industry.

The adjustment is expected to address this gap, enabling operators to invest in infrastructure and innovation while maintaining the quality of services provided to consumers.

The NCC emphasised that the changes would bring improvements in network quality, customer service, and connectivity coverage.

According to the statement, extensive consultations with stakeholders in both the public and private sectors informed the decision.

The NCC assured that the adjustments would be implemented transparently, with operators mandated to educate consumers about the new rates and ensure measurable improvements in service delivery.

The statement concluded, “As a regulator, the NCC will continue to engage with stakeholders to create a telecommunications environment that works for everyone—one that protects consumers, supports operators, and sustains the ecosystem that drives connectivity across the nation.”

The Minister of Communications, Innovation, and Digital Economy, Bosun Tijani, during a recent appearance on national TV, revealed that while telecom operators were pushing for a 100 per cent hike in tariffs, the government was only considering an increment of between 30 and 60 per cent.

“It should not be more than anywhere between 30 per cent to 60 per cent,” he said, noting that the proposed increase is less than what operators had requested.

However, with an approved 50 per cent increase, the average cost of phone calls will likely rise from N11 to N16.5 per minute, SMS charges will increase from N4 to N6, and the cost of 1GB of data will jump from N350 to N525.

Legal action

The President of the National Association of Telecoms Subscribers, Adeolu Ogunbanjo, has rejected the imposition of a new duty on the telecom sector, warning that it would worsen the taxation burden and negatively impact Nigerians.

“There was no agreement reached at the meeting with stakeholders,” Ogunbanjo said. “We presented our case, but nothing concrete was resolved during the meeting with the NCC in Abuja.”

The association has vowed to take legal action if the proposed duty is implemented without addressing subscribers’ concerns.

Ogunbanjo noted that while the association might accept a tariff increase of 5 to 10 per cent, anything beyond that would be unacceptable.

“If this new duty is implemented, we will take the matter to court. This kind of policy cannot stand,” he declared.

He suggested alternative funding mechanisms for telecom operators, such as raising capital through Initial Public Offerings.

“Let Nigerians be part of the business by buying shares. MTN has already gone public, and others can follow. This way, operators can raise funds without overburdening subscribers,” he said.

Ogunbanjo also highlighted the critical role the telecom sector plays in Nigeria’s economy, noting its contribution to foreign direct investment and GDP growth.

“Apart from oil, telecommunications is the only sector attracting significant investment. We cannot allow policies that will collapse the industry,” he stated.

He appealed to the minister to reconsider policies that could further impoverish Nigerians, citing poor electricity and economic conditions as ongoing challenges.

“A 50 per cent increase will cripple Nigerians. We will not accept this. A moderate increase is enough, and operators should explore other ways to generate funds,” Ogunbanjo insisted.

The Association of Telephone, Cable TV, and Internet Subscribers of Nigeria stated that with such an increase in tariff, there is a need for significant improvements in service quality.

President of the consumer group, Sina Bilesanmi told The PUNCH that the regulators including the NCC, and the minister were part of a virtual meeting in the morning where the decision for tariff hike was made.

Bilesanmi stated that the new tariff is to be implemented in February and warned that service providers must enhance their infrastructure and service quality within two weeks of the rollout.

“If we don’t see tangible improvements, we will take legal action against the telcos, the NCC, and the Federal Government,” he said.

The association’s support for the adjustment was driven by several factors, including the need to prevent the telecom sector from collapsing and to foster economic growth.

However, Bilesanmi made it clear that their acceptance is contingent on improved service delivery. “We urge our members to accept the tariff adjustment, but only if it results in better service. Otherwise, we will hold the authorities accountable,” he added.

Acknowledging the pressure in making the decision, Bilesanmi noted that stakeholders argued that rejecting the hike could lead to a shutdown of services. “I don’t want to be seen as an enemy of the economy,” he stated.

As February approaches, the association said it will closely monitor developments and remains committed to protecting consumer interests through all available legal means if service quality falls short of expectations.