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Africa not yet big players on 5G coverage

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By Sonny Aragba-Akpore

Despite spirited efforts by African countries to join the global community in the adoption of fifth generation (5G) technology,and the race for better internet services,less than six percent of the sub Saharan population has access to the technology.

While many countries are already providing robust services,Africa remains on the outskirts of 5G services.

The countries in Africa that have launched 5G networks, include South Africa with its roll out
In March 2022, when the Independent Communications Authority of South Africa (ICASA) sold spectrum across several bands.

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In Nigeria,MTN rolled out commercial 5G services in Lagos in 2022, with other roll out in Abuja, Port Harcourt, Ibadan, Kano, Owerri, and Maiduguri among others.

MTN Congo announced that it was the first country in Central Africa to deploy 5G.

In Botswana Orange deployed 5G technology to provide new services in the Gaborone and Francistown regions.
Other countries in Africa that have launched 5G Fixed Wireless Access (FWA) services include: Angola, Kenya, Zambia, and Zimbabwe.

Analysts say “5G’s potential is growing due to its ability to deliver fiber-like speeds. However, there are still challenges in the region, such as:
Urban areas are reaching their maximum capacity whereas a large portion of the population lives in rural areas.

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This explains why 5G adoption in the sub-Saharan region is currently below six percent “
Analysts report that 5G deployment in Africa faces many challenges, including Spectrum assignment,regulatory issues,infrastructure,security,financial resources among others.

“Spectrum is a limited resource that is already in use by other services, such as TV broadcasters and satellite operators. Governments need to open up frequencies and grant 5G licenses at reasonable prices. “

Infrastructure is another major challenge.

“5G networks require a large initial investment, including expensive devices, antennas, and Radio Access Network (RAN) hardware. The infrastructure needs to be fiberized to support 5G services.
Regulatory conditions also serve as challenges to deployment.

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For instance “regulatory authorities may not have started the process for licensing and granting frequencies in the right portion “
“Most of the equipment and devices required for 5G deployment need to be imported.”

There are also security challenges that make
5G technology vulnerable to cyber security threats, such as tracking calls and exposing user locations.

Adoption of 5G deployment may take longer than expected across the continent and may take even longer in some countries as a result of Socioeconomic considerations especially in terms of 5G pricing structures that need to be compatible with the economies of African countries.

Urban/rural drift is listed as a major challenge more so since
Urban areas may have reached maximum capacity due to site density and available spectrum.

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Analysts list Some strategies to address these challenges as “adapting legacy systems, Collaborating to enhance infrastructure, Future-proofing networks, Reusing existing spectrum assets, and Releasing low-band frequencies alongside mid-band frequencies. “

The International Telecommunication Union (ITU), says 5G coverage reached 40% of the world’s population in 2023 with an uneven coverage and distribution with developed countries having more coverage than low-income countries:
In Europe ,68% of the population is covered
Americas had 59% of the population covered while
Asia-Pacific has 42% of the population covered as at 2023.

Arab States have 12% of the population covered.

Commonwealth Independent of States (CIS) have 8% of the population covered.
ITU figures show Africa,s coverage rose to 6% of the population by 2023 .

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The ITU also notes that 90% of the world’s population is covered by 4G, but 55% of people without access to 4G live in low-income countries. In low-income countries, 3G is often the only technology available to connect to the Internet.

The ITU develops and adopts international regulations and global standards to enable the harmonization and implementation of broadband mobile networks.

The world’s first commercial 5G services launched in 2019 in South Korea, with the US, UK, Germany, and China quickly following. In most of the world, 5G is now blossoming.

The US now reports 5,000 cities covered, and China says it has over 250 million 5G subscriptions, served by two million 5G base stations.

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Network provider Ericsson says there will be one billion connections worldwide by the end of this year, beating 4G’s rollout by two years
With Ericsson predicting five billion 5G subscribers by 2028, the equivalent of 60 percent of the world’s population, it is possible to think that the whole world is adopting 5G – but we may be wrong. One entire continent is falling behind in 5G.

In Africa, around a dozen nations have launched services (Botswana, Kenya, Mauritius, Madagascar, Nigeria, Seychelles, South Africa, Tanzania, Togo, Zimbabwe, and Zambia) but Africa is a patchwork of 54 countries.

And penetration is predicted to be slow. By 2027, Ericsson predicts that 80 percent of phone users in Europe will have 5G service.

At the same time, 5G subscriptions in Africa, home to 1.4 billion people, will hit just 10 percent. Why will so few people in Africa get access to 5G services?
China, South Korea, the United Kingdom, Germany, and the United States are the leading countries with robust 5G coverage in the world.

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Since the first commercial launches of the fifth generation of mobile networks in late 2018, these five countries have emerged as leaders because multiple companies in these countries have deployed networks and are selling compatible devices.

Countries including Switzerland and Finland are up and comers in 5G development, as they have limited deployment.

In China there are three Companies leading in deployment.
The world’s largest 5G network was launched by the three largest Chinese network operators Oct 31, 2019, according to the state-run news agency Xinhua.

These are China Mobile, China Unicom, and China Telecom which all activated their networks in less than five months after they were issued 5G licenses. Each of the network operators offered their 5G services at $18 per month in 50 Chinese cities at the beginning of the launch.

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“What we are seeing is a concerted effort by the Chinese — the operators, vendors, and government regulators — to deploy 5G as quickly as possible,” Chris Nicoll, principal analyst at ACG Research, pointed this out in a Nov 1, 2019 SDxCentral article.

With all of these players working together, the three network operators had collectively deployed nearly 86,000 5G base stations peaked over 130,000 by the end of 2019.

The latter number breaks down into China Unicom and China telecom, with each planning to install 40,000 base stations, and the market leader China Mobile to install 50,000.This was the projection by 2019 but they have since overshot this by the beginning of 2024.

The Global System of Mobile Association (GSMA)expects 36% of China’s mobile users to be using 5G by 2025. That’s about 600 million subscribers, who would also make up 40% of the entire global 5G market by that year.

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This is all despite efforts made by the United States government to hamper the progress of Chinese vendors, though those efforts may affect how Chinese companies may expand into the global market.

In South Korea,SK Telecom and Korea Telecom run as the main competitors for the South Korean 5G market.

SK Telecom acquired spectrum in the 3.5 GHz and 28 GHz frequencies to prepare for deploying 5G.

In April of 2019, the Enterprise claimed to be the first mobile carrier in the world to launch 5G services to work on 5G smartphones.

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SK Telecom asserted an edge over rival Verizon, as the former launched 5G services available at the same time as Samsung Galaxy S10 5G smartphone launched in South Korea. Verizon launched mobile 5G services in the U.S. before a 5G enabled smartphone was available to U.S. consumers.

SK Telecom has also conducted tests with a 5G Standalone (SA) Core (a core not reliant on the 4G network) for their 5G network in cooperation with Samsung Electronics.

In early 2017, KT rolled out a 5G trial network ahead of the 2018 Winter Olympics in Pyeongchang, South Korea. However, the network was used primarily for demonstrations as it was not accessible by attendees’ smartphones.

At the time, the reception was lukewarm. Since then, KT’s network has expanded to cover the country’s most populated areas and the operator claims to have “the world’s first nationwide commercial 5G wireless network.”

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Consumers have played a crucial role in turning South Korea into a 5G country. According to research from IHS Markit, South Korean consumers have been purchasing 5G devices so quickly that stores can’t stay in stock. It only took 69 days for South Korea to reach one million subscribers to 5G services after the initial network launch.

The United Kingdom’s four Providers Launched their services throughout 2019.
EE, Vodafone UK, Three UK, and O2 UK launched commercial deployments in the U.K. These operators are using equipment namely from Ericsson, Nokia, and Huawei.
O2 UK is an exception in that it’s not using Huawei equipment, despite running 5G radio access network (ran) tests with it.

Three UK announced an unlimited data service that is speed-cap free at no extra cost.

To speed up rollouts of active 5G equipment, Vodafone UK reached a deal with O2 UK to share equipment, which can be seen with radio antennas on joint network sites.

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Cornerstone Telecommunications Infrastructure also manages shared facilities for operators.
Vodafone reached similar agreements in Italy and Spain for shared infrastructure.

In Germany,Vodafone and Deutsche Lead 5G Market.

In 2019, Vodafone Germany and Deutsche Telekom Germany launched 5G services in several cities. Vodafone Germany started with 20 cities and municipalities (including Cologne and Dusseldorf), while Deutsche Telekom Germany launched in only six (including Berlin and Munich). Vodafone plans to offer 5G services for $5.61 less per month than Deutsche Telekom.

When the German government auctioned off spectrum bands, a new player, 1&1 Drillisch, came into the picture by bidding $1.2 billion for 70 megahertz of spectrum.
However, the company waited till 2021 to use the new spectrum.

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In Sept. 2018 the Federal Communications Commission of the USA announced its 5G FAST Plan in an effort to advance the country’s position among the countries that have deployed 5G networks.

Part of this plan included spectrum auctions. In March 2016, prior to the official start of the 5G FAST plan, the FCC hosted an “incentive auction” that began repurposing spectrum and opening up low-band spectrum for wireless Broadband that can be used for 5G networks. A second auction of the upper 37 GHz, 39 GHz, and 47 GHz bands was set for 2019.

Money raised from these auctions was used to bring high-speed Broadband to the rural U.S.

In August 2020, T-Mobile US became the first telecom operator in the world to launch an SA 5G network with a 5G core. This came after a merger with Sprint was completed in April 2020.

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This is significant, in that T-Mobile US surpassed AT&T, Verizon, and SK Telecom. AT&T was the expected winner of the race to 5G in the U.S. and SK Telecom was the favorite to have the world’s first SA 5G network.

Both had plans to have a network with SA 5G architecture by early 2020 but did not meet those benchmarks.
AT&T and Verizon are still part of the 5G conversation in the U.S., although it’s debated which of those two was truly first to market.

In December 2018, AT&T was the first U.S. carrier to launch a standards-based mobile 5G network servicing a dozen cities, albeit without any 5G-enabled devices.

In October 2018, Verizon was the first to have a non-standards-based deployment that was actually a fixed Broadband network in four cities.

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In March 2019, Verizon turned on its standards-based 5G network in Minneapolis and Chicago, also before mobile 5G devices were available.

Verizon began selling Samsung Galaxy S10 5G on May 16, 2019 and claims it will have 5G in 30 cities by the end of 2019. As of August 2019, AT&T had deployed 5G in 21 cities and claimed the 5G network would be deployed in 30 states by the end of 2019.

The ITU continues to release information on standardizations that could cushion speedy deployment across global communities and markets especially in the race to actualise universal coverage by 2030 to meet and actualise the Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) target.

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Opinion

ISSA AREMU: “COMRADE-DG” AT 64

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By Tunde Olusunle

A studious interrogation of his educational background, offers some insight into the experiences which crystallised into his latter day exertions as a left-inclined personality and public figure. He studied Economics at the University of Port Harcourt, posting a second class upper performance with honours. He encountered acclaimed radical theorists, Karl Marx, Friedrich Engels, Vladimir Lenin and so on in the course of his studies and research. He was mentored by the famous, radical political economist, Bade Onimode, Emeritus Deputy Vice Chancellor of the University of Ibadan, who sadly passed at 57 in 2001, among a cream of other influencers. He would thereafter pursue a career in journalism, opting for the labour beat in a vocation which was undergoing very rapid professionalisation at the time.

The Kano-based *Triumph* newspapers was his first address back in 1981. It was a milieu during which almost each of Nigeria’s 19 states owned print and electronic media organisations. He thereafter underwent the mandatory one-year National Youth Service Corps, (NYSC), at the upcoming *Concord* newspapers in Lagos, between 1985 and 1986. He was engaged upon the completion of his NYSC, at the national headquarters of the Nigeria Labour Congress, (NLC). He thus became one of the country’s first university graduates employed by the nation’s foremost umbrella association for Nigerian workers. The gravitation of young technocrats like him was thenceforth going to energise the labour superstructure and impact public perception of the labour movement in Nigeria.

Born in Ijagbo in Kwara State, January 8, 1961, Issa Obalowu Aremu’s life is as cosmopolitan as can be imagined. His untiring quest for knowledge has taken him around and about his home country and beyond. He has traversed educational institutions in Ilorin, Kwara State; Zaria, Kaduna State; Port Harcourt, Rivers State; Jos, Plateau State; Maryland in the United States of America, (USA), and The Hague in the Netherlands. The journey of his life has been populated by significant milestones all the way. He headed the Economics and Research Department of the NLC headquarters domiciled in Lagos at the time, between 1987 and 1989. He was on the Senior Executive Course 27 of the National Institute for Policy and Strategic Studies, (NIPSS), graduating in 2005. He would later serve for two terms, 2013 to 2017, as Secretary-General of the Alumni Association of NIPSS, known by the acronym *AANI.* He was Vice President of the NLC for two terms, stretching from 2007 to 2015.

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While on this assignment, Issa Aremu was tapped as a Delegate of the Organised Labour, to the National Conference convened by Nigeria’s former President Goodluck Jonathan in 2014, and was Deputy Chairman of the Committee on Civil Society, Labour, Youths and Sports. Aremu previously described the Conference as “wasteful and diversionary.” He canvassed good governance, in place of talkshops. His perspective was different, however, after his participation in the Conference. He confirmed in a television interview that about 500 recommendations were proposed by the assembly to issues at the heart of the nation, which received concurrence by consensus. He alluded to labour-related issues such as workers’ remuneration; pensions and gratuities; hours of work and maternity duration as some of the issues canvassed by the organised Labour.

On May 18, 2021, Issa Aremu widely known in labour and trade union circles as *Comrade,* was appointed Director-General of the Michael Imoudu National Institute for Labour Studies, (MINILS), by the immediate past President, Muhammadu Buhari. The institute was established by the administration of Nigeria’s Second Republic President, Usman Shehu Shagari, in 1983. It has been suggested that Senate Leader in that era, Olusola Saraki, was largely influential in siting the institution in Kwara State, the charismatic politician’s home state. This tallies with the latter day disposition of the older Saraki’s son, Bukola, governor of Kwara State between 2003 to 2011, who substantially assisted with the construction and modernisation of structures in the institute. MINILS is supervised by the Federal Ministry of Labour and Employment. It is headquartered in Ilorin, Kwara State, with a number of regional outposts in select states across the country. Aremu thus became the very first core, career trade and labour practitioner to be appointed to the position.

Aremu has successfully undertaken the renovation of the training block of the institution and installed solar facilities for the supply of energy to the directorate, administrative, training and education blocks, as well as the resource centre of the organisation. From time to time, he rehabilitates the dirt access from the Ajasse-Ipo road approach, to the institution’s main gate, to ensure motorability. The said road is long overdue for asphalt or concrete tarring, both for the convenience of commuters and the health of other users, presently condemned to dangerous, daily dust inhalation. The parent ministry of the institute is reportedly collaborating with its parastatal, MINILS, and the Government of Kwara State to make the perimeters and precincts of the institution much better. Former Senate President, Bukola Saraki and his successor, Abdulfatah Ahmed, were very supportive of the physical development of the institute. They built accommodation facilities and resource infrastructures to augment the evolution of MINILS.

There is, reportedly, continuing tripartite dialogue about how best to relocate illegal vendors and hawkers lining the major approach entrance into MINILS, as soon as feasible. Parties in the talks are said to include the Kwara State Government; the Federal Ministry of Labour and Employment, and MINILS. The tertiary institution is reputed to be the only such establishment, solely devoted to capacity building for labour and trade unionists on the west coast of Africa. It is imperative to impose more sightly aesthetics around and about the 42 year old institute, both for Nigerian nationals, and potential foreign subscribers and partners. The sprawling beauty into which the older University of Ilorin within the same city as MINILS has evolved into, has become a veritable inspiration for other tertiary institutions in Kwara State. MINILS under Aremu’s leadership last year, successfully hosted the *10th National Labour Summit* in its Ilorin facility.

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Unknown to many, Issa Aremu is indeed a public scholar with many published works to his credit. These include: *The Crises of Pricing Petroleum Products in Nigeria,* and *The National Union of Textiles, Garments and Tailors,* both published in 2001. In 2015, four anthologies of Aremu’s essays were released namely: *Reflections on Friends, Comrades and Heroes;* *Reflections on Industry and Economy;* *Reflections on Labour and Trade Unions* and *Reflections on Africa and Global Affairs.* The reputable *Malthouse Press,* in Ibadan did professional justice to the aesthetics of the books. Creative alternative titles, however, should have been deployed to distinguish all four publications which titles begin with the word “Reflections.” Synonyms like “Thoughts,” “Musings,” even “Thinkings” are credible possibilities.

Aremu who still finds time to contribute to issues on the front burner of public discourse, from time to time, had previously functioned as Member, National Executive Council of the NLC and General Secretary, National Union of Textile, Garment and Tailoring Workers of Nigeria, (NUTGTWN). He was Board Member, National Salaries, Incomes and Wages Commission, (NSIWC), and Vice President, Industrial Global Union, representing over 50 million members globally. Apart from NIPSS, Aremu was at the Institute for Social Studies, (ISS), The Hague, Netherlands from 1990 to 1991, from where he obtained a masters degree in Labour and Development. He was also at the George Meany Centre of the National Labour College in the United States, in 2003.

Issa Aremu wears an almost permanent smile on his face. He attempted the governorship of Kwara State in 2019, on the platform of the Labour Party, (LP). His endeavours as a Comrade over time have been acknowledged at various times. A Member of the National Institute for Policy and Strategic Studies, (NIPSS), since 2005, the *mni* appellation is affixed to his name. He also received the Nigerian Productivity Order of Merit, (NPOM) in 2014, and the *Gold Prize Public Service Award* in 2024. He enjoys debate and cycling. He is happily married to Khadijat Aremu and blessed with children. His family has attuned to his lifelong career on the frontlines of trade and labour unionism.

*Tunde Olusunle, PhD, Fellow of the Association of Nigerian Authors, (FANA), teaches Creative Writing at the University of Abuja*

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Opinion

OF DEMOCRACY COMPASS, 2027 ELECTIONS GAMBIT, AND GHANA’S CHALLENGE

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BY BOLAJI AFOLABI

Concerned about the many uninspiring, and despairing postures, actions, comments, and positions of the political class to issues of nation building, cross-sectoral development, and national cohesion, the writer did a treatise which was published in the last few days of 2024. Conscious of encouraging political developments in a neighboring country, the piece; “Ghana, Raising The Bar of Democracy in Africa” was intended to challenge Nigerian politicians to change their approach to politics; and raise national issues beyond unnecessary politicking. Also, to attract some measures of citizens believability; ingeniously use politics as a veritable platform for national growth and development. As well as deploying politics as vehicle for the promotion of unity, peace, and tranquility amongst Nigerians irrespective of tribe, ethnicity, religion, and other categorization.

Given the flurry of reactions, comments, and requests by readers, at home and abroad, which by the way are humbling and inspiring , an encore to the earlier piece becomes inevitable. Moreso, a developing political matter between Leaders of some opposition parties has made this compelling.

As Nigerians were looking forward to welcoming the New Year; whilst bidding 2024 a timely exit with the numerous personal difficulties, tensions, and challenges people experienced, the political atmosphere was charged by one of the top politicians. Rabiu Musa Kwankwanso, presidential candidate of the New Nigeria People’s Party (NNPP) at the 2023 general elections made some daring allegations, and damning revelations. The Kano-born water engineer has traversed Nigeria’s politics, and public service occupying various juicy positions. At various times, he was Deputy Speaker, House of Representatives; Kano state Governor; Defence Minister; and Senator. Indeed, in his over three decades visibility in Nigeria’s political and governance landscape is among the few and privileged people to have both legislative and executive experiences.

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Typical of his nature and style, Kwankwanso had a no-holds barred interview with the Hausa Service of the British Broadcasting Service (BBC). Described as bold, frank, and fearless by his admirers, he was audacious, unapologetic, and fiery in his responses. In the engaging, thought provoking, and revealing interview, Kwankwanso said inter alia, “I was terrified about the information that I got that the PDP are meeting clerics and other leaders and in their last meeting, which involved about 45 clerics, that we reached an agreement that Atiku (Abubakar) will serve one term, and myself will also serve one term and Peter Obi will serve two terms. This is a lie, I never took part in any agreement. This is completely false; such an agreement never existed.”

Not done yet, Kwankwanso in his staccato shots declared that, “I was deeply angered about the information. Elderly people aged 70 to 80 years will sit and lie, telling clerics and other leaders something that never happened. With this (these) lies, we can’t believe such people that they can only serve one term in office if you entrust them with leadership.” The two-terms Kano state Governor revealed that, “such lies and deceit are precisely why we left. Myself, Peter Obi, Wike, and others all left.” Confident of his position, he alluded that, “Iam still alive and healthy, there is no way you can assemble over 40 people without me having 2 or 3 among them that will inform me of what transpired. This is not good for personality to lie. In such incident, if a government is formed on the basis of lies, it’s like starting a foundation on a week structure.”

Perhaps unknown to Kwankwanso, these allegations are not only weighty but has opened the pandora box about what transpired between personalities, groups, and associations in the opposition ranks before the 2023 presidential election. Perhaps, it could be deliberate, or unintended, there are some uncompleted comments, missing gaps that will provoke further enquiries. One is confident that, some day, in the nearest future, the true-story of what happened before, during, and after the last presidential election will be unearth. Nigerians would be curious to know what led to the loss of opposition parties in an election that people believed the uninspiring performance of Muhammadu Buhari should profit them. Scholars, students, policy makers, and analysts would want to know reasons behind the exits of Kwankwanso, and Obi from the umbrella party, which opened the flanks of opposition such that they were painfully and pitiably divided into three parties; PDP, LP, NNPP before the elections.

Sadly, the Kwankwanso’s diatribe, cobwebbed shape of leading opposition parties, and undisguised desperation for power by some politicians when juxtaposed with the realities on ground, paints terribly low image of Nigeria’s politics. The PDP is patently and sharply divided to almost irredeemable position. With litany of cases over its neck, it appears the party swims in perpetual crisis. The Labour Party (LP) is no better as it has its own share of issues which bothers on leadership. A party that have three individuals laying claim to National Chairman cannot be taken seriously. That Governor Alex Otti of Abia state allegedly ensured the victory of Zenith Labour Party (ZLP) at the Local Government elections speaks volumes about the LP. Even Kwankwanso’s NNPP is experiencing it’s share of political turmoil. The unfolding crisis is sweeping through the party’s national working committee; national executive council; and national assembly. Indeed, other smaller political parties in the opposition ranks are bedeviled with varied degree of factionalisation.

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Discerning Nigerians are saddened that few leaders in opposition parties are dissipating energies and resources towards gaining upper hand for the 2027 election, in a rudderless and unconscious manner. Apolitical minds conclude that the approach will further exacerbate crisis within the parties. Some analysts wonder why few leaders are eternally fixated on having their names feature on the ballot, that they have refused to see the imperative of resolution of crisis, consensus building, and realistic party growth as the critical issues of the moment. A school of thought argues that the resort to propaganda, misinformation, and falsehood by few leaders which is geared towards the hoodwink, blackmail, and submission of perceived political enemies, and opponents will boomerang. Another school of thought opines that since opposition parties have continually failed to elicit citizens confidence and believe, largely due to the craze, and penchant for “grab-it-all” and selfish, arrogant posturing of some leaders, the desire to win power remains a long ambition.

It is good to romanticize, and wish that the Ghana scenario happens in Nigeria. However, the focus, intent, and operations of politicking in Nigeria differs from what is obtained in Ghana. Pathetically, our political parties are only concerned about elections; participating and (likely) winning. Politicians pay little or no attention to party growth and development. Whereas in Ghana, politicians devote time, resources, and enablement into building, deepening, and nurturing political parties. Can the political class; especially opposition parties in Nigeria dedicatedly follow the template of Ghana’s leading opposition party, the National Democratic Congress (NDC)? Since it lost presidential and parliamentary elections to the National People’s Party (NPP) in 2016, the entire leadership, elders, and critical stakeholders in the party remained faithful. Unlike here where opposition lawmakers cross-carpet to the ruling party with the speed of light, such action is unheard of in Ghana. Rather than embark on ludicrous and irresponsible defections, Ghanaian politicians stay back, stay through, and resolutely determined in building opposition.

True, the 2027 general elections is not far away. Rather than engaging in theatrical positioning, and hysterical posturing in the quest for party-control, leaders of opposition should embark on sincere, and serious clean-up of selves, and by extension parties. They must relegate arrogance, personal ambitions, stubborn pursuit of power, and similar tendencies to the background. With the preponderance of socio-economic challenges in the country, the opposition parties must paper all the cracks, mend the bends, and resolve all issues towards playing it’s role effectively and efficiently. They must take enduring lessons from the NDC, who for years grew the party to the level at which Ghanaians chose it over and above the ruling NPP. They did not only mouth but worked assiduously for political power-change. However, it is instructive to note that in all these years, Ghanaian president-elect; John Mahama Dramani was the face of opposition in truth and deed.

* BOLAJI AFOLABI, a development communications specialist was with the Office of Public Affairs in The Presidency.

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Opinion

WHITHER BUHARI IN THE NIGER – ECOWAS – NIGERIA IMPASSE?

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By Tunde Olusunle

Nigeria’s northern geopolitical neighbour, Niger Republic, was effectively an annex of our country under the rulership of the immediate past President, Muhammadu Buhari. At every given opportunity, Buhari never failed to advertise the consanguineal connectivities between him as an individual, and Niger Republic, and indeed between his traditional sociocultural origins in Daura in Katsina State, and Maradi prefecture in Niger Republic. He confirmed he had cousins across the Nigerian border and even threatened to relocate to Niger if he suffered any discomfiture from Nigerians, as he disembarked from office in 2023. Buhari and his Nigerien counterpart who shares a slightly moderated first name with him, Mahamadou Issoufou, both signed an agreement in July 2018, for Nigeria to extend oil pipelines to Niger, and to build a refinery in that country, at the cost of $2Billion, fully bankrolled by Nigeria.

Under Buhari, a 286-kilometre long rail line to connect Nigeria and Niger, was approved by Buhari’s federal executive council, (FEC), in September 2020. The Kano- Katsina- Jibiya- Maradi rail link is costing Nigeria a staggering sum of $1.959 Billion. Buhari’s successor, Bola Tinubu inherited the project which was 35 per cent completed in 2023, and is proceeding with its completion. It should be ready before the end of 2026. The June 2021 edition of a publication which goes by the name *The Africa Report,* indeed asked a rhetorical question, occasioned by Buhari’s obsession with Niger, and Nigeria’s glaring economically lopsided investments in the desert nation. The document inquired: “What is it about Buhari’s passion for his northern neighbour, the Republic of Niger? Is it economic or commercial logic, altruism or just family and ethnic ties?” Buhari’s spokesman, Femi Adesina in a February 10, 2021 edition of *Arise News* proffered that: “Jibiya and Maradi constitute a significant trading core between Nigeria and Niger Republic dating back many centuries. This vital infrastructure will establish an end-to-end logistic in railway transport services before northern and southern sections of the country, reaching Nigeria’s southern ports of Lagos and Warri.”

Added to these prodigal investments in a virtual wasteland was Buhari’s procurement of sports utility vehicles, (SUVs) valued at *$2.7million* for senior government officials in the employ of Niger Republic, in August 2021. Buhari during his years as helmsman, practically developed Niger with Nigeria’s commonwealth at a time Nigerians were suffering, and are still groaning from the buffeting spinoffs of multisectoral lack, deprivation, hunger, insecurity and despair, precipitated by his leadership. Ochereome Nnana, respected columnist with Nigeria’s *Vanguard* newspaper, provided insights into Buhari’s consangiunity with Niger Republic in the November 25, 2020 edition of his column. His words: “Buhari is a first generation Nigerian whose father, Ardo Adamu Buhari, a dock seller, migrated from Niger and settled in Nigeria. He married Zulaihat, a Nigerian woman who bore Muhammadu Buhari for him.”

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Establishing this foundation is imperative for our investigation of the subsisting diplomatic fissions between Niger Republic and the Economic Community of West African States, ECOWAS), on one hand. There is also the estrangement of Niger, with Nigeria which President, Bola Tinubu, doubles as ECOWAS Chairman, in another breadth. Tinubu’s leadership of the regional grouping was renewed for a second term, at a meeting of leaders of member countries last December. The Niger Republic/ECOWAS/Nigeria stalemate which began in 2023, has stretched into a second year. Specifically on July 26, 2023, the commander of the presidential guard in Niger, Abdourahamane Tchiani, arrested and detained the incumbent democratically elected President, Mahamadou Bazoum. Tchiani proclaimed himself the new leader of a new military adventurers in that country. The coupists suspended the country’s Constitution and refused entreaties to reinstate the ousted President. Nigeria’s President, Tinubu was barely two months in office at the time, and had just assumed the leadership of ECOWAS, shortly before eruption of the Nigerien crisis. He threatened that Nigeria may consider leading an ECOWAS force to dislodge the mutineers if they didn’t restore Niger Republic’s Constitution and President Bazoum.

Tinubu despatched President Patrice Talon of Benin Republic to Niamey to mediate in the governance crisis in the brother West African country. A wholly Nigerian delegation led by Nigeria’s former military Head of State, Abdulsalami Abubakar, was also emplaced by Tinubu on the same impasse. This bouquet of diplomatic engagements, however, yielded no tangible results. Rather, Tchiani and his colleagues dug in. They were emboldened by precedents in Burkina Faso, Guinea and Mali, where the military establishment had upset the apple cart of popular governance in the west coast and formed new alliances with Russia, as counterpoint to their erstwhile colonisers, France. Alongside Burkina Faso and Mali, Niger has since exited ECOWAS and formed a three-nation mutual defence partnership which they christened the *Alliance of Sahel States, (ASS).*

If you ask me, the onset of the Nigerien crisis was a most appropriate opportunity to engage and test former President Muhammadu Buhari’s touted relationship with the northerly nation. If he was not specifically beckoned upon by Tinubu to avail his immediate successor his services, it would not have been out of place for Buhari to offer himself to help out with the Nigerien face-off. He shares the same sociocultural background with the Nigeriens across our borders. As President, Buhari clearly and needlessly over-romanced Niger Republic at the expense of our national till. He did so much for that country with funds borrowed in the name of Nigeria, which will be continously serviced for decades to come by successor generations. He should be confident of a red carpet if he was to mediate in the logjam. While Buhari played *Santa Claus* in Niger, the educational, healthcare, agricultural, defence, infrastructural sectors in Nigeria were grossly under-funded. We are talking about the blind investment of well over *$4 Billion* frittered in the sands of Sahara desert.

Say what you like about him, Olusegun Obasanjo the first democratically enthroned President of Nigeria’s fourth republic has continually acquitted himself as a preeminent leader and statesman, in and out of office. His stature looms large, his tentacles embedded in time and space. While on a visit to Nigeria July 16, 2003, former President Fradique de Menezes of *Sao Tome and Principe,* was deposed by the military back home. A flustered Obasanjo who wouldn’t brook such a putsch especially when the victim was his guest, held Menezes by the hands, took him in his aircraft and flew him back home to Sao Tome. The typically humorous Obasanjo reassured his guest as much as possible in the course of the trip, that he will be restored. Obasanjo jokingly said to his beleaguered Sao Tome counterpart: “If there is shooting within the perimeters of the airport at the point of the descent of my plane, my pilots will abort touchdown and head back to the skies,” as he tried to crack up his brooding guest. By July 23, 2003, one week after Menezes’s initial dislodgement, Obasanjo reinstated him to the delight of the international community.

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Mathieu Kerekou and Boni Yaya, both former Presidents of the Republic of Benin, Nigeria’s western neighbours, were regular guests of Nigeria during the Obasanjo years. They often never had to fly and just drove to meet their host in Badagry in Lagos State, or Otta in Ogun State. In response to cross-border robberies, smuggling and child-trafficking considered injurious to Nigeria’s peace and economy, Obasanjo never spared any chance to padlock the Nigeria-Benin borders. The attendant socioeconomic asphyxiation of these border seal-ups to Benin Republic, compelled regular entreaties by successive Beninoise governments to Nigeria. The sing-song was always for Nigeria to conceive of and treat the small French-speaking country as its *37th state.* Such was the worth of Nigeria in regional politics. Obasanjo continues to be called upon across the world, to add width to issues of democracy, politics, governance, peace and international affairs. That is an essential patriarch.

Former President Goodluck Jonathan has recently been on the road across West Africa as Special Envoy of ECOWAS. He has been leading mediation talks across the subregion, especially in Mali, one of the rebelling member countries of the body. Indeed, Jonathan is Chair of the “West African Elders Forum,” a senior advisory body committed to peace and stability in West Africa. In August 2022, Jonathan led the “Electoral Observation Mission” of the *Electoral Institute for Sustainable Democracy in Africa,* to monitor the presidential polls which produced William Ruto as president of Kenya. In January 2024, Jonathan headlined a group of multidisciplinary experts from across the Commonwealth to observe the elections in the Asian country of Pakistan. The brief of the body was to offer independent and comprehensive assessment of the electoral process in the country on that occasion.

Buhari’s deputy during his time as President, Yemi Osinbajo, SAN, was in July 2023, less than six weeks after he left office, appointed *Global Advisor to Global Energy Alliance for People and Planet, (GEAPP).* The body is an agglomeration of philanthropists, local entrepreneurs, governments and financing partners. Last August, Osinbajo and Peter Obi, presidential candidate of the Labour Party, (LP), at the 2023 presidential election, were guests of the 2024 “Democratic National Convention” in Chicago in the United States. The National Democratic Institute, (NDI), organisers of the convention is a nonprofit, non-partisan organisation pushing democratic values around the world. These are just aspects of concerns and engagements to which Osinbajo has been adding vistas since he departed *Aso Villa* in May 2023.

I’ve always wondered what worth, what value Buhari, one of Nigeria’s most privileged public officers of all time, has ever impacted to the broad gamut of governance and politics in Nigeria. At various times, Buhari was Military Governor; Federal Commissioner, (more contemporaneously Minister); Military Head of State and civilian President. Despite this string of enviable adornments, I’m yet to see Buhari present a paper at any conference; lead a cerebral discussion at any forum; or headline a symposium or conference on the national question. I’m yet to see his memoirs or autobiography where he shares perspectives on the special privileges Nigeria has availed him and how he has in turn been beneficial to the national cause. I’m tempted to conclude that Buhari unimaginatively, unforgivably frittered the collective calendars, the patrimony and emotions of Nigerians, especially during his eight year reign, better branded “Nigeria’s years of the locusts.” Buhari had little to offer and he offered nothing.

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*Tunde Olusunle, PhD, Fellow of the Association of Nigerian Authors, (FANA), teaches Creative Writing at the University of Abuja*

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