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What next for Iran after President Raisi’s death?

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Ebrahim Raisi stood close to the pinnacle of power in the Islamic Republic and was widely tipped to rise to its very top.

A dramatic turn dealt him a different hand.

His death in a helicopter crash on Sunday has upended the growing speculation over who will eventually replace the 85-year-old Supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, whose own health has long been the focus of intense interest.

The tragic fate of Iran’s hardline president is not expected to disrupt the direction of Iranian policy or jolt the Islamic Republic in any consequential way.

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But it will test a system where conservative hardliners now dominate all branches of power, both elected and unelected.

“The system will make a massive show of his death and stick to constitutional procedures to show functionality, while it seeks a new recruit who can maintain conservative unity and loyalty to Khamenei,” observes Dr Sanam Vakil, director of the Middle East and North Africa programme at the Chatham House think tank.

Raisi’s opponents will hail the exit of a former prosecutor accused of a decisive role in the mass execution of political prisoners in the 1980s which he denied; they will hope the end of his rule hastens the end of this regime.

For Iran’s ruling conservatives, the state funeral will be an occasion freighted with emotion; it will also be an opportunity to start sending their signals of continuity.

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They know the world is watching.

“For 40 some years, in Western narratives, Iran was supposed to collapse and fall apart,” Professor Mohammed Marandi of Tehran University told the BBC.

“But somehow, miraculously, it’s still here and I predict it will still be here in years to come.”

Another critical position which must be filled is the seat held by this middle-ranking cleric on the Assembly of Experts, the body empowered to choose the new supreme leader, when that far more consequential transition comes.

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“Raisi was a potential successor because, like Khamenei himself when he became supreme leader, he was relatively young, very loyal, an ideologue committed to the system who has name recognition,” says Dr Vakil of this opaque process of selection, where a number of names are seen to be in the running including the Supreme Leader’s son Mojtaba Khamenei.

Even before Raisi’s death was officially confirmed, the Ayatollah conveyed in a post on X that “the Iranian people should not worry, there will be no disruption in the country’s affairs.”

The more immediate political challenge will be staging early presidential elections.

Power has been transferred to Vice-President Mohammad Mokhber; new elections must be held within 50 days.

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This appeal to voters will come just months after March’s parliamentary elections revealed a record low turnout in a country which once prided itself on strong enthusiastic participation in this exercise.

Recent elections, including the contest in 2021 which brought Raisi to the presidency, were also marked by the systematic exclusion of moderate and pro-reform rivals by the oversight body.

“Early presidential elections could provide Khamenei and the upper echelons of the state with an opportunity to reverse that trajectory to give voters a way back into the political process,” says Mohammad Ali Shabani, editor of London-based news website Amwaj.media.

“But, unfortunately, so far we have seen no indications of the state being ready and willing to take such a step.”

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But, even within Raisi’s ranks, there appears to be no obvious successor.

“There are different camps within this conservative group, including individuals who are more hardline and others regarded as more pragmatic,” points out Hamidreza Azizi, a visiting fellow at SWP, the Berlin-based think tank.

He believes this will intensify the current jockeying for position within the new parliament and at local levels.

Whoever assumes Raisi’s mantle inherits a forbidding agenda and limited levers of power.

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Ultimate decision-making authority in the Islamic Republic lies with the Supreme Leader.

Foreign policy, especially in the region, is the preserve of the Islamic Revolution Guard Corps (IRGC) who wield growing power.

The president didn’t call the shots months ago when Iran confronted unprecedented tensions with its arch-enemy Israel over the devastating Israel Gaza war.

It triggered a dangerous tit-for-tat and set alarm bells ringing in many capitals, most of all Tehran, over the potential for an even riskier escalatory spiral.

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But as he presided over day-to-day business, Iranians struggled to cope with deepening financial hardship linked to crippling international sanctions as well as mismanagement and corruption.

Inflation soared to more than 40%; the rial currency plunged in value.

On his watch, the Islamic Republic was also shaken by an extraordinary wave of protests sparked by the death in custody in September 2022 of 22-year-old Mahsa Amini who was detained by morality police for allegedly violating Iran’s strict dress code.

Weeks before the unrest, Raisi had ordered a tightening of Iran’s “hijab and chastity law” which obligated women to behave and dress modestly including wearing a headscarf.

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Iran to ‘deal decisively’ with mounting protests
But the protests spearheaded by a young generation of women, lashing out against a raft of restrictions imposed on their lives, mainly focused their fury on the real sources of power, the Supreme Leader and the system itself.

Human rights groups say hundreds were killed in the crackdown and thousands detained.

“Having been elected with the lowest recorded turnout in presidential elections in Iranian history, Raisi did not have the popular mandate of his predecessor Rouhani,“ says Shabani in reference to the reformist leader Hassan Rouhani whose initial popularity was partly fuelled by the 2015 landmark nuclear deal which fell apart when President Trump unilaterally pulled the US out three years later.

Indirect talks between President Biden’s administration and Raisi’s team made little progress.

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“He avoided much of the ire which was directed at Rouhani by opponents of the Islamic Republic, partly because he was simply seen as less influential and effectual,” explains Shabani.

The helicopter crash also took the life of Iran’s Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian who played an active role in trying to present Tehran’s case to the world and find ways to ease the punishing impact of sanctions.

During the urgent diplomacy around the Israel-Gaza war, he was the voice on the phone and the face at meetings with Iran’s allies, as well as with Arab and Western foreign ministers anxious to calm and contain tensions.

“He was a useful channel to pass messages,” commented a senior Western diplomatic source. “But it tended to be quite formulaic since power did not lie in the foreign ministry.”

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“The sudden death of a president is normally a consequential event but, despite being seen as a potential Supreme Leader, he lacked political support and any clear political vision,” maintains analyst Esfandyar Batmanghelidj, CEO of the Bourse and Bazaar think tank. “But the political operators who got him elected will adjust and advance without him.”

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Foreign

UN Backs New World Map To Correct Africa’s Distorted Size

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The United Nations General Assembly has overwhelmingly backed a Togo-led resolution calling for a more accurate representation of the world’s continents, particularly Africa, on global maps.

The resolution, “Correct the Map: Rebalancing Global Cartographic Representation and Promoting Equitable Representation of the World’s Regions, Particularly Africa,” was adopted on Friday, September 4, with 164 countries voting in favour, six abstaining and only the United States voting against.

The initiative promotes the gradual adoption of the Equal Earth projection, which represents the relative areas of continents more accurately than the centuries-old Mercator projection. The Mercator map, developed in 1569 primarily for navigation, significantly enlarges landmasses closer to the poles while making equatorial regions such as Africa appear disproportionately smaller.

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Togo, which spearheaded the initiative with African Union backing, argued that maps are not merely geographical tools but also shape how societies perceive the world and their place in it.

The resolution is not legally binding and does not ban the Mercator projection, which remains useful for maritime navigation. Instead, it encourages governments, educational institutions and other users to consider more geographically accurate alternatives.

The vote also exposed differing political interpretations of the initiative. The United States was the sole country to oppose the resolution, arguing that the United Nations should concentrate on more pressing global challenges rather than what Washington characterised as an ideological agenda.

The measure nonetheless represents a significant diplomatic victory for African countries seeking to challenge longstanding distortions in the way the continent is visually represented on commonly used world maps.

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Africa has not changed its size. The map is finally being asked to show it.

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UK updates list of employers allowed to sponsor Nigerian, other foreign workers

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The UK Government has updated its official list of employers licensed to sponsor foreign workers, providing jobseekers with a current resource for identifying organisations that may be able to sponsor eligible workers.

The Register of Licensed Sponsors: Workers, published on GOV.UK, contains organisations authorised to sponsor workers under the UK’s Worker and Temporary Worker immigration routes.

The latest version of the register was updated on September 4, 2026, according to the UK Government.

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The register can be useful for people outside the UK who are searching for jobs that could potentially lead to visa sponsorship, allowing them to research licensed employers before applying for vacancies.

Rather than applying to employers at random, jobseekers can use the register to identify organisations that hold a valid sponsor licence and then check whether they have suitable vacancies.

The list can help applicants to:

* Identify potential sponsoring employers

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Research organisations before submitting applications

* Monitor companies for suitable job openings

* Make their UK job search more targeted

* Confirm whether an organisation is included on the official sponsor register

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However, being included on the register does not mean that every job advertised by an organisation comes with visa sponsorship.

A sponsor licence means an employer is authorised to sponsor eligible workers, but whether sponsorship is offered for a particular vacancy depends on factors including the job, the applicant’s eligibility and the employer’s decision.

Jobseekers should therefore treat the register as a starting point for research rather than confirmation that sponsorship is available.

After finding an employer on the list, applicants should carefully review the specific vacancy and check the job title, responsibilities, required qualifications and experience, salary, location and eligibility conditions.

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They should also look for any information provided by the employer about visa sponsorship and determine whether the position is eligible under the relevant immigration route.

The UK Government’s sponsor register is updated periodically, meaning people actively looking for sponsored employment should check the latest version rather than relying on older copies.

The official Register of Licensed Sponsors: Workers is available on the UK Government’s website.

For jobseekers hoping to work in the UK, using the sponsor register can make the search more focused. However, applicants should always check the individual vacancy and the latest immigration requirements before applying, as being listed as a licensed sponsor does not guarantee sponsorship for a particular job.

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Nigerians react as UK permits foreign workers to change employers

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Nigerians and other foreign workers in the UK have welcomed a new immigration policy allowing recognised victims of modern slavery on Skilled Worker visas to leave exploitative employers and take up new jobs without putting their immigration status at risk.

The UK Home Office announced the change on Thursday, saying workers who have been formally recognised as victims of modern slavery should not be forced to remain with abusive employers because of their immigration status.

“No victim of modern slavery should be trapped with an exploitative employer because of their immigration status,” the Home Office said in a post on its official X account.

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It added that recognised victims on Skilled Worker visas would now be able to leave abusive employers and work elsewhere without risking their immigration status.

The development has attracted positive reactions online, particularly from Nigerians who work in or are familiar with the UK’s care and support sector.

An X user, @daddyhope, described the announcement as “good news for care workers”, saying the policy could remove the fear of deportation allegedly used by some exploitative employers to control sponsored workers.

“From today, care workers and other Skilled Worker visa holders who are formally recognised as victims of modern slavery will be allowed to leave abusive employers and work elsewhere without risking their immigration status,” the user wrote.

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Another user, @JajaPhD, welcomed the policy but sought clarification on who qualifies as a recognised victim.

“Sounds like progress. What’s a recognised victim though?” the user asked, pointing to concerns among some care and support workers who may feel trapped in exploitative workplaces because they fear losing their sponsorship and livelihoods if they report abuse.

Similarly, @MzHorlabc11 described the development as “a step in the right direction”, while calling for more clarity on how the new arrangement would operate in practice.

Other users expressed stronger support for the move.

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@Unfilteredxrp8 described the announcement as “fantastic news”, saying it would provide relief to many skilled workers living in the UK.

@Prestigious_Gt also welcomed the development, suggesting that the change could encourage employers to improve their treatment of sponsored workers.

“Some employers deserve this news. They will be calmer and more respectful moving forward,” the user wrote.

Another X user, @RealMrKay, expressed optimism that the policy would encourage employers to treat sponsored workers more fairly.

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The user said they knew people who were unhappy with their sponsors over what they considered unfair treatment compared with workers who did not require sponsorship.

The UK Government’s move provides an important safeguard for people who have been formally recognised as victims of modern slavery and whose immigration status is linked to their employment.

However, reactions online also highlighted the need for greater public understanding of the process through which a worker becomes formally recognised as a victim of modern slavery.

The change is particularly relevant to care workers and other sponsored employees, who have previously faced restrictions linked to their employer-sponsored immigration status when attempting to leave abusive or exploitative workplaces.

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