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Inflation surged to 24.23% due to escalating cost of living

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Inflationary pressure has reappeared as Nigerians grapple with increases in average costs of basic food items and energy.

For the first time after the rebasing of the Consumer Price Index (CPI), headline inflation spiked in March to 24.23 per cent –  105 basis points above the 23.18 per cent recorded in the previous month.

The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) yesterday indicated that the rate of increase in the average price level was higher in March than the level in February.

In January, the NBS updated the weight and price reference periods in calculation of the CPI to make the inflationary gauge more reflective of changes in consumption patterns and the economy generally.

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The rebasing did not only brought the base year closer to the current period from 2009 to 2024, it also introduced some critical methodology changes to improve the computation processes.

After the rebasing, inflation dropped from 34.80 per cent in the pre-rebased period of December 2024 to 24.48 per cent in January 2025. It dropped further to 23.18 per cent in February.

In its latest report, NBS recorded 186 basis points changes between the monthly inflation rate, with the month-on-month rate rising from 2.04 per cent in February to 3.90 per cent in March.

The NBS attributed the spike to the rise in costs of food and alcoholic beverages, fuels and electricity, among other items.

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Analysts at CardinalStone said the resurgence was due to renewed foreign exchange (forex) pressures amid heightened global risk-off sentiment.

They pointed at foreign portfolio investments (FPIs) outflows and increased dollar demand, which saw naira dropping by 2.4 per cent in March.

Experts also cited increase in price of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) or petrol, following the temporary suspension of the naira-for-crude swap arrangement.

Food inflation rate stood at 21.79 per cent in March 2025. The composite food index decreased to 21.79 per cent from 23.51 per cent.

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Core inflation, which excludes volatile agricultural produce prices and energy, rose to 24.43 per cent from 23.01 per cent.

Specifically, the month-on-month food inflation rose by 50 basis points from 1.67 per cent in February to 2.18 per cent in March.

The NBS attributed the increase in food inflation to increases in the average prices of basic food items including ginger, garri, broken rice, honey, crabs, potatoes, plantain flour, periwinkle and pepper amongst others.

On a state-by-state basis, food inflation was higher in Oyo with 34.41 per cent; Kaduna (31.14 per cent) and Kebbi (30.85 per cent).

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On the other side, the 9.61 per cent recorded by Bayelsa; Adamawa (12.41 per cent) and Akwa Ibom (12.60 per cent), were the lowest inflation rates.

Analysts expressed concerns that the resurgent inflationary pressure might lead to renewed tightening stance by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN).

CBN Governor Dr. Olayemi Cardoso, had at the end of the first Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting in 2025, reiterated the apex bank’s commitment to orthodox monetary policies, noting that the apex bank’s stance will be reflective of the inflationary trend.

With inflation rate dropping in February, the MPC had decided to maintain all key monetary policy parameters, including the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) at 27.50 per cent, the asymmetric corridor around the MPR at +500/-100 basis points, the Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) at 50.00 per cent for Deposit Money Banks and 16.00 per cent for Merchant Banks, and the Liquidity Ratio at 30.00 per cent.

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Clarifying the impact of the rebased CPI, Cardoso had explained that the lower inflation figure should not be misinterpreted.

He underlined the need to analyse more data before drawing comparisons, noting that the CBN is currently assessing the figures and will provide further guidance in due course.

The CBN boss stressed the critical importance of collaboration between monetary and fiscal authorities in sustaining recent economic improvements.

Addressing concerns about the impact of elevated borrowing costs on economic growth, the CBN governor assured that the apex bank’s primary objective is to stabilize the foreign exchange and financial markets.

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He expressed confidence that such stability would attract increased foreign investments, stimulating the much-needed economic growth.

Cardoso also highlighted the competitiveness of the Nigerian currency, which has spurred growing interest from international investors.

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Economy

IMF questions Nigeria’s $5bn borrowing structure

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The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has raised concerns over Nigeria’s plan to secure up to $5 billion in external financing through a derivatives-based arrangement with the First Abu Dhabi Bank in the United Arab Emirates.

The warning was issued by Christian Ebeke, the IMF’s resident representative in Nigeria, who told journalists that such financial structures are often complex and lack transparency in their terms.

According to him, similar transactions in other countries have raised red flags due to limited disclosure and difficulty in fully assessing the obligations involved.

“Our view is that the transaction in these types of structures carry risks. Usually they are opaque, so the terms are not always very transparent when we reviewed these instruments across countries,” Ebeke said.

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He advised that Nigeria consider more conventional funding options, including Eurobonds or concessional loans, which he said tend to offer clearer terms and lower risk exposure for sovereign borrowers.

The development comes as Nigeria continues to ramp up external borrowing to finance its fiscal needs and infrastructure plans. On March 31, the National Assembly approved President Bola Tinubu’s request for $6 billion in external loans.

As part of the approval process, the president specifically sought backing for a structured Total Return Swap (TRS) arrangement of up to $5 billion with First Abu Dhabi Bank.

The federal government has argued that the funds would support budget implementation, infrastructure development, and the refinancing of more expensive domestic and external debts.

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However, the IMF’s comments add to ongoing global scrutiny of complex sovereign financing arrangements, particularly those involving derivatives-based instruments that can obscure the true cost of borrowing.

Nigeria’s public debt stock currently stands at about $110.3 billion (approximately N159.2 trillion as of December 2025), underscoring concerns about debt sustainability as new borrowing plans expand.

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Economy

OPEC+ approves fourth oil output increase since Hormuz closure

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The Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, also known as OPEC+, has approved the fourth oil output increase since the Hormuz closure crisis.

The decision followed renewed commitments by Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman to support market stability.

In a statement issued at the weekend, OPEC stated: “The seven OPEC+ countries, which previously announced additional voluntary adjustments in April and November 2023, namely Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman, met virtually on June 7, 2026, to review global market conditions and outlook.

“In their collective commitment to support oil market stability, the seven participating countries decided to implement a production adjustment of 188,000 barrels per day from the additional voluntary adjustments announced in April 2023.

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“This adjustment will be implemented in July 2026. The additional voluntary adjustments announced in April 2023 may be returned in part or in full, subject to evolving market conditions and in a gradual manner.

“The countries will continue to closely monitor and assess market conditions and, in their continuous efforts to support market stability, reaffirmed the importance of adopting a cautious approach and retaining full flexibility to increase, pause or reverse the phase-out of the voluntary production adjustments, including reversing the previously implemented voluntary adjustments announced in November 2023.

“The seven OPEC+ countries also noted that this measure will provide an opportunity for the participating countries to accelerate their compensation.

“The seven countries reiterated their collective commitment to achieving full conformity with the Declaration of Cooperation, including the voluntary production adjustments, which will be monitored by the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC).

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“They also confirmed their intention to fully compensate for any overproduced volumes since January 2024. The compensation period will be extended until the end of December 2026.”

It added: “The seven OPEC+ countries will hold monthly meetings to review market conditions, conformity and compensation. The seven countries will meet on July 5, 2026.”

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Economy

Naira depreciates to N1,397/$ in parallel market

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The naira on Friday depreciated to N1,397 per dollar in the parallel market from N1,390 per dollar on Thursday.

Likewise, the naira depreciated to N1,365 per dollar in the Nigerian Foreign Exchange Market, NFEM.

Data from the Central Bank of Nigeria, CBN, showed that the indicative exchange rate for the market rose to N1,365 per dollar from N1,359.75 per dollar on Thursday, reflecting N5.25 depreciation for the naira.

Consequently, the margin between the parallel and official markets widened to N32 per dollar from N30.25 per dollar on Thursday.

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The turnover in the interbank foreign exchange market recorded its fourth daily decline by 42.5 per cent to $73.6 million from $128.2 million on Thursday.

This week, the naira strengthened by N1 per dollar in the official market, with turnover in the interbank foreign exchange market climbing to N683.2 million, representing a 76.7 per cent rise compared to N386.54 million recorded the previous week.

However, the local currency weakened in the parallel by N2 against the greenback.

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