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Nigeria’s Strategic Foreign Policy Dilemma: Domestic Politics, Regional Instability, Russia’s Encroaching Geopolitical Influence in West Africa and Sahel

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Dr. Emmanuel Zwanbin, El-Amin University, Minna
 
On the first of August 2024, an organised 10-day demonstration to demand good governance and accountability occurred across cities in Nigeria. However, a twist was added to the protest. Protesters waved Russian flags in Kano and across northern states signifying a possible Russian interference. 
 
This spectacular display of the flag highlighted Russia’s growing geopolitical interest in the region with broad implication on domestic grievances and foreign contestation. This trend represents Russia’s geopolitical effort to counterbalance the dominant role of the West in Africa, especially in the Sahel and West Africa. 
 
The military overthrow of civilian governments in the region may have external influence, however, it is a symptomatic manifestation of domestic public discontent taken advantage of my foreign interests. Therefore, the coup d’etat is an intersection between domestic turmoil on the one hand where the citizens are frustrated with the political elite and France and on the other hand, Russia’s return to Africa to strengthen its global alliances.
 
There is an increasing shift in global alliances and geopolitical positioning in Africa. These alliances have seen the contestation for influence between the conceptual West on one hand, and Russia and China on the other hand. This is particularly heightened by the widespread domestic discontent, terrorism and regional instability, thereby reinforcing the fact that there is a nexus between domestic issues and foreign policy of a state. Therefore, the end bad governance protests have foreign policy implications that lessons can be drawn from especially with the Russian flag saga.
 
The display of Russian flag during the #EndBdGovernance protest was believed to have been instigated by Nigerien infiltrators. They alleged Nigerien infiltrators were frustrated with Nigeria’s unfriendly stance against the coup Junta. The Russian flag can be construed in terms of being symbolic and strategic. Conversely, the flag symbolises the growing influence of Russia as was seen in Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger before and after the coups. Additionally, it represents the rejection of the status quo and an invitation to Russia and a welcoming gesture. The emergence of a flag became a debate as to whether it was a Russian flag or Nigerian army flag. The focus here was the call for a military intervention, which resonate with the trends of Russia strategies in the Sahel and West Africa particularly in Niger, Mali, Burkina Faso. It is worth noting that Russia does not pretend about its expansionist ambition. This, therefore, cannot be ignored.
 
The July 2023 military coup in Niger marked a watershed in Nigeria’s foreign policy towards Niger. The ties between Nigeria and Niger are not merely diplomatic. Both countries have shared history, religious, linguistic and familial connections. The ECOWAS sanction backed by Nigeria was perceived as a betrayal of the longstanding and cordial relations between the two states. Niger expected strong solidarity from Nigeria but was met with series of sanctions. Nigeria missed the opportunity to utilise its soft power tools to bring the junta under its influence and redirect it to democratic pathways. Thus, Russia took advantage by acting as its messiah from the Western backed sanctions. The tradition is usually, when a coup occurs, Western powers condemn the coup, call for return to democracy and severed diplomatic relations with such country. The lack of quick diplomatic maneuver by Nigeria created a power vacuum which allow international scavengers to consolidate their influence in the country.
 
The cutting of electricity supply to Niger and the closure of its international borders by Nigeria was a breaking point in the relations between the two historically friendly countries as it was considered an exercise of a last resort. Nigeria should have explored the use of smart power to entice Niger rather than an outright hard power sanctions. For instance, Nigeria-Niger energy partnership has been vital to the flow of water from the Niger River into two major power stations in Kainji and Jebba with a combined power generation capacity of 1,330 Megawatts while Nigeria supply electricity to Niger in exchange. However, this created a trust deficit between the two states and threatened their energy security.
 
The growing influence of Russia in the Sahel and West Africa has several implications. First, there is increasing geopolitical realignment which culminated in alternative supranational organisations such as the Alliance for the Sahel. Second, Russia’s overt military support for the Junta proliferates coups across the regions. Third, Russia’s disinformation depletes Nigeria’s attractiveness and dominance in the region. Fourth, Russia’s search for coastal access to strengthen its foothold in the region is an issue of great concern. These challenges posed an impasse between democracy and dictatorship.
 
Looking forward, to address these foreign policy challenges will be critical if Nigeria must assert herself as a regional hegemon with substantial geopolitical influence among the community of states. It is not in doubt that Nigeria’s traditional sphere of influence in West Africa and the Sahel has been threatened by the coups, particularly their withdrawal from ECOWAS diminishes regional cohesion while allowing Russia’s influence to flourish in the region. Therefore, for Nigeria to exert geostrategic and geopolitical influence, she must deliberately adopt smart power strategies and show of force in combining soft and hard power.
Firstly, Nigeria must improve coordination between the intelligence agencies and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs for prompt response leading to strategic foreign policy decision making. Secondly, Nigeria must move from its accidental public diplomacy to deliberately use institutional synergy and its cultural wealth such as music, sports, food, films and fabric to influence its attractiveness. By intentionally leveraging on the abundance of its soft power resources, Nigeria can push back on regional lack of cohesion. Thirdly, strengthening regional alliances despite the emergence of the Alliance of Sahel States (Alliance des États du Sahel-AES), foreign publics engagements, promotion of regional security initiative such as the Multinational Joint Taskforce. It is imperative for Nigeria to re-assert itself and champion counter efforts against Russian disinformation and predatory influences.
Fourthly, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs must galvanise foreign policy think tanks and the intelligence community to provide early detection of emerging foreign policy phenomenon. For instance, Nigeria Institute for International Affairs (NIIA) can put up an initiative that will map and organise foreign policy experts in clusters for interdisciplinary collaboration and to provide analysis on pressing foreign policy issues that will enhance intelligence and decisionmaking.
 
Fifthly, Nigeria’s economic foreign policy must bring together commercial entities with transnational capacity such as the Dangote Group, BUA group and Innoson Motors to mention but a few to the forefront in advancing its national interest in the region and beyond.
 
By and large, to deal with the shifting regional alliance, Nigeria needs to recalibrate its “Africa as the centrepiece” strategy with a more pragmatic approach to dealing with the realities of emerging geopolitics and national interests. Russian will remain opportunistic while the Western will continue to challenge Russia and other revisionist states in Africa. Nigeria must position itself as a melting pot and take advantage of the dynamic changes in the region. As a regional hegemon, Nigeria must remain focus on strengthening regional alliances, invest generously in public diplomacy, and foster regional security cooperation. By and large, Nigeria remains an important buffer against Russia’s calculated strategy of expansion. It must be decisive in countering the geopolitical encroachment of predatory states to remain relevant in its traditional sphere of influence in the region.
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Police arrest Osun commissioner, Adeleke campaign council kicks

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The Osun State Police Command has arrested the state Commissioner for Environment and Sanitation, Mayowa Adejoorin, over the shooting that occurred during an All Progressives Congress rally in Ilesa on Saturday.

The arrest, however, has triggered a reaction from the Imole Campaign Council, the campaign organisation of Governor Ademola Adeleke, which accused the police of bias and alleged that the commissioner was being politically targeted.

The police spokesperson, Abiodun Ojelabi, said Adejoorin was arrested after tactical officers intercepted a white Lexus 350 in connection with the incident.

Ojelabi told our correspondent that the shooting occurred after a vehicle bearing registration number OSHAO4 was parked near the APC rally and persons identified as Amotekun personnel allegedly emerged from it and opened fire.

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He said some APC supporters chased the fleeing personnel, adding that one of those caught allegedly pulled out a knife and attempted to stab people before escaping.

Ojelabi said the matter was reported to the police, prompting tactical teams deployed to different locations in the area to respond.

He said, “There was a rally by APC in some parts of Ilesa. The rally was on when they discovered a vehicle parked beside them bearing a particular plate number, OSHAO4, and some people identified as Amotekun Personnel came out of the car and shot sporadically, and everybody ran for safety.

“So some brave men among those that were doing the rally chased those Amotekun personnel passengers.
The one they were able to catch drew out a knife and tried to stab anyone who came close to him, and he used that technique to escape.”

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According to the police spokesperson, officers later intercepted the Lexus and arrested an Amotekun operative and another occupant, who were taken to the command headquarters.

He said interrogation established that the second occupant was Adejoorin.

Ojelabi said, “The matter was reported to the police, and based on our own, we already have our tactical teams on the ground. We have over four IRT tactical teams on the ground posted to different locations.

“So the IRT that was closer to that place responded to that incident. On getting to the scene, they saw a vehicle that was approaching them, a white Lexus 350.

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“On intercepting the vehicle, they saw an Amotekun personnel in the vehicle. So they apprehended the vehicle, the personnel and one other person in the vehicle. They brought them straight to the headquarters here. On interrogation, it was discovered that the other occupant is Honourable Mayowa Adejoorin.”

The police said investigation had commenced to determine Adejoorin’s level of involvement in the incident.

Reacting to the arrest, the Imole Campaign Council accused the police command of indiscriminate arrests, intimidation and alleged abduction of Accord Party leaders and supporters across Ijesaland.

The council’s spokesperson, Pelumi Olajengbesi, addressing journalists in Osogbo alleged that Adejoorin was arrested outside Ilesa while travelling to Osogbo and claimed the police were acting on the instruction of a federal lawmaker.

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Olajengbesi said the commissioner had earlier received a call from the lawmaker, during which he was allegedly threatened with arrest.

He said, “The latest victim of this alarming pattern is the Honourable Commissioner for Environment and Sanitation, Hon Mayowa Adejoorin, a prominent native of Ikiyinwa in Obokun Local Government Area of the state.

“The manner of his arrest is particularly disturbing. We consider what happened to Hon Adejoorin nothing short of a bandit-line abduction carried out under the cover of police authority.

“For some time now, we have witnessed a disturbing pattern in which prominent Accord leaders and supporters in Ijesaland are picked up by the Police on allegations that are apparently motivated by sinister political calculations, kept away from their families, communities and campaign activities, and thereby removed from circulation at a critical period of the electoral process.”

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The campaign council called on the Inspector-General of Police, Tunji Disu, to intervene and rein in the Osun State Police Command.

Questioning the basis for the arrest, Olajengbesi said, “On what basis was Hon Mayowa Adejoorin arrested? What offence has he committed?
What evidence exists against him?

“Why was his arrest carried out in such a manner? And why does the Police appear increasingly willing to deploy its powers only against Accord political leaders at this critical moment in our democratic process?

“We demand the immediate release of Hon Mayowa Adejoorin, as we believe, there is no lawful and credible basis for his abduction and detention.

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“Let me also make this clear to the Police command and to the frustrated APC leaders who are sponsoring these actions: The Accord will not be intimidated. You may arrest our leaders. But you cannot arrest the will of the people.”

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INEC extends candidate submission deadline to Tuesday

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The Independent National Electoral Commission has extended the deadline for political parties to submit the list of candidates for the 2027 governorship and state Houses of Assembly elections from Saturday, August 8, to Tuesday, August 11, 2026.

The commission announced the extension in a statement issued on Saturday and signed by the National Commissioner and Chairman of its Information and Voter Education Committee, Mohammed Haruna.

According to INEC, the decision followed appeals by political parties for additional time to complete the submission process through the dedicated online portal.

“The submission window, which according to the revised Timetable and Schedule of Activities for the General Election was originally scheduled to close on Saturday, 8th August, 2026, has been extended to Tuesday, 11th August, 2026,” the commission said.

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In a related development, INEC announced the suspension of PVC collection in Osun State ahead of the August 15 governorship election.

The commission said voters who applied for replacement of lost, damaged or defaced Permanent Voter Cards would have until midnight on Sunday, August 9, to print downloadable copies of their cards.

The electoral body explained that the deadline was necessary to enable it compile data on downloaded PVCs and produce final statistics on the total number of cards collected ahead of the election.

INEC said PVC collection in Osun commenced at the Registration Area level from July 22 to 28, 2026, but was extended to July 31 following complaints about large crowds and difficulties experienced by voters at collection centres.

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The exercise subsequently moved to the local government level and ran from August 1 to 7.

The commission also disclosed that replacement downloadable PVCs had been made available to voters in Odo-Otin and Ife Central Local Government Areas following the theft of cards during attacks on the two collection centres.

It stressed that the stolen cards could not be used to vote.

INEC reassured Osun residents of its preparedness for the August 15 governorship election.

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“The commission reiterates that the stolen cards cannot be used to vote.

“INEC reassures the people of Osun State of its readiness to conduct a free, fair, credible and inclusive governorship election on 15th August, 2026,” the statement said.

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Why I criticised Tinubu’s tax reform openly — Nasarawa gov

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Nasarawa State Governor, Abdullahi Sule, on Saturday disclosed that he openly criticised the original Value Added Tax component of President Bola Tinubu’s tax reform, warning that pushing the proposed increase through at a time of high inflation would have hurt ordinary Nigerians.

Sule made the disclosure while receiving the Special Adviser to the President on Information and Strategy, Bayo Onanuga, and the Renewed Hope Ambassadors National Media Tour team at the Nasarawa State Government House in Lafia, on the second leg of a nationwide inspection of federal and state infrastructure projects that had earlier taken the delegation through Benue State.

Sule said the President listened to the concerns of governors like him and ultimately revised the changes to the Tax Bill.

He stated, “I don’t praise-sing. When the president was misled about taxes, I criticised the matter openly. People misunderstood the matter, and when we visited the President, he said, ‘Sule, go and meet Zacch Adedeji and the current Minister of Finance [Taiwo Oyedele]. If you make the changes, if they agree, it’s okay.

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“I said, ‘Mr President, that’s what we wanted from you.’ Governors were pushing me that I was the one to talk, and I spoke. And when we went, we made the changes.”

Sule explained the reasons behind his objection, tying it to the inflationary environment at the time the reform was first proposed.

“We made the changes because as at January 1, 2025, VAT would have been 10 per cent at the time. Inflation was about 30 per cent. Today, inflation is now getting to single-digit numbers. So now you can afford to charge more.

“I come from the business angle; I cannot allow our party to make a mistake. And luckily for us, we have a president who listens. He listened.

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“We made the changes. They are positive, and it is bringing money to states; this has made the President look good,” he said.

Sule said he was willing to challenge the President publicly as consistent with a broader philosophy of honest engagement rather than blind loyalty.

“There is a way that you have to be able to find a way to commend your leaders when they do right. But it goes both ways,” he told the Presidential Communications Team, urging them to also scrutinise governors whose infrastructure did not match the resources they were receiving.

“The governors should be concerned about these trips that you are making, because it is time now to be accountable,” he added.

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Sule also disclosed that the state’s monthly federal allocation surged from an average of N3.8bn to N4.5bn before the removal of fuel subsidy, to between N14bn and N16bn today.

He credited President Tinubu’s economic reforms for freeing up resources previously consumed by subsidy payments across all tiers of government.

The ex-Dangote Sugar Refinery executive explained, “In the first four years, everybody knows Nigeria was sharing anywhere between N590bn to about N620bn monthly as total FAAC allocation.”

“For Nasarawa State, what we were getting was anywhere between N3.8bn and N4.5bn for the state. With the removal of subsidy today, Nasarawa State is receiving an average of N14bn to N16bn every month,” he added, saying Tinubu “took the bullet” for state governments by freeing up resources previously consumed by subsidy payments.

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Sule further stated, “Today, I can tell you we have spent about N90bn on infrastructure without borrowing one naira from the bank, and most of it has already been paid off.

He listed state projects executed, including a combined overhead and underground flyover built for N16.7bn, the dualisation of Akwanga Township at N7.1bn, an Akwanga underpass at N6.6bn, the dualisation of Shendam Road at N5.6bn, a stormwater channel at Amba Bridge at N3.3bn, and the Keffi flyover built for N11.4bn.

On lithium, Sule said Nasarawa now hosts what he described as Africa’s largest lithium mining and processing facility.

He attributed this to a federal policy requiring miners to process minerals locally rather than export them raw.

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“You cannot take away the credit from this administration,” he said, highlighting the state’s vocational skills centres which offer training in 12 trades and a post-retirement skills programme, alongside new tertiary healthcare facilities established across all three senatorial zones of the state, including a specialist hospital under construction in Akwanga.

Responding, Onanuga said the tour was designed to independently verify claims of development rather than rely solely on official reports.

“We want to verify federal projects, verify state projects, so that people can know that the reports are not just a waste of time, but were done in good faith to really develop our country,” he said.

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