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Nigeria’s revenue outlook for 2026 is set on a strong growth path as the Nigeria Revenue Service (NRS) has projected a total revenue target of ₦40.7 trillion for the year. This would be built on what it described as “sustained progress recorded over the past five years.”

Meeting the ₦40.7 trillion target in 2026 would mean that the Service would outperform the Federal Government’s budgeted revenue estimate of ₦34.3 trillion for the year.

The projection was disclosed on Tuesday in Abuja by the Executive Director, Government and Large Taxpayers at the NRS, Mrs. Amina Ado Kurawa, during the 2026 NRS Leadership Retreat. She said revenue performance between 2021 and 2025 had improved significantly, with collections rising by more than four times within the period.

She explained that while year-on-year growth is expected to remain positive, success will depend largely on stronger enforcement, broader compliance, and improved operational efficiency under the new NRS framework.

Mrs. Kurawa said oil revenue is expected to grow modestly by about 1.4 per cent in 2026, noting that this reflects stable oil production levels but lower benchmark prices. She added that the projected increase would come mainly from Company Income Tax related to oil operations, as well as Petroleum Profits Tax and Hydrocarbon Tax.

She explained that non-oil revenue would remain the main driver of growth, with collections projected to rise by 37.9 per cent to ₦24.836 trillion in 2026, compared to the ₦21.5 trillion recorded in 2025. Kurawa also disclosed that royalty revenue has now been fully integrated into the national revenue framework for the first time, following the expanded mandate of the Nigeria Revenue Service, creating an additional stream of income for the government.

Within the non-oil segment, she said Company Income Tax, Value Added Tax, and the Development Levy are expected to account for the largest share of revenue growth in 2026.

“To achieve the 2026 target, the Service will continue to engage stakeholders on new tax laws, automate Petroleum Profits Tax, Hydrocarbon Tax, and royalty assessments and payments, issue clear regulations to support compliance, and improve audit quality while reducing audit timelines,” she said.

She added that the Service would also strengthen collaboration with state governments and federal ministries, departments, and agencies to improve VAT and withholding tax remittances. According to her, the NRS is also expanding its use of data analytics through e-invoicing, government contract data, and other digital sources to close revenue gaps.

Mrs. Kurawa also presented the performance of the Service in 2025, describing it as one of the strongest in recent years. She said total revenue collection rose by 30.4 per cent to ₦28.3 trillion in 2025, compared to ₦21.7 trillion in 2024, exceeding the annual target of ₦25.2 trillion by 12 per cent.

“Actual collections in 2025 amounted to 112 per cent of the annual target, reflecting improved efficiency and stronger compliance across revenue streams,” she said.

She explained that quarterly results showed particularly strong performance in the middle of the year, with the Service achieving 129.7 per cent of its second-quarter target and 131.9 per cent in the third quarter, although the first and fourth quarters came in slightly below expectations.

Oil tax revenue in 2025 stood at ₦6.8 trillion, representing 95 per cent of the annual oil revenue target, with average monthly collections of about ₦600 billion. Non-oil taxes performed even better, with collections reaching ₦21.4 trillion, equivalent to 119 per cent of the annual target and an average monthly inflow of about ₦1.5 trillion.

Year-on-year figures showed oil tax revenue grew by 19 per cent from ₦5.8 trillion in 2024 to ₦6.8 trillion in 2025, while non-oil tax revenue jumped by 35 per cent from ₦15.9 trillion to ₦21.5 trillion. Company Income Tax, Value Added Tax, and Petroleum Profits Tax or Hydrocarbon Tax recorded the strongest results, while Capital Gains Tax saw exceptional growth due mainly to divestments in the oil and gas sector.

She noted that revenue performance in 2025 was higher than in 2024 in every month except October, which fell short by about five per cent. Filing compliance also improved steadily between 2022 and 2025 across major tax types, including Company Income Tax, VAT, withholding tax, stamp duties, and electronic money transfer levy.

According to her, the strong 2025 outcome was driven by stricter enforcement of penalties, removal of routine filing extensions, organisational restructuring carried out in early 2024, better staff welfare, expansion of the withholding tax system, automation efforts, and reforms in tax policy and legislation.

Speaking at the retreat, the Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Mr. Wale Edun, placed Nigeria’s revenue drive within a broader global context, pointing to what he described as a harsh financial reality facing developing countries.

Using 2024 figures, the Minister said developing and emerging economies paid about $163 billion in debt service to external creditors during the year, while receiving only $42 billion in Overseas Development Assistance (ODA) and about $97 billion in Foreign Direct Investment (FDI).

“When you add ODA and FDI together, total inflows came to $139 billion, which is still lower than the $163 billion paid out in debt service,” he said. “This means developing countries sent more money out than they received, leading to a net outflow of resources.”

He explained that this situation shows that developing countries are now giving more money to the global system than they are receiving, reversing the traditional flow of financial support. According to him, this makes reliance on external financing unsustainable.

“Internal fiscal effort and domestic revenue mobilisation must now be the main anchor of fiscal sustainability,” the Minister said, adding that countries must increasingly rely on their own revenue and savings to fund investment and development.

He said this reality makes the role of the Nigeria Revenue Service central to Nigeria’s economic strategy at this time.

The Executive Chairman of the NRS, Dr. Zacch Adedeji, in his address, urged leaders of the Service to abandon comfort, routine, and old habits, and rise to the demands of the present moment. He said the NRS represents a clear departure from the past and marks the beginning of a new institutional era that requires new ways of thinking and leading.

“Past achievements and positions will not be enough to secure the future of this institution,” he said. “What will matter is adaptability, growth, and a higher standard of leadership.”

Dr. Adedeji said leadership failures often stem not from lack of intelligence or strategy, but from hidden beliefs that shape decisions and behaviour. He warned that even strong reforms can fail if leaders do not confront internal barriers that quietly influence how they lead.

He noted that such barriers often appear as good intentions, such as believing leaders must always have the answers, confusing tight control with accountability, or expecting everyone to work in the same way and at the same pace. He added that fear-driven leadership environments discourage learning, questioning, and innovation.

The NRS Chairman said the first priority of the retreat was leadership self-examination, not strategy or technology. He admitted that he personally struggled with expecting others to perform tasks exactly the way he would, which affected delegation and created unnecessary pressure.

“My breakthrough was realising that efficiency does not require uniformity, and excellence does not require my personal style,” he said. “Leadership is about elevating others, not reproducing yourself.”

He urged leaders to set aside titles and inherited leadership scripts during the retreat, saying the future of the NRS would depend more on humility, courage, and clarity than on policy documents.

Also speaking at the retreat, the Chairman of the National Tax Policy Implementation Committee (NTPIC), Mr. Joseph Tegbe, said Nigeria has moved from the phase of making tax laws to the phase of delivering results. He said the passage of four major tax laws has corrected past weaknesses, and attention must now turn fully to execution.

According to him, Nigeria’s low tax-to-GDP ratio remains a major structural weakness that exposes the country to oil price shocks, making stable domestic revenue an economic necessity rather than a choice.

Mr. Tegbe described the NRS as a “revenue system integrator” rather than a stand-alone agency, with responsibility for expanding the tax base while protecting vulnerable citizens, using data and technology intelligently, maintaining high ethical standards, and building a strong, professional workforce.

He added that success should not be measured by revenue figures alone, but by higher voluntary compliance, lower cost of collection, fewer disputes, and increased public trust in the fairness of the tax system