Foreign
The odds against war in the Middle East
The winds of an all-out regional war and a possible Third World War are right now blowing fiercely in the Middle East. Countries including Nigeria are evacuating their nationals from the region and those without means to do so are asking them to leave as quickly as feasible.
For about a year now Israel has been bombing the Palestinian Gaza strip to smithereens in retaliation for the killing of several Israelis revelling in an outdoor event inside Israel last October by members of the Palestinian Hamas group. In the attack, the Hamas operatives took with them scores of Israelis in addition to the killing
In response, the Israeli government led by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu vowed to exact a severe retribution on Hamas by going after its infrastructure in the Gaza strip. In the process about 50,000 Palestinians have been killed in the non-stop combined bombing raids and ground attacks by the Israeli Defence Forces. The Israelis too have suffered thousands killed in pitch battles with the Hamas operatives.
Shunning calls across the world for a ceasefire and to allow humanitarian convoys to convey relief supplies get to the besieged Palestinians, Israel had carried on its relentless aerial bombing and ground attacks indiscriminately targeting hospitals, schools, worship places, residential areas, water and electricity plants and other critical infrastructure.
To the north of Israel in southern Lebanon, the Lebanese guerrilla group Hizbollah which supports Hamas had been launching intermittent attacks on targets in Israel while the latter has been engaged in Gaza. The Israeli army’s engagement against Hizbollah took a turn for the worst recently when its leader Hassan Nasrallah and several of the group’s leaders were killed in coordinated bomb blasts through their pagers using electronic timing devices to detonate hidden bombs placed in the pagers. Israel has followed up its aerial bombing of Lebanon with ground attacks intended to smash Hizbollah and its infrastructure in Lebanon.
In retaliation last week, Iran to which Hizbollah is affiliated, launched hundreds of missiles some of them hypersonic on targets including the strategic Nevatzim Airforce home to some of Israel’s cutting edge fighter airplanes and the headquarters of the Israeli foreign Intelligence out-fit MOSSAD in Herzliyya district (named after Theodor Herzl, the founder of the World Zionist movement). Iran said the attacks were carried out in response to the killing of the Hizbollah leader and his associated and vowed that should Israel launch any counter attack, Iran with greater force.
Israel has promised to respond to these missile attacks ‘’at a time of its choosing’’. Analysts looking at implication of this statement have zeroed in on some scenarios that the possible Israeli strike will take.
As there are no land borders between Israel and Iran the possibility of such an attack will most likely be launched by air. Israel could decide to respond in kind by missiles and Unarmed Air Vehicles (UAVs, also known as Drones) targeted at sensitive Iranian installations like air and army bases. It could also target refineries, arms production and headquarters of the Iranian defence and intelligence establishment, especially the elite Iranian Revolutionary Guards.
Israel could also send squadrons of its air force to bomb targets deep in Iran. For this, the Israeli air force may opt to use land air bases in Cyprus or Azerbaijan. Israel could also request the United States to allow it use its aircraft Carrier stationed nearby in the gulf. There is also the option of using the huge US base in nearby Qatar.
For Israel to exact retribution on Iran it must be commensurate or even more that what Iran did with its recent strike. And I believe in their preparations for such, Prime Minister Netanyahu and Defence Minister Yoav Gallant would not rule out the nuclear option.
For Israel all of these scenarios are fraught with heavy implications.
Using air bases in both Cyprus and Azerbaijan will certainly be balked at by Erdogan’s Turkey. Both countries are deep sore points for Turkey and using any or both of them to attack Iran will draw serious reservations among the Turkish population. This is in addition to the unmanageable blowbacks that will likely follow the use of such option. Using this option also will not afford the Israeli planes the needed surprise element as mid-air refuelling and air manoeuvres on the way to bombing Iran will be picked up by radars.
And in the unlikely case of some of the planes evading detection and dropping their payloads, they may not return safely back. Although much has been made about the stealth and radar evading capabilities of the American made F-35 stealth fighter planes which are in the inventories of the Israeli air force, it will not be beyond the capabilities of the Russians, Turks and even the Iranians to detect the movement of those planes at some point.
In planning an air invasion of Iran, the Israelis would certainly reflect on the incident in 1980 when American Delta Special Forces failed in their attempt to rescue American hostages held by the Iranians following the Iranian revolution. Some reports had it that it was the Soviets who tampered with the communications of the American Special Forces which in turn resulted in the helicopters carry the forces clashing against each other.
In the present scenario it will not be out of place to expect the Russians, Turks and Iranians who have assets in the vicinity to track the movement of Israeli planes towards Iran and proceed to thwart their mission.
Sending using agents in Iran to plant and detonate bombs in selected Iranian targets is something the Israelis have done before. But the commensurate damage in this regard would not match the scale of what Iran did to Israel. And the danger involved in such operations in terms of likely capture of the agents and malfunctioning of the devices could result in terrible consequences for Israel.
Israel could also consider using nuclear bombs on Iran. But that will be suicidal. First the radiation effects could drift far beyond Iran and spread throughout the region endangering the population of other countries. Secondly if Israel does not have first strike nuclear capability to knockout Iran’s counter strike abilities then it will be a worthless effort. In such a scenario, Israel will be a target not only the Iranians but other countries in the region as well.
Let us face the reality; between Israel and Iran there is a state of mutually assured destruction. A war between both countries under the present circumstances would not be limited to them but would drag in other significant parties as well. Meir Dagan the former Chief of the Israel’s MOSSAD cautions that Israel should not contemplate going into a war with Iran alone. He wants the US and its allies to help Israel do the job. But Iran has warned that any US involvement would result in its assets in the region being legitimate targets for Iranian attacks.
That means the huge US base in Qatar and others in Saudi Arabia will come under attack from Iran. And there is a distinct possibility that the oil infrastructure in Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and other gulf states will be affected. Iran could also shut down the strategic straits of Hormuz through which about a third of global oil shipping passes through. All these will lead to an immediate spike in global oil prices resulting in serious negative consequences for the world economy.
Is there a way out of this looming quagmire?
My take is that Saudi Arabia and other gulf states who stand in the line of fire will try to persuade Russia, China the US and other parties to prevail on Iran to allow Israel as a face saving measure ‘’avenge’’ the strike on it by Iran in a certain way agreed by all the parties. As arranged, Iran will refrain from retaliation.
And then there will be strident calls for restraint and de-escalation. And there will be secret negotiations between Iran and Israel brokered by Russian, US, China and Saudi Arabia. All issues like the Palestinian question, the Iran nuclear plans, guarantees of Israel’s security in the region and security of oil infrastructure will be on the table.
Similar diplomatic conclave has happened before during the 1973 war between Egypt and Syria on the one hand and Israel on the other. That war went to the brink of nuclear war as the Arab forces came to within a sight of defeating Israel with only option left was to use nuclear weapons on Egypt.
A deal was done whereby the US provided satellite images of the Egyptian army formations in the Sinai to the Israeli army to through a gap and surround the Egyptian army. This strategic manoeuvre resulted in a ceasefire and for secret negotiations to commence between Egypt and Israel leading to the historic Camp David Accords in 1977.
The Iranians too are not new to this type of diplomatic manoeuvres. The hostilities that had existed between Iran and the US following the Iranian revolution did not deter both from negotiating secretly on the Iran-Contra deal.
In the present circumstances where the world is on the brink nobody would want a regional war in the Middle East as a trigger. Where the only alternative left is the devil’s alternative of a nuclear war, all the major parties involved certainly find a way to prevent it in view of the consequences.
Foreign
‘Evil’ Southport killer jailed for minimum 52 years
Southport killer Axel Rudakubana has been sentenced to a minimum of 52 years for the “sadistic” murders of three young girls in an attack described as “shocking” and “pure evil”.
Elsie Dot Stancombe, seven, Bebe King, six, and Alice da Silva Aguiar, nine, died while eight other children and two adults – dance class leader Leanne Lucas and businessman Jonathan Hayes – were seriously wounded.
The 18-year-old refused to come into the courtroom as he was sentenced at Liverpool Crown Court, having been removed from the dock earlier due to disruptive behaviour – which included demands to see a paramedic and shouts of “I feel ill”.
Sentencing him, judge Mr Justice Goose said: “Many who have heard the evidence might describe what he did as evil, who could dispute it?”
Earlier, the details of Rudakubana’s crimes were laid out in court for the first time in graphic detail – including CCTV and dashboard camera footage from outside the Hart Space studios on Hart Street.
The court heard how, just after 11:45 BST on 29 July, Rudakubana moved through the sold-out Taylor Swift-themed dance workshop, organised by Ms Lucas, “systematically” stabbing young girls as they sat making friendship bracelets and singing along to Swift’s music.
Prosecutor Deanna Heer KC also described how Rudakubana gloated about the attacks as he was escorted through Copy Lane police station after his arrest – saying he was “glad the children were dead”.
The teenager had booked a taxi to take him to Hart Street after leaving his home in Old School Close, Banks, west Lancashire, at 11:10 BST, the court was told.
Ms Heer played footage of Rudakubana asking the driver to point him to the address of the dance class – before getting out without paying.
The driver’s dashboard camera also captured Rudakubana walk up the stairs of the Hart Space building to the first-floor studio which had 26 children, Ms Lucas, and her colleague and friend Heidi Liddle inside.
Seconds later, the sounds of screaming children filled the courtroom and the footage showed girls streaming out of the Hart Space dance studio.
The families of the victims cried in the public gallery as Ms Heer played footage of three of the girls staggering into the street and collapsing – including two of the survivors and Alice.
Unlike Bebe and Elsie Dot, Alice had managed to get out of the building despite her grave injuries, but collapsed by the car of a woman who had arrived to pick up her daughter.
Inside the studio, Bebe had been subjected to 122 knife wounds, while Elsie Dot had 85.
Ms Liddle and one other child were hiding in a locked toilet on a landing outside – Ms Liddle later describing how she realised that some of the children had not escaped when she heard them begging Rudakubana to stop.
The police arrived at Hart Street shortly before 11:59 BST – three officers and a member of the public, window-cleaner Joel Verite, charged up those stairs to find Rudakubana stood over the body of Bebe King holding a knife.
Police body-camera footage showed him tackled to the floor as Mr Verite shouted in utter shock and horror at the injuries he saw had been inflicted on Bebe.
A short time later Ms Liddle and the child hiding with her were seen sobbing in terror and relief as the police told them it was safe to emerge.
‘We were easy prey’
One of the survivors, a seven-year-old girl referred to as Child A, had been pulled back inside the building by Rudakubana as she tried to escape and was stabbed repeatedly, before managing to stagger into the street where she fell to the ground.
A statement written by the mother of Child A, read by Ms Heer, said her father had been “broken” by what happened to his daughter.
“Our daughter has not only experienced the most violent, frenzied attack on her body, but she’s witnessed so much horror too.”
The leader of the dance class, Ms Lucas, who read her statement in court, looked around the packed courtroom at the family members of fellow victims and survivors as she spoke.
She said: “He targeted us because we were women and girls, vulnerable and easy prey.
“To discover that he had always set out to hurt the vulnerable is beyond comprehensible.
“For Alice, Elsie, Bebe, Heidi and the surviving girls, I’m surviving for you.”
Victim impact statements were also read out by Ms Heer, in which the grieving families of two of the murder victims branded their daughters’ killer as “pure evil” and said his actions had have left them in “continuous pain”.
Stan Reiz KC, mitigating, told the court Rudakubana had appeared to have been a “normal child” until he reached 13.
Mr Reiz said: “There is no psychiatric evidence before the court that could suggest that a mental disorder contributed to the defendant’s actions.
“However, he did make a transition from a normal, well-disciplined child to someone who was capable of committing acts of such shocking and senseless violence.”
In his sentencing remarks, Justice Goose said: “I am sure Rudakubana had the settled determination to carry out these offences and had he been able to, he would have killed each and every child – all 26 of them.”
Justice Goose confirmed the offences did not reach the legal definition of terrorism because he did not kill to further a political, religious or ideological cause.
However, he told the packed courtroom that whether the “motivation was terrorism or not misses the point”.
“What he did on 29 July last year has caused such shock and revulsion to the whole nation, that it must be viewed as being at the extreme level of crime”, the judge said.
“His culpability, and the harm he caused and intended, were at the highest.”
Rudakubana was sentenced for three counts of murder, 10 of attempted murder, one of producing the biological toxin ricin and one of possession of an Al Qaeda training manual, an offence under the Terrorism Act.
In a statement after the hearing, Elsie’s family offered their gratitude to the emergency services who responded to the incident.
“We are so thankful for their bravery, compassion and strength which should serve as an inspiration to everybody,” they said.
The family also thanked Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer, King Charles and the Prince and Princess of Wales for arranging private meetings where they offered their condolences.
Earlier, the prime minister said “the thoughts of the entire nation” were with the families of Rudakubana’s victims.
Sir Keir said: “I want to say directly to the survivors, families and community of Southport – you are not alone. We stand with you in your grief.
“What happened in Southport was an atrocity and as the judge has stated, this vile offender will likely never be released.
“After one of the most harrowing moments in our country’s history we owe it to these innocent young girls and all those affected to deliver the change that they deserve.”
Credit: BBC
Foreign
Ukraine conducts nationwide raids over illegal weapons trade
Ukrainian law enforcement agencies began the conduct of 1,000 raids nationwide on Thursday to stop the illegal sale of weapons and ammunition, police said.
The proliferation of arms in the war-battered country since the Russian invasion in early 2022 has raised concerns about weapons smuggling both inside Ukraine and among its Western-backed allies.
“The main goal is to shut down sales and storage channels as well as to seize trophy weapons” taken from Russian soldiers as well as “ammunition and explosives from illicit trafficking,” the national police force said in a social media post.
The statement said the ringleaders could face up to seven years in prison, adding that more details of the probe would be released later.
The force also issued a video showing heavily armed police preparing to break down a door, seizing ammunition and cash.
The raids are the latest efforts by law enforcement to stamp out the illegal distribution of weapons in the country.
In September last year, police said they had thwarted an illegal arms smuggling operation in the Kyiv region, seizing some 40,000 euros worth of guns and ammunition.
And one month earlier, in the western Lviv region, police said they had seized assault rifles, more than 70 pistols, dozens of grenades, and almost 49,000 rounds of ammunition, local media reported.
AFP
Foreign
Trump orders raids on schools, churches, hospitals to enforce immigration arrests
President Donald Trump has authorised US immigration authorities to conduct arrests at schools, churches, and hospitals, reversing a long-standing policy that classified these locations as off-limits for enforcement.
This new directive ends more than a decade of restrictions that protected these “sensitive areas.” The change was announced in a statement by the Department of Homeland Security (DHS), which oversees Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) and Border Protection.
The DHS emphasised the need to eliminate spaces where individuals could evade arrest. “Criminals will no longer be able to hide in America’s schools and churches to avoid arrest,” the statement read.
“The Trump Administration will not tie the hands of our brave law enforcement and instead trusts them to use common sense,” according to The Guardian.
Acting DHS Secretary Benjamine Huffman issued the directive, which also reinstates the nationwide use of expedited removal. Under the policy, ICE is empowered to quickly deport undocumented individuals who cannot prove continuous residency in the U.S. for over two years.
These changes are part of a broader crackdown on immigration by the Trump administration. This week, the president signed several executive orders, including measures to suspend the refugee system, block an app facilitating U.S. entry, and enhance cooperation between ICE and local governments.
Tom Homan, Trump’s border czar, confirmed that ICE agents would begin immediate nationwide operations to arrest and deport undocumented individuals. “ICE officers across the country will be actively enforcing immigration laws,” Homan said in an interview.
However, the new policies have sparked widespread opposition from advocacy groups and religious leaders.
The Center for Law and Social Policy warned that the measures could have devastating impacts on immigrant families, particularly those with U.S.-citizen children.
The organisation expressed concern that fear of arrest might deter families from seeking medical care, disaster relief, and education, while also increasing the likelihood of children witnessing traumatic encounters with immigration officials.
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