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Oil prices settle 2% lower as economic worries outweigh supply risks

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Oil prices slid about 2% on Thursday on worries that rising inflation and other economic concerns could weigh on global oil ​demand despite continuing supply constraints as the the U.S.-Iran conflict has delayed full reopening of Strait of Hormuz.

About 20% of global oil supplies passed through the strait ‌before the war.

Brent futures fell $1.72, or 2.2%, to settle at $76.30 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell $1.44, or 2.0%, to settle at $72.08.

On Wednesday, Brent closed at its highest since June 19 and WTI closed at its highest since June 22.

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Iranian armed forces launched attacks on U.S. military infrastructure in Gulf states on Thursday following U.S. strikes on Iran’s southern coastal and eastern provinces, further straining a three-week-old ceasefire agreement.

The attacks came on ​the day that Iran buried its slain Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei at the shrine of Mashhad, the culmination of a week of mass funeral processions and rallies. ​Khamenei was killed on the first day of the war on February 28. Separately, several explosions were heard in Iran including in Bushehr, where one ⁠of Iran’s nuclear plants is located.

“We expect the renewed tension in the Middle East between the U.S. and Iran to be relatively short-lived because both countries are constrained by practical economic and ​political realities,” Vikas Dwivedi, global energy strategist at Macquarie Group, said in a note.

Qatar, which has often mediated between Washington and its adversaries including Tehran, condemned attacks on commercial shipping and called ​for a return to diplomacy. Foreign ministers of Turkey and Oman also stressed the need to avoid further military escalation in calls with their Iranian counterpart, Abbas Araqchi.

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“After two days of attacks, Iran appears to be on the phone looking to scale back hostilities and possibly return to the negotiating table,” Bob Yawger, director of energy futures at Mizuho, said in a note.

Iran’s Revolutionary Guards Navy said the U.S. attacks and intervention in ​redirecting shipping through the Strait of Hormuz were disrupting the waterway’s gradual reopening.

“Our estimated oil flows from the Persian Gulf recovered to above 80% of pre-war flows within the first 10 ​days after Hormuz reopening as trapped tankers rushed to leave the Persian Gulf, but retreated to the low-70s% of normal following recent attacks on tankers,” analysts at U.S. bank Goldman Sachs said in a report.

U.S. ‌JOBS AND ⁠INFLATION

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In the U.S., the number of Americans filing claims for unemployment benefits fell last week, supporting economists’ views that the labor market remained in a “slow-hire, slow-fire” mode.

Minutes of the Federal Reserve’s June 16 to 17 meeting showed policymakers’ concerns about inflation mounted last month and they “generally expected labor market conditions to remain stable in the near term, with the unemployment rate staying close to current levels.”

New York Federal Reserve President John Williams said on Thursday he did not expect a sustained rise in energy prices for the rest of the year despite the of hostilities in the Middle East, and ​declined to say what decision he would ​make on interest rates at a policy ⁠meeting later this month.

When the Fed boosts interest rates to keep inflation in check, it can reduce economic growth and cut demand for oil.

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In China, the world’s second-biggest economy behind the U.S., producer price inflation surged in June to its highest level in four years, piling pressure on manufacturers’ ​profit margins as weak domestic demand limited pricing power.

UKRAINIAN DRONES HIT RUSSIAN TANKERS

In Europe, Ukrainian drones hit a dozen more Russian tankers in ​the Sea of Azov overnight, ⁠Ukraine’s military said, the latest in a campaign aimed at disrupting fuel supplies to Russian forces and isolating Moscow-occupied Crimea.

On Wednesday, U.S. diesel futures posted their biggest daily percentage gain in four years after Russia announced a ban on exports of the industrial fuel, supercharging supply concerns in a market grappling with uncertainty about Middle Eastern oil flows.

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Russia said the U.S. was wrong to believe deep Ukrainian strikes into ⁠Russian territory could ​help end more than four years of war, and could instead prolong it.

A settlement in the Ukraine war could result ​in the lifting of some sanctions on Russia, which could allow Moscow to export more oil. Russia was the world’s third-biggest crude oil producer behind the U.S. and Saudi Arabia in 2025, according to U.S. energy data.

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Economy

2024 Bid Round: NUPRC hands oil prospecting licences to 12 firms

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The Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) has formally presented Petroleum Prospecting Licences (PPLs) to successful bidders in the 2024 oil licensing round, issuing 19 prospecting licences to 12 companies as part of efforts to attract fresh investment into Nigeria’s upstream petroleum sector.

The concession contracts and licences were presented during the ongoing Nigeria Oil and Gas (NOG) Energy Week 2026 in Abuja, marking the commencement of exploration activities across deep offshore, shallow water and continental shelf acreages.

Among the beneficiaries are Boron Energy Limited (PPL 2009), Energy Marketing and Supply Limited (PPL 269), Sahara Deepwater Resources Limited (PPLs 270 and 271), and Tulkan Energy E&P Company Limited (PPL 2008).

The execution of the concession contracts establishes the legal, fiscal and commercial framework governing the licence holders under the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) 2021, paving the way for the formal grant of the petroleum prospecting licences.

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According to the Commission, the exercise marks another milestone in Nigeria’s efforts to unlock new investments in the upstream petroleum industry, accelerate exploration activities, increase hydrocarbon reserves and create long-term economic value.

NUPRC said the portfolio of assets awarded reflects the broad investment opportunities available in Nigeria’s upstream sector and is expected to stimulate exploration, boost production capacity and strengthen investor confidence in the country’s regulatory framework.

While some of the successful companies signed their concession contracts during the NOG Energy Week, the Commission said those not represented at the event would complete the process on mutually agreed dates.

Meanwhile, Nigeria recorded another significant investment commitment in the upstream sector as ESSO Exploration and Production Nigeria Offshore East Limited announced plans to invest more than $300 million in the Usan Infill Project.

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The project is expected to add about 40,000 barrels of oil per day to Nigeria’s deepwater production and generate an estimated $1.2 billion in revenue over the next four years.

Speaking at the unveiling of the project, Chairman and Managing Director of ESSO Nigeria, Jagir Baxi, said the investment marks the company’s return to deepwater drilling after nearly a decade and aligns with the Federal Government’s objective of increasing crude oil production.

He said the project was designed as a short-cycle investment capable of delivering first oil within about six months of offshore execution, with peak production expected within 18 months.

Speaking on the development, NUPRC Chief Executive, Mrs. Oritsemeyiwa Eyesan, described the project as a strong vote of confidence in Nigeria’s upstream petroleum sector, noting that it represents ESSO’s first drilling campaign since 2016.

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She said regulatory interventions by the Commission helped unlock the long-delayed project and reaffirmed NUPRC’s commitment to creating an investment-friendly environment that supports timely project delivery, improves operational efficiency and attracts fresh capital into the oil and gas industry.

Eyesan added that sustained investment in both new developments and existing producing assets would be critical to achieving Nigeria’s production targets, growing hydrocarbon reserves and boosting government revenue.

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CBN Clarifies Status Of ₦100 Notes In Nigeria

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The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has reaffirmed that the standard ₦100 banknote remains legal tender and must be accepted for all financial transactions across the country.

The apex bank also clarified that both the standard ₦100 note and the commemorative ₦100 banknote issued to mark Nigeria’s centenary are valid legal tender and can be used interchangeably for payments nationwide.

The clarification was contained in a statement issued on Wednesday by the CBN’s Acting Director of Corporate Communications, Hakama Sidi-Ali, following reports that some individuals, businesses, and other stakeholders had begun rejecting the standard ₦100 note over doubts about its legal status.

According to the CBN, the misconception appears to have created unnecessary confusion among members of the public, prompting the bank to reassure Nigerians that there has been no directive withdrawing the standard ₦100 banknote from circulation.

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The apex bank explained that the commemorative ₦100 note, introduced to celebrate Nigeria’s centenary, was designed to circulate alongside the existing standard note and was never intended to replace it.

It stressed that both versions remain valid and retain the same legal status under Nigerian law.

The CBN warned that refusing to accept the standard ₦100 note is a violation of the provisions of the CBN Act and could attract regulatory sanctions.

The bank urged individuals, business owners, financial institutions, traders, transport operators, and other economic participants to continue accepting both versions of the ₦100 note without discrimination.

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According to the statement, the rejection of any valid Nigerian banknote undermines public confidence in the country’s currency and disrupts smooth commercial activities.

The statement read in part: “The attention of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has been drawn to reports of the rejection of the standard ₦100 banknote by some members of the public, businesses, and other stakeholders, apparently due to doubts about its continued legal tender status.

“For the avoidance of doubt, the CBN hereby reiterates that both the commemorative ₦100 banknote and the standard ₦100 banknote remain legal tender in Nigeria and must be accepted for all transactions nationwide.

“The commemorative ₦100 banknote, which was introduced to mark Nigeria’s centenary, did not replace the existing standard ₦100 banknote.

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“The CBN strongly cautions individuals, businesses, financial institutions, and other economic agents against rejecting the standard ₦100 banknote.

“Such rejection constitutes a violation of the provisions of the CBN Act and undermines confidence in the national currency.”

The CBN further warned that it would not hesitate to invoke the appropriate enforcement measures against any individual or organization found to be unlawfully rejecting the standard ₦100 note.

The latest clarification is expected to dispel uncertainty surrounding the circulation of the ₦100 banknote and reinforce public confidence in the continued validity of all officially recognized Nigerian currency notes.

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Dangote breaks ground on $17bn Kenya refinery

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Dangote Industries Limited has commenced preliminary works on its proposed $17bn, 700,000-barrels-per-day refinery in Kenya, marking the first major step towards what is expected to become East Africa’s largest refining project.

The company said the project has advanced beyond the planning stage, with the site already selected, soil tests ongoing and engineering and design work underway ahead of construction.

According to Reuters, the refinery, which will be located on Lamu Island off the Kenyan coast, is expected to take about three years to complete and will supply refined petroleum products to Kenya and neighbouring countries, reducing East Africa’s dependence on imported fuels.

The development comes as Bloomberg reported on Tuesday that President of the Dangote Group, Aliko Dangote, plans to build the refinery at an estimated cost of up to $17bn as part of efforts to expand his refining empire into East Africa.

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Citing a spokesman for Dangote Industries Ltd., Bloomberg reported that the proposed refinery would replicate the company’s refinery in Lagos and process about 700,000 barrels of crude oil per day when completed.

The report read, “A new mega-refinery to be built at the Kenyan coast by Africa’s richest person will cost as much as $17bn, a spokesman for Dangote Industries Ltd. has confirmed.

“Billionaire Aliko Dangote personally pledged to the leaders of Kenya and Uganda that he would set up a replica of his 700,000-barrel-a-day refinery outside Lagos in East Africa. The refinery would take about five years to build.”

According to the report, Dangote personally assured the Presidents of Kenya and Uganda that he would establish the refinery in East Africa. The report recalled that Kenyan President William Ruto announced in May that Dangote would commence construction of the refinery this year.

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Speaking to Reuters, Dangote Industries’ Vice President for Oil and Gas, Devakumar Edwin, said the company had made significant progress on the project. “The site has been selected, soil tests are underway, and design and engineering work has commenced. Kenya was the choice from the beginning,” he told Reuters.

According to Bloomberg, Dangote said the coastal town of Lamu in southeastern Kenya was selected as the preferred location “for commercial and technical reasons,” although he did not provide further details.

The report added that Tanzania had initially been considered as a possible location for the refinery before Kenya emerged as the preferred destination.

The project represents Dangote Group’s biggest refining investment outside Nigeria and forms part of the company’s ambition to expand refining capacity across Africa following the commencement of operations at its 650,000-barrels-per-day refinery in Lagos.

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Devakumar disclosed that the refinery would be financed through a combination of internally generated cash, bonds, and proceeds from the company’s planned initial public offering.

He, however, declined to state the exact cost of the project, saying it would be comparable to that of the Lagos refinery. The Lagos refinery, built by Aliko Dangote, eventually cost more than $20bn before commencing operations in 2024.

Reuters reported that the project was initially estimated at about $9bn in 2013, but costs escalated following the relocation of the site, engineering challenges, currency weakness, the COVID-19 pandemic and global inflation.

The investment comes as Dangote is simultaneously pursuing another ambitious expansion programme in Nigeria, where the capacity of the Lagos refinery is being doubled from 700,000 barrels per day to 1.4 million barrels per day by 2028. Once completed, the Nigerian complex is expected to become one of the world’s largest refining facilities.

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Dangote Industries Limited has also unveiled plans to increase its combined refining capacity to 2.1 million barrels per day across Nigeria and Kenya as part of its long-term strategy to expand its footprint across Africa.

Edwin disclosed this during a recent visit by a delegation from the Republic of the Congo’s national oil company, Société Nationale des Pétroles du Congo, to the Dangote Petroleum Refinery in Lagos.

He said the expansion would raise the group’s total refining capacity to 2.1 million barrels per day, comprising 1.4 million barrels per day in Nigeria and the planned 700,000-barrels-per-day refining complex in Kenya to serve East African markets.

He also disclosed plans by the group to invest an additional $46bn between 2026 and 2028 across its refining, cement and fertiliser businesses as part of its drive to accelerate industrialisation across Africa.

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The proposed Kenyan refinery reflects a growing recognition across Africa that local refining has become increasingly critical to energy security, foreign exchange conservation, and industrial development.

For decades, despite producing millions of barrels of crude oil daily, Africa has remained heavily dependent on imported refined petroleum products because of inadequate refining capacity.

Data show that while Africa contributes about seven per cent of global crude oil production, refining capacity across the continent declined by roughly one-third over the past two decades as ageing refineries suffered years of underinvestment, operational inefficiencies and poor maintenance.

The commissioning of the Dangote refinery has begun to reverse that trend. The refinery reached full operational capacity shortly before the recent Middle East tensions involving Iran, helping Nigeria significantly reduce its dependence on imported petrol and other refined products while improving domestic fuel availability.

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Its success has renewed interest among African governments and private investors seeking to replicate the model in other parts of the continent. Beyond Kenya, several countries are now pursuing similar projects to strengthen their domestic refining industries.

In Mozambique, Nigerian businessman Benedict Peters has indicated interest in developing a proposed 200,000-barrel-per-day refinery, while Uganda is advancing plans to construct a 60,000-barrel-per-day refinery to meet domestic demand and supply neighbouring markets in Kenya and Tanzania.

According to the African Petroleum Producers’ Organisation, Africa currently exports about three-quarters of the crude oil it produces while importing approximately 70 per cent of the refined petroleum products consumed across the continent.

This imbalance has continued to expose African economies to volatile international fuel prices, high transportation costs, and foreign exchange pressures.

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The proposed Kenyan refinery is therefore expected not only to strengthen East Africa’s energy security but also to deepen regional trade in refined petroleum products, reduce import dependence and stimulate industrialisation across the region.

Africa possesses abundant crude oil reserves but has historically lacked sufficient refining infrastructure to process its production locally. As a result, many oil-producing countries export crude oil and import expensive refined petroleum products, exposing their economies to global supply disruptions and price volatility.

The commissioning of the 650,000-barrel-per-day Dangote Petroleum Refinery in Nigeria marked a major shift in the continent’s refining landscape, boosting local fuel production and encouraging governments across Africa to prioritise investments in domestic refining capacity.

The proposed Kenyan refinery represents one of the continent’s most ambitious downstream projects and could significantly reshape fuel supply dynamics in East Africa while advancing the African Union’s broader agenda of industrialisation and regional energy integration.

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