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Nigeria’s aviation industry is staring at a possible collapse within days as airline operators warn that flight operations may grind to a halt nationwide if the federal government fails to urgently intervene in the escalating aviation fuel crisis.

Operators under the Airline Operators of Nigeria (AON) say the cost of Jet A1 has reached “unsustainable” levels, with prices reportedly surging by as much as 250 percent in Nigeria, far above global increases estimated at about 70 percent.

Industry players say the distortion is pushing airlines to the brink, with operating costs now heavily dollarised while access to credit remains trapped in a high-interest environment reportedly ranging between 30 and 35 percent.

Air Peace Chairman Allen Onyema warned after a tense industry meeting that carriers may have no choice but to suspend operations if nothing changes within seven days.

“We are being pushed to the wall. At these levels, no airline can continue to operate sustainably,” Onyema said, adding that carriers may be forced to ground operations if no solution emerges within days.

Onyema said Nigerian airlines are under severe pressure due to a sharp rise in aviation fuel prices, which he argued is disproportionately higher than global trends following the U.S.–Iran conflict.

He explained that while aviation fuel prices typically move in line with crude oil increases, Nigeria has recorded a surge of about 250 to 270 percent, compared to roughly 70 percent in other countries, including elsewhere in Africa.

Onyema said the situation is making airline operations unsustainable and has pushed operators to the brink, prompting urgent discussions between government officials, airline operators, and fuel marketers to find a resolution.

“We have deliberated extensively today, and they have also shared their pain points. We have also shared ours. We are going to go back and wait for the outcome of their deliberations with the regulators,” he said.

“When they do that, we expect that within the next 48 hours, something drastic will be done, because no airline in this country will be able to fly within the next seven days if nothing is done.

“Not because airlines do not want to fly, but because the pricing, not only of our tickets but also of the fuel products we need to operate, may become unsustainable.

“We are already operating under heavy financial pressure, borrowing at 30 to 35 percent interest just to stay afloat, and we cannot continue to spend all our revenue on fuel alone.”

“The good news, as we observed yesterday, is that the President is listening, and this is very encouraging for us. We are hopeful. The country should also be hopeful, because the President, even while we were there, made a call to the honourable minister,” he added.

The warning comes amid a worsening standoff between airlines, petroleum marketers, and regulators over pricing mechanisms for aviation fuel, which operators insist has become artificially inflated through inefficiencies and market manipulation.

A crucial meeting convened by the Minister of Aviation and Aerospace Development, Festus Keyamo (SAN), ended in deadlock, with no agreement reached on how to immediately crash or stabilise Jet A1 prices.

Keyamo admitted after the closed-door session that the crisis was threatening the survival of domestic airlines, adding that discussions would continue for 48 to 72 hours in search of a compromise.

He also acknowledged that airlines may be forced to increase ticket prices further if the situation persists, a development that could push air travel beyond the reach of ordinary Nigerians already battling inflation and a weakened currency.

Despite the stalemate, the minister said the meeting was held with presidential backing, noting that President Bola Tinubu had been briefed and was monitoring developments closely.

Operators, however, remain unconvinced, insisting that repeated assurances without concrete price relief will not prevent what they describe as an imminent aviation shutdown.

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The Nigerian Naira displayed a slight softening against the US Dollar in the early trading hours of Thursday, April 23, 2026, across both the official and parallel foreign exchange markets. Financial analysts are keeping a close eye on the market as mid-week demand for the greenback continues to influence rate stability.

In the Nigerian Foreign Exchange Market (NFEM), the Naira opened the trading day with a modest depreciation.

According to real-time data from the FMDQ Securities Exchange, the Naira is currently trading at an average of 1,351.59 NGN per 1 USD. This represents a marginal decline compared to the opening rates observed earlier in the week, where the currency had seen support near the 1,347 NGN level.

Market turnover at the official window remains a key point of focus for investors, as the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) maintains its policy of managed float to curb excessive volatility while ensuring essential sectors have access to foreign currency.

Parallel Market Trends

The informal or parallel market continues to trade at a significant premium compared to the official rate. Early morning reports from Bureau De Change (BDC) operators in major hubs such as Lagos (Ikeja and Broad Street), Abuja (Wuse Zone 4), and Kano suggest that the Dollar is being exchanged at rates ranging between 1,465 NGN and 1,480 NGN.

The spread between the NFEM and the parallel market currently sits at approximately 113 Naira, a gap that experts attribute to the unmet demand from small-scale importers and individuals seeking personal travel allowances (PTA) who often find the official channels more stringent.

Economic Factors and Outlook

The current pressure on the Naira is largely attributed to sustained demand for the Dollar to fund international trade obligations and service foreign debt. Additionally, the recent fluctuations in global oil prices—Nigeria’s primary source of foreign exchange—continue to dictate the strength of the nation’s external reserves.

As the trading session progresses into the afternoon, participants expect the rate to stabilize, though any significant intervention from the apex bank or shifts in market liquidity could alter the closing figures for the day. Market watchers are advised to monitor official closing reports for a comprehensive view of the day’s performance.

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The Federation Account Allocation Committee (FAAC), has shared N2.036 trillion among the Federal Government, states and the Local Government Councils (LGCs).

The revenue was shared at the April meeting of FAAC in Abuja.

The N2.036 trillion total distributable revenue comprised statutory revenue of N1.320 trillion, Value Added Tax (VAT) revenue of N515.391 billion and Agumentation of N200 billion.

A communiqué issued by FAAC indicated that total gross revenue of N2.364 trillion was available in the month of March.

It said that total deduction for cost of collection was N81.084 billion, while total transfers, refunds and savings was N246.872 billion and Agumentation of N200 billion.

The communiqué said gross statutory revenue of N1.699 trillion was received for the month of March 2026.

This is higher than the sum of N1.561 trillion received in the preceding month by N137.914 billion.

“Gross revenue of N664.425 billion was available from VAT in March 2026.

“This was lower than the N668.450 billion available in the month of February 2026 by N4.025 billion,” it said.

The communiqué said from the N2.036 trillion total distributable revenue, the Federal Government received total sum of N789.159 billion and the state governments received total sum of N657.596 billion.

It said that the LGs received N468.826 billion, while the sum of N120.759 billion (13 per cent of mineral revenue) was shared to the benefiting State as derivation revenue.

“On the N1.320 trillion distributable statutory revenue, the Federal Government received N632.260 billion and the state governments received N320.691 billion.

“The LGs received N247.239 billion and the sum of N120.759 billion (13 per cent of mineral revenue) was shared to the benefiting States as derivation revenue,” it said.

It said that from the N515.391 billion distributable VAT revenue, the Federal Government received N51.539 billion, the state governments received N283.465 billion and the LGs received N180.387 billion.

It said that from the N200 billion Augmentation, the Federal Government received N105.360 big government received N53.440 billion, and the LGs received N41.200 billion.

It said that in March, Companies income Tax (CIT), CGT, SDT and Excise Duty increased significantly.

It said that Petroleum Profit Tax (PPT), Hydrocarbon Tax (HT), Oil and Gas Royalty, Import Duty and CET decreased considerably, while VAT decreased marginally.

(NAN)