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By Professor Echefuna’ R G ONYEBEADI

The die is cast! By September 21, 2024 (roughly twenty four hours from now), Edo people shall vote for who will be the next governor of their State.
The stake seems to be very high. It’s most likely to be a “roforofo” show between the “haves” and the “have nots”. Between wits and brawns; and between “godsons” and the “godfatherless”.
The election is poised to be a straight fight between three categories of people viz (not in a particular order):
1. The Elites
2. The Idealists
3. The Vulnerables (terminology loosely used).

The forthcoming election is for three political parties namely: APC, LP and PDP (in alphabetical order), to win or lose.

PDP represents the Elites group. Labour Party (LP) represents the Idealists group while the APC represents the Vulnerables group in the forthcoming election.

Whereas APC has the “Federal Might” (don’t ask me what that means), APC as a political, a former Governor and a humongous flow of money that is flowing from doubtful sources; PDP has the “power of incumbency” (please, don’t ask me what that means), a sitting governor and some unhindered flow of the State’s money, but without the global support of PDP as a political party.
The LP does not have those skewed “advantages” of both the APC and the PDP, but they have the full backing of the “Obidients” with a divided LP as a political party.

Ordinarily, going by “Nigerian factor” (again, please, don’t ask me what that means) on election matters among others, the election would have been for the APC to lose. But, it may not be so this time by a combination of factors.

PDP may have just had an easy win as the political party in power in the State, but again, that may not be so by a combination of factors.

The LP may have just lost the election outrightly in the fight for power between the trio of APC, PDP and LP, but again, that may not be so due to a combination of factors.

So, who then does the odds favour to win the forthcoming governorship election in Edo State? Wait for it!

By simple logic and by the unwritten principles of zoning and rotation, the governorship election is ordinarily for the Edo Central zone to pick, more so, considering the fact that, in this new political dispensation from 1999 to date, Edo South has produced governors twice spanning 16 years out of 25 years. Edo North has produced a governor for 8 years while Edo Central had produced a governor by default for just about one year, off record.

If the general perception of the incumbent Governor’s ‘poor’ performance connotes reality, then, it will be a very herculean task for the current PDP “controlled” State government to win the forthcoming governorship election in Edo State.

This apart, the latent “Omonoba” factor is a very big abartross that will be very difficult if not impossible for the current PDP led government of the State to overcome.

Going by the unprecedented, multifaceted and highly excruciating pains inflicted on Nigerians by the APC led Federal Government, it may be very difficult to convince the Edo people at this time, that their lots will be better served with a replication of an APC governor in the State.

Besides, the APC governorship candidate cuts across as a person bereft of original ideas, pedestrian and lacks self confidence/self esteem.

So, what would have ordinarily been an edge of having the so-called “Federal Might” and a favoured geopolitical zone, may backfire to cause a fatal political damage to the APC and its candidate.

The APC’s zonal factor sentiments of “tiwa ni tiwa” (our own is our own) and/or “it is our turn” ( awa lo kan) with an inappropriate candidate may really be offensive to the sensibilities and sensitivity of a people who had produced political juggernauts in the past in the persons of Chief Anthony Enahoro, Professor Ambrose Alli and Chief Tony Anenih, just to mention a few.

APC seems to have an inappropriate candidate for a zone that is ordinarily favoured to produce the next governor.

Another fear to contend with is that of an overbearing APC god father which may not synchronize well with the psyche of many Edo people at this time.

Therefore, what may have become a disadvantage to APC’s candidate would have naturally become a clear advantage for the PDP candidate, considering that Edo Central is the favoured zone to produce the next governor. But, it may not turn out to be so.

The PDP candidate is elitist, highly educated, but seems imposed on the people and even supposedly alien to his own people.

The PDP candidate seems to have the right credentials and/or pedigree, coming from a private sector but, his involvement in the current PDP led supposedly “failed” government and close association with a perceived “failed” incumbent Governor of the State is a big abbartross for the PDP candidate.

It may also be difficult for Edo people at this time to accept a political neophyte they hardly knew who is seemingly being put forward by a perceived “non performing” PDP godfather Governor!

It may be instructive at this juncture to note that, the so called rotation/zoning of elective political offices is not by any known law.

There hasn’t been any time that elective positions and particularly, that of governorship elections in Edo State have been exclusively restricted to and/or reserved solely, wholly and entirely for any particular zone without the active participation of the other zones.

Otherwise, an Obaseki wouldn’t have been put forward and became governor for 8 years after an Igbinedion had previously governed for eight (8 ) years, when they are both from the same geopolitical zone of Edo South, without other zones taking their turns prior to.

There has never been any time all the zones didn’t present candidates for elections for governorship in the past.

Therefore, the present sentiments for the Edo Central zone to produce the next governor is neither a right nor any agreement by the stakeholders and citizens of Edo State. It can only be hinged on pleas, persuasions, negotiations, building bridges across the geopolitical divides and on moral ground. The clamour for zoning is not enforceable by any law.

Though the yearnings for zoning the governorship this time to Edo Central is justifiable based on the doctrines of equity, fairness and justice. It is also imperative to note that, one of the maxims of equity states that: he who must come to equity must do so with clean hands!

Then, the pertinent question that needs an answer is: how clean are the hands of Edo Central stakeholders in producing inappropriate candidates that seem to be incurably deficient in the art and science of modern governance and/or unable to effectively communicate, with the added curiosity of being led and spoken for in their own campaigns by controversial people with lots of questionable baggage?

Flowing from the aforementioned therefore, it is my considered opinion that, the cloak of zoning elective positions, good as it may, is not a stand alone prerogative and can not rightly overshadow the overall interest and wellbeing of the citizens of the State.

While plying the route of zoning sentiments, it is only proper that competence, credibility, accountability, transparency and acceptability should not be sacrificed on the altars of incurable defective baggage and zoning.

Now, let’s consider some basic statistics.
According to the data from INEC, a total of 2,210,534 people registered to vote in the Edo Governorship election of Saturday, September 21, 2024.
Out of this number, only 1,726,738 people have collected their permanent voter cards (PVCs) while 483,796 PVCs are yet to be collected.

The breakdown of eligible voters for each of the Edo state’s three geopolitical zones and the 18 Local Government Areas in alphabetical order are as follows:

*Edo Central (LGAs)*:
1. Esan Central – 57,100
2. Esan North East – 80,245
3. Esan South East – 76,842
4. Esan West – 99,983
5. Igueben – 46, 828
*Total = 364,998 or 16.51%*

*Edo North (LGAs)*:
1. Akoko Edo – 119,254
2. Etsako Central – 50,058
3. Etsako East – 81, 639
4. Etsako West – 160,137
5. Owan East – 91,841
6. Owan West – 61, 193
*Total = 564, 122 or 25.52%*

*Edo South (LGAs)*:
1. Egor – 219,832
2. Ikpoba Okha – 315,410
3. Oredo – 313,553
4. Orhinmwon – 118,672
5. Ovia North East – 143,009
6. Ovia South West – 96,409
7. Uhunmwode – 74,529
*Total = 1,281,414 or 57.97%*

From the foregoing, it could be observed that *Edo Central has the least number of Local Government Areas (LGAs) with the least number of eligible voters, which is only 16.51% of the total number of eligible voters in Edo State.*

*Edo North has the second highest number of LGAs and the second highest number of eligible voters, which is 25.52% of the total number of eligible voters in Edo State.*

*Edo South has the highest number of eligible voters which is 57.97% of the total number of eligible voters in Edo State*

It may also be noticed that, Edo South alone where the LP candidate comes from, constitutes more than twice of the total number of eligible voters in both Edo Central and Edo North combined!

Therefore, with all the variables and factors considered, the LP’s candidate for the forthcoming governorship election in Edo State may jolly well cruise to victory by default; more so if Edo South people decide to vote for their own, in addition to the palpable “Omonoba” sentiments as evidenced in recent massive protests in Benin City against the perceived enemies of the Oba of the ancient Benin kingdom.

In that case, the remnant votes of the Edo Central people which may be majorly shared by the two prominent candidates from that zone and that of the Edo North, which may mainly favour the candidate of the former governor from that zone, the overall effect may be such that will eventually tend to be insignificant.

All things considered, if the forthcoming election in Edo State is peaceful, free, fair, transparent and credible, all that the LP’s candidate needs to win the election is to secure a huge majority vote from his Edo South people and then, make some strategic inroads into the other two zones to get the mandatory 25% of the votes cast in 2-3rd of the LGAs of the State.

This simply translates to having the majority of the total votes cast as well as 25% of the votes cast in 12 (twelve) LGAs of Edo State.

How these pans out will be an interesting watch!

In the final analysis, the ultimate decisions on who to vote for and/or against in the forthcoming governorship election in Edo State rests squarely on Edo State people. We wait to see!