News
Nigeria’s rebased inflation to hit 37% in 2026 – IMF
- /home/naijuinz/public_html/wp-content/plugins/mvp-social-buttons/mvp-social-buttons.php on line 27
https://naijablitznews.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/World-Bank.jpg&description=Nigeria’s rebased inflation to hit 37% in 2026 – IMF', 'pinterestShare', 'width=750,height=350'); return false;" title="Pin This Post">
- Share
- Tweet /home/naijuinz/public_html/wp-content/plugins/mvp-social-buttons/mvp-social-buttons.php on line 72
https://naijablitznews.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/World-Bank.jpg&description=Nigeria’s rebased inflation to hit 37% in 2026 – IMF', 'pinterestShare', 'width=750,height=350'); return false;" title="Pin This Post">
Nigeria’s headline inflation is projected to rise sharply to 37 per cent in 2026, according to the International Monetary Fund, which issued the forecast in its April 2025 World Economic Outlook report released on Tuesday.
The IMF said the new projection follows the rebasing of Nigeria’s Consumer Price Index by the National Bureau of Statistics in January 2025, and warned that persistent price pressures and structural constraints would likely keep inflation elevated over the medium term.
According to the Fund, inflation, which averaged 33.2 per cent in 2024, is expected to moderate slightly to 26.5 per cent in 2025 before surging to 37.0 per cent the following year.
The projection, however, has drawn mixed reactions from Nigerian economists, some of whom described the outlook as “excessively pessimistic” and detached from domestic policy realities.
The IMF report also downgraded Nigeria’s economic growth forecast for 2025, citing weakening global oil prices as a major risk to the country’s fiscal and external balances.
The Fund revised its 2025 GDP growth forecast for Nigeria downward by 0.2 percentage point to 3.0 per cent, down from 3.2 per cent. Growth for 2026 was also revised downward by 0.3 percentage point to 2.7 per cent.
The report stated, “Among the larger economies, the growth forecast in Nigeria is revised downward by 0.2 percentage point for 2025 and 0.3 percentage point for 2026, owing to lower oil prices.”
It noted that Nigeria, like many oil-exporting countries in Sub-Saharan Africa, remained highly vulnerable to external shocks, particularly commodity price declines, which continue to affect government revenue, trade balances, and investor sentiment.
Despite maintaining a current account surplus in 2024, Nigeria’s external position is expected to weaken.
The IMF projected that the current account surplus would shrink from 9.1 per cent of GDP in 2024 to 6.9 per cent in 2025, and further to 5.2 per cent in 2026.
This comes on the back of a balance of payments surplus of $6.83bn in 2024, according to data published by the Central Bank of Nigeria.
The surplus was largely driven by a goods trade balance of $13.17bn and a recovery in capital flows.
But analysts have warned that the surplus may not be sustained. Global investment bank JP Morgan said earlier this year that Nigeria could slide into a current account deficit if crude oil prices remain below its fiscal breakeven of $60 per barrel.
Fitch Ratings, however, gave a slightly more optimistic view. It projected that Nigeria’s current account surplus—estimated at 6.6 per cent of GDP in 2024—would average 3.3 per cent over 2025 and 2026, buoyed by improved local refining capacity and continued reforms in the energy sector.
On inflation, the IMF’s forecast follows Nigeria’s decision to rebase its CPI calculations. The National Bureau of Statistics announced in January 2025 that it had updated the base year from 2009 to 2024 to better reflect present-day consumption patterns.
Following the adjustment, inflation for January was recalculated at 24.48 per cent, down from 34.80 per cent recorded in December 2024 under the old base.
The inflation rate declined further to 23.18 per cent in February before edging up again to 24.23 per cent in March, a development that economists attribute to food price spikes, logistics bottlenecks, and foreign exchange volatility.
The Central Bank of Nigeria retained its Monetary Policy Rate at 27.5 per cent at its February meeting, noting the need to sustain tightening in the face of sticky inflation.
With both inflation and money supply rising in March, the CBN may be compelled to consider further hikes in its next policy meeting.
While the IMF did not provide any justification for the inflation projection, Nigerian economists have expressed reservations over the severity of the projection.
Adewale Abimbola, a Lagos-based economist, told The PUNCH that the IMF’s 37 per cent forecast may be overstated.
“Since the rebasing, inflation has hovered around 23 to 24 per cent. Even in 2024, when inflation was high and unrelenting, it averaged 33 per cent. So, I believe the IMF’s 37 per cent projection for 2026 is exaggerated,” he said.
Abimbola also offered recommendations for moderating inflation: “We need stronger support for the real sector to boost productivity, sustained CBN intervention to stabilise exchange rates, security enhancement in food-producing states, and continuation of the naira-for-crude policy to help manage petrol prices.”
Also speaking, economist and CEO of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise, Dr Muda Yusuf, said the Fund’s outlook did not fully account for domestic policy flexibility.
“Inflation in Nigeria is largely driven by supply-side constraints and exchange rate instability,” he said.
“If we address insecurity, especially in food-producing areas, food inflation—which is the largest component of headline inflation—will ease. If we also support manufacturers through fiscal measures and reduce production costs, inflation will moderate,” he added.
Yusuf criticised the IMF’s 37 per cent projection, arguing that it assumes no improvement in Nigeria’s fiscal discipline, oil output, or security architecture.
“I don’t see inflation getting to 37 per cent. That’s a worst-case scenario. If we manage our spending, reduce deficit financing, and improve oil earnings, our macroeconomic stability will improve. The outlook does not have to be that dire,” he said.
He further stressed the need for Nigeria to manage its monetary expansion carefully.
“We must keep money supply growth in check, reduce unnecessary borrowing, and avoid overheating the economy,” he added.
The President of the Nigerian Economic Society and former Head of Economics at the University of Ibadan, Prof. Adeola Adenikinju, agreed that Nigeria’s growth prospects have weakened but attributed this partly to global economic trends.
“The trend is consistent with what’s happening in other parts of the world. We are likely to post lower growth this year due to weak oil prices and low output,” he said.
Adenikinju added that local issues such as security in agricultural zones, high transport and energy costs, and poor infrastructure were worsening the outlook.
“These challenges have a ripple effect on output and inflation. Food prices will rise, and productivity will suffer,” he said.
He warned that the government’s expansionary fiscal stance might further fuel inflation if not managed prudently.
“If high spending leads to wider deficits financed by borrowing—especially from the CBN—it will drive inflation. We also have to watch the exchange rate, which continues to weaken. That will further feed into prices,” he said.
He noted that with inflation and money supply rising again in March, the CBN may be forced to raise rates further, a move that could slow economic activity in the short term.
The IMF also pointed to weak income growth in Nigeria, projecting that real output per capita will grow by just 0.6 per cent in 2025 and 0.3 per cent in 2026.
These figures, far below the Sub-Saharan Africa average, underscore the country’s inability to translate headline growth into tangible welfare improvements for citizens.
Economists say this highlights the need for Nigeria to diversify its economy away from oil, invest in infrastructure, address insecurity, and create enabling conditions for private investment to thrive.
The Federal Government has received the final report of the National Technical Working Group on the World Bank-supported $500 million Sustainable Agricultural Value Chains for Growth Programme (AGROW).
This was disclosed by Vice President Kashim Shettima at the Presidential Villa, Abuja, on Tuesday.
Mr Shettima noted that the receipt of the final report marks the conclusion of the programme’s design phase and its transition to implementation.
He said the government, through the AGROW programme, is bridging the gap between farmers and national planning and policy-making decisions at the centre.
The VP noted that while the challenge in the agricultural sector had been the distance between farmers who till the earth and the systems that determine what their labour is worth, the government is set to implement the process of shortening that distance.
The US$500 million World Bank-supported programme was developed through seven zonal consultations involving 32 states, reflecting the increasing commitment of subnational governments to agricultural development.
It also reflected the state’s readiness to assume greater responsibility for productivity, infrastructure, extension services and market development.
The Vice President described the AGROW programme report as the conclusion of a design process that restores the farmer to the centre of our national economic reasoning, where he has always belonged.
“Today marks the transition of AGROW from programme design to implementation,” he added.
Mr Shettima maintained that the World Bank US$500 million Nigerian agriculture programme is targeted at developing a programme rooted in the realities of farmers, delivered through Nigeria’s states, and capable of attracting the private investment required to move agriculture from subsistence to scale.
The Vice President noted that agriculture, a sector that accounts for 23 per cent of the nation’s GDP and sustains 34 per cent of its workforce, must not be treated as a negligible sector, attended to at leisure and financed at the margins.
He said no other sector carries as many livelihoods or touches as many households as the agriculture sector, noting that most Nigerians earn a living from the tilling of the soil.
“When yields rise, food prices ease, rural incomes recover, industries receive raw materials, and the pressure on our cities and foreign reserves begins to relax. When yields fall, the entire economy discovers the price of hunger.
“Productivity on the farm is therefore a question of growth, employment, food security and poverty reduction. What we do to the farm, we do to the nation,” Mr Shettima stated.
The Vice President expressed satisfaction with the response from states, saying it reveals the scale of the opportunity before the nation.
He stressed that the participation of 32 states in seven consultations to shape AGROW reflects “both the urgency of the challenges confronting agriculture and the growing appetite across Nigeria for agricultural development and investment.”
The Federal Government has clarified reports surrounding a budgetary provision for churches in Abia State, stating that the allocation is not a ₦1 billion expenditure solely for the purchase of musical instruments but part of a broader youth re-orientation and community support initiative.News In a statement issued on Wednesday by the Office of the Deputy Speaker of the House of Representatives, Rt. Hon. Benjamin Kalu, the office explained that the actual allocation stands at ₦780 million after Value Added Tax (VAT) and other statutory deductions.
According to the statement signed by the Deputy Speaker’s Chief Press Secretary, Levinus Nwabughiogu, the funds are earmarked for a Youth Re-orientation and Social Support Programme to be implemented through faith-based organisations across Bende Federal Constituency in Abia State.
The office said the programme will benefit more than 130 churches, with each expected to receive between ₦5 million and ₦6 million in the first phase of implementation. It explained that Bende Federal Constituency has 13 electoral wards and over 200 churches, adding that about 10 churches will be selected from each ward to participate in the initial phase.
According to the statement, the funds will be used to procure evangelical musical instruments and public address systems to strengthen church-led youth engagement initiatives aimed at tackling social vices, including drug abuse, sexual offences and violent crime, while promoting discipline, peace, moral values and character development among young people.
The Deputy Speaker’s office stressed that the intervention should not be viewed as an expenditure on musical instruments alone but as part of the government’s broader non-kinetic approach to addressing insecurity and promoting national unity through trusted community institutions. It argued that nation-building involves not only physical infrastructure but also investment in the moral and value systems of citizens, noting that faith-based organisations have long played critical roles in community development and youth mentorship.
The statement also pointed out that traditional institutions have similarly received government support through the provision of town halls and community engagement centres to preserve cultural values.
Responding to criticism generated by earlier reports, the office said claims that ₦1 billion was budgeted exclusively for church musical instruments misrepresented the purpose of the allocation.
It further disclosed that a technical error was identified in the procurement description contained in the budget, adding that a letter of corrigendum had already been initiated to correct the description through the appropriate budgetary process before implementation. The office also clarified that no funds have been released for the programme because the 2026 budget has not yet been funded or implemented.
It noted that Nigeria is currently operating under the 2024 and 2025 budgets and that procurement will only begin after the necessary releases are made.
The Deputy Speaker’s office urged the media and members of the public to disregard what it described as sensational reports and support initiatives aimed at promoting youth development, peace and moral values across communities.
Nigeria has dropped to 90th position on the latest Henley Passport Index, with holders of the Nigerian passport able to access 44 destinations without obtaining a visa in advance.
The July 2026 global ranking, released by Henley & Partners on Tuesday, ranked the Nigerian passport 90th out of 199 passports assessed worldwide, with a visa-free score of 44.
The new ranking marks a one-place drop from the 89th position Nigeria occupied in the April 2026 edition of the index, while the country’s visa-free score remained unchanged at 44 destinations.
In a statement on its website on Tuesday, Henley & Partners said the index, released on the occasion of its 20th anniversary, ranks passports based on the number of destinations their holders can access without obtaining a prior visa.
It added that the ranking covers 199 passports and 227 travel destinations using data from the International Air Transport Association.
Among African countries, South Africa retained the continent’s strongest passport, ranking 49th globally with visa-free access to 101 destinations.
Botswana followed in 61st place with access to 81 destinations, while Ghana ranked 70th with a visa-free score of 67. Morocco placed 67th with 71 destinations, while Kenya shared the 68th position with 70 destinations.
Nigeria ranked alongside the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Turkmenistan, each with visa-free access to 44 destinations.
Globally, Singapore retained the world’s most powerful passport, offering visa-free access to 192 destinations.
Japan ranked second with access to 188 destinations, while South Korea and the United Arab Emirates shared third place with 187 destinations.
The United States of America sits disappointingly at 10th position with 180 destinations.
At the bottom of the ranking, Afghanistan remained the world’s weakest passport, with visa-free access to just 22 destinations.
Syria ranked 103rd with access to 25 destinations, while Iraq placed 102nd with 28 destinations.
The latest ranking comes months after Nigeria climbed six places on the Henley Passport Index between January 2024 and April 2026, rising from 95th to 89th despite its visa-free access falling from 45 to 44 destinations.
According to Henley’s April 2026 report, Nigeria lost visa-free access to countries including Zambia, Zimbabwe, Lesotho, Mauritania, São Tomé and Príncipe and Somalia over recent years, although it gained access to several Pacific island destinations.
FG gets final report for $500m World Bank -backed AGROW program
Just in: FG Allocates ₦780m to 130 Churches, Each to Receive ₦5m–₦6m
Nigeria drops to 90th in latest global passport ranking(See List)
-
News21 hours agoAEF-Ethiopia Forge Partnership to Drive Investment, Intra-African Trade
-
News23 hours agoFake Agency: PFIPC Never Recognised by FG – Foreign Ministry
-
News23 hours agoAl-Ittihad Star George Ilenikhena Honours Cleric with Car Gift
-
News23 hours agoGood news: State governor increases minimum pension for retirees
-
News22 hours agoBreaking: CBN retains interest rate at 26.5%
-
News18 hours agoNNPCL jerks up fuel price by N115 per liter
-
News23 hours agoBill against same-sex marriage passes second reading in Cross River Assembly
-
News11 hours agoOndo Assembly Crisis Deepens As Lawmakers Reportedly Secure 21 Signatures To Impeach Speaker Over OSOPADEC Funds Scandal
Warning: Undefined variable $user_ID in /home/naijuinz/public_html/wp-content/themes/zox-news/comments.php on line 49
You must be logged in to post a comment Login