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…revenues set at N34.33trn, capital spend hits N26.08trn

…as President promises tougher discipline, security overhaul and job-rich growth

By Gloria Ikibah

President Bola Ahmed Tinubu on Friday laid before a joint sitting of the National Assembly a N58.18 trillion 2026 Appropriation Bill, pitching it as a turning point from painful reforms to improved living standards, while unveiling a sweeping new security doctrine that classifies all armed groups operating outside state authority as terrorists.

Presenting what he titled the “Budget of Consolidation, Renewed Resilience and Shared Prosperity”, the President said the proposal was designed to lock in macroeconomic stability, deepen competitiveness and ensure growth delivers “decent jobs, rising incomes, and a better quality of life across our Federation”.

He acknowledged the strain that reforms had placed on households and businesses.

Tinubu said: “This is a defining moment in our national journey of reform and transformation. Over the last two and a half years, we made a deliberate choice: to confront long‑standing structural weaknesses, stabilise our economy, rebuild confidence, and lay a durable foundation for a more resilient, inclusive, and dynamic Nigeria.

“These reforms were necessary — and they have not been painless. Families and businesses have faced pressure; established systems have been disrupted; and budget execution has been tested. I acknowledge these difficulties plainly, and I assure Nigerians that their sacrifices are not in vain. The path of reform is seldom smooth, but it is the surest route to lasting stability and shared prosperity”.

President Tinubu anchored the budget on what he described as early signs of stabilisation. He cited 3.98 per cent GDP growth in the third quarter of 2025, eight consecutive months of easing inflation, down to 14.45 per cent in November from 24.23 per cent in March, rising oil output, stronger non-oil revenues and foreign reserves at a seven-year high of about $47 billion.

“With stabilising food and energy prices, tighter monetary conditions, and improving supply responses, we expect the disinflationary trend to persist—so that inflation continues to decline further over the 2026 horizon, barring major supply shocks.

“Oil production has improved, supported by enhanced security, technology deployment, and sector reforms.

“Non‑oil revenues have expanded significantly through better tax administration —not excessive taxation.

“Investor confidence is returning, reflected in capital inflows, renewed project financing, and stronger private‑sector participation.

“Our external reserves rose to a 7‑year high of about US$47 billion as at 14 November 2025, providing more than 10 months of import cover and a stronger buffer against shocks.

“These outcomes are not accidental. They reflect difficult but deliberate policy choices. Our task now is to consolidate these gains—so that stability becomes prosperity, and prosperity becomes shared prosperity,” he said.

Reviewing 2025 budget performance, the President admitted execution pressures during the transition, with N18.6 trillion in revenue (61 per cent of target) and N24.66 trillion in spending (60 per cent) by the third quarter. Capital releases lagged as government prioritised completion of 2024 projects.

“Let me be clear: 2026 will be a year of stronger discipline in budget execution. I have issued directives to the Honourable Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, the Honourable Minister of Budget and Economic Planning, the Accountant‑General of the Federation, and the Director‑General of the Budget Office of the Federation to ensure that the 2026 Budget is implemented strictly in line with the appropriated details and timelines.

“We expect improved revenue performance through the new National Tax Acts and the ongoing reforms in the oil and gas sector—reforms designed not merely to raise revenue, but to drive transparency, efficiency, fairness, and long‑term value in our fiscal architecture.

“I will also be unequivocal about Government‑Owned Enterprises. Heads of all GOEs are hereby directed to meet their assigned revenue targets. To support this, we will deploy end‑to‑end digitisation of revenue mobilisation—standardised e‑collections, interoperable payment rails, automated reconciliation, data‑driven risk profiling, and real‑time performance dashboards—so leakages are sealed, compliance is verifiable, and remittances are prompt.

“These targets will form core components of performance evaluations and institutional scorecards. Nigeria can no longer afford leakages, inefficiencies, or underperformance in strategic agencies. Every institution must play its part”, he warned.

Under the proposal, expected revenue stands at N34.33 trillion against projected expenditure of N58.18 trillion, including N15.52 trillion for debt service.

Capital spending rises to N26.08 trillion, while the deficit of N23.85 trillion represents 4.28 per cent of GDP. The framework assumes oil at $64.85 a barrel, output of 1.84 million barrels a day and an exchange rate of N1,400 to the dollar.

“These numbers are not just accounting lines. They are a statement of national priorities. We remain firmly committed to fiscal sustainability, debt transparency, and value‑for‑money spending”, he noted.

The budget allocates N5.41 trillion to defence and security, alongside N3.56 trillion for infrastructure, N3.52 trillion for education and N2.48 trillion for health. But it was Tinubu’s security declaration that drew the sharpest lines.

He announced a new national counterterrorism doctrine anchored on unified command and intelligence, listing bandits, militias, armed gangs, kidnappers and their financiers, facilitators and protectors, including political and community leaders, as falling under the designation.

“Security remains the foundation of development. The 2026 Budget strengthens support for: modernisation of the Armed Forces; intelligence‑driven policing and joint operations; border security and technology‑enabled surveillance; and community‑based peacebuilding and conflict prevention.

“We will invest in security with clear accountability for outcomes—because security spending must deliver security results. To secure our country, our priority will remain on increasing the fighting capability of our armed forces and other security agencies by boosting personnel and procuring cutting-edge platforms and other hardware.

“We are also pursuing a new era of criminal justice system to stamp out terrorism, banditry, kidnapping for ransom and other violent crimes. Our administration is resetting the national security architecture and establishing a new national counterterrorism doctrine—a holistic redesign anchored on unified command, intelligence, community stability, and counter-insurgency.

“This new doctrine will fundamentally change how we confront terrorism and other violent crimes that have become existential threats to our corporate survival and have heightened anxiety among our people.

“To secure our country, our priority will remain on increasing the fighting capability of our armed forces and other security agencies.

“Henceforth, and under this new architecture, any armed group or gun-wielding non-state actors operating outside state authority will be regarded as terrorists,” the President declared.

On human capital, Tinubu said education and health spending would be strengthened, highlighting support for over 418,000 students through the Nigerian Education Loan Fund and noting that healthcare investment accounts for six per cent of the budget net of liabilities. He also announced more than $500 million in anticipated US grant funding for targeted health interventions.

Agriculture and food security feature prominently, with funding for mechanisation, irrigation, storage and agro-value chains.

“Food security is national security,” he said, arguing the measures would cut post-harvest losses and raise smallholder incomes.

“The greatest budget is not the one we announce. It is the one we deliver,” Tinubu concluded, setting out commitments to better revenue mobilisation, sharper spending priorities and tougher accountability.

Laying the bill before lawmakers, he appealed for unity between the Executive and Legislature.

“I commend the understanding, sacrifice, and resilience of our people. My administration remains committed to easing the burdens of transition and ensuring that the benefits of reform reach households and communities across the Federation.

“With unity of purpose between the Executive and the Legislature—and with the resilience of the Nigerian people—we will deliver the full promise of the Renewed Hope Agenda.,” he said.

As debate begins, the essence of the 2026 budget is clear: consolidate hard-won stability, spend big on capital and security, enforce discipline across government, and convert recovery into gains Nigerians can feel. Whether that promise is realised will depend not on rhetoric, but on execution.