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Oil prices fall on Venezuela crisis
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Experts disagree on how it ‘ll affect budget
Nigeria’s 2026 budget may be threatened following the US strike on Venezuela at the weekend.
This is as a result of the ripple effect the action is having on the price of crude in the international market.
Yesterday, oil prices continued their decline with Brent dropping by 0.38 per cent to $60.56 a barrel. The United States(US) West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell by 1.17 per cent to $56.46 a barrel as the market reacted to President Donald Trump’s announcement that the US had secured a deal to import up to $2 billion in Venezuelan crude.
Also, Trump said Venezuela will turn over between 30 million and 50 million barrels of oil to the US in two months.
With Nigeria’s 2026 federal budget of N58.18 trillion predicated on a “conservative” crude oil benchmark of $64.85 per barrel, experts reckon that should the decline continue, the revenue earnings of the country may be affected.
On Wednesday, US Energy Secretary Chris Wright further accentuated Trump’s plans for Venezuela’s oil, affirming that the plans to take long-term control of Venezuela’s oil industry, including overseeing crude sales and revenues, “indefinitely.”
Under the plan, Washington would sell Venezuelan oil directly on global markets, thus adding to the current glut being experienced in the global supply and delivery position.
Mayowa Sodipo, an oil and gas consultant, said continued involvement of America in Venezuelan oil will negatively affect Nigeria’s revenue projection for this year because the US has always been the world’s largest buyer of the country’s oil.
‘’The gains being recorded by the local currency, the Naira, may also be in jeopardy given that oil remains the largest source of foreign exchange for the country.
Our forex may suffer if the price decline continues; it means reduced Forex inflow for the country, including affecting our external reserves, and this will put more pressure on the naira,” Sodipo said.
He warned that the effect will reverberate in the overall economy as major projects may be impacted negatively. “The government has embarked on huge projects; they may suffer funding should the price continue to decline,” Sodipo added.
This view was reechoed by former chairman of the Chartered Institute of Bankers of Nigeria (CIBN), Prof. Segun Ajibola, who warned that as one of Nigeria’s top oil buyers, any reduction in U.S. demand could have knock-on effects for export volumes and prices.
Ajibola said: “At the current price of about $60.8 per barrel compared with Tinubu’s proposed $64.85, the situation is already becoming stressed. If a price war ensues, as could be triggered by increased supply from Venezuela, it will affect Nigeria’s projections for 2026.”
On the contrary, an economist and Chief Executive Officer, Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE), Dr Muda Yusuf, opined that the situation in Venezuela was unlikely to have any significant impact on the global oil market, particularly in the near term.
He based his argument on the present glut being experienced in the oil market and the insignificant contribution of Venezuela to the market.
Yusuf said: “Venezuela’s current oil output is extremely low, accounting for less than one per cent of global oil production. Years of underinvestment, operational inefficiencies, sanctions, and institutional collapse have severely weakened the country’s oil sector.
’As a result, Venezuela no longer plays a material role in influencing global oil supply dynamics. Importantly, the recent attack and the circumstances surrounding Maduro’s capture did not damage Venezuela’s oil production infrastructure. Consequently, oil output is expected to remain broadly unchanged in the short term.”
Beyond Venezuela’s limited production capacity, he further argued, the global oil market is presently experiencing a supply glut. This supply cushion means that even if Venezuela were to experience some level of production disruption, it would not translate into any meaningful impact on global oil prices. Current market fundamentals, he said, are therefore resilient enough to absorb any marginal shocks from Venezuela.
Yusuf, however, noted that the country remains strategically significant in the longer term as it holds one of the largest proven oil reserves in the world- about 18 per cent of global reserves, a resource base he argued, gives Venezuela substantial latent potential
“If the current political developments do not escalate into prolonged instability, and if Donald Trump follows through on indications that American oil companies could re-enter the Venezuelan oil sector, the country’s oil output could gradually recover,” the economist said.
He added that such a turnaround would occur only in the medium to long term. Yusuf also noted that rebuilding production capacity would require significant capital investment, technical expertise, regulatory clarity, and time. Therefore, any supply boost from Venezuela would not be immediate and should not be factored into short-term oil market expectations.
“In summary, while Venezuela’s political developments are geopolitically notable, they do not pose a short-term risk to global oil supply or prices. Any meaningful impact would depend on long-term political stability and sustained reinvestment in the country’s oil industry,” Yusuf said.
However, in the medium to long term, the economist argued that there may be a significant increase in output, which may lead to a significant increase in supply and which may affect the global oil price.
“But that is in the medium to long term because for now, Venezuela will be experiencing some instability. Even the investors that Trump was talking about will also be very cautious in returning to Venezuela to produce.
“So, it will take some time for them to have that level of confidence to go to Venezuela and invest. I mean, it will also take some time, a minimum of a year. These are investors who have left the place for some time. These are investors who also want to watch the political environment and the security environment in the place. So, investors will also take their time before they go there to begin to invest in oil production; these are private investors. These are not government investors.
However, the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC+) appears to be girding its loins. At its January 4 meeting, OPEC+ agreed to keep output steady, despite internal tensions, reinforcing expectations that 2026 will be marked by oversupply. With inventories comfortable and alternative barrels available, traders see little reason to panic. On that narrow view, oil’s muted reaction looks rational.
Yet markets are rarely adept at pricing geopolitical risk in real time. President Trump’s threats, not only against Venezuela but also Colombia, Mexico and even Greenland, inject a level of headline risk that is hard to model but difficult to underestimate. History suggests that investors’ instinct to “keep calm and carry on” often holds until it suddenly does not.
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WATCH: Rep OK Chinda displaying what’s he’s best known for, humility
Rep OK Chinda the gubernatorial flag bearer of APC in Rivers State is best known for his humility both at home and in the diaspora.
In this short video clip, he still displays that embodiment of humility.
Watch:
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Reps Demand Urgent Action Over Bille Gas Seepage, Odidi Oil Spill
By Gloria Ikibah
The House of Representatives Committee on South-South Development Commission has demanded urgent and concrete measures to end the prolonged gas seepage in Bille Community, Rivers State, and the oil spill affecting Odidi Federated Community in Delta State.
Chairman of the committee, Rep. Julius Gbabojor Pondi, gave the directive on Thursday during a stakeholders’ engagement on the Bille gas seepage and a legislative hearing on the Odidi oil spill in Abuja.
Pondi said the two incidents had exposed residents of the oil-producing region to serious environmental and economic challenges, while responses from relevant authorities had failed to provide satisfactory and lasting solutions.
He said the committee became particularly concerned about the Bille incident following its engagement with the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) and the National Oil Spill Detection and Response Agency (NOSDRA) on July 30, 2026.
According to him, the gas seepage had persisted for about nine months, with no clear end in sight.
He noted that Bille, a predominantly fishing community, had suffered losses to livelihoods, food security, household incomes, education and the general wellbeing of residents.
Pondi said: “The implications are serious. Beyond the potential risks to health, safety and the environment, the incident has imposed severe economic hardship on the people of Bille.
“It is unacceptable for an incident of this magnitude to persist for so long without a clear, time-bound and effective resolution strategy”.
The lawmaker said the stakeholders’ meeting was convened to establish the facts surrounding the incident, assess the response so far, identify obstacles and agree on practical and measurable steps towards resolving the crisis.
He said the committee expect detailed briefings from the operating companies, NUPRC, NOSDRA and other relevant agencies on the cause, extent and present status of the seepage.
Pondi also said representatives of Bille will be allowed to present their concerns and explain the relief and interventions required by the community.
“Most importantly, we want to move from prolonged discussion to concrete action and lasting resolution,” he said.
Presenting the agency’s technical findings, a Director of NOSDRA, Dr Yusuf Rigasa, confirmed the presence of several gases, including hydrogen sulphide, methane, volatile organic compounds and carbon dioxide, in parts of Bille, Degema Local Government Area of Rivers State.
Rigasa said investigations had established what he described as “multi-point subsurface gas bubbling” at several locations, including the premises of the Government Primary and Secondary School.
He said the school had subsequently been abandoned, while gas bubbling was also detected around waterways and mangrove areas.
According to him, NOSDRA conducted an air-quality assessment on December 6, 2025, at 19 locations and recorded elevated levels of hydrogen sulphide, methane, volatile organic compounds and carbon dioxide.
He explained that hydrogen sulphide has a characteristic rotten-egg odour, while methane is highly flammable and potentially explosive.
Rigasa said the levels recorded during the assessment exceeded applicable regulatory thresholds.
He added that laboratory analysis of samples collected on December 16, 2025, also revealed elevated levels of total petroleum hydrocarbons in groundwater, surface water and sediment.
The findings, he said, showed that soil, surface water and groundwater in parts of Bille had been affected by pollution.
The NOSDRA official said the agency’s technical presentation to the Minister of Petroleum Resources indicated that the gas seepage was probably biogenic, resulting from the degradation of organic matter.
He stressed, however, that the agency had not established that the gas originated from a hydrocarbon source.
Rigasa said the technical team had compared the situation with the 1986 Lake Nyos gas disaster in Cameroon, where a sudden release of carbon dioxide killed about 1,700 people and large numbers of animals.
He, however, stressed that NOSDRA had not identified any oil and gas operator as the source of the seepage.
According to him, the agency worked with operators including Renaissance, Eroton and New Cross, as well as the Nigerian National Petroleum Company, during the preliminary investigation.
He said NUPRC had also indicated that it had no record of pipelines in the immediate area where the seepage was occurring.
“That also tells us our findings, because we searched for oil and gas assets at the locations. There were none. That is why we are not able to actually pin a certain operator to what is actually happening,” he said.
Rigasa said NOSDRA’s findings had been corroborated by NUPRC, while a reservoir survey was ongoing to determine whether there was any connection to an underground hydrocarbon reservoir.
He explained that NUPRC was responsible for the reservoir investigation, while NOSDRA’s mandate was primarily environmental.
“What we can confirm for the House is that the air, the groundwater, the surface water and the sediment in the swampy areas in that village, they are all polluted,” Rigasa added.
The Bille Kingdom Chiefs Council also used the hearing to raise fresh concerns about the impact of the gas seepage on the community.
Secretary-General of the council, Chief Luckyman Egbila, Opu Gbolo III of Ancient Bille Kingdom, said the incident began on November 6, 2025, in the mangrove area where women had gone to harvest periwinkles.
He explained that Bille was predominantly a fishing community situated on a riverine island and accessible only by water.
Egbila said the community immediately alerted the relevant authorities, leading to an initial visit by NOSDRA and subsequent assessments.
He said although NOSDRA made recommendations, including the excavation of some areas, the community was not given the full reports of the investigations.
According to him, residents were eventually forced to travel to Abuja and write to relevant agencies after failing to receive satisfactory responses from regulators.
Egbila explained that further engagements were later held with operators, during which air quality, soil and water tests were conducted.
However, he said the community again did not receive the results of the tests.
Egbila said the situation had continued to deteriorate, with gas bubbling reported in several mangrove areas.
“Up till now, we are yet to see anything. Just as it happened the first time, they have gone back to sleep.
“Our people cannot go to fishing. Most of the mangroves are bubbling. Particularly, we don’t have water to drink. We don’t have water to eat with,” he said.
The community leader also alleged that dugout wells had become contaminated, while some residents, including children, had developed health problems.
He said the Rivers State Government had provided N100 million in palliative support, part of which was used to provide food and conduct a medical outreach.
However, he maintained that the intervention was inadequate given the length and severity of the crisis.
Egbila said NUPRC had also provided food items to the community, with contributions from operators and other oil and gas companies, but the supplies lasted only a few days.
He called for the immediate provision of potable water.
“Water is life. We can’t exist without potable drinking water,” he said.
The Bille representative also appealed for the permanent resolution of the gas seepage, saying residents needed to return to fishing and other economic activities.
He said the community hosts two major oil mining leases, OML 18 and OML 24, as well as gas infrastructure, and contributes significantly to the national economy.
Egbila said the crisis had also affected education in the community, forcing pupils to leave the primary school because of concerns over exposure to the emissions.
He added that the secondary school was considering reducing teaching hours to limit students’ exposure to the affected air.
He appealed for the upgrading of the community’s primary health centre and the deployment of resident doctors.
According to him, residents face serious difficulties accessing medical care in Port Harcourt because Bille can only be reached by water.
“Most times when people fall sick, by the time you rush them, get the boats and get to Port Harcourt, we keep losing these souls and lives,” he said.
Egbila further raised concerns about the condition of water from boreholes, alleging that some water that initially appeared clear turned black shortly after being pumped.
He urged the Federal Government, regulatory agencies and oil and gas companies to provide safe drinking water, address the health and livelihood consequences and find a lasting solution to the seepage.
Meanwhile, the chairman said the committee will proceed with a legislative hearing into the oil spill affecting Odidi Federated Community in Delta State.
He said the incident had reportedly persisted for more than five months.
According to him, the hearing will establish when the spill occurred and was reported, its cause, the containment measures taken, the extent of the affected environment, the state of remediation and why the spill had continued for so long.
“Our approach will be fair, objective and evidence-based. We are not here to prejudge any party, but to establish the facts, promote accountability and facilitate solutions,” he said.
Pondi described the Bille and Odidi cases as examples of the wider environmental and developmental problems confronting the South-South region.
He said communities in the region continued to bear a heavy environmental burden despite their significant contribution to Nigeria’s oil and gas economy.
“This contradiction must be addressed. The wealth derived from the natural resources of the Niger Delta must not come at the unacceptable cost of the health, livelihoods and future of its people,” he said.
The committee chairman said the House had a constitutional responsibility to ensure effective oversight and accountability, particularly among institutions responsible for environmental protection and resource management.
He warned that the proceedings must not end with expressions of concern without concrete implementation.
“We expect clear resolutions, firm commitments, defined responsibilities and measurable timelines,” he said.
Pondi added that immediate interventions should begin without delay, while technical assessments and remediation should be properly planned, funded and monitored.
He assured residents of Bille and Odidi that the House had heard their concerns and would continue to press for appropriate action.
“You deserve prompt intervention, effective remediation, meaningful relief and a clear pathway towards restoring your environment and livelihoods,” Pondi said.
He said the ultimate objective was to build a South-South region where natural resources could be developed responsibly, host communities protected, environmental incidents addressed promptly and economic development pursued alongside environmental sustainability, social justice and human dignity.
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We must be resilient, combating drug war is a generational task, Marwa charges NDLEA officers (Photos)
. Honours 274 personnel, 18 Commands, 19 NGOs, media platforms at 12th awards ceremony in Abuja
The Chairman/Chief Executive Officer of the National Drug Law Enforcement Agency (NDLEA), Brig. Gen. Mohamed Buba Marwa (Rtd.) has charged officers, men and women of the anti-narcotics institution to remain resilient in view of the persistent nature of the drug challenge, which he described as a generational responsibility.
He gave the charge on Thursday 13th August 2026 during the 12th Chairman/Chief Executive Officer’s Commendations and Awards ceremony at the Agency’s national headquarters in Abuja where he honoured 274 personnel for outstanding performance in the discharge of their duties, and 18 best-performing commands as well as 19 NGOs and media organisations for their commitment to the war against drug abuse (WADA) advocacy in Nigeria.
According to him, “the war against illicit drugs is not a campaign with an end date. It is a generational responsibility. For every cartel we dismantle, intelligence tells us another will attempt to rise. For every corridor we shut down, traffickers will search for another route.”
He explained that the fight against drug trafficking could never be won by enforcement alone, noting that NGOs work quietly within communities to walk young people back from the edge of addiction, while journalists have told difficult stories on trafficking routes, rehabilitation, and family recovery that are not always easy to tell.
He acknowledged that many more deserving organisations and media platforms across the country exist beyond the honourees, describing the gesture as “the beginning of a tradition, not a closed chapter,” and assuring that subsequent editions of the ceremony will continue to identify and honour more individuals and organisations doing similar work.
“The fight against drug trafficking and substance abuse was never going to be won by enforcement alone. It is won in the communities where NGOs quietly walk young people back from the edge of addiction. It is won in the newsrooms where journalists chose to tell the difficult stories, the stories of trafficking routes, of rehabilitation, of families rebuilding, even when those stories were not the easiest to tell. Our partners in civil society and the media have been the multiplier effect on everything this Agency does. You have taken our message into homes, schools, and communities that our uniforms alone could never reach.”
Marwa highlighted some recent major operations that he said captured the character of the Agency: the dismantling of the Amadi Simon drug cartel; the takedown of two Nigerian-Mexican methamphetamine cartels operating within forests in Ogun and Oyo States; and the disruption of a tramadol cartel exploiting the Togo–Benin Republic–Nigeria corridor, which he described as a route that had for years fed a crisis of opioid abuse among Nigerian youth.
“These were not simple raids. They were the product of patient intelligence-gathering, cross-border cooperation, and officers willing to go where the criminals believed no one would follow”, he noted.
The NDLEA boss charged officers of the Agency to see the honourees as a standard to reach for rather than a ceiling to stop at, and urged partners in civil society and the media to view the recognition as an invitation to do more, not a reward to rest on.
He congratulated all recipients of awards and commendations, and thanked their families as well as Nigerians who continue to place their trust in the Agency.
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