Foreign
The odds against war in the Middle East
The winds of an all-out regional war and a possible Third World War are right now blowing fiercely in the Middle East. Countries including Nigeria are evacuating their nationals from the region and those without means to do so are asking them to leave as quickly as feasible.
For about a year now Israel has been bombing the Palestinian Gaza strip to smithereens in retaliation for the killing of several Israelis revelling in an outdoor event inside Israel last October by members of the Palestinian Hamas group. In the attack, the Hamas operatives took with them scores of Israelis in addition to the killing
In response, the Israeli government led by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu vowed to exact a severe retribution on Hamas by going after its infrastructure in the Gaza strip. In the process about 50,000 Palestinians have been killed in the non-stop combined bombing raids and ground attacks by the Israeli Defence Forces. The Israelis too have suffered thousands killed in pitch battles with the Hamas operatives.
Shunning calls across the world for a ceasefire and to allow humanitarian convoys to convey relief supplies get to the besieged Palestinians, Israel had carried on its relentless aerial bombing and ground attacks indiscriminately targeting hospitals, schools, worship places, residential areas, water and electricity plants and other critical infrastructure.
To the north of Israel in southern Lebanon, the Lebanese guerrilla group Hizbollah which supports Hamas had been launching intermittent attacks on targets in Israel while the latter has been engaged in Gaza. The Israeli army’s engagement against Hizbollah took a turn for the worst recently when its leader Hassan Nasrallah and several of the group’s leaders were killed in coordinated bomb blasts through their pagers using electronic timing devices to detonate hidden bombs placed in the pagers. Israel has followed up its aerial bombing of Lebanon with ground attacks intended to smash Hizbollah and its infrastructure in Lebanon.
In retaliation last week, Iran to which Hizbollah is affiliated, launched hundreds of missiles some of them hypersonic on targets including the strategic Nevatzim Airforce home to some of Israel’s cutting edge fighter airplanes and the headquarters of the Israeli foreign Intelligence out-fit MOSSAD in Herzliyya district (named after Theodor Herzl, the founder of the World Zionist movement). Iran said the attacks were carried out in response to the killing of the Hizbollah leader and his associated and vowed that should Israel launch any counter attack, Iran with greater force.
Israel has promised to respond to these missile attacks ‘’at a time of its choosing’’. Analysts looking at implication of this statement have zeroed in on some scenarios that the possible Israeli strike will take.
As there are no land borders between Israel and Iran the possibility of such an attack will most likely be launched by air. Israel could decide to respond in kind by missiles and Unarmed Air Vehicles (UAVs, also known as Drones) targeted at sensitive Iranian installations like air and army bases. It could also target refineries, arms production and headquarters of the Iranian defence and intelligence establishment, especially the elite Iranian Revolutionary Guards.
Israel could also send squadrons of its air force to bomb targets deep in Iran. For this, the Israeli air force may opt to use land air bases in Cyprus or Azerbaijan. Israel could also request the United States to allow it use its aircraft Carrier stationed nearby in the gulf. There is also the option of using the huge US base in nearby Qatar.
For Israel to exact retribution on Iran it must be commensurate or even more that what Iran did with its recent strike. And I believe in their preparations for such, Prime Minister Netanyahu and Defence Minister Yoav Gallant would not rule out the nuclear option.
For Israel all of these scenarios are fraught with heavy implications.
Using air bases in both Cyprus and Azerbaijan will certainly be balked at by Erdogan’s Turkey. Both countries are deep sore points for Turkey and using any or both of them to attack Iran will draw serious reservations among the Turkish population. This is in addition to the unmanageable blowbacks that will likely follow the use of such option. Using this option also will not afford the Israeli planes the needed surprise element as mid-air refuelling and air manoeuvres on the way to bombing Iran will be picked up by radars.
And in the unlikely case of some of the planes evading detection and dropping their payloads, they may not return safely back. Although much has been made about the stealth and radar evading capabilities of the American made F-35 stealth fighter planes which are in the inventories of the Israeli air force, it will not be beyond the capabilities of the Russians, Turks and even the Iranians to detect the movement of those planes at some point.
In planning an air invasion of Iran, the Israelis would certainly reflect on the incident in 1980 when American Delta Special Forces failed in their attempt to rescue American hostages held by the Iranians following the Iranian revolution. Some reports had it that it was the Soviets who tampered with the communications of the American Special Forces which in turn resulted in the helicopters carry the forces clashing against each other.
In the present scenario it will not be out of place to expect the Russians, Turks and Iranians who have assets in the vicinity to track the movement of Israeli planes towards Iran and proceed to thwart their mission.
Sending using agents in Iran to plant and detonate bombs in selected Iranian targets is something the Israelis have done before. But the commensurate damage in this regard would not match the scale of what Iran did to Israel. And the danger involved in such operations in terms of likely capture of the agents and malfunctioning of the devices could result in terrible consequences for Israel.
Israel could also consider using nuclear bombs on Iran. But that will be suicidal. First the radiation effects could drift far beyond Iran and spread throughout the region endangering the population of other countries. Secondly if Israel does not have first strike nuclear capability to knockout Iran’s counter strike abilities then it will be a worthless effort. In such a scenario, Israel will be a target not only the Iranians but other countries in the region as well.
Let us face the reality; between Israel and Iran there is a state of mutually assured destruction. A war between both countries under the present circumstances would not be limited to them but would drag in other significant parties as well. Meir Dagan the former Chief of the Israel’s MOSSAD cautions that Israel should not contemplate going into a war with Iran alone. He wants the US and its allies to help Israel do the job. But Iran has warned that any US involvement would result in its assets in the region being legitimate targets for Iranian attacks.
That means the huge US base in Qatar and others in Saudi Arabia will come under attack from Iran. And there is a distinct possibility that the oil infrastructure in Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and other gulf states will be affected. Iran could also shut down the strategic straits of Hormuz through which about a third of global oil shipping passes through. All these will lead to an immediate spike in global oil prices resulting in serious negative consequences for the world economy.
Is there a way out of this looming quagmire?
My take is that Saudi Arabia and other gulf states who stand in the line of fire will try to persuade Russia, China the US and other parties to prevail on Iran to allow Israel as a face saving measure ‘’avenge’’ the strike on it by Iran in a certain way agreed by all the parties. As arranged, Iran will refrain from retaliation.
And then there will be strident calls for restraint and de-escalation. And there will be secret negotiations between Iran and Israel brokered by Russian, US, China and Saudi Arabia. All issues like the Palestinian question, the Iran nuclear plans, guarantees of Israel’s security in the region and security of oil infrastructure will be on the table.
Similar diplomatic conclave has happened before during the 1973 war between Egypt and Syria on the one hand and Israel on the other. That war went to the brink of nuclear war as the Arab forces came to within a sight of defeating Israel with only option left was to use nuclear weapons on Egypt.
A deal was done whereby the US provided satellite images of the Egyptian army formations in the Sinai to the Israeli army to through a gap and surround the Egyptian army. This strategic manoeuvre resulted in a ceasefire and for secret negotiations to commence between Egypt and Israel leading to the historic Camp David Accords in 1977.
The Iranians too are not new to this type of diplomatic manoeuvres. The hostilities that had existed between Iran and the US following the Iranian revolution did not deter both from negotiating secretly on the Iran-Contra deal.
In the present circumstances where the world is on the brink nobody would want a regional war in the Middle East as a trigger. Where the only alternative left is the devil’s alternative of a nuclear war, all the major parties involved certainly find a way to prevent it in view of the consequences.
*Decry USAID funding cut
By Francesca Hangeior
The Federal Government and stakeholders, has applauded the European Union for funding a project aimed at advocating the rights of Persons with Disability in the wake of the halt in funding by the United States Agency for International Development.
They gave the tributes at the official launch of the Disability Rights Advocacy Project for Inclusive Development, a three-year initiative co-funded by the EU in collaboration with the Christian Blind Mission held in Abuja.
The Executive Secretary of the National Commission for Persons with Disabilities, Ayuba Burki, described the project as a welcome development.
He said, “This project is very commendable. As it is a three-year project, it is our desire that this will go as planned for all persons with disability to be involved. Disability programmes are not exclusively the purview of some persons in organisations.
“It means all hands must be on deck, and we must achieve our set goals. So I am delighted and look forward to a successful implementation of this programme in the next three years. We call on other partners to follow suit so that at the end of the day, people living with disabilities can heave a sigh of relief.”
Burki also rued the funding cut of USAID by United States President Donald Trump, saying it will put pressure on many third-world countries.
He also sees it as an opportunity for leaders in the affected countries to look inward and find solutions.
“I will call on African leaders to take up this challenge and look inward. I believe that USAIÐ was doing a great job. But we cannot abandon caring for our people because it pulled out. We need to look inward and re-strategise.
“Who knows? This may be a blessing in disguise. So I don’t see a cause to worry. But it is an opportunity to look inward and solve funding and reprioritise our priorities as a nation. We will be fine at the end of the day,” he stated.
The Founder of The Albino Foundation, Chief Jack Epelle also shared his sentiments.
Epelle warned that Nigeria and many other developing nations cannot continue to depend on USAID funding forever.
He said, “I think it’s a good and bad omen. It is a good omen because it is high time we begin to take our eyes off development funding and begin to develop ourselves so that we, in turn, can fund others. This kind of event should propel us to look inward and begin to see how to meet the needs of the people by ourselves.
“The bad omen is that there are projects USAID has started and individuals were employed. Some projects were expected to run for three to five years. It will create hardships. Several children will be out of school, and many families not sure of where their next meal will come will suffer.”
He, however, praised the European Union for agreeing to undertake the advocacy of persons with disabilities, especially at the grassroots.
Earlier in his address, the CBM Global Head of Programme Implementation, Bright Ekweremadu, said the project couldn’t have come at a better time.
Ekweremadu also hailed the EU for taking up the bold initiative to continue funding humanitarian projects at a time when President Donald Trump halted USAID funding in Africa and other regions.
He said, “We all know what recently happened to USAID. So when you see a global donor or funder for programmes like this, we need to prostrate and think of them for coming to the aid of the less privileged and vulnerable in society.
“Today is a bold declaration of purpose in a shared commitment to a future where every Nigerian, regardless of their ability, has a right to dignity, opportunity and full participation in the society.
“It is our collective response to the persistent inequalities that persons with disabilities face every single day of their lives, sometimes consciously from us. Together, let us build a Nigeria where disability will be recognised, every voice will be heard, and no one is left behind.”
While appreciating the gesture from the audience, the head of the European Union delegation, Wynyfred Egbuson, emphasised the need to advocate for the cause of the less privileged in society.
According to her, the EU-CBM project was signed after a conscious and rigorous exercise of assessing its possible impact.
She said, “Today’s event is an outcome of the long process that started in June 2024 with a call for proposals by civil society organisations and human rights organisations within and outside Nigeria through a competitive and rigorous process that entails three stages of assessment.
“The CBM and its co-implementing partners were selected from 31 applications, leading to the project being launched today. It is estimated that over 25 million people live with disability in Nigeria. This translates to one in every 10 Nigerians.
“Unfortunately, persons with disability are among the most vulnerable members of our society. They face social stigma, exploitation, discrimination and exclusion from participating in the society. We believe that a lot still needs to be done.”
China will impose 84 percent tariffs on US imports, up from 34 percent, the finance ministry said Wednesday, hours after similar levies by the United States came into force.
US President Donald Trump’s latest salvo of tariffs came into effect on dozens of trading partners Wednesday, including punishing 104 percent duties on imports of Chinese products.
Beijing has consistently opposed tariff rises and said Wednesday it would take “firm and forceful” steps to protect its interests.
Its finance ministry later said in a statement that “additional tariff rates” on imports originating in the United States would “rise from 34 percent to 84 percent”, effective from 12:01 pm on Thursday.
“The tariff escalation against China by the United States simply piles mistakes on top of mistakes (and) severely infringes on China’s legitimate rights and interests,” the ministry said.
Washington’s moves “severely damage the multilateral rules-based trade system”, it added.
In a separate statement, Beijing’s commerce ministry said it would blacklist six American artificial intelligence firms, including Shield AI Inc. and Sierra Nevada Corp.
The companies had either sold arms to Taiwan or collaborated on “military technology” with the island, the commerce ministry said.
The European Commission said on Monday it had offered a “zero-for-zero” tariff deal to avert a trade war with U.S. President Donald Trump as EU ministers agreed to prioritise negotiations, while striking back with 25% tariffs on some U.S. imports.
The 27-nation bloc faces 25% import tariffs on steel and aluminium and cars and broader tariffs of 20% from Wednesday for almost all other goods under Trump’s policy to hit countries he says impose high barriers to U.S. imports.
On Monday evening, the Commission proposed its first retaliatory tariffs at 25% on a range of U.S. imports in response to Trump’s steel and aluminium tariffs rather than the broader levies.
However, the list was shortened after the EU executive bowed to pressure from member states and removed bourbon, wine and dairy after Trump threatened a 200% counter-tariff on EU alcoholic drinks. France and Italy, major exporters of wine and spirits, were particularly concerned.
EU trade chief Maros Sefcovic said earlier on Monday the retaliation would impact less than the previously announced 26 billion euros ($28.4 billion). The tariffs for most of the goods will go into effect May 16 and some from December 1.
Ministers overseeing trade met in Luxembourg on Monday to debate the EU’s response and discuss relations with China. Many said the priority was to launch negotiations to remove Trump’s tariffs, rather than fight them.
Michal Baranowski, deputy economy minister of Poland, told a press conference after the meeting that his EU counterparts did not want to be “trigger-happy”.
Sefcovic said discussions with Washington were at an early stage and that he had offered “zero-for-zero” tariffs for cars and other industrial products, expressing hope that discussions could begin.
However, Trump’s top trade adviser on Monday dismissed tech-billionaire Elon Musk’s push for “zero tariffs” between the U.S. and Europe, calling the Tesla CEO a “car assembler” reliant on parts from other countries.
“While the EU remains open to – and strongly prefers – negotiation, we will not wait endlessly,” Sefcovic said, adding the bloc would push ahead with countermeasures and steps to avoid floods of diverted imports.
The EU is set to approve the first retaliatory measures this week. The bloc will start collecting the tariffs on April 15, with a second tranche starting a month later.
The removal of bourbon from the list of items subject to the EU’s retaliatory tariffs on U.S. imports “would be great news, and we are hopeful this is the case,” said Chris Swonger, chief executive of the Distilled Spirits Council of the United States. “It would be the first step toward getting the U.S.-EU spirits sectors back to zero-for-zero tariffs and untangling distilled spirits products from these wider trade disputes.”
EU KEEPS ALL RETALIATION OPTIONS OPEN
The bloc is expected to produce a larger package of countermeasures by the end of April, as a response to U.S. car and broader tariffs.
Sefcovic said the EU was ready to consider all retaliatory options. One is the EU’s Anti-Coercion Instrument, which allows it to target U.S. services or to limit U.S. companies’ access to EU public procurement tenders.
“We are prepared to use every tool to protect (the) single market,” he said, echoing the views of French Trade Minister Laurent Saint-Martin.
In a war of tariffs on goods, Brussels has less to target than Washington, given EU goods imports from the U.S. totalled 334 billion euros ($366.2 billion) in 2024, against 532 billion euros of EU exports to the U.S.
Some EU countries, particularly those exposed to trade with the United States, urged caution. Irish Foreign Minister Simon Harris described the Anti-Coercion Instrument as “very much the nuclear option.”
Baranowski of Poland said EU members were willing to keep options open, with a stress on proportionality.
“There were various ideas put on the table. Some countries mentioned services. Others didn’t. Some countries mentioned digital services, others didn’t,” he said.
Outgoing German Economy Minister Robert Habeck said the EU should realise it was in a strong position – if it was united.
“The stock markets are already collapsing and the damage could become even greater … America is in a position of weakness,” he said in Luxembourg.
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