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Opinion

Permutations On Edo Governorship Election 2024

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By Professor Echefuna’ R G ONYEBEADI

The die is cast! By September 21, 2024 (roughly twenty four hours from now), Edo people shall vote for who will be the next governor of their State.
The stake seems to be very high. It’s most likely to be a “roforofo” show between the “haves” and the “have nots”. Between wits and brawns; and between “godsons” and the “godfatherless”.
The election is poised to be a straight fight between three categories of people viz (not in a particular order):
1. The Elites
2. The Idealists
3. The Vulnerables (terminology loosely used).

The forthcoming election is for three political parties namely: APC, LP and PDP (in alphabetical order), to win or lose.

PDP represents the Elites group. Labour Party (LP) represents the Idealists group while the APC represents the Vulnerables group in the forthcoming election.

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Whereas APC has the “Federal Might” (don’t ask me what that means), APC as a political, a former Governor and a humongous flow of money that is flowing from doubtful sources; PDP has the “power of incumbency” (please, don’t ask me what that means), a sitting governor and some unhindered flow of the State’s money, but without the global support of PDP as a political party.
The LP does not have those skewed “advantages” of both the APC and the PDP, but they have the full backing of the “Obidients” with a divided LP as a political party.

Ordinarily, going by “Nigerian factor” (again, please, don’t ask me what that means) on election matters among others, the election would have been for the APC to lose. But, it may not be so this time by a combination of factors.

PDP may have just had an easy win as the political party in power in the State, but again, that may not be so by a combination of factors.

The LP may have just lost the election outrightly in the fight for power between the trio of APC, PDP and LP, but again, that may not be so due to a combination of factors.

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So, who then does the odds favour to win the forthcoming governorship election in Edo State? Wait for it!

By simple logic and by the unwritten principles of zoning and rotation, the governorship election is ordinarily for the Edo Central zone to pick, more so, considering the fact that, in this new political dispensation from 1999 to date, Edo South has produced governors twice spanning 16 years out of 25 years. Edo North has produced a governor for 8 years while Edo Central had produced a governor by default for just about one year, off record.

If the general perception of the incumbent Governor’s ‘poor’ performance connotes reality, then, it will be a very herculean task for the current PDP “controlled” State government to win the forthcoming governorship election in Edo State.

This apart, the latent “Omonoba” factor is a very big abartross that will be very difficult if not impossible for the current PDP led government of the State to overcome.

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Going by the unprecedented, multifaceted and highly excruciating pains inflicted on Nigerians by the APC led Federal Government, it may be very difficult to convince the Edo people at this time, that their lots will be better served with a replication of an APC governor in the State.

Besides, the APC governorship candidate cuts across as a person bereft of original ideas, pedestrian and lacks self confidence/self esteem.

So, what would have ordinarily been an edge of having the so-called “Federal Might” and a favoured geopolitical zone, may backfire to cause a fatal political damage to the APC and its candidate.

The APC’s zonal factor sentiments of “tiwa ni tiwa” (our own is our own) and/or “it is our turn” ( awa lo kan) with an inappropriate candidate may really be offensive to the sensibilities and sensitivity of a people who had produced political juggernauts in the past in the persons of Chief Anthony Enahoro, Professor Ambrose Alli and Chief Tony Anenih, just to mention a few.

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APC seems to have an inappropriate candidate for a zone that is ordinarily favoured to produce the next governor.

Another fear to contend with is that of an overbearing APC god father which may not synchronize well with the psyche of many Edo people at this time.

Therefore, what may have become a disadvantage to APC’s candidate would have naturally become a clear advantage for the PDP candidate, considering that Edo Central is the favoured zone to produce the next governor. But, it may not turn out to be so.

The PDP candidate is elitist, highly educated, but seems imposed on the people and even supposedly alien to his own people.

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The PDP candidate seems to have the right credentials and/or pedigree, coming from a private sector but, his involvement in the current PDP led supposedly “failed” government and close association with a perceived “failed” incumbent Governor of the State is a big abbartross for the PDP candidate.

It may also be difficult for Edo people at this time to accept a political neophyte they hardly knew who is seemingly being put forward by a perceived “non performing” PDP godfather Governor!

It may be instructive at this juncture to note that, the so called rotation/zoning of elective political offices is not by any known law.

There hasn’t been any time that elective positions and particularly, that of governorship elections in Edo State have been exclusively restricted to and/or reserved solely, wholly and entirely for any particular zone without the active participation of the other zones.

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Otherwise, an Obaseki wouldn’t have been put forward and became governor for 8 years after an Igbinedion had previously governed for eight (8 ) years, when they are both from the same geopolitical zone of Edo South, without other zones taking their turns prior to.

There has never been any time all the zones didn’t present candidates for elections for governorship in the past.

Therefore, the present sentiments for the Edo Central zone to produce the next governor is neither a right nor any agreement by the stakeholders and citizens of Edo State. It can only be hinged on pleas, persuasions, negotiations, building bridges across the geopolitical divides and on moral ground. The clamour for zoning is not enforceable by any law.

Though the yearnings for zoning the governorship this time to Edo Central is justifiable based on the doctrines of equity, fairness and justice. It is also imperative to note that, one of the maxims of equity states that: he who must come to equity must do so with clean hands!

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Then, the pertinent question that needs an answer is: how clean are the hands of Edo Central stakeholders in producing inappropriate candidates that seem to be incurably deficient in the art and science of modern governance and/or unable to effectively communicate, with the added curiosity of being led and spoken for in their own campaigns by controversial people with lots of questionable baggage?

Flowing from the aforementioned therefore, it is my considered opinion that, the cloak of zoning elective positions, good as it may, is not a stand alone prerogative and can not rightly overshadow the overall interest and wellbeing of the citizens of the State.

While plying the route of zoning sentiments, it is only proper that competence, credibility, accountability, transparency and acceptability should not be sacrificed on the altars of incurable defective baggage and zoning.

Now, let’s consider some basic statistics.
According to the data from INEC, a total of 2,210,534 people registered to vote in the Edo Governorship election of Saturday, September 21, 2024.
Out of this number, only 1,726,738 people have collected their permanent voter cards (PVCs) while 483,796 PVCs are yet to be collected.

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The breakdown of eligible voters for each of the Edo state’s three geopolitical zones and the 18 Local Government Areas in alphabetical order are as follows:

*Edo Central (LGAs)*:
1. Esan Central – 57,100
2. Esan North East – 80,245
3. Esan South East – 76,842
4. Esan West – 99,983
5. Igueben – 46, 828
*Total = 364,998 or 16.51%*

*Edo North (LGAs)*:
1. Akoko Edo – 119,254
2. Etsako Central – 50,058
3. Etsako East – 81, 639
4. Etsako West – 160,137
5. Owan East – 91,841
6. Owan West – 61, 193
*Total = 564, 122 or 25.52%*

*Edo South (LGAs)*:
1. Egor – 219,832
2. Ikpoba Okha – 315,410
3. Oredo – 313,553
4. Orhinmwon – 118,672
5. Ovia North East – 143,009
6. Ovia South West – 96,409
7. Uhunmwode – 74,529
*Total = 1,281,414 or 57.97%*

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From the foregoing, it could be observed that *Edo Central has the least number of Local Government Areas (LGAs) with the least number of eligible voters, which is only 16.51% of the total number of eligible voters in Edo State.*

*Edo North has the second highest number of LGAs and the second highest number of eligible voters, which is 25.52% of the total number of eligible voters in Edo State.*

*Edo South has the highest number of eligible voters which is 57.97% of the total number of eligible voters in Edo State*

It may also be noticed that, Edo South alone where the LP candidate comes from, constitutes more than twice of the total number of eligible voters in both Edo Central and Edo North combined!

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Therefore, with all the variables and factors considered, the LP’s candidate for the forthcoming governorship election in Edo State may jolly well cruise to victory by default; more so if Edo South people decide to vote for their own, in addition to the palpable “Omonoba” sentiments as evidenced in recent massive protests in Benin City against the perceived enemies of the Oba of the ancient Benin kingdom.

In that case, the remnant votes of the Edo Central people which may be majorly shared by the two prominent candidates from that zone and that of the Edo North, which may mainly favour the candidate of the former governor from that zone, the overall effect may be such that will eventually tend to be insignificant.

All things considered, if the forthcoming election in Edo State is peaceful, free, fair, transparent and credible, all that the LP’s candidate needs to win the election is to secure a huge majority vote from his Edo South people and then, make some strategic inroads into the other two zones to get the mandatory 25% of the votes cast in 2-3rd of the LGAs of the State.

This simply translates to having the majority of the total votes cast as well as 25% of the votes cast in 12 (twelve) LGAs of Edo State.

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How these pans out will be an interesting watch!

In the final analysis, the ultimate decisions on who to vote for and/or against in the forthcoming governorship election in Edo State rests squarely on Edo State people. We wait to see!

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Opinion

Playing games with telecom tariff hikes

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By Sonny Aragba-Akpore

In what sounded like a death knell or an epilogue as we know it in literature,Association of Licenced Telecoms Operators of Nigeria (ALTON )chairman, Gbenga Adebayo, warned that “if nothing is done, we might begin to see in the new year grim consequences unfolding, such as Service Shedding; Operators may not be able to provide services in some areas and at some times of the day leaving millions disconnected, there will be significant economic Fallout, because businesses will suffer from lack of connectivity, stalling growth and innovation. There will also be national economic disruption where key sectors like security, commerce, healthcare, and education which rely heavily on telecom infrastructure, will face serious disruptions.”

This is frightening should the threat be carried out with full force.

But can the operators act unilaterally?The answer is no and that is where the game begins.

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Only last week the government agreed to demands for tariff hikes in the telecommunication industry. This is expected in the coming weeks, as the government aims to address sustainability challenges in the telecom sector. This implies that prices of calls, data and SMS will go up for the average Nigerian.

However, the hike will fall short of the 100 percent increase requested by service providers, with the government seeking to balance sector growth and protecting Nigerians from excessive financial burdens.Bosun Tijani, the minister of communications, innovation, and digital economy, disclosed this during an industry stakeholder forum in Abuja on Wednesday January 8,2025.

Similarly the NCC introduced the Guidance for the Simplification of Tariffs signed out by NCC Chief on November 25,2024 stating among other things that :”This Guidance is pursuant to the regulatory powers of the Nigerian Communications Commission (Commission) under Sections 3, 108 and 109 of the Nigerian

Communications Act 2003 (Act) as well as relevant subsidiary legislations empowering the Commission in that regard. It is also in furtherance of the mandate of the Commission to regulate communications services and ensure consumer protection in the sector.

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The Commission hereby issues this Amended Guidance for the simplification of tariff plans, bundles and promotional activities that include tariffs. This Guidance is designed to enhance transparency, improve consumer understanding and foster fair competition”.

It doesn’t stop there as the guidelines also elaborate on what is possible: “For the USSD platform, the following information should be included when a subscriber requests details of their tariff plan
o Name of Plan
o Validity Period (if applicable) Indicate rate per second (and rate per
minute) on-net/off-net
o Indicate rate per megabyte/kilobyte/gigabyte
o Indicate rate per SMS on-net/off-net
o The number of Add-ons subscribed to

Additional Conditions for Tariff Approvals
Operators must offer standalone data bundles, at fair prices to avoid tying consumers with products they do not need Bonuses on promotions must be stated in actual value.For all tariff plans, both the Main and Bonus accounts must deplete at rates within stipulated price floors and caps.

Bundles with shorter validity periods should be prioritized for depletion.
Options for subscribers who exhaust their bundle allowance within the stipulated
validity period should include:
o Purchase of a top-up bundle
o Purchase of a new bundle
o Switch to the default rate of his/her plan

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Any Operator wishing to offer services on third-party platforms (Banking applications, etc.) at discounted rates must obtain and comply with the explicit approval received from the Commission (Hot Deals, personalized/ below-the-
line offers, Cashback etc.)

Existing personalised offers approved by the Commission can remain active for the duration of the validity period of the approval. However, the Commission will continue to monitor the market and make necessary
interventions when required.

Below-the-line/personalised offers, Fixed/Fixed Wireless Services, and Device
Financing Propositions must be presented for the Commission’s prior approval process.

No one has ever challenged the powers of telecommunications regulators,the Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC) to regulate the sector which is believed to be the engine room of the economy.

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With over 14% contributions to the Gross Domestic Product’s (GDP) and one the biggest single contributors, telecommunications affects every fabric of the Nigerian life.

Understandably then, if the sector players experience haemorhage as a result of economic headwinds, then the economy is truly troubled.

The operators complain loudly that government may have decided to give out telecom services as palliative to Nigerians against the wishes of of Mobile Network Operators (MNOS) therefore suffocating their business.
They alleged that the regulator is playing games, especially against the backdrop of its inability to hearken to their cries of tariff hike.

But the regulator thinks differently as it says the Nigerian Communications Act (2003) especially sections 108 and 109 empowered it to treat such issues in that regard.

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The position and powers of the regulator have never been questioned by any of the industry stakeholders. What the operators are saying, for instance, is that some of the regulations by the Commission are so stale that they have little or no impact on modern business operations that can lead to growth or renewal of the industry.

At the time, NCC lost the voice to proclaim the provisions of the Act in Sections 108 and 109 which have no tolerance for the meddlesomeness of a minister or even the President of the Republic if he wanted to supervene. The operators did not also test the provisions of the Act in the Court.

One operator confessed in trepidation that “it’s already very tough doing business in Nigeria. We don’t want the government to come after use with all its powers.”one analyst summed up the NCC imbroglio at a time a Minister,s unnecessary place in the gallery truncated the 10% tariff hike which ended up as a Greek gift .And later short lived thus creating telecommunications as palliative to subscribers who do not have an idea of what operators are living through.

Even the operators are obviously ignorant of the floor price template as another analysis summed it up:
“Once a Floor and a Ceiling have been put in place, playing wthin the band doesn’t need the approval of the NCC,” another source affirmed.

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Perhaps in trying to enjoy this regulatory latitude, the operators in 2022 requested for, and got a 10 percent tariff increase on Voice and Data services from the NCC. The Commission reversed itself after a few days, saying the priority of the Minister Isa Pantami was to protect the citizens and ensure justice for all stakeholders. An NCC source told this writer that the reversal was unilaterally done by the minister who coerced the regulator to receive the fall.”

Telecom industry is under heavy burden according to ALTON Chairman, Adebayo.
Emphasizing that without the tariff review, operators cannot continue to guarantee service availability, the ALTON Chairman said though the challenges being faced by the telcos are not new, they have become more acute and more threatening with this passing year.

He noted that rising operational costs, skyrocketing energy costs, the relentless pressure of inflation, and volatile exchange rates, amongst others, have all placed an unsustainable burden on network operators.
Adebayo added that despite these mounting pressures, tariffs have remained stagnant, leaving operators trapped in a financial quagmire.

According to him, the resources needed to maintain, expand, and modernize telecom networks are no longer available and without intervention, “the future of this sector is at grave risk.”

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Keeping the sector afloat
The ALTON Chairman noted that stakeholders have done their best over the years to sustain the sector by upholding the values and importance of telecommunications in society.

“However, let me be clear: our work is far from over. It is not enough to have kept the sector afloat; we must now focus on securing its future. The sustainability challenges we face today are not just a passing storm—they are a clarion call for decisive action to ensure that this industry thrives for generations to come.
Due to the increasing costs, telecom operators in Nigeria have since last year been clamouring for an increase in tariffs.

In a joint statement by the Association of Licensed Telecom Operators of Nigeria (ALTON) and The Association of Telecommunication Companies of Nigeria (ATCON), the operators said the telecom industry is the only industry that has not reviewed its prices despite the rising inflation in the country and other economic realities that warrant increment.

They blamed this on the regulatory restraints that have been preventing them from pricing appropriately.
The Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC) regulates prices in the telecom industry and telecom operators are not allowed to implement any price change without the regulator’s approval.

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The regulator has said a cost-based study is being conducted to determine if it would approve price increments for the operators.

But the 2022 and 2024 proposals as announced by Toriola were truncated in August 2024 when ALTON traded off the proposals because of alleged misrepresentation saying the misrepresentation of the good intention of telecom operators to secure a slight adjustment on end-user tariff on voice calls and data services has led to the carriers slowing down on the push.

The operators, acting under the aegis of Association of Licensed Telecom Operators of Nigeria (ALTON), had sought the imprimatur of the Federal Government, via the Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC), to adjust call and data tariff to reflect cost of operation in the country.

The NCC had refused to accede to their demand, a decision insiders said was based on political expediency. In a pushback, the telcos had said their services should not be used as palliative to cushion the impact of ongoing economic hardships in the country.

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In May 2022,the mobile network operators (MNOS) proposed 40% increase in tariffs.

The operators under the auspices of Association of Licensed Telecommunication Operators of Nigeria (ALTON), proposed a 40 per cent hike in call and SMS tariffs.

The operators said the decision was necessary considering the rising cost of doing business.

A letter to the NCC said the fee for calls will increase from N6.4 to N8.95 while the price cap for SMS will increase from N4 to N5.61.

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The association said the telecommunications industry had been financially challenged by an economic downturn that occurred during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war.

ALTON added that the introduction of the five percent excise duty on telecom service providers has heightened the burden of multiple taxes and levies on the industry.

“ALTON considers it expedient for the telecommunications sector to undergo periodic cost adjustments through the commission’s intervention in order to minimise the impact of the challenging economic issues faced by our members,” it said.

“Upward review of the price determination for voice and data and SMS. Given the state of the economy and the circa 40 per cent increase in the cost of doing business, we wish to request for an interim administrative review of the mobile (voice) termination rate for voice; administrative data floor price, and cost of SMS as reflected in extant instruments.

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“For data services, we wish to request that the commission implements the recommendations in the August 2020 KPMG report on the determination of cost-based pricing for wholesale and retail broadband service in Nigeria. Excerpts from the report are attached and marked ‘Annexure 2’ to provide a further illustration,” it added.

When he spoke unanimously on national tv Toriola said “We at MTN believe we need adjustment of about 100 per cent, I think the industry is pretty much aligned because we are all experiencing the same headwinds. Now, the government is very sensitive to squeezing consumers’ wallets with the pressures that have come from inflation and currency devaluation on consumers.

Toriola was very optimistic that the government of Nigeria will accede to the proposed 100% tariff increase eventually all things being equal.

Toriola carried the cross and burden of the embattled sector when he spoke on national television last week Friday.
While bragging that telecommunications had impacted positively on the economy (he was right anyway) he is worried that not much encouragement has come from government.

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But that is where he miscalculated.

Although he felt justified that a tariff increase is sine quanon,there are several untapped layers of this question.

“So, I’m not sure they will give us 100 per cent, but I am optimistic they will give us something substantial and maybe progressively over the course of the year we can have smaller adjustments that will help us to get back to where we need to be,” Toriola said.

The MTN CEO said that almost every other sector in the country, including aviation and power have increased tariffs except the telecoms industry.

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According to him, all the bodies that look into the statistics of the telecoms industry globally have disclosed that Nigeria has probably the second or third lowest tariffs in the world on data as well as on voice.

If Toriola and his strange bedfellows return to the Floor price determination of 2016 and 2020 and the various studies carried out in that regard ,he will see a number of windows that could address the nightmare and save both the regulator Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC) and the rest of us these agonizing times.

Strangely,non of the operators has hit the maximum threshold of 50 naira per minute because of the competition to outdo each other by playing to the gallery in order to play smart and scurry subscribers attentions.

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Opinion

Did Yagba Federal Constituency Rotation Arrangement End in 2011?

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By Debo Alabi

Yagba Federal Constituency in the western Kogi senatorial zone, consists of three local councils, namely Mopamuro, Yagba East and Yagba West. In 1999, at the outset of the Fourth Republic political dispensation in Nigeria, each of the three local government areas fielded aspirants for the seat. The Peoples Democratic Party, (PDP), the dominant political association at the time, guaranteed success for its flagbearers. In the run-up to the 1999 polls, all eyes were on the PDP primaries. Shola Ojo, (Mopamuro); Tolorunjuwon Joseph Faniyi (Yagba East), Engr Sunday Karimi and Mrs Margret Orebiyi, (Yagba West) were the frontrunning aspirants. Orebiyi would later step down for Karimi. Despite the superior strength of Yagba West, which consists of 14 electoral wards, four more than Mopamuro and Yagba East with 10 electoral wards apiece, the PDP ticket was eventually decided in favour of Ojo (Mopamuro).

Ojo’s emegence was more of a consensus in an arrangement superintended by party elders under the leadership of the respected patriarch and one of the founding fathers of PDP in Nigeria, the late Chief Sunday Awoniyi. Aspirants from the two other local government areas were prevailed upon by the elders to await their turns in subsequent electoral cycles. Meanwhile, Yagba West fielded a candidate for the 1999 election in the late legal icon, Chief Tunji Arosanyin who was the flagbearer of the defunct All Peoples Party (APP). Ojo, also an attorney, hitherto domiciled in Kano, the formidable hub of commerce in northern Nigeria, went on to win the general election of that year.

Ojo served in the “Green Chamber” from 1999 to 2003. At that time, PDP’s internal, mutual understanding based on the rotation principle expressly asserted that each LGA would serve just one term, after which the position would rotate to another. Contestants for the 2003 PDP ticket included Karimi, Faniyi, Mrs Funmi Abiodun, a lawyer; the Port Harcourt based quantity surveyor and expert in the Marine sector, Bode Olorunsola and J.K Odeyemi, an engineer. The primary election was headed for a runoff between Faniyi and Karimi, but, again, the elders in their wisdom settled for a simple majority. Faniyi picked PDP ticket and he went on to defeat his opponent in the reconfigured APP, which had then become the All Nigeria People’s Party, (ANPP), Mrs Justina Abanida. Abanida, a one time Commissioner for Justice and Attorney General. Abanida, a lawyer, hails from Egbe, Yagba West Council.

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For Karimi, the waiting game continued even when the seat berthed in Yagba West. Karimi lost PDP’s ticket to a fellow Yagba West opponent, Samuel Bamidele Aro.. Aro, a successful oil marketer, won the 2007 election into the House of Representatives, which took place on April 21, 2007. He defeated Bolaji Oluwafemi of the defunct Action Congress (AC) and served in the lower parliament until 2011.

The extant rotational arrangement forbade Mopamuro and Yagba East from fielding candidates for the 2007 election. In fairness to the past occupants of the seat, performance was not a yardstick for continuity. Based on the extant zoning template of the PDP, the baton was expected to be passed back to Mopamuro in 2011. However, at the conclusion of his first term in 2011, Aro, the incumbent declared his intention for a second term. Backed by the Kogi State governor at the time, Ibrahim Idris and machinery of the ruling party at the state level, Aro defeated his lone challenger for the PDP ticket, Chief Folorunsho Daniyan, (from Mopamuro). However, the outcome of 2011 primary election that threw up Aro did not sit well with the factional PDP who beckoned on Karimi to step forward in another political party.

Karimi’s name was a last-minute inclusion in the portal of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) as the candidate of Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN). In what turned out a historic protest vote, Karimi defeated PDP’s Aro in the general election held on April 9th, 2011. The strength of the PDP had been further decimated in the aftermath of the controversies that trailed its primaries. Daniyan left PDP and flew the flag of the ANPP. He came third in the general election. For the first time, in 2011, Mopamuro, Yagba West and Yagba East all fielded candidates for the House of Representatives.

The 2011 episode effectively marked the fatal end to one term and rotation of the seat in Yagba Federal Constituency.

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Highlights

Karimi got the mandate of Yagba people to represent them in 2011 when he did not aspire for it from the start to the race and when it was supposed to be the turn of Mopamuro. He was not even on the list of aspirants jostling for the much-sought ticket of the PDP in that year’s primaries. He also became the first Yagba man to be reelected, thereby setting the precedence for continuity.

As the sitting Rep, Karimi (Yagba West) returned to his old party (PDP) and sought re-election in 2015. He picked the PDP ticket ahead of Kano based business tycoon, Leke Abejide (Yagba East) and successful civil engineer, Dele Obiniyi (Yagba East).

Karimi went on to win the parliamentary election held on March 28, 2015. He defeated Ganiyu Salaudeen of the Accord Party (AP/Yagba East), Kayode Adegbayo (APC/Yagba East), and Joseph Blessing of the Labour Party (LP/Mopamuro). Note again that all three LGAs fielded candidates in 2015.

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Subsequently, Karimi’s record was equalled by Leke Abejide (Yagba East), now on his second term. His back-to-back victory in the 2019 and 2023 elections were achieved under the platform of lesser known African Democratic Congress (ADC).

Instructively, to further butress the point that rotation may have become a thing of the past, Abejide’s victories in both elections were far from a walkover, not for him, not for Yagba East. With the exception of Yagba West, the 2019 edition was keenly contested by aspirants from Mopamuro and Yagba East. A total of 15 candidates registered with the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) to contest in the 2019 election. ADC candidate, Abejide won the election, defeating APC’s Henry Abimbola (Mopamuro), PDP’s Fabola James (Yagba East), SDP’s Oluwafemi Iselaiye (Yagba East) and 12 other candidates from Mopamuro and Yagba East. The list of candidates and their parties for the 2019 polls are as follows: Adebayo Kenneth (PPC); Oluropo Odofin Augustine (MPN); Jonathan Ayokunle Olushola (ACCORD): Balogun Blessing Olumayowa (APM); Somidire Comfort (ACPN); Atteh Oladimeji (PPN); Yusuf Mary Oluwatoyin (DA); Isah Saidu (LP); Omowaiye Ete A. (UPP); Omole David Bolorundoro (UPC) and Abdurafiu Ismail (PT).

The all-commers scenario was again replayed in 2023 when Abejide (ADC/Yagba East) ran against Folorunsho Olafemi (APC/Mopamuro), Joseph Faniyi (PDP/Yagba East).and Jeremiah Oladokun (APGA/Yagba East). The list incuded Alonge Victor Oluwabusayo (Accord), Adekunle Komolafe (NNPP), Bamigboye Sunday (ADP), Musa Lasisi (Action Alliance), Jethro Olusegun Solomon (SDP) and Obiniyi Bamidele (YPP).

Rotation Can Only Be By Negotiation, Not Entitlement Claim

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Ahead of the 2027 election, a notable Yagba political figure who preferred anonymity due to the sensitive nature of the debate on the continuity of rotation representation told our reporter that based on the foregoing, if at all there would be further adherence to rotation, “it can only be by negotiation, not by entitlement claim”.

He said: “The rotational arrangement for the HOR election in Yagbaland has been a straightforward and adaptable practice since inception. This arrangement was designed to give each local government in the federal constituency a fair opportunity. The Yagba federal constituency comprises three local government areas: Yagba West, Yagba East, and Mopamuro. Historically, Mopamuro was the first local government to benefit from this arrangement in 1999 with Hon. Sola Ojo, followed by Yagba East with Hon. T.J. Faniyi in 2003. In 2007, Hon. Sam Aro benefited from the rotation, and in 2011, it was Yagba West’s turn again with Hon. Sunday Karimi, who served two terms. This two-term pattern continued with Hon. Leke Abejide from Yagba East in 2019, who is currently serving his second term. Ideally, after Hon. Leke Abejide’s second term, Mopamuro local government should be the next to benefit from the rotation and to spend their two terms. However, Mopamuro’s inconsistent adherence to the rotation has been a significant constraint.

In the last two elections, Mopamuro fielded candidates against Hon. Leke Abejide, which was unfortunate as their action demonstrated their disregard for the rotation. Mr Tuesday Abimbola and Engr Folorunsho Olafemi contested twice with Leke Abejide. If they had won, it would have also conflicted the entire process. As an experienced political figure in Yagba federal constituency, I cautioned Mopamuro aspirants to respect the rotation and not contest against Yagba East candidates. Unfortunately, my warnings were ignored, and Mopamuro’s actions have put them at a disadvantage. If Mopamuro had respected the rotation and not contested against Yagba East in the last two elections, it would have been incumbent on Yagba East not to run against them. However, since Mopamuro did contest, Yagba East’s potential third term would alter the rotation cycle, making Yagba West eligible to contest after Yagba East.

It will take a proper consultation and a United front from Mopamuro to sustain their alliance with the rotation which they had kicked against”.

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As it were, from the viewpoints of public affairs analysts and political pundits, Mopamuro has held the seat one-term of four years since 1999, Yagba West had 3 terms of 12 years and Yagba East two terms of eight years. From the foregoing, Mopamuro’s agitation to have the 2027 HOR seat is not out of order. The point has also been made for the entrenchment of fairness and equity as well as the sustenance of unity within the region. One can not also rule out the fact that, with the exception of 2003 election, Mopamuro has consistently fielded candidates against candidates from Yagba West and Yagba East.

Twice in 2019 and 2023, the ruling APC conceded its tickets to Mopamuro. Both chances were lost more to internal divisions within the local government. Power is not given; it is taken. The bottomline is that 2027 election doesn’t look like one to be determined by entitlement. Rotation is achievable only by negotiation. Rotation is not a law. Mopamuro must work hard for it, speak with one voice, and present a formidable candidate, as a prerequisite for negotiation.

Effective Representation As a Factor

While the idea of rotation may seem appealing, the performance of the sitting member and the capacity to drive meaningful development and growth are key factors in effective representation, which should not be overlooked going into the 2027 election. Rotation may seem like a fair and equitable approach, but the electorate is also aware it can lead to a lack of continuity and consistency in representation. This also can result in a lack of accountability, as representatives may not feel compelled to deliver on their promises. Furthermore, rotation can lead to a focus on short-term gains rather than long-term development. Again, anyone thinking of running against an incumbent must make a careful examination of whether it can be done.

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In the modern-day election pattern in Nigeria, incumbents win elections about 85 percent. An entrenched incumbent is even harder to beat than a more recently elected one. Here are some factors to consider before going into the decision of whether a challenge could be successful. The first step is to consider the overall political environment and the general mood of the electorate. Generally, there are two things that should worry incumbents.

One is whether the electorate perceives that things are on the right track. The other is whether the electorate thinks the incumbent care about them. For any sitting representative who receives favourable ratings from his people—based on these two factors—it will require an out-of
-this-world strategy for any successful challenge to happen.

● Debo Alabi, a public affairs analyst and native of Yagba, writes from Lekki, Lagos

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Opinion

MEMORY LANE: West-Idahosa reflects on his earthly sojourn to commemorate birthday

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By Dr. Ehiogie West-Idahosa, SAN.

By the Grace of God, I am one year older today. I was born on this day many years ago in St. Philomena’s Hospital, Benin City to Late Hon. Justice Joseph Oghogho Idahosa and late Mrs.Josphine Idahosa.

“I am grateful to God for His mercies and benevolence in my life. I have luckily navigated many dangerous moments in life by the Grace of Almighty God and the prayers of my families and friends. They include police shooting incident at ibadan as a young lawyer, nearly drowning in a big river, receiving middle voltage electricity shock as a child and a host of other mines that are daily encountered in life. I thank God for my ancestry. I thank my late parents for my education and upbringing. I am lucky to have an an extremely good wife and very wonderful children. I thank my brothers, sisters and extended family members for who they are. Very supportive people. I have wonderful friends all over Nigeria and beyond.

I have been lucky to be trusted by by different levels of the Nigerian society to serve in one capacity or the other. By the authority of others, I have served as Sanitary Prefect in Edo College, Benin City, Public relations officer of the Law Students Association, Uniben, Public relations officer of the students’ union, Uniben, branch secretary of Benin branch of NBA, Edo State Secretary of the defunct National Republican Convention (NRC), and thrice elected to the House Representatives, where I served Ovia Federal Constituency, Edo State and Nigeria to the best of my ability and energy. My sojourn in the House is known to many and they are the only persons who can write my testimonial.

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I am grateful to Nigeria, Edo people and in particular, the wonderful constituents of Ovia Federal Constituency ( living and dead) for the opportunities given to me to serve them amongst so many ably qualified persons.

I enjoyed the good old Nigeria and hope that it can be recreated for the benefit of the majority of our country men and women. We had patriotic and well meaning leaders who were committed to good governance. They were industrious and nationalistic within the limits of available resources, knowledge, science and energy of that time. It has been tough for our country men and women in the last ten years or so.

But, the Tinubu regime seems to be willing to make big economic decisions in the hope of repositioning our national economy to serve all of us. Some of these decisions have been hurtful in many ways to the majority of our people as they were not incrementally implemented. But, these decisions would only be appreciated, if the dividends intended, begin to trickle down soon. This would mean more fiscal and monetary policy discipline on the part of government itself. There must be a cut on the cost of governance. There is too much of Holly wood life style on the part of public officials. The essence of governance is to serve the people, not to show off with public funds held in trust for the public. They are not personal funds and must be spent prudently for the good of all.

The fight against corruption must be made real. It must be carried out with a sense of equality before the law. As long as many remain untouchable by the law, the fight would remain cosmetic and negatively affect the quality of lives of all of us as funds made to develop our country would continue to vanish into thin air

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The increased funding of the component states of Nigeria by Tinubu’s administration is good news indeed. It means that the governors can truly do extraordinary things for residents of the various states, as part of the renewed hope project. They have to noticeably decrease the ratio of infant and maternal mortality. They must work to provide more functional health care centers in urban and rural areas, pay real attention to education from primary to post secondary levels. Significantly, they must give new impetus to tecnical education. It is the way to go in the new world order. The state governments must commit to massive provision of infrastructure in key areas of the economy. They must take a good look at the need to generate more electricity in their states to boost economic development. They must venture into rail transportation. It is the easiest way to move people around in large numbers. It can be done. Lagos state is already leading the way. Others can do the same. It is a matter of exhibiting the requisite political will to do it.

State governments know the importance of security in their respective states. It is not enough to openly support the police with funds, it is equally important to set up covert informal intelligence networks across the states to provide information for the use of formal security apparatus in carrying their out functions.

Nigeria can be great again. It has the raw population, man power, presence in diaspora, sufficient elites in various spheres of life to drive the renaissance.

God bless Nigeria and best wishes to all of us.

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Dr. Ehiogie West-Idahosa, SAN

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