Economy
Nigeria’s economy experiencing growth as GDP grows 3.84% in Q4
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Nigeria’s strategy to reduce its dependence on oil is proving effective, with the non-oil sector contributing 95.40 percent to the gross domestic product (GDP) in real terms in the fourth quarter of 2024.
The oil sector, however, only accounted for a scant 4.60 percent during this period.
The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) had previously communicated its plans to rebase the GDP but has since reverted to the traditional approach.
Although there was no explanation from the statistics house on why it failed to rebase the GDP, speculations are that it stepped back because of the backlash it received from the rebased CPI figures it released just last week.
Analysts say the inability to release rebased GDP figures is a significant concern, noting that rebased figures are essential for providing an accurate and up-to-date picture of the economy.
They say that without rebasing, the GDP figures may not accurately reflect the current structure and size of the Nigerian economy, particularly given the rapid changes in sectors like technology and services.
The reform measures introduced by the present administration brought with them intense hardship on the populace. With high inflation draining the purchasing power of the citizens, many businesses have either shut down or found their way out of the country, throwing many into the unemployment market.
According to the report released yesterday, the gross domestic product (GDP) in real terms grew by 3.84 per cent in the fourth quarter (Q4) of 2024 on a year-on-year basis, which is 0.38 percentage points higher than the rate recorded in Q4 2023, which was 3.46 per cent.
The report shows that the year 2024 ended with an overall annual GDP growth rate of 3.40 per cent. This is higher than the projections by agencies like the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which had earlier projected that the country’s GDP would grow by 3.2 per cent in 2024.
The NBS reports that the services sector remains the major driver of the economy, growing by 5.37 per cent and contributing 57.38 per cent to the aggregate GDP. On a quarter-on-quarter basis, the real GDP grew by 10.99 per cent in Q4 2024, reflecting a higher production level than in Q3 2024.
The estimated economic activity in real terms for Q4 2024 stood at ₦22,610,393.45 million, which is higher than the rates recorded in Q3 2024 and Q4 2023, which stood at ₦20,115,766.93 million and ₦21,773,263.25 million, respectively.
In nominal terms, aggregate GDP stood at ₦78,374,120.95 million in Q4 of 2024, indicating a year-on-year nominal growth rate of 18.91 per cent.
This is higher than the value of ₦65,908,258.59 million in Q4 2023 and ₦71,131,091.07 million in the preceding quarter.
The NBS reports that the economic performance of the non-oil sector in Q4 2024 is attributed to the growth recorded in some economic activities, including rail transport and pipelines, metal ores, financial institutions, road transport, quarrying and other minerals, and insurance.
An analysis of the report shows that the major contributing economic activities in real terms in the quarter under review are crop production (23.42 per cent), trade (15.11 per cent), telecommunication (14.40 per cent), real estate (5.88 per cent), financial institutions (5.76 per cent), and crude petroleum (4.60 per cent).
The agricultural sector grew by 1.76 per cent, while the industry grew by 2.00 per cent, showing a decline compared to the rate recorded in Q4 2023 at 2.10 per cent and 3.86 per cent.
The report shows that agriculture contributed 25.59 per cent, industry 17.03 per cent, and services 57.38 per cent. Agriculture and industry’s contributions were less than their contributions in Q4 of 2023 by 0.53 per cent and 0.31 percentage points. The services sector had the highest contribution to the GDP in Q4 2024, surpassing its contribution in the corresponding quarter of 2023 by 0.83 percentage points.
The annual contributions of the economic sectors show that agriculture contributed 24.64 per cent in 2024, which is lower compared to its contribution of 25.18 per cent in 2023. Similarly, the industry sector’s annual contribution was 18.47 per cent, which is also lower than the figure recorded for 2023, which was 18.65 per cent.
However, the services sector’s contribution for 2024 was 56.89 per cent, exceeding the 56.18 per cent recorded for 2023.
Further disaggregation of the economic activities into oil and non-oil sectors shows that oil GDP grew by 1.48 per cent in Q4 2024, which is a decline compared to 12.11 per cent recorded in Q4 2023 and the previous quarter of Q3 2024, which stood at 5.17 per cent.
The annual oil GDP for 2024 grew by 5.54 per cent, which is 7.75 per cent higher than the annual GDP recorded for 2023 (-2.22 per cent), while the annual contribution of oil stood at 5.51 per cent in 2024, higher than its contribution in Q4 2023, which was 5.40 per cent.
The report also shows that the fourth quarter of 2024 recorded an average daily oil production of 1.54 million barrels per day (mbpd), lower than the daily average production of 1.56 mbpd recorded in the same quarter of 2023 by 0.03 mbpd.
On the contrary, the fourth quarter of 2024 production volume was higher than that of the third quarter of 2024 (1.47 mbpd) by 0.06 mbpd.
Reacting to the GDP report, Professor Godwin Oyedokun of Lead City University, Ibadan, said the GDP growth is a moderately positive sign, but the lack of rebased figures raises concerns.
He said, “The Nigerian government needs to address the challenges of data collection and rebasing, as well as focus on inclusive growth and economic diversification. This lack of current data makes it harder to properly create effective economic policy.”
Economy
CBN targets 95% financial inclusion in new payment system goal
The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has unveiled an ambitious blueprint to transform the country’s payment ecosystem with the launch of ‘Nigeria Payments System Vision (PSV) 2028’.
The bank, in the document unveiled in Abuja yesterday, has set the target of raising financial inclusion to 95 per cent, drastically reducing fraud and accelerating Nigeria’s transition to a cash-lite economy as part of efforts to support the $1 trillion economy target.
A similar initiative was launched in 2022, but the promoters fell short of the targets.
The governor, Yemi Cardoso, said the roadmap would ensure faster, safer and more inclusive financial transactions while positioning Nigeria as Africa’s leading digital payments hub.
Cardoso outlined an expansive vision that will see millions of previously excluded Nigerians, particularly market women, farmers, artisans, and young people, brought into the formal financial system through accessible digital payment channels and stronger consumer protection mechanisms.
He said the apex bank aimed to increase financial inclusion from current levels to 95 per cent in 2028, effectively bringing an additional 50 million Nigerians into the banking system.
“That means 50 million more market women, farmers and young people will have bank accounts with their names and Bank Verification Number (BVN) protecting them,” he said.
The governor also signalled an aggressive push to reduce cash transactions across the economy, expressing concern that many Nigerians still prefer cash despite rapid advancement in digital payments.
He expressed disappointment that sellers refused cash transfers during the recent Sallah celebration, insisting on cash as a mode of payment.
This, to him, buttressed the need for greater trust in digital payment systems.
Under the vision, the CBN hopes to reduce cash circulating outside the formal banking system to below 40 per cent of total circulation while promoting widespread adoption of digital payment channels through technologies such as QR codes and tap-to-phone solutions.
As of April, cash outside the financial system stood at N5.08 trillion or 90 per cent of the total currency in circulation (N5.65 trillion).
Cardoso said the objective is to deploy up to 10 million QR-enabled payment points across markets, transport hubs and rural communities, allowing Nigerians to make secure and affordable digital payments regardless of location.
To reinforce confidence, Cardoso disclosed that the apex bank intended to cut fraud losses to less than 0.001 per cent of total transaction volume, leveraging artificial intelligence, enhanced BVN integration and advanced fraud-detection systems.
Beyond payments, Cardoso said PSV 2028 was designed to position Nigeria as a leading centre for financial innovation, with open banking, application programming interfaces (APIs), artificial intelligence and other emerging technologies expected to drive the next phase of growth.
He expressed confidence that Nigerian innovators could build globally competitive fintech firms in major cities, leveraging local talent and technology to develop products that serve both domestic and international markets.
Cardoso noted that the ultimate test of PSV 2028 would not be its targets, but the ability of government, financial institutions, fintech firms and technology providers to deliver a payment ecosystem that is trusted, inclusive, and capable of supporting economic transformation.
The Deputy Governor for Economic Policy, Dr Muhammad Sani Abdullahi, described the vision as a strategic framework to strengthen the foundations of Nigeria’s digital economy and enhance the country’s competitiveness in regional and global commerce.
According to him, modern payment systems have evolved beyond simple transaction platforms to become critical economic infrastructure supporting trade, investment, financial inclusion, productivity and innovation.
The PSV 2028, he said, was anchored on five strategic pillars: infrastructure development, digital financial inclusion and consumer protection, innovation and emerging technologies, cross-border payments and digital assets and regulation, risk management and cybersecurity.
According to him, efficient infrastructure would reduce transaction costs, improve business productivity and create the digital rails needed to support a rapidly expanding economy.
Abdullahi said the initiative is expected to reduce exclusion across gender, geography and income groups while integrating more individuals and small businesses into the formal economy.
Abdullahi stressed that trust remains the most valuable asset in any financial ecosystem and that securing payment infrastructure would be essential to attracting investment and sustaining economic growth.
He described PSV 2028 as more than a policy document, calling it a national economic architecture designed to accelerate trade, improve productivity, support entrepreneurship and expand prosperity.
The launch comes amid growing efforts by both the fiscal and monetary authorities to leverage digital technology as a driver of economic diversification, financial inclusion and regional integration.
Also speaking at the unveiling event, Executive Vice Chairman of the Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC), Dr Aminu Maida, described the initiative as a major pillar supporting President Bola Tinubu’s ambition of building a $1 trillion economy.
Maida said recent reforms in the foreign exchange market and broader macroeconomic environment have helped to stabilise key sectors, including telecommunications, thereby creating a stronger foundation for digital financial services.
However, he warned that rising cyber fraud and cross-border financial crimes pose significant threats to the growth of the digital economy.
Economy
Middle East Tensions: Oil Prices Jump as Iran Suspends Peace Talks with US
Global oil prices recorded significant gains on Monday after Iran announced the suspension of ongoing peace talks, heightening concerns over regional stability and the security of global energy supplies.
The development sent shockwaves through international markets, with investors reacting to fears that escalating tensions in the Middle East could disrupt crude oil exports and further strain global supply chains.
Brent crude futures climbed sharply, approaching the $100-per-barrel threshold, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude also posted strong gains during trading. Analysts attributed the rally to growing uncertainty surrounding diplomatic efforts aimed at easing tensions in the region.
Reports indicated that Tehran halted negotiations amid increasing hostilities involving Iran, Israel, and allied forces across the Middle East. The suspension of talks has raised concerns that prospects for a diplomatic resolution may be diminishing, potentially increasing the risk of broader regional instability.
Energy traders are particularly focused on the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most critical oil transit routes. The narrow waterway handles approximately 20 percent of global oil shipments, making it a strategic chokepoint for international energy markets.
Market analysts warned that any threat to shipping activities through the Strait of Hormuz could trigger further price increases and intensify inflationary pressures across major economies.
“The market is reacting to geopolitical risk premiums,” energy analysts noted, explaining that uncertainty over future supply remains a key factor driving oil prices higher.
The spike in crude prices also weighed on global equity markets, with investors expressing concerns that sustained increases in energy costs could impact economic growth, corporate earnings, and consumer spending.
Financial markets in Europe, Asia, and North America recorded mixed performances as traders assessed the potential implications of a prolonged diplomatic standoff and its impact on global energy security.
Experts say developments in the coming days will be closely monitored by governments, energy companies, and investors worldwide. Should tensions continue to escalate without renewed diplomatic engagement, oil prices could breach the $100-per-barrel mark and remain elevated for an extended period.
The latest surge underscores the sensitivity of global energy markets to geopolitical developments in the Middle East, a region that remains central to worldwide oil production and supply.This version follows a standard NewsMediang news-report format with a stronger lead, broader market context, and balanced analysis.
Iran says it suspended peace talks with the United States mainly because it believes Washington has failed to restrain Israel’s military actions and has not honored broader ceasefire understandings linked to the negotiations.
According to Iranian officials and state-affiliated media, Tehran is angry over continued Israeli strikes in Lebanon and Gaza while diplomatic efforts were ongoing. Iran argues that any ceasefire or peace arrangement should apply across all fronts in the region, not only between Iran and the U.S.
Key reasons Iran has given include:
Israeli military operations in Lebanon and Gaza: Iran says the attacks undermine the atmosphere needed for negotiations and violate understandings reached through mediators.
Lack of trust in the U.S.: Iranian officials have repeatedly said they do not believe Washington can guarantee that agreements will be respected, pointing to previous disputes and failed negotiations.
Disagreements over Iran’s nuclear and missile programs: The U.S. has pushed for stricter limits on uranium enrichment, missile development, and support for allied armed groups, while Iran insists on protecting what it calls its sovereign rights.
Regional security demands: Iran wants broader guarantees, including an end to attacks by Israel, withdrawal from contested areas, and security assurances against future military action.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi has warned that if hostilities continue in Lebanon and elsewhere, Tehran sees little value in continuing negotiations.
The United States, however, has given mixed signals. President Donald Trump said he had not been formally informed that talks were over and later insisted discussions were still continuing, despite Iran’s announcement.
The suspension has heightened fears of a wider Middle East conflict, which is why oil prices rose sharply as traders worried about potential disruptions to supplies moving through the strategic Strait of Hormuz.
Economy
See Exchange Rate Naira To The Dollar, Today June 1
On the first day of the new month, June 2026, the exchange rate Naira to the Dollar is one of relative stability at both the official window and the parallel market.
This submission flows from the data published by the apex monetary policy regulatory agency, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN).
The Naira traded at ₦1,373.25 to the dollar at the official window, the Nigerian Foreign Exchange Market (NFEM) on May 29, being the latest available official rate at the start of trading on June 1.
The rate was relatively stable, at a high of ₦1,375 and a low of ₦1,372 during the trading session, a stability attributed to improved interbank transactions and sustained liquidity in the foreign exchange market.
In the parallel market, commonly referred to as the black market, the dollar exchanged at about ₦1,375 for buying and between ₦1,385 and ₦1,405 for selling on June 1, depending on location and dealer quotations.
Currency tracking platforms showed the average black market selling rate hovering around ₦1,385 per dollar, while the official NFEM rate remained near ₦1,373.25, leaving a narrow gap between both market segments.
The exchange rate Naira to the Dollar today has remained relatively stable in recent weeks, making projections by forex users reliable as against, high volatility of previous times.
This is kudos to the Central Bank of Nigeria which continues to dole out and supervise necessary market reforms and liquidity management efforts.
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